Today’s Daily Cup of Joe has an assortment of Canes comments.
Andrei Svechnikov
Increasingly, I think Andrei Svechnikov’s ceiling is actually higher than Sebastian Aho’s. That might sound crazy given that Aho is coming off a point per game season, is roughly on track to repeat that and could still have upside at 22 years old. But with a power forward element to his game and his growing ability to finish, I think Svechnikov has a diverse enough tool bag to become an elite scorer.
Two-year window
In that vein, I think the Hurricanes have an interesting two-year window to try to build the best team possible to see where that takes them in the playoffs. The Hurricanes are a young team, so by no means are they about to run out of time or hit the age wall as happens to many teams. But per my comments above, with Svechnikov on pace for a massive raise after the 2020-21 season when Hamilton is also up for renewal, the Hurricanes will suddenly be up against the salary cap and be limited in their ability to add players. As I have written about a couple times, that is not true for 2020-21. The Canes free up about $7 million cap space that is not even allocated to current players (Marleau and small retention on Faulk contract). So if management wanted, the team has some budget to go after it next season. Another factor is Jordan Staal. I think the increased number of obstruction type penalties that Staal has taken this season are a harbinger for a different day when Staal is still a good player but maybe just is not an elite defender anymore.
Jaccob Slavin
Since the injury to Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin has done an adequate job filling in on the power play. But the subtle but critical difference between the two is Slavin’s lack of instincts/feel for when to creep into a shooting position as the puck moves around. Hamilton both pressured the defense and generated scoring chances and goals by having a knack for knowing when/where to step up to the top of the face-off circle to receive and shoot. Meanwhile, Slavin tends to always be sitting high right around the blue line. The result is that he is less likely to score a ton on the power play and maybe equally significantly makes it a bit easier on opposing penalty kills that do not so much have to account for Slavin knowing where he will be.
Martin Necas
As much as anyone other player, Martin Necas could be a key for the Hurricanes finding a higher gear and playing their way up the depth chart of the NHL. With Staal gradually taking on a lesser role over the coming years, the Canes need another top 6 center ideally with the ability to drive a second scoring line. Lucas Wallmark has established himself in the NHL. Morgan Geekie continues to make strides in the AHL. But of the players currently in the system for the Hurricanes, I do not think any have the potential upside as Necas as a playmaking second line center. There is a ton of uncertainty with this possibility with the need for Necas to successfully move back to center, but I think the upside and potential are there too.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you see as Andrei Svechnikov’s ceiling in terms of points, goals or whatever?
2) Acknowledging that the Canes window of opportunity will not suddenly close altogether, what do you make of my assertion that one of the bets opportunities could be next season?
3) What are your thoughts on my other notes above?
Go Canes!
I’ve been wondering if Jordan Staal is playing hurt because he looks a step slow and seems to be playing more tentative. If he’s hit that wall after years of a physical, grinding brand of hockey, it’s understandable. But RBA and the team have to come to terms with that and reduce his 5×5 ice time.
Definitely agree, there’s a window here for this team. I don’t know that they’ll pay Dougie what he deserves, but really hoping that he takes a slight discount for a longer term deal. I think they could also make some room in budget by trying to move Nino, Dzingel, and Gardiner.
1. Since before the draft I have described Svech as the next Ovechkin. There may be some exaggeration but he is certainly shaping his game that way, including the power game, his ability to finish, and his play on the rush. We are going to be treated to some amazing hockey from this young man.
2. You have done a great job in previous cloumns at highlighting next season, based on cap, as a pivot year. I am very curious what Waddell will be doing in the offseason and what perspective he will take. We have cap, we have money, and we have a lot of picks for next season – would he take a flyer on a full-year rental player.
dc makes a point on several named players – I will generalize that in saying how much of our current roster will be there next season. We tend to assume that players this year will be players next year but turnover is a desired thing – and I have read that a healthy turnover is on order of about 25% annually. I expect some shuffling that will change the roster while keeping your basic thesis intact, Matt.
3. I am a huge fan of Necas – his first step in developing as a center is being able to take faceoffs and, in practice, RBA drills him on this. When you start seeing Necas at the dot you can assume the conversion is underway. But he is so good as a playmaking wing (with his one-timer from the circle) that developing him into a center may not be the best use of him.
