Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is part 3 of 3 considering one of the projects that lies ahead for the Carolina Hurricanes during the current offseason – figuring out the center position heading into the 2018-19 season.
Part 1 last Friday looked at the recent history that lead up to this point.
Part 2 on Monday considered the options for going forward.
Today’s part 3 offers my thoughts on the various options and which direction I am leaning.
Jordan Staal as a foundation
Say what you want about Jordan Staal’s scoring totals as compared to other top centers in the league, but he still fits as a cornerstone of a good hockey team at the center position. No doubt, more scoring would be appreciated, but something like 50 in a role that does not ‘use up’ higher-end scoring talent on his wings and plays break even hockey against other teams’ best lines can be a valuable and contributing component on a playoff hockey team.
The key for this are the two things I mentioned plus one more. As stated above, Staal’s 50 points in the middle just is not enough if he plays between two scoring wings. His 19 even strength assists when flanked most of the season by Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen just are not enough. That duo is better-served aiming even higher (think a point per game), but that requires a more scoring-capable third. No doubt, the inevitable need to shuffle and spark a lineup here and there over the course of a long NHL season will see TSA reunited, but if Jordan Staal is truly the best available for Aho and Teravainen, I think it is a surefire sign that the Hurricanes are still light on raw offensive fire power.
Think Nestrasil/Staal/Nordstrom from the 2015-16 but with higher-end talent. As maligned as the plus/minus statistic is, it is the right one (so let’s call it ‘even strength goal differential’ or use a more advanced version like expected goal differential) for a Staal line with a primary role of quieting other teams’ best scoring lines.
In an ideal world, Staal would be flanked by another solid all-around forward capable of playing against other teams’ best and also a capable two-way wing with playmaking ability to provide some fuel for scoring. The peak version of Jussi Jokinen is the player who comes to mind. Jokinen was a player who could hold his own defensively and also bring a playmaking element from the wing. I do not like like the version of this line that just includes three two-way forwards who are light on ability to generate offense simply because it is just too hard to play even hockey with great scoring lines by shutting them out completely. The other possibility for this line is to take on a BBC (Brind’Amour-Battaglia-Cole) type persona that cycles the puck well and scores ugly by getting the puck to the point and bodies to the net.
Regardless, I think Staal makes a fine anchor on a top defensive line but only if there is a top offensive line to complement it.
From there the options are many but the sure things are few…
One of the kids (Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas)
People sometimes like to lump Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas into the same category as young players who are capable of centering legitimate first or second scoring lines at the NHL level.
But past having high offensive ceilings, I think the two players are wildly different.
Sebastian Aho is proven at the NHL level and clearly capable of putting up 60+ points in the 2018-19 season probably regardless of position.
As much as Martin Necas has the skill set and potential to similarly be a higher-end scorer at the NHL level, the schedule for that is very uncertain. As much as Necas showed flashes of brilliance in preseason, he finished with a lone power play assist and nothing to show for even strength ice time in six games of preseason action and only two shots on net. There was an element of line mates not finishing, but there was also a significant element of his game still having gaps. He has the skating ability and creativity to push pace and get the puck into situations that cause duress for an NHL defense, but his ability to convert that directly to passing lanes and scoring chances was still unrefined. And he lacked the kind of shot that kept NHL defenses honest at this early stage of his development. Long story short, Necas’ skating ability and creative style of play offer a HUGE ceiling, but anyone who considers him a sure thing for the 2018-19 season has been blinded a bit by headlines and highlights and maybe missed a broader assessment of where Necas was as a complete player in September.
Another significant difference is the each player’s skill set. Aho brings a nice balance of finishing and playmaking, and even when playing more in the role of a puck distributing center still tends to play around rather than through the defense most times. That finishing skill set and maneuvering type playmaking lends itself nearly equally well to being effective as a scoring wing or a playmaking center. In my opinion, a move to center by Aho is more a function of team need rather than a necessity to maximize his offensive production.
