The Carolina Hurricanes are many years removed from having a true top scoring line. Probably not coincidentally, the Carolina Hurricanes are also many years removed from making the NHL playoffs.
For most of the dry spell, Eric Staal centered a first line that simply did not have enough fire power around him. When that paired with a scoring decline for Eric Staal, the team had nothing close to first line scoring. With the elder Staal’s departure, Jordan Staal became the team’s top center. But as good as Jordan Staal is at what he does well, he just does not play at a high enough level offensively to center a true scoring line. Despite playing most of the 2017-18 season with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen, Staal finished with a modest 46 points. By the end of the season, the team was tinkering with other possibilities around Aho and Teravainen with Aho at center a couple options tried for the third slot. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers both near-term and longer-term possibilities for building a legitimate first scoring line around Aho and Teravainen.
Both Aho and Teravainen posted impressive mid-60s point totals in 2017-18, but that still leaves them and the third line mate a bit short of the point per game pace that I consider to be a rough target for a true top scoring line. Further, I think how much higher they can go will be limited unless a capable third line mate is added.
I see a few possibilities both short-term and long-term:
Valentin Zykov
Following a tremendous AHL season scoring-wise, Zykov received and performed well in a short nine-game audition at the end of the 2017-18 season. Zykov rates average-ish or possibly even a notch lower in terms of skating, but otherwise he brings a nice complementary skill set for a scoring line. He plays well without the puck which fits well with Aho and Teravainen who both lean ‘keep it’. In addition, Zykov brings a power forward/crease crashing element to a scoring line. Finally, he possesses enough skill and finishing ability to be a finisher on a scoring line. Zykov has played his way up to being considered for this role for 2018-19, but the question is whether he is truly capable of being a top line forward or if he is just a short-term solution.
Micheal Ferland
Newcomer Micheal Ferland played much of the 2017-18 season in a role pretty similar to the slot next to Aho and Teravainen. He excelled for just over half of a season on a first scoring line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan before fading down the stretch. Like Zykov, Ferland brings a complementary power forward skill set to a scoring line. His physical presence on the forecheck and simple game going to the front of the net fit well on a scoring line, but as with Zykov, the question is whether he is legitimately a first line forward or if he is just a capable fill in the aims more for lineup balance than creating a true first scoring line.
Andrei Svechnikov
Out of the players on the current roster, Andrei Svechnikov most projects to be a true first line forward. If the projections for him are on target, he is every bit the player that the Hurricanes want next to Aho and Teravainen. But the questions are twofold. First, what is the timeline for Svechnikov’s readiness for such a high-profile role. Second, would the team be better off filling this slot with another player hoping that Svechnikov can grow with Martin Necas to provide a second scoring line and the depth and balance that is common with winning teams.
Help from outside
With the aim of not rushing Svechnikov in his rookie season and also building for scoring depth, I continue to think that ideal short-term is to add one more proven scoring forward. Max Pacioretty is the biggest name allegedly on the trading block who would be a great fit, but there could be other players available. The potential to use Justin Faulk as a trade chip to obtain scoring help will continue to be in play.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you believe any other players on the current roster should be considered for the slot next to Aho and Teravainen?
2) Of the three players listed, who do you like best for the role?
3) Do you think Aho and Teravainen can produce more than the mid-60s points that they produced in 2017-18 without a higher-end forward added to their line? Or is finding a great third line mate required to push up to or near a point per game scoring pace?
Go Canes!
1) The only current player with any chance would be McGinn. I would think most Canes’ fans believe McGinn is more suited for the disruption line with Staal and/or Williams.
2) Zykov. Until something goes wrong, VZ has proven to be an offensive force. In 11 games (his career stats show 12, but I believe he only played 2 shifts in his second game in 16-17) he has 4g/4a. That is a 60+ point pace. His advanced stats are off the charts. For those who worry about him being a liability he is even on takeaway/giveaway. Yes he was sheltered with heavy offensive zone starts in 17-18. For his one game in 16-17 he played with Staal and Aho–so he actually had more defensive zone starts. While it was only one game, his numbers for that game were also dominant. Based on his statistical profile, it is not outrageous to say that even with below average skating he has enough elite skills to be a top scoring line forward. No doubt his shooting percentage will not 19% for an entire season, but every indication is that he is an elite shooter and excellent shot creator off rebounds. In the AHL he scored on 4 out of 5 shootout chances. Zykov can find the back of the net, which makes him an ideal complementary player for Aho and Zykov.
dmiller and I have had an interesting ongoing discussion regarding the strong-link theory of hockey. That theory seems to have proven mostly correct. Given that, it makes sense to have Aho and Svechnikov on the ice separately. That may not begin this year, but it should be the long range plan for Carolina.
