With the change in ownership, management, coaching, the captain and a number of players since the start of the 2017-18 season, Hurricanes fans entered the 2018-19 season hoping that the changes would yield different results. And in the NHL reshuffling the deck completely does have the potential to yield results. But in wishing and hoping that different would mean better, the potential for overoptimism crept in.
Evidence for the ‘R’ word
If one considered the details heading into the season, the situation was very clearly that of a team that was rebuilding.
Consider that:
* The team was relying on a rookie head coach without assistants with head coaching experience to lean on. There was going to be a learning curve for Brind’Amour.
* The team entered the season with five rookie forwards in the lineup and hopes/expectations that two rookies (Necas and Svechnikov) would be able to hit the ground running as scorers at the NHL level. Likely at least some of these players would struggle a bit stepping up to the NHL level.
* And finally, the team was content to enter the season with two goalies who could be considered reclamation projects fighting for the starting goalie slot. Though the goaltending and last try on Scott Darling did cost the team some games early in the season, the goaltending has actually become a strength.
In a league where more than half of the teams make the playoffs and surprising young teams rise up every year, anything was possible, but just as likely as a surge upward was a season of growing pains for a young team. The youth of the team makes it possible at any point that things click with the young players and the team suddenly surges up the standings. But thus far, the season has been much more ‘learning on the job’, and it is very possible that this just continues.
Evaluating early results
Of the five rookie forwards who started the season in the NHL, Valentin Zykov is gone to waivers and Andrei Svechnikov to the AHL after not being ready at the start of the season. Warren Foegele started hot but disappeared from the score sheet and is now on pace for only 14 points in an 82-game season. More significantly, his ability to affect the game with his tenacious play and bull in a China shop mentality seems lost. Lucas Wallmark is competent as a two-way center, but he has been unable to generate much offensively. He is on target for 27 points. Finally, Andrei Svechnikov who entered the season as a Calder candidate is ranking 5th to 7th in most mid-season roundups. Like Wallmark, he has proven competent but not significantly better than that thus far. His 41-point pace is a nice first step for an 18-year old prospect, but in terms of slotting him on a good NHL team based only on actual results for the first half of the season, he would be a decent third-liner providing depth scoring. When one nets it out, the Canes rookies have played like rookies. That is not a bad thing long-term if these players can continue to improve, but it is not recipe for being a great team in the here and now.
An enthralling preseason without a regulation loss followed by a 4-0-1 start to the 2018-19 regular season offered the possibility that the changes combined with Brind’Amour’s leadership had instantly transformed the team into a winner. But the longer run has increasingly looked like more of the same with the team mustering good games here and there but also too many efforts that were just not good enough. It is a subjective opinion, but during the team’s recent struggles, Brind’Amour has reminded me of the end of Kirk Muller and Bill Peter’s runs where the only answer seemed to be a general “we need to do better” and not much for answers or tactical or other changes that make a difference.
As noted above, the goaltending that was arguably the biggest question mark entering the season has actually been a positive.
So what’s next?
The team will need to right the ship soon or it to matter for 2018-19, but with a young team the potential is always there that things click and that the team plays at a much higher level down the stretch. But the higher probability is that the team continues to grow and learn but also hit bumps along the way that make for mixed results.
Most interesting will be watching to see what management does. Will it allow a rebuilding season to run its course like Francis did and collect a return at the trade deadline? Or will Dundon’s self-described dislike of losing prompt moves aimed at making something out of the 2018-19 season? With the team falling off the playoff pace at a rapid rate recently, time is quickly running out to make changes aimed at 2018-19 results.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think it is accurate to say that the 2018-19 season should have been labeled a rebuilding year from the outset? Or is this just hindsight being 20/20?
2) Of the rookie forwards who are still learning as NHLers, do you think any will break through and become more than serviceable NHLers by the end of the 2018-19 season?
3) What are the chances that the young team puts it together all of a sudden and charts a different path up and into the playoffs with a second half surge led by the young guns?
Go Canes!
1.I would say it was 20/20 hindsight. Or at least almost everybody thought goaltending would be our undoing, as usual.
2.Svetchnikov. He seems to get better every goame.
3.You mean like a repeat of 08-09? It’s not impossible.
1) it is not accurate to say that this season should have been labeled a “rebuilding season”. Nor would it be accurate to label it so now.
2 and 3) c’mon Matt. Why have written off these guys and this season?
