Monday marks a growing tradition in local hockey when the University of North Carolina and North Carolina State meet at PNC Arena. The game comes HIGHLY recommended as a way to support local hockey but equally importantly because the game and atmosphere were an absolute blast last year.
The game is Monday at 7pm at PNC Arena. Parking is free as is admission with a suggested $5 donation at the door.
I encourage everyone who can make it work schedule-wise to come out for a fun night of hockey.
We will have check ins/previews for both teams up no later than midday on Monday, so check back in to get the scoop before the game.
With the Hurricanes sitting at 19 games played and just shy of 20 which is already the quarter mark of the season and also with the team surging right now, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the team and identify things that are better than expected so far. My short list follows, and I look forward to seeing what others have to add to it.
Teuvo Teravainen
With his three-point game on Sunday, Teuvo Teravainen suddenly has 19 points in 19 games which makes for easy math and a HUGE 82-game point pace. Scoring is up right now, but Teravainen’s 1.00 points per game pace is good enough to tie him for 30th in the entire NHL and puts him atop the Hurricanes scoring ranks. The hope when Teravainen was acquired was that as he matured as a player his offensive production would increase. At only 19 games into the 2017-18, I would not declare this transition complete, but Teravainen has definitely taken strides in that direction in November. Critical for him will be avoiding extended droughts of quiet. As tremendous as Teravainen’s totals are, he really has only been at it for six games which are good for 12 of his 19 points.
Cam Ward as a backup
During the offseason, I made note of the differences between being a backup and a starter. As a player who has not really been a bakup in more than a decade, Ward’s transition to the new role was far from a certainty. In general, the hope when a backup starts is that he be decent and at least give the team a chance to win. Thus far, Ward has far exceeded that target. His 3-2 record is not eye-popping, but he has been a difference-maker in all three of the wins and each and every one was a game where he needed to be on top of his game for his team to win. The Canes were outplayed by Edmonton with Ward being peppered by more than 50 shots and holding the fort. His win against Columbus similarly required strong play to net a win. And yesterday against the Islanders, the defense in front of him had their share of issues, but he erased the vast majority of them. Entering the season, I hoped for ‘good enough’ from Ward as a backup. He has been significantly better than that thus far.
Jordan Staal’s scoring
I would not say that Jordan Staal has exceeded expectations in terms of his two-way play. That is not to say that he has not been good in that regard. Rather, it is to say that this core strength of Staal’s game is taken for granted at this point. But his current 65-point pace is a full 20 points higher than his 2016-17 total.
Brock McGinn
When he received a one-way contract, he figured to be somewhere on the Hurricanes 2017-18 depth chart likely either on the fourth line or as an extra at #13. In terms of slot, that is where he has spent a good chunk of the 2017-18 season, but his scoring total thus far surpasses that level. His current 5 goals and 5 assists projects to roughly 40 points for the season despite the fact that he has not played every game, is averaging a modest 12:39 of ice time and only recently received a small helping of power play ice time. McGinn’s scoring thus far significantly exceeds his role and opportunity.
Haydn Fleury
After a strong first year as a professional with the Charlotte Checkers for the 2016-17 season, the hope and expectation was that Haydn Fleury was ready for an NHL role. General Manager Ron Francis left a slot accordingly when he added only Trevor van Riemsdyk to the mix on the blue line.
Fleury has only four assists (and no goals) to his credit through 18 games, but he has adapted quickly to the NHL game and though he does make occasional mistakes, he has been better than expected. The team is winning when he is on the ice at even strength, and he is also a regular on the penalty kill. He has been solid in a third pairing role but more recently has been elevated into the top 4 at times and performed pretty well doing so. At this point, Fleury has exceeded reasonable expectations for where he would be just 19 games into his rookie season.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What else would you add to my “better than expected” list for the start of the 2017-18 season?
2) How would you rank the five that I came up with?
Go Canes!
1) Trevor van Riemsdyk. As with Fleury, I think the expectation was to be better than Murphy and Tennyson. TVR has also looked most nights like he would be capable on most teams’ top 4. He is solid, skates well, and has even shown a knack for keeping the puck in the offensive zone on occasion.