I am not sold on Ferland. I have read tons of comments on different Flames’ sites that suggest that even for his most ardent admirers he was not considered a true top-scoring line talent.
3) Aho will likely get 75+ points this season because of Svechnikov and Zykov, even if neither is on his line. Because one of them is likely to be on the first power play unit. Players who get to point-per-game scoring typically get 30-35 of those points on the power play. Aho had 16 last season. For the same reason, I think Teravainen is going to end up between 65-70 points in 18-19. Now if TAZ continues to have success at 5-on-5, then Aho could end above 85 points and TT above 70. But that is truly best case.
It appears that Zykov is going to get the opportunity to play with Aho and TT to start the year. It is an experiment. 10 games is far to small a sample size to determine much of anything. He will need to be powerful and efficient down low. His skating isn’t even close to average. One of the worst skating NHL players I have seen in a while. This isn’t about straight line speed. You don’t need that in the NHL. Ask Rod Brind’Amour and Ron Francis. I hope he succeeds because we need a powerful player down low.
I have a hard time taking comments from Calgary fans with any kinds of confidence. Ferland will be judged on his own merits here. It’s not like fans really know what’s going on with a player unless it’s something obvious. Apparently there was some drama in the Calgary locker room last season. Hopefully a fresh start will help Ferland and Hamilton. Still, I think Zykov will get first crack at playing with Aho & TT.
While I would love to see Pacioretty here, I think there is almost no chance that happens. Why would he agree to come to Carolina? If that was going to happen it would have been done already. Dead horse.
Svechnikov should be treated like the 18 year old he is and given a chance to just play before he is given the responsibility to play on a either the first scoring line or defensive line. If he does well then you can consider making changes. He will have plenty of pressure being the high draft pick he is. No use adding more.
First off, I don’t see any can’t miss “SCORERS” on the team who fits your criteria. There are a couple possibles who looked good in the AHL, BUT…the NHL, is a different “kettle of fish”!
W/o an acquisition to get ++scoring, (or miraculous ROOKIE effort),
there is just a small chance that multiple players can significantly UP their scoring!
Much of what happens with TT and Aho will depend on what Rod wants to do with Aho, center or wing. If he runs with Aho as center, I think Zykov gets first crack as he’s “been there and done that.” If not Zykov, keeping with the Aho center theme, McGinn would seem to be a good fit. I wonder if Wallmark or Rask gets an audition as a center with TT and Aho? We know Staal could play with TT and Aho, but it’s not necessarily best fit. Rask and Wallmark may not be best fits either, but I think I like a Staal/Williams/McGinn more than a TSA line. Necas is one I would think could play there, but if we view Summerfest as a preview of Rod trying to get 2 scoring lines, Necas is tied to Svechnikov for now. Not sure if Kuokkanen or Saarela is quite ready, but maybe they get an audition with Aho/TT.
Aho and TT get to PPG with a better line mate, but as also mentioned above more PP points. I feel our PP will be MUCH improved with Hamilton manning one of the points. He’ll get some more attention, like Faulk used to, which should give a little more freedom to the other forwards.
McGinn would be in that Ferland category. I’d be interested to see a game with Foegele-Aho-TT. He’s fast, gritty, and scored all of his goals in AHL at 5v5. (Zykov scored half of his on PP last year. He could be perfect fit with Aho-TT, but he might also be better as PP specialist but otherwise on 2nd scoring line).
I think you also have to consider that RBA may want Aho on the wing. If that happens, could be Saarela, Necas, Kuokkanen, Staal starting on top line.
This team should be structured with two scoring lines. So I don’t really like the idea of Svech with Aho-TT. At the same time, go with what works. I hope RBA uses the pre-season to give a few different guys opportunities to play with Aho-TT.
I favor giving Zykov a shot, but for the long term, I’d like to mention Julien Gauthier as a possible right wing to play with Aho and Teravainen. Gauthier is a lot like Zykov – big, good shot, right shot, more goals than assists – but unlike Zykov, Gauthier can fly like the Finns.
As for Pacioretty, I’ve read that he has a limited no-trade clause. I don’t know if he would consider coming to Carolina. Let’s assume he would. I’ve also read that what Montreal wants for Pacioretty includes scoring. Gauthier has scoring potential and might have a special appeal to the Canadiens. He was born and played youth hockey in Pointe-aux-Trembles, Quebec, a part of Montreal. I wouldn’t favor trading for Pacioretty unless (given his age, 30 in November) he signs an extension for five years or less with the Canes. There would be other trade possibilities from the Canes’ side, including Roy (perhaps with special appeal in Montreal like Gauthier), Rask and Wallmark. And then there’s Faulk, although I don’t know how interested the Canadiens will be given the trend in Faulk’s play.
