It is no secret that the Carolina Hurricanes will aim to make changes to a 2017-18 roster that was not good enough to make the playoffs. Tom Dundon said as much at the end of the season. And that direction simply makes sense given the need to improve and hopefully find a combination of changes that also help generate a winning culture. So the concept of the Hurricanes making most of the roster potentially available for the right price is not outlandish. But today when TSN’s Bob McKenzie put a spin on the situation that made it seem aggressive and borderline fire sale, the Twitter part of the Hurricanes hockey universe reacted.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe grabs the bull by the horns and identifies reasons to keep and reasons to trade not just depth players but rather a handful of players who would represent more significant deals.
Goalie
Scott Darling
With three years of contract at $4.1 million per season and coming off a really tough 2018-19 campaign, Scott Darling has negative trade value. As such, any deal would require that the Hurricanes retain salary and likely still pay in trade assets to unload Darling.
Reasons to keep: The cost to unload him is likely just to high right now. Keeping Darling for at least the 2018-19 season helps in two ways. First and ideal would be if he rebounded under Brind’Amour’s coaching regime, he could suddenly be worth at least most of his salary. With all of Anton Khudobin, Eddie Lack and to some degree Cam Ward struggling under Peters, there is at least a possibility that the coaching change helps. In addition, even if year two goes the same as year one, he would only have two years remaining on his contract this time next year which makes a trade or possibly buy out less costly.
Reasons to trade (or buy out): As far as making the 2018-19 playoffs, goaltending is high up the list of potential improvements that could make a difference and yield a return to the playoffs. Spending one of two NHL slots on Darling is at best a dice roll. If owner Tom Dundon is willing to eat a loss on Darling’s contract, I believe there are better options to fill an all-important goalie slot on the roster.
Defensemen
Noah Hanifin
Reasons to keep: Hanifin is 21 years old with elite skating ability, good NHL size and a ceiling that is very high. Trading him now risks riding through three learning years only to see another team reap huge rewards when Hanifin puts it all together and becomes a top 4 or even top 2 defenseman.
Reasons to trade: Despite all of the potential, his upside is really just that so far. He exited the 2017-18 season still as a third pairing defenseman who needed to be sounder to be more than a fill in or liability defensively as an every game top 4 defenseman. In addition, he is due for a new contract this summer. If he Hanifin gets paid for his draft pedigree, potential and improvement scoring-wise, he could enter the 2018-19 season as an incredibly expensive #5 defenseman still toting “potential” as his greatest calling card. The timing could be right to collect trade value for his upside before it starts to dissipate.
Justin Faulk
Reasons to keep: he is only one year removed from being a rare breed of defenseman who can pot goals like a forward. His run of 17, 16 and 15 goals in the three seasons prior to the 2017-18 season are elite blue line goal scoring in today’s NHL. In addition, he is a player who did reach a high level defensively, so the possibility to return to a high level defensively, rebound from a slower 2017-18 season scoring-wise and be a solid offensive top 4 defenseman is clearly there.
Reasons to trade: Faulk is 2+ years removed from being top 4 caliber on the defensive side of the puck and seems to be trending in the right direction. Based on his 2017-18 season and not projections, I would put Faulk somewhere in the neighborhood as Hanfin right now as a player who brings some offense but is really not more than a #5 defenseman on a good team because of defensive issues. With his escalating contract, Faulk is scheduled to be paid $6 million in each of the next two seasons before becoming an unrestricted free agent. Unless a rebound is expected, I think there is a case for just taking the best you can get to free up salary and a blue line roster slot.
Top defensemen who I do not see being moved
Remember that one challenge is finding enough legitimate top 4 defensemen right now. As such, I do not see the team moving Jaccob Slavin or Brett Pesce who have quickly established themselves as at least capable second pairing defensemen and have reasonable contracts to boot.