Necas is another story. As noted above, at least the 1.0 version of Necas last fall was heavy on playmaking and puck distributing ability and light on shooting and finishing ability. In addition, whereas much of Aho’s puck distribution comes more from buying time and making space often to the outside, Necas’ skill is set is more that of the best NHL centers today who forge a path straight into the teeth of the defense and force them to make tough decisions while under attack. That potential to attack by forging a path straight into and through the middle of the defense like the MacKinnons, McDavids and Crosbys of the NHL is the most intriguing part of Necas’ game. So whereas, I think the wing versus center decision for Aho is more a function of what the team needs, I think the wing versus center decision for Necas is more a matter of Necas’ skill set at least for the 2018-19 season. More directly, I do not get where some people think that moving Necas to wing could be an option depending on who slots at center. It just not play to what he does well (playmaking in the center of the rink) and instead brings to the forefront the shooting/scoring part of his game that is not nearly as advanced development-wise.
One commonality between Aho and Necas is the room for growth away from their strengths as offensive players. Both players have work to do in the face-off circle. And both players are prone to play a ‘squishy’ game in the neutral zone and entering the defensive zone playing defense. ‘Squishy’ has become my term for generally being in the right general place and doing the right general thing, but not so much understanding and aggressively taking away skating and passing lanes.
Especially if the Hurricanes do not add at the center position from outside of the organization this summer, how quickly at least one of these two players grows to become a true top 6 center instead of a good young center with the potential to be that could have a huge say in whether the Hurricanes make the playoffs in 2019.
What about Victor Rask, Derek Ryan and Marcus Kruger?
With a $3.1 million salary cap hit and $2.3 million salary, Marcus Kruger could be tough to deal, but I think that is exactly what the Hurricanes must do even if it means eating salary or packaging him into a bigger deal. The Hurricanes forward depth has progressed to the point where the potential is there to at least begin working toward more of a balance four-line attack like other deep teams are beginning to use. Especially with the need for more scoring, that approach should have a scoring-capable center in a depth role. While there is a chance that Kruger just is not movable, the goal should be to free up the roster spot and as much salary as possible.
Per part 2, I am probably in the minority in thinking that Derek Ryan could be a useful part of the roster if paid and slotted correctly. I like him as a #13 forward who brings depth and a versatile skill set at a modest price of $1-1.2 million. While by no means elite, he is capable depth-wise as a face-off man, center or right wing, power play player and depth scorer. That is a lot for a modest price and worth keeping. The question is price and roster slots. His $1.425 million salary in 2017-18 is already a tiny bit on the high side for the role described. If another team sees him as an an inexpensive third-line center and is willing to pay him accordingly, he quickly becomes too pricey for where I see him slotting with the Hurricanes. In addition, there are only so many depth forwards who can be retained and still leave room for the AHL brigade to win roster spots. If Kruger cannot be moved and the team opts to retain Joakim Nordstrom for his penalty killing, there might be no room at the inn for Ryan.
Finally, there is Victor Rask. Especially if it is partly to free up salary and roster space to add a higher-end center, I think Rask could be expendable. But at the same time, he is not a player that I would desperately sell low on after a sub-par 2017-18 season. No doubt, Rask is overpriced at $4 million per year right now coming off of a lackluster campaign offensively. But he is still a capable NHL center who at a minimum slots nicely as fourth-line depth of the two-way variety even if his price is a bit high for that role.
If I try to balance what I would like to do with what I think is actually possible, I think Victor Rask stays because his trade value just is not worth it right now for a capable proven two-way center. I think Kruger somehow goes with the Hurricanes eating salary in the process. And I think Ryan could go either way. By no means do I think the Hurricanes would enter and win any kind of bidding war to retain him, but I think he fits as a versatile known quantity in a depth role for the right price.
The X factor – Lucas Wallmark
Buried well beneath Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas on the ‘exciting youth’ depth chart is Lucas Wallmark. I see him as an X factor. The eye test and scouting of Wallmark suggests a much lower ceiling than either Aho or Necas in terms of raw skill set. He is a notch lower in terms of mobility and a player who turns 23 before the start of the 2018-19 season, he maybe is farther up his improvement curve. But a couple factors are in his favor. First is that he is coming off of a phenomenal AHL season with 55 points in only 45 games. What’s more, his trajectory in terms of improvement continues to be steep despite the fact that he is a bit farther into his professional career. Could he have another year or two of continued growth in him at the NHL level that breaks right through the rather modest ceiling that most scouts and analysts expect for him? That is worth watching if he gets a crack at the NHL level for the 2018-19 season.