Our goalkeeping problems seem to have vanished. Even if only for now. Take heart, gang! Maybe we’ll have some injuries and you can say,”See? See? I told ya so!”
Our pk problems have worked themselves out. Of course credit cannot go to the coaching staff. You guys have already established your case against them. Blame them for anything that goes wrong. No credit when things improve.
Our pp is still sputtering. Coaching is incompetent. And so on, as nauseum.
Ownership is cheap and is sabotaging the team. Bring back Mr. K! He was so much better. Are you guys crazy?
Get a grip! We are Canes fans. That means we should support the team. At least once in a while.
And please don’t shovel that steaming stinky stuff about having fun speculating about trades.
You guys are depressing.
1. Perhaps it is a rebuilding year. The franchise seems to be caught in the vortex of mediocrity.
2. Svech is doing well and needs time to develop. He seems to be improving and I am impressed with what he brings to the ice both offensively and defensively.
3. Let’s face it, the team’s offensive production, for the most part, is dependent on a crew of young kids to carry the team. Having the young talent is exciting, but it also brings growing pains and uneven play. Who knows, we could hit a hot streak in the new year or we could continue whirl in the vortex of mediocrity.
Trades need to be made and I am curious if anything occurs in the near future or before the trade deadline. If not, I will be anxious to see if Dundon is willing to make needed investments in the team over the summer. Time will tell…
The difference between this year’s mediocrity versus the last 9 years is simple. This year we are riding the NHL .500 line with youth as our core in our forward group (Svech, Wallmark, Foegele and probably most impressive is Aho centering the top line). Our future 2C is tearing it up at the AHL level which bodes well. This is not the team from yesterday with a veteran core of E. Staal, Skinner and Ward riding the team to mediocre finishes. My point, the current team is far from their ceiling.
Do we need more oomph via trade? Yes. Can we still make a run? Absolutely.
We may even land a stud forward and still miss the playoffs. Either way whatever moves are made (or not made) will be with an eye towards 2019-2020 when we will be more ready to compete in the Eastern Conference.
And here I started reading this article thinking the” R” word was relocation! LOL!
1. I don’t believe the season was intended as a rebuild. TD is highly competitive and did not want a team to rebuild it. In fact he kind of followed the Mark Cuban model – a fortuitous draft pick (Nowitzki) and a massive change in the roster (Mavs shipped out 5 or 6 players, including core players).
I think it was a flawed perspective on the part of the O/M/C triumvirate – however it was spread out – that led to some questionable decisions.
Food for thought: We were a couple of hundred thousand apart with Lindholm. And Lindholm has gone on to prove he is an excellent center with offensive wingers and Skinner is an excellent winger with a strong center. Did Peters even try Lindholm centering Skinner in his 4 years here?
2. Svech is only going to get better. Wallmark is proving himself to be a shutdown center – how many rookie NHL centers demonstrate that. Plus he has an excellent offensive upside. And Bishop is a legitimate 4L/disruption line center. I think all can improve – whether they make a difference to turn around the season or not is up in the air. I don’t see Necas coming back – Vellucci has already talked about the entry level draft regarding the team’s plans for him this season.
3. There is always a chance. Didn’t NJD have a good year last season with a mix of young and old? Didn’t the Canes rally after the 2017 (or 2016?) trade deadline and get within hollering distance of the playoff line?
I am more concerned with the impact on the psyche of the players – losing is a cancer (an almost winning is not a cure). Combine alleged contract issues with an impact player who started off this season when things were good saying he wanted to stay here beyond this season, and questions develop.
I said “entry level draft” – I met the expansion draft.
Whether we call it a rebuild or not, we’re clearly not good enough right now. I think we all recognized at the start of the season that our offense was hanging on some of our rookies rising up to assume more substantial roles ahead of plan – specifically Svetch, Necas, and Zykov.
I think Svetch has been fine – not Laine – but as advertised and getting much better very quickly. He does not look at all out of place with Aho/TT. I’ll tolerate some rookie oopses defensively as the price for learning on the job.
As for Necas: he just wasn’t ready yet. He seems to be tearing it up in CLT and may be ready soon. One thing I don’t get about the contract talk: if we were willing to let him play this year in Raleigh earlier, why wouldn’t we be ready for him to play now if he’s ready? The cost-benefit of adding his production would seem to be worth the very speculative value of the last year of team control – IF he can add production this season.