Forwards
Jeff Skinner
Reasons to keep: One of the team’s deficits in 2017-18 was pure goal scoring ability. As such, trading a player who finished second on the team in goal scoring with 24 in 2017-18 and had a whopping 37 goals a year before that seems like an odd part of addressing that situation. When one considers that he needs little help to score, he seems even more like a part of the solution rather than a part of the problem.
Reasons to trade: But the flip side of the Jeff Skinner coin is his 2017-18 relapse to a ‘gambling for goals’ style of play that saw him finish dead last on the team with a minus 27. I know we are not supposed to talk about plus/minus but as someone who watches the Hurricanes game in and game out, the eye test pretty much matched up as he regressed in terms of defensive play and decision-making. He is scheduled to become a free agent next summer, so if he is not part of the long-term plan, the time to act on that decision is sooner rather than later.
Victor Rask
Reasons to keep: Rask’s situation is a bit like Darling’s though not as extreme. Coming off a light season offensively, Rask is an expensive checking line center at $4 million per year exiting the 2017-18 season. But he does deserve some credit for maintaining his two-way play, so perhaps like Darling now is not a good to sell at an all-time low.
Reasons to trade: But because he is only 25 years old, sound defensively and with higher scoring totals in years past, there could be a market for him. If so, I think one could make the case that he is redundant with Jordan Staal and gives the Hurricanes one too many ‘not enough scoring’ type centers in its top 9. As such, if there is a deal to be made, there is a case for taking it.
Elias Lindholm
Reasons to keep: Though it took awhile, Lindholm has developed into a solid two-way player. As such, he is capable of being a decent, complementary player on any kind of line and also offers some flexibility as a right face-off man and center or right wing. Even if he does not emerge as a higher scorer, I think he is a legitimate top 9 NHL forward who is capable of filling a role on a good team.
Reasons to trade: If the offense just is not coming (and enough time has passed that this would be a reasonable projection), then he is really just a good depth forward. As such, he is the type of player who could be replaced. As such, if another team sees him as more than a depth forward and is willing to pay for it, just maybe you take the return and hope to back fill the slot from Charlotte.
Jordan Staal
Reasons to keep: Despite not being a true top 6 forward scoring-wise, I still believe that as a shutdown center who can eat up a ton of hard match ups/minutes that Staal is clearly more part of the solution than the problem. He anchors a line capable of lining up against other teams’ best players and breaking even. That would be hard to replace especially if the goal is to win now.
Reasons to trade: As a captain for a failed 2017-18 season, trading Staal would definitely represent a shake up. In addition, because of what he does defensively, I think Staal could have the greatest trade value of the players listed. As such, a what he could return in trade could be a significant contribution to a deeper rebuild.
Top forwards who I do not see being moved
Per the reports, Sebastian Aho is the only forward who is officially spared from the trade rumor mill. I think it is safe to put Teuvo Teravainen in that group too because of his chemistry and production playing alongside flag bearer Aho. Justin Williams should also be safe because of his leadership and ability to be Brind’Amour’s top lieutenant.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of the seven players listed do you see as most likely to be traded before the start of the 2018-19 season?
2) Which of the seven players listed would you be most unwilling to trade?
3) Pulling out your crystal ball, how do you think it all ends when the curtain closes on the upcoming offseason?
Go Canes!
1) I think Skinner closely followed by Faulk, perhaps both. These two players, rightly or not, represent the old Canes. So trading one or both is the most direct way to signal a culture change. Skinner and Faulk provide scoring, but with other roster players being replaced by newcomers with more offensive upside, the risk of moving Skinner and/or Faulk is not as great. Svechnikov as the First Forward Taken can conservatively be counted on for 20 goals–so while he plays the other side, from a scoresheet standpoint he will replace a good portion of Skinner’s role.
Moving Skinner/Faulk also would signal that RBA and company expect ALL the players to contribute both offensively and defensively.
2) Staal closely followed by Lindholm. The team is better with Staal on the ice–they may not be more dangerous from a scoring perspective, but he makes the other 4 skaters better.
I have made the comparison before: I think Lindholm could be this year’s Couturier. Play him at center with Svechnikov and 60 points is reasonable. Because he has become a responsible veteran at such a young age, he is worth more on the team than in a trade.
