Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers what will ultimately be an interesting take on identifying and prioritizing needs for the upcoming offseason.
Identifying and prioritizing needs
Entering the summer of 2018, here is a targeted and prioritized list of needs:
1) An upgrade at the goalie position
The Hurricanes were significantly below the league average by just about any metric imaginable (again) for the 2017-18 season. Adding a goalie capable of being at least league average and ideally even better represented the biggest upgrade possible through a single roster position.
2) Adding a top 6 scoring forward capable of (IMPORTANT) driving offense not just being a complementary player
My math says that the Hurricanes are 7 deep for sure in terms of top 9 forwards (Aho, Tervainen, Staal, Lindholm, Skinner, Rask, Williams) with a few higher-end forward prospects capable of rising up early and a few other depth forwards who have the potential to be serviceable in a top 9 slot.
There is a case to be made for incrementally boosting the team’s scoring by improving the last 3-4 forwards. But as I have written before, there is a limit to boosting depth scoring. The last three forwards are always going to get less ice time than the top 3-6 forwards, and more significantly, there really are only 6 forward power play slots. (And putting forwards on the points can boost forward scoring, but it is largely at the expense of decreasing defensemen scoring at that point.) Put more simply, there is a fairly low ceiling for how much one can expect even from a good player playing in a #10-12 slot because of ice time issues.
With a limited number of roster spots and bullets to be fired adding players this summer, the second biggest bang the team can get for his buck is adding a top 6 forward who is capable of 55+ points and equally importantly capable of helping boost his two line mates to higher totals too.
3) Adding one more defenseman
With a second pairing that was ‘meh’ at best in 2017-18, the team will be rolling the dice on improvement from within again if it does not add one more proven defenseman.
What he is able to do given market circumstances for #2 is at the top of my summer watch list, but more so what Francis decides to do with #3 is also pretty high on my list.
The optimistic view has Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce anchored into the top 4 somewhere doing exactly what they did in 2017-18 maybe with just a bit more offense. The second half of the top 4 requires cherry picking only the best chunk of 20-30 games from Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin’s 2017-18 seasons and then counting on both to reproduce that for much closer to 82 games. If that does not happen, right now there is no one with NHL experience who would qualify as a reasonably probable plan B to fill out the top 4.
While it is definitely possible that Hanifin and Faulk take a step up, betting the 2017-18 season on going two for two on those bets with no other option is much more risky than most think.
4) Picking up a depth player or two
Depending on what is left for budget, the team could choose to selectively and inexpensively add another depth player or two.
So here is where it gets interesting. This is not an article written for 2017-18. It is actually my leading article for last season’s offseason series which you can find HERE. I pulled only the main section with the priority list and had to change years, take out names like Ron Francis, Ron Hainsey, etc. and had to eliminate a couple paragraphs that went into player details which have changed. But the 4 bullets are verbatim from last summer, and the vast majority of the text also carried forward pretty well from last year.
I would say that #4 has changed a bit, as this summer the team looks to be more capable of upgrading with youth. I would also add that a change in mentality, moxy or whatever has also risen up as a significant need. But #1 to #3 are still pretty much dead on in this deja vu/plagiarism version of charting the course for the summer ahead.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Did anyone get an inkling that something was wrong with this article before I said so?
2) Do you agree that the situation this summer is eerily similar to last summer?
3) Free for all discussion on the summer ahead…
Go Canes!
1. No.
2. It’s pretty much the 9th summer of deja vu.
3. It’s only 17 days till we draft Svechnikov
^This^
The only bad thing about our current situation is that fans are tired of losing. That’s about it. We get Svech, we bring in a vet on defense, and pick another goalie to pair with Darling, and we go again.
Then again if we miss the playoffs again, I’m prepared to bet that I will be one of the only ones who doesn’t care. Par for the course.
‘
It is a bit depressing when you say the team needs are to get a #1 goalie, a top 6 forward who drives offense, and adding top 4 defense. That’s… a lot. And yes, it does feel familiar.
Something felt off to me when there was no mention of the pending #2 pick (also you left in one reference to Francis), which I think does change the math a little bit. It seems all but certain that Canes will get the top forward in the draft, and suddenly it feels like we might be adding a top 6 forward who can drive offense. That’s putting a lot of stock in a rookie, but recent history of top forwards taken suggests that it’s warranted.
The goalie situation is just a mess. Darling got 3 more years on his contract and they can’t even count on him to be a serviceable backup. Ward would be a great backup, but I don’t see how they bring him back unless they buy out Darling.
Where they may have been dangling Skinner or Faulk for top 6 forward prior to getting #2 pick, perhaps now the Canes should be offering them for trades for goalies (i.e. Grubauer).
