In my Daily Cup of Joe for Monday, I talked about the Hurricanes having a two-year window through the 2020-21 season based on receiving about $7 million of cap relief not tied to actual roster players with Patrick Marleau and Justin Faulk coming off the books. That combined with only modest salary escalation from players needing to be re-signed or replaced means that it could be possible to bring back all of the key parts of the 2019-20 roster and add a player or two.
The math changes the following summer heading into the 2021-22 season when the team must re-sign Andrei Svechnikov and either re-sign or replace Dougie Hamilton. For the first time in the team’s history, it will be up against the cap ceiling and be forced to manage that situation like other teams do year in and year out.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes an early look at building that 2021-22 Carolina Hurricanes roster.
In goal
The goalie situation is completely TBD. Both Petr Mrazek and James Reimer are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents before the 2021-22 season. Ideally, Alex Nedeljkovic fills at least a backup role on what should be an inexpensive contract. It is possible that either Reimer or Mrazek could still be in the mix as a 1A/1B depending on their play between now and then, but I would not consider either even remotely close to a lock to be on the roster at that point.
Core: None
Potential Core: Alex Nedeljkovic.
On defense
For the 2021-22 season, the core will still be Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce on defense. Both players will still be in their prime and signed to salary cap-friendly deals. With trade deadline lunacy on the way, it is a good time to remind yourself that neither of those players is going anywhere. Past that, things become more uncertain. If he rebounds from his injury and plays even remotely close to his 2019-20 level, the Hurricanes will want to make Hamilton a third core defenseman, but the potential for him to become an unrestricted free agent with huge scoring totals adds significant uncertainty. I am not sure the Hurricanes will be willing or able to pay maximum dollar on a long-term deal. So if Hamilton wants to go the highest bidder route, he might not be in it for the long haul.
Past Slavin, Pesce and possibly Hamilton, the blue line becomes much more uncertain out to 2021-22. I am on record as doubting that either Joel Edmundson or Trevor van Riemsdyk return after becoming free agents this summer. It is not that the Hurricanes would not either player. I actually think either would be a great fit for a #5 slot. But the issue is that I do not see the Hurricanes being willing to commit significant dollars or term to that slot with the salary cap challenges that start the next summer. As such, I think both players will be better off financially on the open market and will leave based on that. Jake Gardiner would ideally be either the third or fourth part of the core. But though he has been somewhat better of late, putting him into the lineup long-term in anything but pencil would be putting the cart before the horse. Then there is Haydn Fleury who is arguably the player most likely to be lost in the NHL expansion draft. But if he is not plucked away by Seattle, Fleury would figure to still be at least a depth defenseman on an inexpensive contract.
When one nets it out, the Hurricanes have two, maybe three, core defensemen in Slavin, Pesce and Hamilton, but the rest of the 2021-22 blue line is pretty open right now.
Core: Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce.
Potential Core: Dougie Hamilton, Jake Gardiner.
At forward
At forward, I see the top-end core as being Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas. Necas has some work to do to join this group, but even if his development is modest, he still figures to at least be a top 9 forward. As I discussed in yesterday’s article, I think ideal would be for Necas to shift back to center like Aho did. I think the peak version of the Hurricanes a couple years out would require having two legitimate scoring lines to balance load. Necas has the skill set to be a catalyst for such a second scoring line if he can make the transition back to center and meet the requirements for two-way play in a second line center slot.
That group of four will certainly be joined by other players currently on the roster, but I do not see the others as integral. Jordan Staal is likely to still be filling a similar role, but he will be 33 years old when the 2021-22 season begins. Lucas Wallmark could also fill a Jordan Staal-like defensive-leaning role.Warren Foegele is also very likely to still be in the mix. Other players could be as well, but I really think the definite core is smaller than some people might think.
Core: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas.
Potential Core: Jordan Staal, Warren Foegele, Lucas Wallmark.
