Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers Alex Nedeljkovic and his path to an NHL role given Canes crowded goalie situation.
Alex Nedeljkovic’s pedigree and history
Drafted 37th in the 2014 NHL draft, Alex Nedeljkovic’s selection was an aggressive move to add a goalie prospect with a reasonably high probability of reaching the NHL. Nedeljkovic had already established himself as a solid goalie in Canadian juniors before being drafted and had established himself as a player who always found a higher gear under pressure. After being drafted, Nedeljkovic followed up with two strong years of development. He posted more solid regular season numbers and more significantly showed big game capability in world tournaments against the best his age group and then also in the Ontario Hockey League playoffs. By the end of the 2015-16 season, Nedeljkovic had accomplished all that he could in preparing for a jump to the American Hockey League. But the 2016-17 season proved to be the first real bump in the road for Nedeljkovic. He struggled early on in the AHL and in total had a tough first season as a professional. Nedeljkovic’s 2017-18 season was not spectacular but he did make step-wise progress and at least build a foundation at the AHL level. That set the stage for a big step up for the 2018-19 season. Whereas the 2017-18 season was largely about Nedeljkovic benefiting from playing behind a great team, the 2018-19 season was about Nedeljkovic being the primary driver of his team’s success. Especially in the second half of the 2018-19 Nedeljkovic was the Checkers’ best player many nights. He followed that up with a strong playoff run that reestablished his reputation as a big game player. After a bumpy start in the AHL, Nedeljkovic exited the 2018-19 season back on track and seemingly ready to take the next step up to the NHL level.
The 2019-20 season minus the bigger picture and Hurricanes’ goalie collection
The summer has been a busy one at the goalie position. The Hurricanes brought back Petr Mrazek to be the starter and along the way added two other goalies who have the potential to figure in at the NHL level. In a masterful move, Don Waddell was able to offload Scott Darling’s contract in return for James Reimer. Reimer is a bit of a rebound play but at least has the chance to contribute for the Canes unlike Darling whose ship had sailed. The Hurricanes also added Anton Forsberg in the Calvin de Haan trade. I view Forsberg as a great depth addition at a position where such depth can be incredibly valuable.
The team’s moves no doubt impact Nedeljkovic’s role for the 2019-20 season, but I think an interesting starting point is considering what would be ideal for Nedeljkovic in the absence of these considerations. In an ideal world I think the Hurricanes would want to slot Nedeljkovic as an NHL backup slotted for at least 20 NHL starts with the ability to dial that up if/when Nedeljkovic proves capable at the NHL level. The perfect scenario would also offer the ability for Nedeljkovic to drop to the AHL level for more ice time and also possibly a confidence boost if his transition to the NHL level is bumpy.
The reality given the team’s situation and the minimum for Nedeljkovic’s development
The team’s situation does impact Nedeljkovic. I am on record as thinking that the team will at least start the 2019-20 season with James Reimer in the backup role at the NHL level if he is not traded before opening day. Such a start would give him the ability to rebound and possibly increase his trade value. If I am correct in this scenario, Nedeljkovic would resume his full-time role as a starter at the AHL level at least to begin the season, but the team would be looking for a way to get him some NHL ice time in 2019-20. So if Reimer falters or if an injury makes an opening at the NHL level, I would expect Nedeljkovic to not just be called up to the NHL but also to be thrust into action. A good outcome would be for Nedeljkovic to net about 15 starts at the NHL level in addition to a regular workload in the AHL. Even if maybe not ideal, that would be enough to take a next step development-wise and at least assess Nedeljkovic’s readiness for the NHL.
Contractual and NHL legalese considerations
Nedeljkovic’s current situation in terms of NHL legalese offers maximum flexibility for such a short-term development path. He is on a two-way contract, so the team saves money and pays and appropriate rate if Nedeljkovic plays in the AHL. In addition, he is still waivers exempt for the 2019-20 season, so he can move freely between the NHL and AHL without risk of being lost to a waiver claim.
But significantly, Nedeljkovic will not be waivers exempt come 2020-21. That means that the Hurricanes will need to keep him at the NHL level in 2020-21 or otherwise likely lose him for nothing. As such, it is critical that the Hurricanes be able to assess his NHL-readiness in 2019-20, so the team can feel comfortable slotting him as an NHL backup in 2020-21 when a return to the AHL is not as viable of an alternative.
The perfect outcome for 2019-20
The perfect outcome for the 2019-20 season would see Nedeljkovic pick up where he left off at the AHL level at the same time that James Reimer rebounds as a backup at the NHL level. Step two would be for an injury to make room for Nedeljkovic to get enough NHL starts to get his feet under him. Step three would be for Reimer to be dealt to a team in need of goalie help to make room for Nedeljkovic to make a permanent jump to the NHL level by the midway point of the season. That perfect storm would complete the series of moves to somehow unload Darling’s contract without paying to do so but still clearing a path for Nedeljkovic to the NHL level.
