On Tuesday night at PNC Arena against the Philadelphia Flyers, the Carolina Hurricanes will play what is probably the closest thing to a must-win game thus far in the 2017-18 season. Over the weekend, the Hurricanes suffered two deflating losses that seemed to have a much bigger negative effect than simply missing out on four points. Coach Bill Peters followed the second loss with a seething press conference that alleged that changes would be made before Tuesday’s game. He then bag skated the team in Monday’s practice. And now here we are…Tuesday morning before a huge game. A win will not instantly put all of the team’s issues in the past, but it will put the Hurricanes either in a playoff spot or within a point of it and ahead of a pack of teams also with their own issues. At that point, it will be much easier to look forward rather than backward. But with a loss, the Hurricanes will fall two points farther off the pace, stretch their losing streak to three straight home games and continue on a path that looks eerily similar to the string of playoff misses in recent years.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe starts the process of charting the series of events that have the team where it is now. Part 1 starts by recapping and assessing Francis’ moves during the offseason.
Assessing the needs
In the post-season press conference shortly after the conclusion of the 2017-18 season, Ron Francis identified three needs — goaltending, a scorer and a third pairing defenseman. In May, I started my series of articles on the offseason needs with a similar list but with one subtle but increasingly significant difference. Whereas Francis defined the forward need fairly generally as being a 20-goal scorer, I used the terminology “capable of driving offense not just being a complementary player.”
Addressing the top priority – Scott Darling
The single biggest need last summer was adding a goalie capable of being at least a league average starter. Francis acted early in this regard adding Scott Darling via trade and then pretty quickly signing him to a four-year deal. In my article with first impressions on Scott Darling, I noted reservations with lack of experience and more specifically lack of experience as a #1.
Things may change over the course of the four years for which Scott Darling is currently signed, but I think it is fair to say that through two-thirds of the 2017-18 season, the move has failed. That bears out in my analysis that shows the Hurricanes losing the game of goalie musical chairs to the other four teams who also added a starting goalie this summer.
Adding a forward – Justin Williams
On July 1 in comments made on the video board at PNC Arena during the prospects week scrimmage game, Francis made reference to a certain center (implied to be Matt Duchene) costing too much. Then shortly thereafter it was announced that the Hurricanes had signed free agent Justin Williams to a two-year contract. The move was the feel-good variety bringing back a player with Cup history and equally importantly the signal that the signing sent in terms of playing to win in 2017-18.
By my assessment, Williams has been a positive as a two-way player and locker room leader. But if you go with the assumption that Williams was the one big budget item that he could afford, the move maybe comes up short in two regards. First, I would not consider Williams to be the “catalyst” that I hoped for. He is a very good all-around player and capable of scoring, but if you started from his 24 goals and 48 points in 2016-17 with the Capitals who were an offensive juggernaut and then downgraded from there, Williams figured to be the equivalent of another 40+ point depth scorer. Second, I think the team missed the boat on fully leveraging the potential for Williams to lead a culture and attitude change when the team went with the old guard in naming captains. After the announcement of Jordan Staal and Justin Faulk as co-captains, I stated my preference for Justin Williams with words that could be equally appropriate for today — “I just think the team needs a sudden and stark shift in mindset.”
Thus far, I think Justin Williams has performed about as one might have hoped in July. On the positive side, he has been a solid two-way player and has helped in adding another leader and locker room presence. On the negative side, his current pace for 14 goals and 50 points represents another depth scorer who does not significantly boost the offense to another level. In addition, I think the team minimized what he might have brought in terms of a culture shift when Williams was left on the outside of the formal leadership ranks.
Filling out the bottom part of the lineup – Marcus Kruger, Josh Jooris and Trevor van Riemsdyk
Following on Bill Peters’ comments at the end of year press conference that suggested a preference for proven NHL players, Francis also built out the majority of the bottom part of the roster during the summer instead of leaving more room for spots to be won by youth. In what was arguably his best move of the offseason, Francis acquired Trevor van Riemsdyk to provide a sound and proven player for the third defense pairing. And Francis also added veteran checking line forwards Josh Jooris and Marcus Kruger to go with Joakim Nordstrom and fill out the fourth line with proven NHLers.
On the topic of filling out the roster, I noted the following from the end of season press conference:
Peters followed up on the theme of needing to add players from outside the organization a couple times. When talking about the Metropolitan Division in 2016-17, Peters said, “The pieces need to come in to close that gap. If we think guys from the American League (AHL) are going to come n and close that gap, it’s not happening in my opinion as the coach. He later followed that comment up by saying, “I don’t want to put a guy in a situation hoping without knowing. I want to know that he’s capable of playing that position. We have specific needs. If we can fill those specific needs, then you don’t have to jam a guy in there.”