3) My crystal ball is cloudy. I can state what I would do. But as tj and a few others have written, I am concerned that the new ownership/management will overthink the 2nd pick or trade one of the key youngsters (Pesce, Teravainen).
What I would do is pick Svechnikov; trade Skinner if the return is really good; play Aho at center; play Lindholm at center with Svechnikov; make Staal the center on the hardest line to play against in the league; move Rask to LW on a line with Lindholm and Svech; give all the prospects (Necas, Zykov, Foegele, Kuokkanen, Saarela, Roy) the opportunity to compete for three open spots in addition to Svechnikov.
I also hope to see a system that emphasizes offensive involvement from the blueline. All the teams in the playoffs had significantly more scoring from D-men. Even if Faulk is moved, all of Hanifin, Slavin, Pesce, TVR should contribute 6-10 goals. BP’s system appeared to be holding them back, if that changes the Canes will be much closer to a playoff spot.
1. I am betting Hannifan will be traded (for a reasonable return) alongside Skinner, potentially with Rask. Faulk is up there, but I think Hannifan provides a better return plus he is an RFA. Lindholm could enter the picture depending on the RFA negotiations.
I am not sure trading Skinner is a good idea, if e and Faulk could return to their 2016 / 17 form they are top-knotch players.
2. Aho and TT are a pair, JW will be the next C, Jordan Staal is overdue success with the canes and I think he will contribute. I think Mcginn is on the rise and he has the heart, soul and grit to be a very valuable player so I wouldn’t trade him.
3. I have to say that I have no idea. I just hope the braintrust won’t go and make stupid decisions. There is a huge potential with this team by moving around some pieces, but if the whole structure is tore down we could quickly be back at square one.
I believe Skinner will be traded. I’ve offered my opinion on his play, maybe a bit too forcefully, but I think there are other reasons as well. The Canes have an abundance of perimeter forwards. They need more grit up front and you have to move someone to make room. To me that means Skinner or Teravainen. Skinner’s upcoming contract expiration also suggests he may go.
I also believe one of Faulk or Hanifin may go. The change in Faulk’s play has been concerning. The question is why? Attitude, injuries, or something else? We can’t possibly know, but what Canes management thinks lead to a trade or no trade. The Canes will be gambling on Hanifin this summer. They will either gamble and sign him, or gamble and trade him. No way to tell which is the right decision from my viewpoint. Hanifin is the player that should return the most of any player we have mentioned. He is the guy that could bring in a top goalie prospect or a top 6 forward.
I would be very surprised to see Jordan Staal traded. He has done his job well in his time in Carolina. No, he hasn’t blossomed into much of a scorer, but he’s a high end checking centerman, and those are awfully valuable as well. I doubt Lindholm will go unless another team really wants him and sends a big return.
The bottom line with all these players is what kind of guy are they in the room? Are they a hard worker that is a good teammate? Or are they part of the problem in the locker room we heard about near the end of the season? Hard for us to tell unless we have inside information. This will be the driving force behind who gets traded in my opinion.
Yeah, every other fan base flipped out over McKenzie’s BS. There seems to be a consensus that we’re dumb and would give away our best young players for peanuts. If I were Waddell and TD I would memorize the phrase ‘pay up or shut up’
1. It’s Faulk. He’s still valuable, it’s just he doesn’t seem like he would be part of Rod’s locker room solution and he’s the most replaceable of the people mentioned, based on our depth at the position.
2. I would not trade Darling, Lindholm or Staal. Darlings trade value cannot get lower, why would we cut losses now? That’s ridiculous. We can afford the bad contract, so let him get a good start next year and see if he can build up some value (while bringing in a vet to compete of course). Lindholm and Staal are just defensive, puck possessional gems for the Canes and Lindholm, especially, was one of the players specifically mentioned by Rod as having that higher gear that the team wants to find.