Netting it out
When I net it out, I really think Don Waddell ends up being key for the goalie position. Unless Nedeljkovic rises up and pulls a Jordan Binnington in 2020-21, the goalie position is two blank slots for Waddell to fill. On defense, Slavin and Pesce are a great starting point, but I think the key to the defense will be some combination of convincing Hamilton to re-sign for a reasonable salary and also Gardiner’s trajectory. At forward, one has to like the young core especially if Martin Necas continues to develop, but I do not think the team is as deep as some believe. Ideally the forward group gets more help from the prospect pool by 2020-21.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you think about the players I identified as core for 2021-22? Are there any that you would add? Are there any that you would subtract?
2) What does your crystal ball say about goaltending for 2021-22 given that my version has no sure things and potentially two open slots?
3) On defense, do you consider Hamilton or Gardiner part of the core for 2021-22 and beyond?
4) From the prospect pool of players not currently at the NHL level, which player(s) o do you think are most likely to rise up and fill key roles by 2021-22?
Go Canes!
Really curious to see how Ned will do in the NHL. Goaltending definitely remains the biggest question long term.
If Waddell can sign Dougie to a reasonable deal, I like our future with Pesce, Slavin, Dougie core + Fleury, Bean, UFA signing for 4-5 type dman.
Definitely still need that 2C long term – maybe Necas can grow into that. I think Wallmark could still hit another level with high end wingers.
Well, damn. I really liked the post I wrote but never submitted… 🙁
Matt. Discussions like this are what make C&C the best. I really think the biggest Cup window for the Canes begins in 21-22 as both Svech and Necas should be close to prime production.
1) Your placement of core players is accurate. Given the cap hits for Svech and Necas (both should be signed 7-8 years if possible), there won’t be much salary available. I think the plan for forwards must necessarily include prospects stepping up (perhaps Suzuki or Geekie at 3C; Kuokkanen/Bokk/Gauthier maybe even Puistola as a scoring winger) and prospects filling in (Luostarinen, Lorentz, Cotton, Drury, Rees) the bottom lines.
2) I see Ned as an NHL starter by 21/22 or 22/23. The main stat with Ned is wins—he has been a winner at every level, including his one NHL start.
3) Gardiner is signed through 22-23. Unless the Canes make a deal at the expansion draft that includes him, his potential and contract will keep him at least on the periphery of the core.
I am in the minority that thinks Hamilton leaves. Given that Trouba signed for 8M, I can’t see Dougie accepting less than 9M. As well as he has played, the Canes will need to spend on Svech and Necas in their prime—spending on Hamilton will include years past his prime. If Bean gets a chance with PP time, I think he can be a 10g/40p D-man, which while it doesn’t fully replace Dougie’s goals, will be enough.
4) By 21-22 I think both Ned and Bean will be fixtures. Also expect two of Luostarinen/Lorentz/Drury/Rees to be in the bottom six. The key is can one of the “scorers” indicated above fill out a line with one of the Big 4.
In two years time, I think we will probably feel that one forward in the system – maybe Suzuki or Gauthier, etc. – and probably Bean (but maybe someone else) will also be core, maybe not because they are contributing at that level yet, but because they will be on an exciting upward trajectory. But to the point of this article, they aren’t current roster players so aren’t core.
I would add Haula to the list if we re-sign him, though admittedly the general vibe of that doesn’t seem like it’s trending in that direction.
My sense of Dougie is that he likes it here and feels super-comfortable in Raleigh, unlike his experience in any of his prior homes in BOS or CGY, and he also seems like the type who values that sort of thing. Will he value it to the tune of a few million/year or extra term? Tough to say, but it wouldn’t surprise me. (He won’t occupy an Expansion Draft slot unless we re-sign him early, so that gives us more flexibility.)
When you analyze it like this and then compare it to the Expansion Draft requirements, it actually doesn’t look that bad for us.