1) It just shows that almost all of us were not any smarter than RF because 1) and 2) were definitely addressed. Honestly, the very large consensus was that Darling was a huge (pun intended) upgrade. We were all wrong. Williams produced 51 points, seemed to improve McGinn’s offensive abilities, provided leadership. So that is what everyone wanted–right. We added veterans and don’t forget that throughout the preseason and the first 10 games or so I (and most of the others on this and other Canes-related sites) was singing the praises of the Nordstrom/Kruger/Jooris line. They were the “best fourth line in hockey.” So not so much deja vu as BOY WAS I WRONG.
Matt you do get credit for stating some cautionary concerns with Darling moving from back-up to starter. Though you also sang some mighty praises from Summerfest and preseason.
2) Not really. Some of the shortcomings were likely due to BP. Look at the power play %, save %, and Corsi for the Canadian world championship team. They are eerily familiar. I was a vociferous critic of Marcoux as a big reason for the goaltending problems, but there is now some evidence that part of the issue was the system run by BP. That is not all or even most of the answer, but it is likely enough that if RBA installs something significantly different, then the problems may be less apocalyptic then they seem.
3) Someone shared the Chicago farewell to Darling last year–his story is truly inspirational. He has overcome every obstacle (many of which he constructed before moving past them) to become an NHL goalie. I may be a minority of one, but I think he ends up being who we think we acquired at this time last year.
Much that was good in 16-17 either was only average (Pesce and Slavin; Skinner’s goal-scoring) or was poor (penalty kill). A little regression to the mean would go a long way in making the team better. Adding the 2OA will be a big boost. Every team in the past 6 years (except Buffalo–and I refuse to believe Carolina mirrors Buffalo) who received that pick improved. Several of the prospects spent a year developing and had success in Charlotte or in Bean’s case the CHL.
This is where the deja vu occurs. I wrote at the beginning of last season that 4 or so things out of 7 had to go right for the Canes to have a successful year. That is pretty much true again. But I need to be honest an admit that some things won’t go as well as 17-18. Maybe Aho or TT don’t score as much, or maybe TVR is less solid, or maybe Williams shows his age more than last year.
In the end, the season will be determined by a dozen or so factors. The Canes need to do the right things to make sure that 8-10 of those things go better.
1) Yes, when I got to 4) add a depth forward or two. That and no mention of Svechnikov caused deja vu.
2) Not sure. No goalie had good statistics in BPs system. CTs post showed up after I logged in to post, and he expressed the same thought. The goalie save percentage is a function of team defense and the BP system suppressed bad Shots at the expense of giving up high percentage shots.
3) I am most looking forward to Svechnikov getting a good nickname. I respectfully request something that I can spell that doesn’t sound like a respiratory ailment.
The title of the article was a bit of a giveaway, and there is a lingering mention of GM Francis, which provides an additional clue.
But the needs of the team haven’t changed, primarily due to Darlings awful performance last year. If we can find a more capable backup and Darling can add another obstacle overcome to his path this team could have a much firmer backend, enough of the bubble butts.
The team does have the #2 pick, a bright spot in a perannual shortage of quality forwards.
Supposedly the team has deeper pockets for fulfilling its needs, though so far the new owner seems to be doubling down on penny pinching rather than making a splash.
But hopefully the canes can become the new Jets, they turned around their fortunes pretty fast, though they had a bigger core of veterans to build around.
1. It took me in the second bullet point when there was no mention of #2OA or Necas, and Rask was included in the top-9. Was sure of it when I saw the Francis slip in bullet 3.
2. Our goaltending issues are very similar and this is the one area I am most nervous about as I have no idea what they are going to do to solve it.
We definitely need more consistency on the blue line whether that means our current group playing up to their potential or adding another top-4 vet to the mix.
The forward group I am slightly less concerned about. We definitely aren’t short on depth this year as we have 4-5 prospects with a good shot of making the roster this year. If Aho and TT can produce at a similar (and hopefully greater) pace and #2OA (hopefully Svech) does what other recent top forwards have done we will be in much better shape. Skinner is still a question mark but I think if he is moved it will be in a hockey trade for another player to plug in to the top-6. Hopefully RBA gets this group fired up and ready to compete for a full 60 minutes every game.
3. I’m ready for the draft to get here so I can stop reading ridiculous predictions and trade proposals for the #2 pick (not on this site). 17 more days but who’s counting….
Maybe we can be like the old Quebec Nordiques. In 1991, the Nordiques were so bad that they had the number one pick for the third year in a row (no lottery back then; if they had the first pick it was because they had the league’s worst won-lost record).