2) I would put McGinn first. Because the others are where my expectations began the season.
* My prediction before the season was for TT to lead the team in points. I based this on where he ranks all-time in the World Junior Championships U20 points leaders. He is tied with Schenn and Henrik Sedin and a point above Malkin and Ovechkin having played fewer games. This is not a total anomaly.
* Since last season, I have argued that Ward’s performance was better than everyone thought (there are/were at least two uninterested analysts who produced models that showed Cam slightly above league average).
* Staal is benefitting from things that should have been expected (more productive line mates, less and the presence of Kruger to ease his defensive load).
* Fleury was a top 6 pick and had an outstanding year in the AHL. He is reflecting that.
1/ The Offense. As of this morning, the Canes are #8 in the league in goals/games-played and we have scored 3+ in 9 of the last 10, all with a PP that’s ranked #27. This is a young team that is still growing so it’s not surprising that it took ~10 games to get going. And not everyone is going yet (Rask/Faulk especially). The PP has look noticeably better over the last 10 chances so it doesn’t take much imagination to see a very potent offense when it all starts clicking, which is starting to feel like it’s right around the corner.
(OK, Puckgod: now go bonkers on me.)
2/ The 4th-line. They haven’t scored much – maybe even less than last year’s 4th line if that’s even possible – but they have been lights-out defensively and have been remarkably trustworthy. I’m just not that worried about giving up a goal or losing momentum when they are out there, even deep in the 3rd in close games; I don’t think it’s just me that feels this way. Jooris and Kruger have been excellent upgrades. We talked about Kruger taking the pressure off Staal; it’s working, and I think it’s a big reason why Staal’s offensive production is higher than we expected.
3/ Organizational Depth. Already, we’ve had to rely on McKeown and PSG, who have both exceeded expectations when inserted into the lineup. It’s a small sample size, but there are a number of other players lighting up the AHL ready for their chance and I doubt we’d miss a beat whoever we call up. We haven’t had this many options since I’ve been a fan of the team, and maybe ever.
As you mention, twelve of Teuvo’s points have come in the past 6 games and 10 of those points in the 4 most recent games. That is the definition of a streak, and streaks are made to be ridden for as long as they continue. Of course, this streak started when the coaching staff told Teuvo to start shooting more so I think there could be legs to this. I also think the re-constitution of the TSA is a primary trigger for both Teuvo and Aho. The passing between the 3 of them has been near elite.
Before anyone goes bonkers on anyone, here are some statistics/facts that absolutely back up these points.
1. He may be inconsistent, but Teuvo is on PPG pace on the whole right now. All that said, were he to cool down slightly, yet still finish as a 60-point scorer, I doubt we’d care how many games he actually scored in. Like nearly every other player on our team, the best is yet to come for him.
2. Through 19 games, McGinn has 10 points. His career high was last year, where he scored 16 points in 57 games. Suffice it to say, he’s developing nicely in an area where many of us didn’t exactly expect him to.
3. The goaltending is absolutely the key to all of this. Darling’s save percentage is currently at .909, and Ward sits at .922. Compare this to last year when Ward finished with a .905, and Lack sat at .902 and you realize that though they haven’t been perfect, Darling/Ward have been BETTER than the goaltending last year. We all knew going in that improved goaltending would be the single, most important factor in any legitimate improvement and so far, we’ve seen just that. Here’s hoping that our goalies can keep it up. If Darling improves as he gets used to starting, then the tandem conceivably gets downright scary.
I also want to second dmilleravid’s point about organizational depth. McKeown, DiGi, Carrick and Kuokkanen have all stepped in and played reasonably well, and it seems to be driving a huge competition for ice time that is just a gold mine for us fans. Every single one of them (and many in Charlotte) want to play of the PNC ice and you can see that effort game in and game out. Where does that get us? Victor Rask as a healthy scratch, due to his slump, and Di Gi comes in and produces in his spot. This is fantastic for us.
