Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is another round of catch up notes on Sebastian Aho, Noah Hanifin and Jaccob Slavin.
Sebastian Aho
As much as the die-hard (and oh have we died in a hard way many times over now) fan base needs something to cling to right now, I am not at all a fan of the over the top marketing of Sebastian Aho down the stretch.
Aho is every bit deserving of the accolades and attention, and I think he is on his way to great things. But I am a huge fan of just letting young players work their way into greatness. If that happens instantly, so be it. But if it does not and/or when there are setbacks, the player does not have the weight of extra pressure heaped upon him.
One need look no further than the Canes locker room for players who were anointed into high ceilings ahead of reaching them and then struggled (and in many cases are still struggling) to get there. Elias Lindholm was given an NHL roster slot by Jim Rutherford before he even arrived in Raleigh and was talked up so much as being NHL-ready that the next logical step was to just completely ignore evidence that suggested he was not. It took Lindholm pretty much the entirety of his entry-level contract to grow just to be a serviceable top 9 forward at the NHL level, and it is unclear whether his career trajectory was irreversibly damaged along the way. More recently, Noah Hanifin was drafted as a can’t miss top pairing defenseman. Similarly, he was given an NHL slot that he never really had to earn or justify keeping. Somewhat like Lindholm, Hanifin will complete his entry-level contract next week still very much as a bottom half of the roster player with work to do to reach a high potential ceiling and become more. One could even argue that Justin Faulk was affected in a similar way. Faulk’s initial rise came somewhat quietly without a ton of fanfare. He just played his way up the depth chart until he was playing in the first pairing with Andrej Sekera. Only after he was declared the star and leader of a young group did Faulk’s rise suddenly seem to sputter.
So back to the matter at hand, which is Sebastian Aho — As much as it made for great television and a much-needed feel-good story at the end of another tough year for fans, I am not a fan of the “Showcase” night that the team did for the television broadcast, nor am I a big fan of how heavily the team has been emphasizing him of late. Best guess is that Sebastian Aho is good enough to rise above any pressure or expectations, but it just is not something that I would mess with.
Noah Hanifin
Noah Hanifin is one of two high draft pedigree players who is scheduled to be a restricted free agent this summer. (Elias Lindholm is the other.) Hanifin’s contract situation is an interesting one. On the one hand as a #5 overall pick who jumped straight to the NHL after being selected, he is in the category of players who often garners a huge raise. In addition, Hanifin’s 10 goals and 31 points while not eye-popping represent decent scoring production which would also play into Hanifin’s next contract. But the downside is that when one considers Hanifin in the here and now he is still a third pairing defenseman. If Hanifin was drafted lower and played his way up to where he is, he could easily price out in a $1.2 – $2 million range per year. In fact, Trevor van Riemsdyk who was arguably the Canes best third pairing defenseman this season is coming off of a contract that paid $825,000 per year, and it is seems reasonable that he could be re-signed for a significant raise but still less than $2 million per year. But because of his pedigree, Hanifin figures to be paid handsomely for his still intact potential just like Lindholm was a few years back on his second contract. As such, the numbers being bandied around for Hanifin’s next deal stretch north of $3 million per year. That price could be an absolute bargain if Hanifin puts it all together and rises to the neighborhood of his ceiling. But if Hanifin continues to peak as a capable third pairing defenseman, a $3 million price would be roughly double what depth defensemen on the open market price at. Because of the wide range of evaluations considering actual play and potential, Noah Hanifin’s contract this situation has a wide range of outcomes which will make it interesting to see how the situation plays out.
Jaccob Slavin
I have written a couple times about the need for the Hurricanes to get more offensive production from its skating blue line. Front and center in those articles and conversations are Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce who have emerged as capable top pairing players defensively but are arguably light on offensive production. While I do think there is room for growth offensively for both players, I think especially in the case of Slavin that context and ice time paints an interesting picture of his scoring. Slavin has received minimal power play ice time through much of the year, so no surprisingly he has only one power play goal and one power play assist. That means that 28 of his 30 scoring points have come at even strength. That does not sound like anything overly impressive until one starts to compare it to other defensemen, many of whom collect a huge chunk of their scoring with the man advantage.