Were Dougie to be unsigned at the time of the Seattle draft he could be chosen by the Kracken(?) and count as the pick that Seattle gets from the Canes in the expansion draft. (That was how the Vegas selection of Marc Andre Fleury from Pittsburgh happened.)
My gut is the Canes will sign Hamilton barring any odd dropoff in play or something unforeseen. That gives the Canes 4 D you can expect will be here. Pesce, Slavin, Hamilton, and Gardiner. Not a Gardiner fan, but it’s not like teams will be lining up to get him. I agree that Fleury will be a more attractive pickup if Francis decides to take a D from the Canes.
Outside of maybe Bean (sounds like his stock is up in the org) I think it’s dangerous to assume the AHL players will be ready to go. None are locks for the NHL. If one doesn’t pan out the team can be left holding the bag. Outside of first round picks players have to take their spot in the show. Ryan Suzuki and whoever the Canes draft in the first round this season will get the chance to make that squad as well.
I don’t think you can count on Ned being here either. If the Canes believed he was their future starter he would already be here in some way. I’m not knocking Ned, just watching what the Canes do and how they treat the guy.
1. The core will likely match up with the players we protect for the Seattle expansion draft. Assuming 7 F, 3 D and 1 G:
Forwards – Aho, Teravainen, Svech, Staal (No Movement Clause requires him to be protected), Haula, Wallmark and Foegele. Necas is exempt and his salary will still be only $863,333. When Haula is healthy he is a dynamic player and should receive a contract extension.
Defense – Slavin, Pesce and Hamilton.
Goalie – Ned.
2. Ned should be the starting goalie. Remember that his minimum base salary rises from $70,000 to $750,000 next year.
3. Hamilton should be part of the core. I don’t see a cap problem even with Svechnikov receiving a gigantic raise. A possible wildcard and under the radar is Oliwer Kaski. He is doing well in Charlotte and set scoring records as a defenseman in the Finnish league.
4. Gauthier, Nedelkovic, Bean and Bokk are my favorites to be in the lineup in 2021-22.
I view a core player as a player who has a level of skill/effectiveness on a team that he cannot be readily replaced and is a player we want to retain. Under this definition most of your “potential core” are not core – Hamilton would be the exception; it will be his decision by signing with the team to become part of the defensive core with Slavin and Pesce. But everyone else we have is replaceable – and if the Gardiner experiment lasts that long and he is still on the team I wouldn’t consider him core. His skill set can be easily enough replaced.
For the forwards – Aho, Turbo, and Svech are core. Necas is potential core based on his development. But Foegele and Wallmark? – they may be good players and good to have but it is not like they cannot be replaced from within or without the organoization.
Staal is the interesting one – I was throwing around the concept of “core” in my head yesterday relative to Staal. And as important as he has been – with another offensive center and a player like Wallmark on the 4th Staal slips from being core – particularly as his games slows down.
What we do next year will decide what we have in 2021-22. I expect Ned is up as backup to either Mrazek or Reimer, and one of those two are gone. Then Ned can be promoted to starter (or 1A/1B) in 2021-22 and become core.
As far as prospects – Suzuki is the wildcard. By 2021-22 he will have year in at the AHL level, and we will have a better idea of what we have with him – he may be that offensive-minded center. The “next Foegele” may well be Lorentz. Geekie could step up and fill Wallmark’s role as a cost-effective 3/4-C. I think players like Gauthier, Kuokkanen will be on their way to proving they are excellent career AHLers or – as with Brown, Poturalski, Roy – be on their way to opportunities with other teams. I don’t see D core in our prospect pool – even if Bean or Sellgren are with the big club, I think they qualify as “parts”, the same way Fleury does now.
When this rebuild was committed to Ron Francis, a commitment to let players “over ripen” in the AHL before bringing was made. “The committee” has pretty much held to that philosophy. If nothing else Ned is “over ripe”. His time is at hand.