And that is exactly what Francis did. He filled the bottom of the forward roster with a couple proven players.
To date, I do not think that has worked out. Increasingly, I am hearing similar opinions elsewhere, but I wrote about concerns about the fourth line and its role in some detail on December 29. In short, the team is getting virtually nothing in terms of offensive production from the fourth line. If the team was top-heavy scoring-wise perhaps this would not be a big deal, but for a team struggling to score enough receiving nothing from the fourth line just makes for another deficit to be made up. Further, I did a reasonably deep dive on the team’s penalty kill woes in my January 3 article. In short, the fourth line has been a minus in terms of scoring and has also played a key role in a penalty kill that is below league average. Interestingly, the penalty kill seemed to perform better when Kruger was on the shelf with an injury.
Evaluating the moves
Scott Darling: Put simply, through 53 games, Ron Francis’ selection of Scott Darling to fill the goaltending need has not worked out.
Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris: Though not as glaring, I would also say that the depth forward additions have not worked out. This miss is arguably as much about strategy and stubbornness as it is about personnel. Despite getting nothing for scoring from the fourth line and sub-par penalty killing to boot, Peters remains committed to the group. With players who project to be defensively capable in Charlotte but with significant scoring upside in Lucas Wallmark and Warren Foegele, one has to wonder if the biggest error in the end is simply stubbornness and ignoring results.
Justin Williams: In my opinion, Williams is the most interesting case. At the most basic level, I think that the Hurricanes are a better team with him than without him. I also believe that his leadership has been a positive. But if I only had budget for one big forward addition, I continue to think the priority should have been adding a player capable of being an offensive catalyst. Further, I think the Hurricanes failed to maximize the jolt that Williams could have provided in terms of changing the attitude and culture when the team made Jordan Staal and Justin Faulk co-captains. So while Williams is a net positive, if you go with the assumption that Francis had budget for one higher-end forward, I think he failed to address the most pressing need.
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Of Francis’ offseason moves, I think the addition of Trevor van Riemsdyk scores highest. Van Riemsdyk both addresses a specific need and has filled it successfully during the 2017-18 season.
When one nets it out, maybe it should not be so surprising that the Hurricanes are roughly where they were at this time last year and also seemingly on the brink of a final tumble to miss the playoffs just like last year. The move to address goaltending which was the top priority has not panned out. Instead of directly addressing the need to add more scoring with a maximum player, Francis went a slightly different directly adding a good player but not so much a pure offensive catalyst. Finally, Francis mostly missed in terms of improving the fourth line by building it out with a new set of veterans. When one adds it up, aside from solidifying the third defense pairing which I would have considered priority #3, the team really has not successfully addressed its top two deficiencies from last season. Perhpas it should not be a surprise that the team is in a similar position.
What say you Canes fans?
Maybe impacted by the recent down swing, am I being too harsh in grading Francis’ offseason work?
Go Canes!
I think your analysis, as always, is spot on.
While I don’t blame RF directly for Darlings misfortunes I think he made the same mistake as with Lack )signing an unproven #1 goalie with a couple of good seasons to a lucrative contract, trying to save the extra million or so over a proven starter. We didn’t necessarily see it coming either and I also thought it was an exciting move back then. But, as our friend Puck God would say, that was, in retrospect, a penny wise and pound foolish decision.
The first glaring mistake, in y mind, was signing JW but not making him a captain. HE was brought in for leadership. One could tell, from his interviews, that he expected to be given the C and a chance to take his old team on his sholders and pull it back cupwards. That was a clear sign of bad judgment, oddly from a guy who was such a fantastic player and captain in his own right.
The 4th line signings remain a mystery to me. I thought the JJ was the worst signing, but have since changed my mind and put him as the only 4th line signing that can be called at least a moderate success.
JJ has the grit and he chips in a couple of goals. Kruger is an all around disappointment, the loyalty to PDG is inexplicable and Nordstrom, as much as I like his drive and work ethic, simply has to score more goals.
In the meantime we see teams lie Pit bringing up a bunch of their young guys and getting contributions from them, while our guys linger down in clt. I know BP comes from the Red Wings culture of nearly over seasoning young players, a strategy that worked well for the Wings, but the league is changing, getting younger and faster, and holding on to grissly veterans is not a strategy for success. I find that the most puzzling player management decision this year, especially in the second half of a back to back when the team is tired, has been traveling, and desperately needs an injection of fresh legs and enthusiasm.