3. I am hoping and praying that we end up with Svech and maybe a couple other shiny new toys without giving up anyone that might be considered part of our future. That includes Skinner, unless the return is right. I just try to avoid selling players at their lowest trade value, unless they’re a clubhouse cancer or something.
It seems the underlying principle of every trade should be “does this make the team better.” My hope is Carolina is done with picks and prospects trades to make the team better in the future for now. Hopefully the trades will be for NHL players ready to contribute this year.
The front office will determine what better means for the Canes this season. Is it grit, toughness and culture change that are most important? If so then I could see some veterans traded. It is easy to suggest what players should be traded for specific players. That usually turns into arguments of value really quickly. I’ll pass.
I will share some thoughts on players mentioned by Matt.
Darling- might trade the player but not all of the contract
Skinner- change could help team and player
Staal- not happening, he’s a rock for this team
Lindholm- I hope he’s a cane for a long time
Rask- discussed a lot
Slavin- sure for McDavid or Matthews
Faulk- if traded carolina needs another right d with more snarl
Hanifin- I would hate to see him turn into what he can be on another team
I believe trades are coming. Hopefully the team is better as a result.
Whether or not Roddy feels comfortable with 3 young centers and Staal, will determine if Rask and Lindy are moved. My guess is Rask but Lindy would get a better return.
I’d bet Faulk is moved. It is rare that captains are fired and remain with the team.
Darling should be bought out. His IIHL performance isnt helping his status. Buy him out and save 2.3 mil a year. Let him go back to being Chicago’s backup for the remainder of his career.
Hanifin- put the guy on a 2 year bridge deal and get more out of him next offseason or the following. Give Bean some time (if he does) to be league ready. Also, gives us two years to shake out the rest of the cost of the roster. Turbo, Aho, Svech, Fleury, Skinner (if still here), Zykov, etc will all have new deals, need new deals, or have a new deal looming within that 2 year period. We’ll know what we have on the roster and what we can afford.
Skinner- Svech and Necas’ anticipated arrival makes him expendable. I hold him until the draft to make sure we get Svech first. I look at Edmonton as a great trade partner here.
Pesce & Slavin- no way
1. I think the most logical way to shake it up a bit is to deal from our strength. I think the defense is the area where you can move a piece to help out another area. Slavin and Pesce aren’t going anywhere, but I think if the right thing is presented any of Faulk, Hanifin, Fluery, Bean, etc are available.
2. I would not trade Skinner, period. I get it, he’s an eye sore in his own end, has been a minus player 7 out of 8 seasons, probably can’t spell ‘back check’ if he was spotted the first 9 letters, etc. However, (and I’m paraphrasing this from Section 328 member, Canealytics @Cane_alytics) see below
Since Skinner entered the NHL he has the 5th most shots on goal and shot attempts at 5v5 in the entire league
Player Season iSF
A Ovechkin 2010-2018 1655
P Kessel 2010-2018 1480
E Kane 2010-2018 1478
Rick Nash 2010-2018 1434
J Skinner 2010-2018 1408
Player Season iCF
A Ovechkin 2010-2018 3330
B Burns 2010-2018 3053
E Karlsson 2010-2018 2655
P Kessel 2010-2018 2596
J Skinner 2010-2018 2516
More importantly are the line mates (quality, lack there of) that he primarily played with at 5v5 during that time frame
17/18 D Ryan/Stempniak
16/17 D Ryan/Stempniak
15/16 Rask/ Di Guiseppe
14/15 Lindholm/Rask
13/14 Lindhold/Riley Nash
12/13 J Staal/Dwyer
11/12 Jokinen/Ruutu
10/11 Ruutu/LaRose
AND the kicker…. He is 3rd in the entire league in that time frame in individual expected goals at 5v5
Player Season ixGF
J Tavares 2010-2018 143.44
A Ovechkin 2010-2018 135.25
J Skinner 2010-2018 132.42
C Perry 2010-2018 123.83
J Pavelski 2010-2018 123.7
E Staal 2010-2018 121.37
P Hornqvist2010-2018 120.92
E Kane 2010-2018 120.17
T Hall 2010-2018 117.57
P Marleau 2010-2018 115.52
Let’s get some line mates for Skinner and a new contract! He’s most likely not going to be very good in his own end, but he’s ability to create offense is more valuable to the team long term than his short comings in his 200′ game.