My two cents on Alex Nedeljkovic
Just like with any young goalie, Nedeljkovic is a wild card. The one thing I love about him is his mental makeup. He has the ‘it’ factor of a number one goalie. He has been at his best in high pressure international tournaments and playing for undermanned teams in the playoffs. From what he has accomplished at lower levels and also my read on his demeanor, he very much has the makings of an NHL goalie mentally. Especially for the goalie position, that is absolutely critical. My reservations with Nedeljkovic is his style and level of play. In limited NHL action in preseason, my assessment of him was that he was incredibly noisy in terms of movement which in general is a recipe for being too imperfect in terms of having a few small holes and also occasionally missing on angles or positioning. At the NHL level, that is almost always a recipe for being picked apart by NHLers who quickly figure out how to exploit even the smallest openings. Interestingly, I think the NHL version of Nedeljkovic looks pretty similar to Mrazek in that as a smaller goalie he will need to play an aggressive, challenging style that requires an emphasis on quickness and a bit of ‘scrambliness’ at times. In short, my last on-ice assessment of Nedeljkovic from training camp and preseason last year had some reservations. Based only on that, my best bet is that he would take some time and work to acclimate to the NHL level maybe somewhat like he did when transitioning to the AHL level. But since that assessment he posted a stellar AHL season and even stayed true to his pedigree and big game reputation in playing well in in his only NHL start in 2018-19. But regardless of trying to crystal ball the near-term and long-term future for Nedeljkovic he has very clearly reached a level where he needs an opportunity to sink or swim at the NHL level. And though the current situation could make that tricky, the team needs to find a way to give him NHL ice time in 2019-20 to further his development and provide a body of NHL work for assessment.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Based on his development path and strong 2018-19 season, how confident are you in Alex Nedeljkovic’s ability and readiness to be at least an NHL backup?
2) Given the Hurricanes current goalie situation, how would you managed that situation in total especially with regard to taking the next step with Nedeljkovic?
Go Canes!
1) At this time last year, I was not optimistic about Nedeljkovic. Like most fans I conflated sv% with overall goalie play. Two things changed that: 1. I bought AHL-TV and watched (and listened to the commentary) most of the Checkers games. Watching Ned play 50+ games and listening to Vellucci talk about his importance to the team convinced me that Ned is the real deal. 2. Matt, you wrote multiple times last season that “results matter.” It is undeniable that the team in front of Ned wins games. As I mentioned yesterday the Checkers have been 88-1-1 when leading after two periods the past two seasons. Simply winning that many games is impressive, but only once in 90 games not coming away with points is fantastic.
Another point I made yesterday is that Ned’s one NHL start is being discounted. If he had given up 5 goals, it would be taken as proof that he wasn’t ready. I admit that one win isn’t as telling as one loss, but if you go back and re-watch the Vancouver game you will see a team that believes in its goalie. That is doubly important given that a Canes loss would have meant they entered the All-Star break 1-3-1 in the their last 5 games. While that one game didn’t turn around the season, a loss could have meant the Canes never made the playoffs. In many ways it was bigger than “just one game,” and Ned excelled.
2) While obtaining Reimer for Darling is a “masterful move” in some senses, it might be a long-term negative. The Canes have three goalies who need the next step in their development. With Reimer as the backup in Raleigh and Forsberg pairing with Ned in Charlotte, all three goalies remain where they were in 18-19. While I don’t think more time in Charlotte is bad for Ned, there is little evidence that supports the idea that having multiple years in the ECHL will do anything other than stagnate the development of Helvig and Booth. Neither of those two goalies may ever make the NHL—which we lead many to argue that the organization was correct not to prioritize their development—but that is really looking at it after the fact. By having both Helvig and Booth face a lower level of competition again this season, they might be taken off a path to the NHL.
Whew. Long time away!
1) I’m skeptical that Ned can make the jump. He’s historically shown flashes of brilliance, and he’s also struggled when first adjusting to better competition. He’s a little undersized and will need to really be elite in terms of positioning and puck control in order to be a successful NHL goalie. I once heard that the difference for a starting level goalie jumping from Juniors to the AHL was allowing one goal a game. The difference jumping to the NHL? One goal a game. I predict he’ll get some games and may adjust with time, but it could be a bumpy road and we won’t know for sure until he plays.
2) Managing Ned starts with training camp. If he shows well in comparison to Reimer specifically, then I think he deserves to play a few games early. If they’re comparable and/or someone else steps up, he goes to the AHL with a motivating speech that he needs to grow to the point where they can’t keep him down anymore.