TVR is performing as a solid player for us, on a cheap contract, that is a move I applaud as RF’s best.
Breezy, I agree with you on all your points.
Matt. The great thing about counterfactuals is that multiple ones can explain a current situation. What you state above is very reasonable.
Darling has underperformed everyone’s expectations.
But in light of other expectations, there’s an argument that Williams has worked out well. My expectations (and others’) before this season were that our “stars” would produce like they had in previous seasons and that one would have a breakthrough year. Yet Skinner is not on pace for 30-35 goals, much less the 40 some mentioned. Faulk likewise is having one of his least productive years. To this point in the season those two having typical years would mean 12 more goals so far. That is likely 4 points in the standings.
Then consider RF’s offseason move everyone agreed was brilliant— locking up Slavin. Caniacs were mentioning Norris top five. That equates to 10-12 goals and 45 points. If Slavin were on that pace, then there would be another 2-3 points in the standings.
With 5-7 more points in the standings would the fourth line be an issue? Or would the captain matter? Now there is a counter to this counterfactual—that Williams would increase Skinner and Faulk’s shooting percentage. But that is a stretch.
Underperformance is a real issue for Carolina relative to preseason expectations. But outside Darling it is as much on holdovers as acquisitions.
Ct, you have looked at things from a different angle and, as usual, your logic makes sense. RF tried to improve by adding players to upgrade LAST YEARS shortcomings. Great idea except he didn’t take into account for the falloff in production in areas that appeared, based upon LAST YEAR’S performances. I don’t fault him for those mistakes so much, it’s not showing any initiative and flexability to aggressively react to additional needs as they arise. For example, the revised fourth line hasn’t worked out. This is one area that should be very easy to bolster or at least make attempts to further bolster. For example, any three forwards you could call up from Charlotte I would venture to say would improve that line. Sure, you would have to expose DiG, Nordy, and Kruger to waivers. So what if they are claimed. They are not meeting our needs.
Matt, to answer your query…NO YOU AREN’T BEING TOO HARSH!
…to the contrary RF has been cheap WHERE IT COUNTS and WASTEFUL ON THE GAMBLE THAT DARLING WAS A LEGITIMATE STARTER!
He doesn’t show any evidence of understanding WHO IS A GOOD GOALIE, or ever was, or ever will be…!??
Even if he were a good judge of talent (clearly that has NOT BEEN THE CASE) his frugality/ cheapness/ miserly SCROOGE-NESS, has eliminated any chance of building a dominate team…
With the darth of scoring…and INACTION OF RF…nothing looks at all promising, let alone encouraging…FOR AS FAR AS I CAN SEE?
Tom…the ball is in your court, and IT’S NOT EVEN A TOUGH CALL…
I don’t know about “too harsh” but some acquisitions haven’t worked out as expected/hoped (Jooris, Kruger, Darling) – in other cases it is a matter of usage, and I look at Peters for that. I think Jooris has been solid when he is on ice, but he rarely is these days. Kruger just hasn’t been the 4th line center we were expecting – JMac did it better (both 5×5 and PK). I still think Darling will turn it around – maybe not find his “A” game this season but be improved. He was the best player on ice, IMO, against Detroit.
Peters/Francis reluctance to bring players up from Charlotte this season baffles me, but that has nothing to do with the assessment of RF last summer except for his reliance on signing vets rather than having spots open/available for young guns. On a related note, I read a great article yesterday or the day before that talked about the sport’s reliance on overpaying vets and underutilizing underpaid younger players – a product of the CBA and the CHL/NHL agreement, effectively.
There is no max center we were going to get last summer for a reasonable price – although hindsight offers the notion that Faulk for Duchene might have been a good deal. The search for the max center is almost mythical – there simply aren’t enough to go around the league and teams hold onto theirs.
I think overall RF did a solid job – even if the players haven’t panned out. And as ct points out, underperformance isn’t just a characteristic of the the new arrivals.
It’s always easy to look backwards and second-guess decisions that were made at the time. I think many of us are trying to rewrite history a bit.
1/ Of all the goaltenders available, I think the general consensus around here was that Darling was who we wanted, and then we got him. He’s clearly gotten off to a slow start, but rewinding the clock now doesn’t mean any of us would have chose anyone else at the time. Maybe extending him was an issue, but he was an UFA and could have walked without a reasonable #1 goalie contract.
2/ JW has been everything we hoped he’d be except he wasn’t named captain. That’s not his fault. Of the offensive players available on July 1, who would anyone rather have for the the price and term? As far as I can tell, we got the best option. Only Radulov and Marleau come close, and both were given way too much term. And by the way, the price for Duchene was very high; I personally don’t think he was worth what OTT gave up.