The most highly regarded prospect was Eric Lindros. He was considered to be the best all-around player and a leader. But, he announced that he would not play for the Nordiques under any circumstances.
The Nordiques selected him anyway and then announced their intention to trade him. Better than half the NHL submitted bids including multiple players, picks, and prospects.
The Nordiques selected the bid from my beloved Flyers. The Nordiques took what the Flyers gave them (among the prospects was Peter Forsberg) and made some trades (acquiring, among others, Patrick Roy) and went on to relocate to Colorado and to win two Stanley Cups with the team they had built.
One of the core players the Nordiques already had when they traded Lindros was a young man named Joe Sakic. Could this experience have guided him to perpetrate the scam on the hapless Ottawa Senators with savior scoring catalyst Matt Duchene?
And Eric Lindros? He went on to a successful career with the Flyers. He even won a Hart trophy (MVP). But while he took them to the finals once, he and his team failed to win the Stanley Cup.
The decision Hudson Elynuik made to go back to the draft rather than sign with my beloved Canes made this very real to me. What if, when we use the No.2 pick to select him, Tkachuk or the Russian kid refuses to play for us?Hopefully, we will be able to make a series of deals like the Nordiques did.
There’s a picture on Canes twitter of Svech next to RBA lifting the cup. I doubt he’s going to refuse to play with us.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/De8l-wXX4AAun84?format=jpg&name=medium
Anything is possible, though I tend to think the vetting process is more in-depth nowadays to know whether a pending draft pick wants to play for your club.
Besides 2OA, the biggest decision I feel is on goaltending. Never have been a fan of split starts (sort of reminds me of co-captains). So the question becomes does DW want to trade and pay for a seasoned workhorse who has proven to play 50+ games per season (guys like Schneider, Howard, Varlamov, Anderson, Halak, Lehner) some may be available via trade but may cost more in return. Or does he choose to bring in a tender to play 25+ games with strong save percentage (such as Hutton, Saros, Grubauer, Bernier, Dell…the pickings in this case are likely plentiful and you’d have a goalie battle w/Darling).
In the end, I think we need to bring in the workhorse and make a serious offer to land a ‘Schneider’ type in order to end the starting crease discussion. I would then draft Svechnikov and make a true push to sign Kovalchuk (DW and Dudley may be able to get his attention based on history). We can then still trade a player or two and get assets to backfill the defense. That could be enough spark.
We did – and then we didn’t – make the upgrades you indicated last summer.
Your focus last summer, and suggested this summer, is on the individual players and on “slots”. I think that is a mistake this summer – with the promise of change we don’t really know we will have on the roster. And I am more of the thought who is going to leave and who will return.
More importantly, though, last season’s team was better than the 2016-17 team. Yet the results were much worse, even if the W-L record was comparable. CT makes the right comments about BP’s system being flawed, nevermind BP losing the team. Add breakdowns in the defensive zone leading too an inordinate number of high-quality chances and issues crossing the neutral zone which seemed much worse this past season. It’s less about individual parts than getting those parts to work well together. It’s about the culture.
I think you’re spot on tj. I am optimistic that next year will be different, regardless of possible personnel changes, as long as we can find our way to at least league average goaltending.
On the goaltending, as bad as it was, can only get better. Scott Darling is either going to be better next year or replaced with someone who would have a hard time being worse. And while Cam Ward played admirably, he’s likely not coming back and his replacement doesn’t have that high a bar to clear. It’s always possible, but it’s hard to imagine that it can really get much worse than it was last year, which means that it’s much more likely to be better.
I am also more of the thought of who is going to leave and who will return. It’s anybody’s guess so pointless to talk about slots. And I also agree that last year’s team was better even with a worse record; we just couldn’t get out of our own way. Agree, let’s get the parts to work together better, whichever parts we’ll have after the first week of July when most of the dust has settled.
And thx for saving me from posting a lame comment which wasn’t going to be nearly as good as yours was.
You do the same for me more often than you know! 🙂
So I think we’ve all but called Svech’s name on the 22nd:
https://twitter.com/nhlcanes/status/1004063018223718400?s=21
Pretty overt to post a picture of the top forward draft prospect standing in front of a picture of our head coach hoisting the Cup…
Talking about goaltending – I finally took a look at the regular season fancy stats from Corsica.
In terms of high-danger save percentage Darling was in the lower third of goalies who had at least 900 minutes TOI at 77.8%. Still that was higher than Murray, Fleury, Holtby. At low-danger he came in 48 out of 53 – but still higher than Murray. And medium-danger he was in the same position – but that is where Fleury shined – being third.
I will have to think more about this in order to process/interpret better.
Very interesting.