On the Hurricanes, Slavin’s 28 even strength points are 16 more than Justin Faulk and four more than Noah Hanifin who both are a point ahead in total with 31 points each.
Across the entire league, my quick tally shows Slavin as 22nd in the entire league among defensemen for even strength scoring.
So when one nets it out, there is a strong case to be made for the fact that Jaccob Slavin’s offensive production is actually quite good when considered in the context of his role and ice time.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Does anyone else have an issue with starting to hype Sebastian Aho so heavily at this early juncture of his career? Or am I just too paranoid?
2) Where do you think Noah Hanifin’s next contract lands? How much should his next salary consider potential, and how much should it reflect current role?
3) Is is possible that Jaccob Slavin’s offensive production is just underrated because of his minimal ice time and production on the power play? Do you think he has scoring upside with more power play ice time, or do you think he is being utilized properly as a defenseman whose strength is the defensive side of the puck?
Go Canes!
Aho: With the Canes absolute lack of star power promoting Aho is going to happen. He is far more deserving than Lindholm or Hanifin have been. There is no indication it has changed his game over the past several months. It would be nice to lean on veterans, but outside of Justin Williams who do the Canes have?
Hanifin: The Canes are stuck with paying him. The All-Star nomination was the worst thing that could happen to him. This is a guy that I worry thinks he has arrived. He stinks in his own zone. No other way to say it. He needs to improve significantly there to be a good defenseman in the NHL. I would say it is a 50/50 shot he will do so. Also, the Canes need to stop drafting NTDP defensemen. They don’t play D. Look to Europe. The best young D seem to be coming from Europe. Did you watch Provorov for the Flyers last night? Should have been an all-star this year instead of Hanifin. He is better than his more heralded d-partner Shane Gostisbehere.
Slavin: I will continue to beat the drum that Slavin’s increased amount of jumping into the play and trying to create offense is a big mistake. His even strength output is nearly identical to last season. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/slavija01-advanced-ev.html Check out the NHL rate metrics. g/60, a/60, a2/60. Nearly identical. His defense has NOT been nearly identical. I love Slavin and he should be a good to great defenseman in the NHL for a long time. He needs to stick to playing defense.
Aho: With the Canes absolute lack of star power promoting Aho is going to happen. He is far more deserving than Lindholm or Hanifin have been. There is no indication it has changed his game over the past several months. It would be nice to lean on veterans, but outside of Justin Williams who do the Canes have?
Hanifin: The Canes are stuck with paying him. The All-Star nomination was the worst thing that could happen to him. This is a guy that I worry thinks he has arrived. He stinks in his own zone. No other way to say it. He needs to improve significantly there to be a good defenseman in the NHL. I would say it is a 50/50 shot he will do so. Also, the Canes need to stop drafting NTDP defensemen. They don’t play D. Look to Europe. The best young D seem to be coming from Europe. Did you watch Provorov for the Flyers last night? Should have been an all-star this year instead of Hanifin. He is better than his more heralded d-partner Shane Gostisbehere.
Slavin: I will continue to beat the drum that Slavin’s increased amount of jumping into the play and trying to create offense is a big mistake. His even strength output is nearly identical to last season. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/slavija01-advanced-ev.html Check out the NHL rate metrics. g/60, a/60, a2/60. Nearly identical. His defense has NOT been nearly identical. I love Slavin and he should be a good to great defenseman in the NHL for a long time. He needs to stick to playing defense.
Sorry about that. Not sure why it double posted.
Provorov played his junior career in the CHL not in Europe. That being said I truly believed in that draft year he was the best dman available. Strikes me as a Pk Subban/Duncan Keith type hybrid.
Am aware that Provorov played in CHL. That does come with it’s risks if the player isn’t NHL ready. I was more referring to where he grew up and the style of play he learned. Not impressed with the celebrated US defensemen. All of USA Hockey’s emphasis on skill is great, but you need to learn how to play the game as well. They were trying to copy how the Europeans develop kids, but they are missing something.
I went on a mini rant about Aho’s micked up night elsewhere, I thought it was one of his worst games, the attention is probably bothering him.
He is deserving, absolutely, but we can’t hang all our hopes on him and disrupt him from doing what he is supposed to do, learn on the job and become an even better player. I worry that the attention will slow or derail that process.