3/ JvR has been excellent by almost any standard for a 3rd-pairing dman; a 2nd was a very fair price.
4/ We hoped Kruger would relieve JStaal of some defensive responsibility and to some degree he has 5×5, but our PK has regressed. Hard to pin that all on him, but he is expensive for his production so far. This to me is the biggest “miss” of the last offseason.
5/ Jooris has generally been good when he’s played and is only a depth forward. I have no idea why he doesn’t play more.
I agree with raleightj, the real difference this season hasn’t been low production from the players we went out and got, it’s been the lower production from the players we were expecting to carry the team: Skinner, Faulk, Rask, and even to some degree Slavin. Maybe we were too focused on creating a shut-down 4th line like in years past, but that worked for us over the past two years, especially when you throw in our league-leading PK. I don’t have a problem with trying to rebuild our 4th line; I only have a problem with sticking a little too long with something that hasn’t worked.
I also agree that the two things I have the hardest time figuring out are naming two co-Captains and not testing the waters with our depth in CLT. These are just head-scratchers to me.
Agree with the above posters that our biggest faults have not been the acquisitions but a let down of our core.
One thing to think about is if we had more goal scoring (as we all expected), how would Darling look now? Goal scoring help would have some what minimized his mistakes and could have allowed his confidence to build instead of sink to the point it is now.
Of course I still can’t understand the two Captain thing. I thought Skinny should have gotten it because I was of the opinion that JW would have the room anyway just by his resume and personality. And the way Skinny stepped up after Eric left and the way the players seemed to respond to him. I believe (of course I will never know for sure) that the captain thing hurt him. Never did I think Staal or Faulk were captain material… especially not both!
On another note, is it just me or does Skinny look too skinny? Looking at his interviews (when he gets them which is rarely now) he seems skinnier each time. Hope he is well!
Re the acquisition of Darling. I applauded that move and I still think he is the best option available to us since we have no talent ready in the minors. Despite any warts either Darling or Ward my or may not have, our losses have resulted MORE from the total lack of offense. It must be demoralizing to both goalies and puts a lot of extra pressure on both to know that when they give up that first goal, that for all practical purposes the game is over and they are going to lose.
IMO the goalies are not the problem (this coming from me who has in the past criticized Ward unmercifully). Continually giving shooters open shots from in the slot area from 3 to 15 feet out is the problem. The shooter will score 90% of the time on any goalie in the league if he hits the net. No goalie can react fast enough if the shot just doesn’t hit him where he stands. Look at the first two San Jose goals in the last game. In each case a Shark was standing totally alone immediately in front of Ward when they got the puck. They both had all day to deke or make whatever other moves they wanted to make to score. How many times have we seen the late man following the play into the offensive zone just skates down the middle of the ice and receives the puck with a wide open blast from 15 feet out in the slot?
Tighten up defensively and score more than 1 or 2 goals will remedy most of our problems and the goalies will take care of the rest and at least get us to the playoffs. Is this possible? Just get Skinner and Faulk back on track to match their goal scoring of last year would be a big step I the right direction. Get Skinner to play on defense with the passion and relentlessness that he did last year would help. Just playing Jooris on the 4th line would double the goal production from that entire line (he has 3 goals, Nordy, DiG and Kruger have 3 or 4 total).
ALL the rest of you who contribute to this site have made suggestions which are worthwhile to try (most better than mine). Most of you (including puckgod)have been very fair in not focusing on the failure of RF’s moves, but have focused on suggesting remedies and if you are critical it has been because no actions seem to being taken to do anything to remedy our problems.
Well, Darling’s play has been pretty awful this season. There is no sugar coating that, especially the really bad goals he has let in (shots from way out).
Of course we would have chosen differently if we could go back knowing how things were going to be, but then we’d all be billionaires from the stock market and be able to chip in to get some high priced upgrades.
And, as demoralizing as it may feel to not have the team in front of you score, Darling is not only a professional, he is getting paid more in one year than pretty much all of us will get paid over our entire careers, seriously, even if we started making a hundred grand at age 25 and work until 60 we’re still only at 3.5 mill.
I have a huge problem with the gross overpayments of athletes once they get their contracts signed. They are safe, I don’t even know if they have to show up to practice, worst case scenario (cough Semin cough) they go home and get paid two thirds of their salary for the remainder of their contracts.
There is just something fundamentally sickening about such arrangements.
But enough of that.
I still hope darling has a couple of good years in him. This season is toast for him, but hopefully he can rise above this challenge. He’s done it with some tough times in the past and we sure hope he can pull off another.