3. I’m not sure what to expect going forward. I would certainly not trade the #2 pick and I would not trade Skinner. But, something tells me I’ll be wrong, hopefully I’m not wrong on both counts.
I’m with you canesjkg. Thanks for statisticking out that logic, great job. Dude puts pucks in nets. Get him some linemates and let him snipe.
The 5 on 5 goals expected is an impressive stat. I’m not sold on the shot statistics. My eye tells me Skinner takes a lot of really low % shots. The “I’m trying to beat three guys and loft a muffin at the goalie” shot and the “I’m not going to try to beat this big guy to the net as it might hurt, so I’m going to take a slapper from inside the blueline” shot are a couple of his specialties. As we’ve noticed the Canes in general take a lot of low percentage outside shots.
I think the bottom line with Skinner and a trade has to do with what management thinks of his character. If they like it, he may stay. If they don’t, he is gone.
Y’all know I love data. I think this my be getting misinterpreted. The fact that Skinner has such a high expected goal number is because he takes lots of shots. And his taking lots of shots might be a bug not a feature. The team heat chart at hockeyviz shows a team taking too many shots from wide and too few from between the dots. My guess is Skinner fit that pattern this past season.
When Skinner was hot in 16-17 it was because Stempniak or Ryan got him the puck in the middle of the ice. I think in his years in Raleigh Skinner has actually been more successful with lesser offensive line mates. But that causes it’s own issues.
I am not going so far as to argue he can’t be more successful. It does however seem like a Goldilocks problem. Given the young talent—especially the second pick—Skinner’s ability to shoot from all over the ice might not be as valuable as it was when he was really the only option.
If he stays, Wallmark and Williams probably make the most sense as linemates.
Good points. The old waronice.com used to have shot charts for every player. I looked at Skinner’s a while back and the difference between his high goal scoring and low goal scoring year graphics were striking. Get in the dirty areas…you score. Shoot a lot from outside, you don’t. Too bad that website is no longer.
1. I could see Hanafin or Rask/Lindholm being traded for the right price. Darling is unlikely to be moved this year.
2. Jordan and Skinner. Jordan is good at everything except scoring. And I wouldn’t trade Skinner, unless he’s made it clear he’s out the door in Free Agency. Then again, trading the #2 and #4 scorers and trading the #2 pick/taking Tkachuk on a team staving for goals would be the Canesiest thing every.
3. I have no clue. It’s all new front office people, and a new owner, so I’m in the space between “give them a chance” and “Arby’s level existential dread.”
1. In order of perceived likelihood of being traded: Faulk->Skinner->Rask->Hanifin
What makes Skinner, per canesjkg, is what will bring back value for him. I am all for the changes and I do think it will (and will be best for all parties).
Hanifin – he may realize his potential elsewhere, but if he is not going to reach it here and we can get a solid return for him then, again, best for all parties.
I don’t see trading Darling unless we can do it cheaper than buying him out, and I don’t think we would buyout (or trade) Darling unless we had another goalie already in hand. I doubt that will happen before the buyout time.
2. Less likely to get traded, in order: Staal, Lindholm.
I was impressed when RBA specifically mentioned Staal and Lindy as players he can help make better and I think his points are solid. Staal can produce more offense if given more of that responsibility, and Lindholm showed excellent results two years once he started playing tough – something that didn’t happen this year.
3. I hate speculating on such wide open questions – too many pieces in motion and we really don’t know the “world view” of the owner and management.
I am weary of all the speculation of who will be traded this summer. I must admit that some ideas expressed on this site in that regard have been good ones. Some have been respectful of the players and some not.
It is those who have no respect for players that provoke emotions in me that I don’t enjoy feeling. I read posts on this site to increase my knowledge of the game as well as to have fun. Posts from such people provide neither to me.