As for Staal – I have heard a whisper of a thought from someone connected to the organization that Staal may be traded in the next year or two. That frees cap and opens a slot – and allows us to completely rethink our centers. With Wallmark a Staal clone, we no longer need to ice what are effectively two checking lines. And we don’t have to rely on ELCs to fill a center spot because of cap constraints for the big Svech and (hopefully) Hamilton contracts. I heard the trade mention over the summer and, to me, that is the real wildcard for the team’s 1-3 year future.
Meanwhile, over at The Athletic a worthy read: https://theathletic.com/1586472/2020/02/10/wheelers-2021-nhl-prospect-pool-rankings-no-3-carolina-hurricanes/
Wheeler has the Canes’s prospect pool ranked third. More than that, however, is how he describes the way the Canes have been drafting:
“They’re willing to take risks. They swing on skill and ceiling, rather than safety and floor. They’re willing to take chances on players others won’t touch. They’re looking for home runs, not bunts. They’re comfortable making mistakes.
The results are reflected in their system. Though the Canes don’t have one of the game’s top prospects, they’ve got a pool that runs deep with high-risk, high-reward players. They’ve got a group of misfit toys, players who ooze talent and the occasional red flag.”
I, for one, like that description.
Read that one as well. I think he’s out there on his love for Honka. He’s skilled, but on defense a bad head will keep you out of the NHL. You can put up with it to a point as a forward, but not on D. Maybe Honka will figure it out, but what I’ve seen of him suggests he has a long way to go.
In general Wheeler’s article looks at players much like a scout. Coaches look at them differently. Once the players are in the system for a year or more I find the coach’s opinions are much more accurate. Players have to be able to be effective in a much more structured game to play in the NHL. Some have plenty skill, but just can’t do it.
Might be a smart cap move to extend Svechnikov a year early. Get him to take a lower AAV to get paid a year early. I think he’s pretty much a “can’t miss” at this point.
Jordan Staal has been a step slow all year. He might want to consider changing his summer training process to see if he can get it back. I don’t think he’ll be traded soon. I’m not convinced Wallmark is ready to take his place.
Slavin is not as aggressive on the PP for sure, but he also doesn’t have Hamilton’s shot. Slavin can do what needs to be done on the PP, but he isn’t a major scoring threat. He is aces at getting the puck in the zone though.
Necas has a long way to go defensively to be trusted as a centerman. Still makes a lot of bad decisions, but he has improved.
Agree on Svetch – I’ve said he reminds me of Pavel Datsyuk or Marian Hossa: basically impossible to move off the puck once he has possession with elite scoring, and with the desire to hit people like Ovi. The VGK game is a foreshadowing of what’s to come with him. Really exciting.
And the VGK game is a foreshadowing of what’s to come with Necas. He needs to get stronger – probably two years away from being “strong enough” – but then he’s going to be one of the most exciting players in the league.
As for Staal, last year at this time I was kind of down on him when he went down injured and the team started playing its best hockey in years without him, thinking there was a correlation between our better play and his absence. And then he came back playing much better and was a horse in the playoffs. The thing I’ve come to realize about Staal is that his real value is late in the season and in playoffs when his physical play affects games more than it does now. If anything, I’d manage his minutes so he stays fresh for the stretch-run.
David Cotton is an unsigned college senior forward at Boston College with NHL center potential in the Canes system. When asked about his future he has used all the coy and appropriate cliches about just focusing on this season at BC. Any one have insight on his inclinations to sign with the Canes or to wait to be a free agent in August?
I’m sure there would be some interest for Cotton out there, but he’s not going to have every GM blowing up his phone. Drury is the one to worry about. He has a couple years left, but the Harvard kids have a history.
When the Bean Pot Tourney was on tv, I was able to watch Cotton play. He is 6’2′, 205lbs. Good size, vision, speed and hands. As a 6th round pick he was a steal. (He has actually attended 4 Canes prospects camps on his own dime.) In August as a UFA he would gather the attention of more than a few teams. The fact we indeed may need to worry about Drury is really unrelated to signing Cotton as soon as his season is over in Boston.