Noah is not an allstar defenseman, I wouldn’t even count him in the top 50. It’s just easier to get attention if you are the most promoted fish in a lackluster pond. He needs to figure it out, and I hope the Canes won’t be lured into overpaying him grossly.
He could be a good trade bate if his slot can be backfilled with a decent experienced defenseman.
Agree with Breezy. We cannot rely on Aho as 1C or to be an elite player next year. Give him a year or two to ease into being elite before we crown him. Some have suggested his world junior elite-level play is indicative of the same to come at the NHL level. But we have to keep in mind those tournaments oftentimes are played on larger ice surfaces and against players of the same age/stature. He’s a bit on the smaller side for a 1C in the NHL. That said, I get all the hype and it’s well deserved so far…would just prefer he continue to grow versus expecting the same next year.
Hanifin is a catch 22…he was drafted to become a #1 defenseman and that very well can still happen (he’s only 21). After 3 years we’re all left with sort of a desire for more (he hasn’t been able to grow from the bottom pairing). I believe he receives a 1-yr bridge deal, if he is willing to accept (basically the team saying you have to be in our top 4 to earn the big bucks) come into camp next year and prove it.
Slavin in an ideal state is a top pairing defenseman, though would slot as your #2. Otherwise he anchors a solid middle pair.
Aho
I don’t know if you are paranoid, Matt, but I am not worried about Aho. He is mature beyond his 20 years and very humble about the attention and very competitive. I don’t think the accolades now, at the end of his second year, are going to take him off track. He is learning his trade as an NHL center but I wouldn’t deny him the positive attention he is receiving simply because he is young and still building experience.
Hanifin
I don’t think Noah and his agent rebuffed attempts last summer to re-sign him in order to sign a bridge deal this summer. They were looking for a big year – and an AllStar berth constitutes that. I expect they will look for money and term comparable to the non-AllStars Pesce and Slavin. I think the Canes will probably look for a bridge deal so it should be an interesting negotiation. I expect something like a 3-year “bridge” deal with many in the $3-4M range, although that is just a wild guess.
Slavin
When you have Faulk and Hanifin playing point on the PP, I don’t see where Slavin can effectively step into that role. I do like that he is engaged more on the offense in rushes an switches and I think that adds to his game and not detracts. His defense close to the net has been a little off but not his transition defense – I would expect the latter would be the case if 5×5 offensive role was impacting his ability in the D-zone.
It all depends whether Aho is enjoying the attention or he finds it uncomfortable.
If he enjoys it than have nothing against him getting the attention, though I personally find it embarrassing and uncomfortable to watch and it reminds me too much of the team trying to overhype players in the past (but that is just my personal opinion and others may enjoy these interviews).
But if he is thrust into this role to distract the fans’ attention from the team’s struggles or to make the game more watchable, I’m totally against it.
We can keep using ex-players for that and even do a re-run of the 05 06 season, rather than force players out of their comfort zone into the realm of television actors. I never asked for the Friends cast to play hockey, though I remember Ross being hit by a puck in one of the episodes.
Maybe superstition running a bit high, but like someone said above I’m also not worried about Aho. Sure I’d be worried if the management in the organization thinks that Aho alone can carry Pat Dwyer and Chad Larose to be a decent first line but I pray that is not going to happen. Even if Terevainen becomes a long term 2nd fiddle to Aho he is at very least a passable-good one if he can repeat this years production or at least be a 55 pt+ player from here on out. I think Aho will be a 1st line caliber player for a long time and I am more worried about how the Canes will fill out the other spots on their roster.
With Hanifin I don’t think you could have said it better Matt – the all star nomination was the worst thing that could have happened to inflate his value. His defensive play is BELOW replacement level and while his offensive play is possibly at a middle-pairing level already I do think a bridge deal would be okay. However, I do believe he will put it together and even if he never becomes a good defensive dman if he can improve to passable/average defensively and be an elite offensive dman he can be a top 4 dman moving forward. Hanifin probably wouldn’t sign it, but here is me saying I would give him 3.5 million across 8 full years and watch that deal be a value steal later on. He hasn’t earned Pesce/Slavin money in my opinion despite his offensive contributions.