Considering only the internal options initially
If forced to consider only the internal options, I like the idea of balancing a lineup between ‘sound’ and ‘opportunistic’. Jordan Staal anchors one line that can play in any situation against any opponent. Victor Rask centers another line built somewhat similarly. Important to note is that ‘sound’ cannot go to the extreme that it has no scoring potential. There must be some balance to it, but maybe these two lines are filled more by players like Justin Williams and Elias Lindholm from the veterans and players like Warren Foegele from the rookies such that the key components tend to be on the higher-end defensively.
Then you balance that with two lines that aim for opportunistic scoring. The first line is centered by Sebastian Aho, and the other line has an opening there to be won by Martin Necas in training camp. If Necas just is not ready yet, then Lucas Wallmark would be another option. With two lines that lean offense and two that are sounder defensively but still stocked with at least decent depth scoring, the coach has the potential to adjust a bit based on game situation. In a game with a one-goal lead in the third period, the bench could be shortened a bit with three lines heavier in veterans. With a deficit in the third period, there is nothing wrong with giving skilled young players a chance to make a difference.
With reasonably balanced ice time, you get something like…
____/Aho/Teravainen
____/Staal/Lindholm
Skinner/Necas/Foegele
McGinn/Rask/Williams
Extras: Some couple of Di Giuseppe, Ryan, Nordstrom, Kruger
I doubt the Hurricanes would be able to add both, but the Holy Grail would be to add a veteran finisher for Aho/Teravainen and a capable defensive player with playmaking ability for Staal/Lindholm.
Max Pacioretty (via trade) or James van Riemsdyk (free agent) would fit the bill for a finishing complement with some size for Aho’s line.
Looking externally to push now and buy time for youth
With the goal of not just rebuilding for forever and/or rolling dice on the rapid development of youth, I do still like the idea of making one big addition at center from outside of the current roster.
Ryan-Nugent Hopkins jumps out as likely available and reasonably close to what the Hurricanes need. Nugent-Hopkins has shifted into more a secondary role with more defensive emphasis since Connor McDavid arrived in Edmonton, but I actually think that just makes Nugent-Hopkins even better. He still possesses the offensive ability had him centering a top scoring line only a few years ago, but he is now also battle tested in a tougher role defensively. I could see him centering the Aho/Teravainen combination. And I think the timing might be right for a player for player deal that sees a piece of the Hurricanes playoff-less core moved out. I also like the idea of adding a more scoring-oriented center either for or simultaneous to trading Victor Rask to change the balance of skill set that the team has in the middle of the ice.
The challenge is building a list of good options who are actually available. Past Nugent-Hopkins the list of top 6-capable centers likely to be available is limited.
Netting it out
Though it feels a bit like another stage of rebuilding with hope of early returns, I would be okay with entering the season with something like Aho, Staal, Rask and Necas or Wallmark filling the four center slots possibly with Derek Ryan as an extra IF the Hurricanes also add a proven scoring wing to fill out Aho’s line.
That said, I would take a run at Nugent-Hopkins too, within reason. I think the Hurricanes need to change the core a bit anyway, so a player for player trade for Nugent-Hopkins sort of kills two birds with one stone.
What say you Canes fans?
On day 3 of Canes center-gate, who still has more thoughts and opinions on how to complete this puzzle?
1) Do you think there is need to add one more veteran center from outside the organization?
2) Between Aho, Staal, Lindholm, Rask, Ryan, Kruger and Necas, who are you four centers if the team goes with internal options for the 2018-19 season?
3) Should we just go full fun and put Martin Necas between Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen and let them have at it?
Go Canes!
1. It’ll be interesting to see how the Canes handle the center position. I say yes we need one young guy learning the center spot in the top 2/3 lines.
2. Aho, Staal, and Wallmark are my internal options for center
3. No.
I go something like
Rask needs to be given away. Arizona is a good place. They have cap space and really struggle to keep people there (although WTH was Raanta thinking?)
Lindholm is done, in my eyes. If he had shown his physicality all season, I’d be all for keeping him. He didnt and we need to get tougher.
If we cant give up Kruger then let him ride the pine and help mentor Wallmark, Necas, and Aho as a center.