CTC makes a good point about Booth and Helvig. I don’t think either has looked great at the ECHL level, which may be the reason for the logjam, but it could be lousy defensive play in front of them. It’s tough to predict but I’m also wondering if they’ll have a chance to show what they’ve got at the AHL level. They both may be misses or need more time, but I doubt they grow more in the ECHL
We are a tough crowd.
Helvig actually had a top-10 season in the ECHL for goalies in their 21-year-old season. He moved Grubauer from 9th to 10th on that list. However, of those higher on the list there were not a lot of NHL players. Which I take to support my argument that another year in the ECHL is bad for development.
Booth already lost part of last season. He was getting AHL experience but then Darling was sent down.
Helvig did struggle after the first round of the playoffs but then Booth played really well. I would argue that each deserves time in the AHL this season.
Slightly off topic. Peter Karmanos sold the Plymouth Whalers in 2015. Nedjelkovic was the last of a long line of players on PKs junior team to be drafted by the Canes. (Ned began his play with the Whalers under then Whalers head coach Mike Vellucci in 2012.) There is an interesting sidebar story about Ned’s last year in juniors. Upon the sale of the Whalers the team became the Flint Firebirds, the new owner made the coach give additional playing time to his son. Soon after the coach was fired, the team walked out in protest and the league required the team to be resold. Ned ended his juniors career that season in Niagara. The connection of the Plymouth Whalers to the Canes is long and deep going way deeper than Chad LaRose.
At the risk of beating a dead horse, there are compelling reasons for an NHL team to be 3 deep in the goalie position. Ned’s contractual ability to move freely between the AHL and NHL and his readiness for success in the NHL make him the perfect 3 deep complement. Either an injury, or failure to thrive from Reimer will give Ned his shot for a full NHL evaluation. The team can prudently be patient for Ned’s opportunity to prove himself at the NHL level. A similar 3 deep goalie strategy worked pretty well for last season’s Stanley Cup Champions.
A questoin for those more knowledgable than me – how often do NHL teams break camp with the backup goalie beingg a rookie?
I look at players like Binnington and Murray who got (and seized) their chances only when injuries opened the door for them. I don’t see it being any different for Ned.
I am a big fan of Ned. He has the psychological “it” factor to be successdul. He is super-competitive and he rebounds quickly from a bad outing (I don’t think he had two bad outings in a row the past 2 seasons).
I remember talking with someone on the CLT staff a couple of years ago. To hear him talk, the consensue was that Ned is too small to make it in the NHL and that he may not get a real shot at it.
As you noted, Matt, he plays a very aggressive style, moving side to side, leaving the crease, playing the puck hard (he loves to score goals into an empty net). But I have seen that style of play open him up to errors in the AHL on numerous occasions, frequently with the puck ending up in the net behind him. That is a high-risk style of playing.
I really would love to see him get a legitimate shot to show what he can do at the NHL level.
FWIW Jordan Binninton is listed at 6’1′, 174lbs, Ned is listed at 6’0″, 190lbs, Matt Murray at 6’4″, 173lbs. and Petr Mrazek at 6′)’, 190lbs. An example of a rookie backup goalie was Garret Sparks at Toronto last season. (Curtis McElhinney hit the waiver wire because of Kyle Dubas’s decision to not lose Sparks to waivers.) Without casting any dispersions on Ned, Sparks was a failed backup option for the lLeafs. He also goaltended for the Calder Cup winning Marlies the previous season with the best goalie stats in the AHL. He is now with the Vegas Knights.
Thanks for the info on Sparks last season.
In 2005, my beloved Canes started the season with a starting goalkeeper who had never been a starter. Gerber had always been a backup keeper. His backup goalkeeper was an untested rookie. Cam Ward did a pretty good job (especially in the playoffs).
Great write-up and observations Matt!
1) Your comments regarding his next “step” with getting more starts is spot on in my opinion. Occasionally, a player might play so-so at certain levels (juniors / minors), but really turn it up on the bigger stage. Ned has appropriately acclimated himself on each competitive level. When he HAS seen time with Carolina, he has looked stellar. My thoughts are that he will answer to the task if and when called upon (as he has shown). The next key will be more starts and more playing time. Much more can be seen and evaluated with his ability to handle the pressure than with the occasional one-off appearances.
2) Another year “easing” in to more time will be important for Ned (and the goalie future as a whole for Carolina). The alignment they have this year (two goalies with significant NHL experience with Mrazek and Reimer) will allow him to do just that. As I said in a previous post, my hopes are that when an injury does occur (as generally happens from time to time with goalies), Ned will be brought up, and he will see more action than just riding the pine.