Prep yourself now, we will hit another slump before this season is over, but the arrow is unmistakably still on it’s way up with still no ceiling yet in sight.
I’m glad somebody mentioned TVR. He has been excellent. I wouldn’t say Derek Ryan has been better than expected but he’s been better than I expected him to be as he does seem to be a passable 3rd line centre.
The thing that impresses me the most as mentioned above is organizational depth. If somebody had said we could win games with Victor Rask as a healthy scratch and under performing when he was slated to be one of our top 6 centres I would have said they were crazy. Yet there he was out of the lineup against NY and the team just rolled on. Everyone who has stepped in more or less has looked fine. Jooris, Diguiseppe, Mcginn, Nordstrom, Kruger (and scratch Mcginn from this list as he’s proven himself an everyday player) have all been fine in their roles and Peters can roll out a good group every night.
The last few games have been collectively much better than the start to the season…BUT even so, some of them still were not close to dominant! When Kane appeared to score that 2nd goal in less than a minute I sure didn’t think it was likely we would win…how about ya’all?
This team has a pretty tough schedule, coming up. I’m going to reserve my determination of the degree of excellence this team is at, for awhile…ok?
Yes, it is confirmation that we needed to have better goaltending, which has been a nice change, the defense has been less dominant than I hoped (but not terrible), and (at times) the offense has been a little better!
Time will tell if this is a playoff caliber team…
The jury is still out IMO!!!
Within the context of “BTE so far”, I agree with Turbo and Staal being at the top. In fact perhaps it should be the whole TSA line. They are playing excellent defense as well as offense. They are often on the ice with the opponent’s top line, and are shutting them down as well as scoring. I didn’t expect that level of defensive acumen from the wings or that proficient scoring at the center. The three together have been quite fun to watch at both ends.
Wardo has been pleasantly solid as well. While I didn’t like the whole co-captain idea, perhaps splitting time more evenly with our goalies would keep them both fresh. Cam was the backup for the great portion of the Stanley Cup year (including the start of the playoffs) and a medium workload may be ideal for both. If they both agree and it is not confusing or frustrating for them it is an interesting idea.
And I agree with dmiller on the 4th line, for two reasons. One, they have been good. Two, Staal would likely be grinding instead of centering Turbo and Aho if not for Kruger.
Similarly to the TSA line comment, the “3rd pairing” (at least to start the year) is BTE so far for me. Although we had nowhere to go but up, I didn’t expect them to look better than Hanifin / Faulk on some nights. Mixing the pairings made the whole group better, which is BTE so far.
McGinn has been a catalyst for net-front presence on the team, a contribution that goes beyond his individual performance and contributes to leadership. If anyone predicted that, I missed it!
I agree with others comments on better then expected. The NYI game was a great game to be at. TSA line is very dangerous. 4th line is not scoring but they are shutting folks down. I have little concern if their plus minus is a little negative, that will happen as a few will get in. It would be nice if they get a few goals but they are definitely doing the job.
Oh my, was Ward hot. He has only had one bad game. Every other time he has been really good. He should be 4 and 1, the team let him down. I think we wore him out last year, given some rest we see what he is capable of. I said pre game I did not fear him in net any longer. Last night re-confirmed that. It is a long season but our goalies look like they could be one of the better tandems. Darling lays an egg every once in a while. I hope he can stop that.
Faulk was giving the puck up right to the other team in dangerous positions, several times. Man, he has got to get it going. I know he is captain but may be time to bring McKeown up and sit Faulk as well. His play is unacceptable. I am happy they sat Rask, if you do not produce, you do not get ice time. I hope they sit him the next game as well to have the point be felt.
McGinn has been physical with net presence. I think he has surpassed expectations. Lindholm has been getting physical and net front as well, the difference is it was expected from him.
Its funny just last week we were thinking that the trades with the Blackhawks were not really resulting in much. I think the critique was very valid. There were several of those trades which did not produce much. Things chance and I think TT is blowing that out of the water. Darling seem to be becoming more comfortable also.
I really like our new D, TVR and Fleury are excelling. IMO Hanifin is improving also. Faulk is the one I worry about.