Pacioretty is close to a short-term sure thing. I’d still rather see what Gauthier and Roy and Wallmark can do instead of spending big in prospects and money on Pacioretty. If the Canadiens will take Faulk and the Canes don’t have to commit to six years of Pacioretty for megabucks, that would make sense. For multiple reasons, I just don’t see it happening. The Canes have plenty of assets to trade for Pacioretty but I don’t like giving those up for one year of Pacioretty or committing $8M a year to Pacioretty through his mid-thirties.
In my opinion Zykov is the logical choice for joining the Aho/T line until proven otherwise. His last year audition with the Canes was impressive…….plus he tore up the AHL. His overall shooting % in AHL was lights out at 30%, shoot out goals were 2 and 100% on his attempts, PPG 17, GWG 7. His net front presence gives the team an added dimension that we desperately need. I don’t consider him to be slow footed and positions himself well without the puck. He is a gamer and I watched him take over some games in Charlotte. I think this will be the best acquisition by Ron Frances era.
First of all, thank you Matt for posting an article on Labor Day. That is dedication indeed.
1) This question is more interesting than at first glance. As asked, it asks who would play “along side” of Aho and Turbo, implying on the wing. Given that, the question is still very interesting, given that Turbo and Aho are both left shots, with Turbo listed on the roster as a LW (as he was listed as a prospect) and Aho as a RW. We have become used to seeing left-shot turbo on the RW with Aho in the center.
Interestingly, Svechnikov is also a left-shot right wing. So we could see Svech on the RW with Turbo at LW and Aho in the center. Although that is a possibility, I really like the idea of right-shot Zykov on the LW with Aho in the center and left-shot Turbo on the RW. Mix it up a bit.
I haven’t seen Ferland or Martinook enough to have an opinion on them. Of the roster players, there is something intriguing about McGinn on the LW with Aho and Turbo. If we have a “Wild Bill” Karlsson type player, who could go from 20-30 pts/yr to 78 by moving him up, it is probably McGinn.
2) Zykov is my first choice probably simply because he had the audition and the team has shown an inclination to play Necas and Svechnikov together. Not only is Svech an interesting alternative, planting Necas between Aho and Turbo could also be a lot of fun. I expect to see lots of different combinations this year.
3) A high end (skilled) forward gives Turb-ho the best chance but some muscle down low could also do the trick. There are multiple scenarios that could see this line break out. Trying to create two breakout lines is significantly more restricted than just creating one.
Frequently good scoring lines are the result of good chemistry, so I would imagine that during camp we’ll see several line combos, eh?
Two other lines I’d like to see tried, both with Aho, and TT, WALLMARK centering them, or Foegele-W with Aho-C!
Other guys who could find a place on a line, are Maenalanen, Martinook, and Kuokkanen.
That’s assuming that another forward isn’t acquired.
In other words, I don’t have a CLUE WHAT GUYS ARE GOING TO MAKE THE TEAM?!!!
There two things I don’t know that make it hard for me to post here.
1. I don’t know what a “true top scoring line” really? Are there examples from other teams that meet this definition for comparison?
2. Is a “true top scoring line” necessary to team success?
RBA is on record on saying he might move Aho back to wing – so the notion of an Aho-centered line of any type may not have legs. If Aho is at center with Turbo on his wing I like the idea of a complementary player on the left – a play who plays a physical game, skates north-to-south, and isn’t afraid of being in/near the crease as being a perfect fit for those two – that could be McGinn, Ferland, Zykov or even Foegele (not sure Martinook has the speed). Everybody is giving that spot to Z, but if McGinn is better at hitting the net than the post this year that’s another 20-25 goals to add to Aho and Turbo.
I think Aho and Turbo both reach for the 70s this season, and a skills forward won’t be necessary for them to hit that mark.
If McGinn would turn half of those shots off the pipe into goals he might just do it!
McGinn doesn’t have good enough hockeyIQ to play with the Finns. He might play some great games but his decision making in general is not good/fast enough. Too many great plays would stop because of him. Whoever plays with Aho and TT needs to know how to use the extra time and space the Finns can create and not to waste it. Good hockeyIQ is the most important criteria.
Maybe RBA should just ask Aho who should play with him and TT.