As for Zykov – the way that transpired was a big mystery that may remain unsolved. A real head-scratcher.
The gamble we made on offense this year seemed very similar to the gamble we made on defense the year before that didn’t pay off either: hoping that young players would rise up ahead of schedule and then they didn’t. Again, I think a “trade that didn’t happen” was a part of the defensive story last year and is a big part of the offensive story this year. I still think that’s coming and would make a difference.
We’re going to need more than our rookies to step up though; in fact, it’s actually NOT our rookies that are underperforming the most: Rask (2-pts in 16-games), Staal (11 in 29), McGinn (7 in 36), PDG (4 in 21); and that’s before talking about more our offense from our defense.
If we figure out our PP like we figured out our PK, it’ll go a long way towards turning some of these close games around. It just has to happen soon. I think there is plenty of time to figure it out. The odds are getting longer, but it’s certainly possible.
PS … It sure is comforting to be getting good goaltending. I don’t have to see much more of Mrazek before I commit to him for two more years at a fair price. More than almost anyone else on the roster, he is earning it this year.
If it was my comment on Necas that you found confusing that is probably because I whoopsied – I shouldn’t have said entry level draft but expansion draft. When Vellucci was asked by Jason Shaya in gameday interview about the prospects of Necas being moved back up, Vellucci mentioned the expansion draft as being a team consideration – first time that has been brought up.
Interestingly, Zykov was released on waivers from EDM today. Do you want to make Mike Vellucci a happy man? – pick up Zykov on the waiver wire and send him back to CLT (I don’t think he would need to clear waivers under the circumstances).
It is true that this year we are riding a 500 with a core of young players that have not reached their ceiling, and that is a welcome change from years past. Also the checkers are playing really well and disciplined and we have yet to audition some of their key players for the NHL.
And, yes, full credit for an improved PK (though the PK cost us yesterday’s game but it has been great of late, while the PP has fallen off, the trick is to get enough things clicking at the same time to win games).
I would sign the duo of Mrazek for 2.5 mill and Mac for 1.5 mill for a couple of years based on what we’ve seen. We lucked out there.
I’m still just absolutely worn out with the excuses, justifications and continued losses, I’d rather see the team tank now, draft one of the impact players and go all in for 2019/2020.
This year I want to see auditions, a trade for forward upgrade and resigning of aho, TT (if deal is reasonable), Ferland, and the goalie duo.
Then I want to see some signings over the summer and a team that has no excuses and aims for a deep playoff run in 2020.
I agree about the frustration on results, and the familiar excuses, justifications and narratives after each loss.
But what we want and what we are going to see are two different things.
Ferland – per some social media sources with credibility, negotiations are not going well; the two sides are far apart so growing consensus of a trade at the deadline.
Mrazek – he is doing what he wants to be doing this season and that is showing he can be a started; he knows he will be in demand as a UFA and will probably – if he is smart – take bids on his services rather than settling for a lower contract.
Turbo – he has arbitration rights in the summer; I would not be surprised to see him play that card rather than accept a lowball or “reasonable” offer.
Aho – ????; this is a real wild card for me.
Given that the issue has been flat and uninspired play in many losses I really don’t think the team has a basis for any excuses this year.
Speaking of flat, Kuokkanan apologists should take notice of his lazy play at the NHL level. I get he’s been playing on lower NHL lines but c’mon…Svech worked his way up and so did others in the past. Kuokkanan is AHL material at best (right now). Bishop and Foegele are at least noticeable and NHL depth options moving forward. The team has to someday stop talking advanced B.S. stats and just bring it! This is where the playoff teams separate from us, they figure it out before us fans do.
This has always been the 4th year of the rebuild. RF was slow and methodical by design. His rebuild plans extended well past 3 years. New owner, rookie coach, a few trades weren’t changing that reality. RF always put building defense ahead of offense in his rebuild strategy. That strategy, coupled with his weakness in identifying future NHL forwards in trades or the draft, have put us where we are: solid defensively, substandard offensively.
Chances are slim to none for the team to climb back into the playoffs. Too many points, too many teams in the way. The team would need to be better the last half of the season than Washington was in the first half to reach relevancy. Just not happening, even with all the rookies moving up the learning curve.
For me the “R” word is now “rchoke”, simply because our UFAs are attractive and we need to draft as early and often in every round as possible to eventually end perennial bridesmaid status in the league standings.