I must admit that I had hoped that I could begin to understand how a person can dehumanize the players and reduce everything to statistics, yet still love the game. I have come to understand that they can’t. They don’t. They don’t respect the players. They don’t love the game. They love the numbers.
I am not a “snowflake”. I do not need a “safe zone” to protect me from opinions in opposition to mine. Were that the case, I would have made a home in a cave a long time ago.
But I need to take a time out. I have already been intemperate with some whose comments I found to be absurd. Others have been spared only by my having nearly bitten my tongue clear through.
I apologize to anyone whom I have offended. I want to thank those who have enlightened me with your ideas and information.
I will be back when things start happening.
Hahahahah yeah, probably a good time to check out then, speculation is really all we’re running on lol. Want you to know though that I agree 100% on the humanity aspects. A lot of fans seemingly treat these players as hockey robots instead of humans, solely because they get a large paycheck. Money doesn’t make a person less human, it apparently just makes everyone else have the right to be super judgemental. Which they do to an extent based on play, since they pay for games, but respect for your fellow human doesn’t go out the window just because we’re talking about sports.
Hope to see you back for the exciting times friend. I’ve really enjoyed your contributions to the community
Any player is more likely to be traded if he a) is perceived by RBA as a problem in the locker room (aka someone who he’ll have trouble getting to play his way or who JW confirms was a negative drag last year); and b) gets a fair return. I don’t know who the players are that meet criteria A but it’s likely some of the guys in the prior leadership group. We’d get a very nice return for either Skinner or Faulk and I think both are being actively shopped; whether anything happens … If the perception around the league of Skinner is similar to canesjkg, we’ll probably be pleased.
Personally, I would be disappointed if we traded Aho, TT, Staal, or Lindholm on offense; on defense, I’d listen to offers on anyone but would be most reluctant to trade Pesce then Slavin then Hanifin.
I give Darling another year.
I am worried that this group is going to be too eager to make changes and make trades for trading’s sake – in other words, swing the pendulum too far in the opposite direction of GMRF – but I’m more optimistic that the deals we’re going to make will be reasonable. I also doubt will screw up the #2 pick.
Five more weeks of speculation until the draft. How fun.
When RBM was playing in Philly, if things were not going well, Ed Snider the owner of the Flyers would authorize a trade. But it wouldn’t be just a normal trade of some third or fourth line player for a slight upgrade that would make some sort of marginal difference – or not. He would trade one of the locker room favorites, one of the “boys”, sending a message that no one is safe and they better get their respective acts together or they’ll be the next one to go. I believe RBM was one of those types of moves when he was traded out of Philly. I believe what we’ll see is the first player traded is one of the boys, and someone who RBM feels does not have the fortitude to ratchet it up a notch to reach a higher level of play. I’m guessing Justin Faulk. He has lots of value, right handed d-man who can score 15 – 20 goals. But has there ever been a more invisible captain on any team that you’re familiar with? It was like last season just didn’t exist for him, and he didn’t really make any kind of surge at any point. Blah. I wish him success – seems like a good guy – but my guess is he’ll be the first to go.
I think Darling stays. There’s no market without holding salary and I can’t believe he’s as bad as he played this season. Too much potential to throw away after one horrific year. Ward gets let go, signs on with a pretty good team as a backup for a year and comes back to Raleigh with a job in the organization the following year.
I think a max of two players gets traded. This team is not that far away and Brindamour knows that. Faulk for a more physical, playoff style forward or veteran d-man. Maybe a Lindholm for like player. “Hockey” trade.
I’m guessing some folks get moved out. I can see Hanifin being one, maybe Skinner, depending on return. One wrench that I have to throw in is expansion draft planning. If Seattle starts play in 2019-2020, or even in 2020-2021, some of what management has to be planning on is whom would I protect? I imagine the rules will be same for them as it was with Vegas. Without completely wiping out the team and doing a full reboot, some accounting is probably being made for how do I juggle expansion draft.