Zykov-Aho-TT
JVR or Trade- Staal-Williams
Skinner or Trade-JT Miller/Statsny-Necas
McGinn-Wallmark-Foegele
Nordy and Kruger or PDG as the 13th & 14th forwards
If Skins is traded and another LW, like Patches, is brought in then they would slide to line 1 and Zykov to line 3. The new GM needs to make this his team and show early, last year isnt acceptable. Also have the intentestinal fortitude to sit a struggling roster player.
1. Yes. We have Staal (shutdown line) and Rask (4th line) as proven centers. We have Aho and Lindholm who can both play center, but IMO they are both better suited for the wing. If we rely upon them as centers without getting another proven scoring type center and one of them gets injured, we are really out of luck. To me the addition of another proven center who can score bolsters our versatility, bolsters our scoring, and protects us against injury.
2. Given the parameters you set Staal, Rask, Lindholm, and Aho.
3. I sure would TRY Necas there IF HE IS AS FAR ALONG IN HIS DEVELOPMENT AS ALL THE “EXPERTS” are saying. If I was in charge I would go out and get me a proven top six center. If Necas shows he can do the job, what have you lost by having another good proven center who can center a first or second line. If you look at all the other team’s rosters you will see they are top heavy with players who can, if necessary, play center successfully in the NHL.
1) No. You are correct that the add needs to be a strong two-way winger with scoring ability–ideally Max P.
2) The answer to 1 was no because I am fine with Aho, Staal, Lindholm, and Necas. I am sticking with my template (mostly because I can be intellectually stubborn) of having a top-scoring line, a disruption line, an opportunistic scoring line, and a balanced line.
3) I would think they will end up together–especially if BP is coach. But I would not plan on that because I would fully commit to Aho at center.
Matt, you do an excellent job as always in adding multiple levels of understanding for everyone who read this blog. Thanks to what you have written, I see why Necas should be a center and not start at wing. The one area where I think you are missing what is happening is with Aho at center. His ability to “play around rather than through the defense” is a feature not a bug. There are some misconceptions about the Canes. One is that they don’t get to the “dirty areas” enough.
https://hockeyviz.com/team/CAR/1718
This graph clearly shows that the Canes were one of the best teams in the league in getting shots from the bottom of the face-off circles to directly in front of the net. If you compare the charts on Hockeyviz for the two best offensive teams, Tampa and Winnipeg, then you see that they are better than the rest of the league getting shots between the two face-off circles actually a little farther from the net. This is the area that Aho opens up by circling from behind the net to the blueline. A defender, and often two, must follow Aho. To use a basketball analogy, this breaks down the zone defense because it causes players to move opening up space.
Now Aho can do some of this as a winger, but he and the team are much more efficient with him at center and beginning with the puck earlier in setting up the offensive attack. Two goals from Aho’s time at center demonstrate just how good he will be. The first is Zykov’s first goal against Arizona. In this sequence Aho is playing much like you describe–going through the defense. The play happens with Carolina in quick transition. Aho’s stick handling pulls two defenders and opens up space for Zykov in that magic spot just between the circles. The other great example is Hanifin’s goal that makes it 3-1 against Ottawa. This is an example of him playing around the defense. But it too results in a shot from just inside the bottom of the circle.
I am not going to argue that Aho’s style will always make him as effective as Crosby or MacKinnon. But he is by far the best option that Carolina has in the organization. I will also continue to mention that his point totals the first two seasons are nearly identical to the totals for John Tavares his first two seasons–and Tavares was playing center. A final note, you mentioned +/- in regards to Staal and I agree that it is now an undervalued statistic. Aho’s +/- for the last 12 games was +6. So he may look squish, but he is not really a defensive liability at center.
I also like Lindholm at center. I watched a Philadelphia game at the end of the season. The national announcer indicated how Couturier had made a “leap” in his production. In fact, prior to this season Lindholm was the better scorer as Couturier had never breeched 40 points. I don’t think Lindholm as a center will hit 75 next season, but I think 55-60 is likely if he plays center full time with solid wingers. Because Lindholm’s strength of passing from behind the net often results in shots from the bottom of the circles (see there is a theme here, not just my usual random ramblings).