PP time is limited and honestly I’ll leave it up to the coaching staff to pick who is best in what role. So if Slavin isn’t on the PP but can still put up 30 pts, that isn’t necessarily a waste that is actually a huge ASSET. So if you have two PP defensemen who have subpar 5v5 scoring and it nets out to 30 pts and Slavin can pocket 30 pts without PP time, you have 3 dman with 90 points. That is pretty good offensive production from the back end considering that many will continue to improve. If Slavin gets more pp time perhaps it is at the expense of Faulk or Hanifins point production severely drying up. It’s all about the net consequences of giving Slavin more pp time, not just the isolated effect on Slavin’s production which would probably be positive.
Furthermore, more PP time for Slavin importantly means more 5v5 post-PP shifts for Faulk and Hanifin, which from a defensive perspective is a lot more RISKY than using Slavin after a powerplay expires.
Moving forward the Canes have 3 dmen that can produce – Faulk, Slavin, Hanifin – and they have two reliable shutdown guys with TVR and Pesce. Mckeown, Fleury and Bean will all push to be long term parts of the crowded blueline and someday this franchise will deal a young controllable dman from a position of strength.
I’m not sure where Aho’s ceiling is. He’s so young that to project where he’ll end up in 3-4 years is probably folly. He seems to be a slightly smaller version of Backstrom, with maybe a bit more goal scoring attitude. If he ends up being as good as Nicklas then that will be a very good thing for the Canes. However, that still doesn’t place him in the top tier of players and if history shows us anything, it says you have to have at least one, and most often a couple, superstars on the roster. So as much as I like Aho, I try to temper expectations he’s going to be a franchise making type player. I don’t think he’s that guy.
Hanafin is an interesting case. I see a bridge deal coming, probably paying more than anyone would prefer given his play this season, but his upside trumps his potential downside. In two years, his bridge deal salary will be the baseline for an average d-man and then expansion team roster shenanigans start to kick in again so if it’s only money then it’s a risk taking on someone with his potential.
I don’t think Slavin is being hindered at all. He’s a defense-first guy, always has been and likely always will be. Just because Trippy claims his first stride is world class doesn’t make it so. He’d look awfully good alongside someone like Ghotesbiere, Subban or someone else who shoots the puck. When your teammates don’t score goals, you don’t get the opportunity to rack up assists. He’ll be fine, he just needs better partners both behind and above the blueline.
I’ll throw this out there again (off topic), if the new ownership could sign Ilya Kovalchuk for 7 million for one season, would you do it? The Canes have money and a need for scoring. They don’t have to give anyone up to get him. He’s 34, on the downside of his career but probably can still put up 25 goals or more. He’s a pretty good defensive player, supposedly a great teammate and brings those intangibles always talked about with veteran players. A little bit of size as well. I think it’s worth a discussion anyway.
With those intangibles you are discussing about Kovalchuk I think that makes it the unfortunate reality that he WONT come here. It’s not that I don’t see the Canes being interested, but with so many teams bound to be interested can the Canes really provide him with anything more than money? There are going to be other teams that offer money that will give him a better chance to compete and win a stanley cup unfortunately…
This franchise simply doesn’t have enough consistency and winning to draw a guy like Kovalchuk here who is probably chasing a stanley cup.
Besides there are other free agents this summer that are younger or cheaper and possibly a better multi-year fit for this franchise. Bozak, Perron, Nash, Stastny just to name a few.
I think it has been stated that it’s highly unlikely that a quality FA will come to Carolina. Not making the playoffs for nine years, plus the early bad publicity Dundon has gotten is a bad combination.
I really hope they stay away from Nash. An aging star that has had the reputation of not being in shape. The kind of bad signing the Canes have made in the past.
Nash, no thanks. Never been impressed with him.
Perron, ditto, maybe an ok guy for a bargain, but we have plenty of similar players already on the roster.
Kovi would make a lot more sense than those two, though I agree on the fact it’d be hard to land him.
I think we need to trade a d man pluspick and a roster player for someone good, young, decent term, wanting to help turn this team around. Plenty of time in the offseason to play GM and identify a target.
I hope the combination of the salary that the Canes can offer, and the canes being a team that, though it hasn’t hit its stride, is still a promising squad in need of retooling could lure somebody to come here and be part of the solution.