So to try and tie this up, with a little change of mind thanks to tj who has convinced me that Nordstrom and not Ryan is the winger to keep:
Zykov/Aho/Teravainen (Zykov is the real deal, especially since he has a great shot from where Aho will get him the puck)
Foegele/Staal/Nordstrom (the old Nestrasil/Staal/Nordstrom line with Foegele as the “higher end talent.” Nordstrom will actually get 5-7 goals on this line)
*MP or RHN/Necas/McGinn (McGinn looked to have 20-goal potential, he plays faster than he skates, so he might thrive with Necas)
Rask/Lindholm/Williams (gives Lindholm two wingers who have good shots from the middle of the ice–plus Rask is available if Necas struggles)
Finally, I love Wallmark. When I have seen the Checkers it is obvious that he thinks the game at a different level than most young players. Still, I don’t know if he forces Lindholm back to wing. It is a good problem to have if he demonstrates that he must be a center in Raleigh.
*The all-around winger that will help Necas transition based on the two names most mentioned here.
Great insight from Matt and all posters. Three unknowns really impact how the centers will look next season.
Skinner- If he is with the team then he probably won’t be with Aho, Staal, or a rookie center.
Necas- Is he ready to be a player who can be counted on without being overly protected? I agree he should be a center but you can’t know if he’s ready until real games.
Rask- Can he bounce back? I think he can. I don’t think he is indifferent. I think he has been frustrated that Peters wants him to be a third line player who is defense oriented. Ever since he was drafted he has seemed to me to have a bit of “I’m better than you think I am”. If the Canes give up on a 25 year old this quick, I think that could be a mistake.
So the unknowns are there and only the new leadership can choose the path for the team. Yet it is interesting to converse on what is the best way forward.
I like the idea of reuniting Norstrom and Staal and pair them up with a two-way winger like Voegele.
I would want to explore swapping of Rask and Galchenuk (even if we retain some of Rask’s salary). I’d also be interested in sam Reinhard from Buf (or RoR if available), we could trade someone like Hanifin to Buf (if we can backfill his slot with a more experience NHL defenseman who can at least play some top 4 minutes).
J.T. Miller is another interesting option if we can get him and RNH is top of the list.
I think the Canes need to go out and get at least 1 of the 4, not start with the same set of centers, reshuffle and hope that Necas springs a miracle. I just see another playoff less season in the cards (though I want to be wrong, 10th time is a charm).
Eklund from Hockeybuzz swears that MP is heading to florida, the deal is done in all but on paper. His rumours are not exactly reliable, but when he elevates to E4 I’d give it a 60% chance of happening, and it sounds like if MP wants out of Montrea he has a lot of reasons to head down to Miami and few to stop over in North Carolina.
I like your analysis, Matt, and if we weren’t coming out of a 9th straight season of missing the playoffs I would say there is credibility. But I am going to take your one point, though, “change to the core”. I think that change could and, indeed, should be significant. There is an undeniable malaise to the team and simply adding one or two pieces to the mix – even if the coach is changed – isn’t going to change the energy or create a winning culture. That is why I find it hard to make these types of assessments right now – there things I think should happen (and hope will) and things I fear will happen (largely status quo). Ultimately I think we are going to move core pieces but we will also, per force, have to move prospects to move some of those pieces. A 30-40% roster change is not out of the question in my mind.
As always, great write up and better comments! For me, it is really hard to think about these players without knowing who the coach will be. I have always liked/defended BP in most of his decisions (for example, I agreed mostly when he would swap the lines to try and create advantages…). I believe BP as the coach or not could have a major impact on some of the “core” players like Rask and Lindy. IMO, BP has lost them…. or maybe not lost them as much as the “excitement” of someone different may make them push harder… If that happens, maybe Rask see’s the potential to be more offensive minded and that jump starts that part of his game. On the other hand, if their is not that much of a culture change, I don’t see either one of them as making an offensive jump.
So, with that rambled thoughts (sorry), if no change in coach, then I think Rask should be traded. I think he is too close to Jordan to have two of those players. Maybe trade him for Nugent-Hopkins, since they want NH to play more of a defensive role.
For centers I like Aho, Staal, Walmark, Necas (yes, throw him into the fire). Again, like others have said, this would assume almost equal minutes between the lines. Necas, while on the “so called” fourth line, could still be used on the PP. Walmark on the PK.