For last Friday’s Daily Cup of Joe I ventured knee deep into starting to consider the work ahead for the summer and building the 2018-19 lineup. In that article, I presented the recent history leading up to the current situation with the Carolina Hurricanes at the center position.
Where we left off
At a basic level, we left off with a primary group (before late season tinkering) of Jordan Staal, Victor Rask, Derek Ryan and Marcus Kruger that just was not good enough. For the 2018-19 season, the Hurricanes will need more out of the position and will need to find a way to upgrade especially in terms of scoring production.
Slotting the original four from the 2017-18 season
The starting point is figuring if and where the four primary centers from the 2017-18 fit. Ryan is an unrestricted free agent, but Staal, Rask and Kruger are all under contract.
Jordan Staal
Despite being a bit light on scoring for a first or second line center, he still fits in a winning lineup because of how strong he is defensively and because of his ability to anchor a line that can hold its own against the league’s elite scoring lines. Key though, is an opposite/complementary scoring first or second line that makes the math work offensively.
Verdict: Let’s call his the second line center.
Victor Rask
His offense fell off a cliff for most of the season (only 31 points in 71 games) and his play in total was ‘meh’, but he did manage to stay on course defensively for the most part such that he somehow managed to be an even player despite underperforming offensively. Especially if he can refind his offensive game and also chemistry with line mates, Rask could be a capable third line center in 2018-19, but on a team that already has one defense-leaning center in the top 6, I do not see Rask as an option for a top 6 role even if he rebounds.
Verdict: Let’s call him a third line center.
Derek Ryan
As maligned as Ryan was by the fan base during parts of the 2017-18 season, I actually think he performed about as expected. His 38 points represent decent dept scoring especially when considering his modest salary, but the issue is just that he is overslotted. As a free agent, there is a good chance that Ryan will not return, and if he does, I think it will be in a depth role.
Verdict: I would gladly take him back at the right price as a #13-ish depth forward, but would not allocate a top 9 slot to him.
Marcus Kruger
He was the centerpiece of a failed attempt to build a veteran-heavy fourth line that could be relied on heavily in a checking line role. The project missed on multiple fronts. The defensive play was fair not great. Kruger was not the strength on the power play that he was expected to be. And the fourth line in total contributed virtually nothing offensively. Kruger is under contract for one more season with a hefty $3.1 million salary cap hit and $2.3 million actual salary. Those numbers will make him difficult to move, but he will certainly be on the trading block this summer.
Verdict: Kruger could actually fit nicely in a #13-ish slot too, just like Ryan, but his salary is a mismatch for that role.
When I net it out, I have the Hurricanes with Jordan Staal and Victor Rask manning the second and third line center slots and openings for a first line/scoring-leaning center and also a fourth line center.
Options within
The Hurricanes have a number of options within the organization already.
Sebastian Aho
He has already arrived offensively with 65 points for the 2017-18 season with most of those coming as a left wing though. In his audition at the center position late in the season, his game was a mixed bag that leaned positive. He looked immediately comfortable playing in the middle of the rink with the puck on his stick. And with Aho at the center position, Teravainen’s strong offensive play held steady, and the duo also played a role in Valentin Zykov’s strong run at the NHL level. Aho’s game defending especially in transition/the neutral zone are not nearly as advanced as his offensive play, but he did not look to be in over his head either. My question with Aho is whether his shifty style of advancing the puck and above average finishing ability are better spent at the wing ideally with a bigger center who can blaze a path straight through the middle of the rink and distribute the puck from there.
Elias Lindholm
Like Aho, Elias Lindholm looked capable in his end of season audition at the center position. The key word with Lindholm is ‘capable’. Especially on a team that needs more offense out of the position, it is not clear that Lindholm is the right fit for a top 9 center slot. In addition, the team is short at right wing both currently and possibly looking into the future, so unless Lindholm is truly a diffence-maker above other options, he might be better left at right wing.
Lucas Wallmark
Lucas Wallmark had a phenomenal season at the AHL level. As far as showing NHL-readiness at the level below he rates incredibly highly. In addition, he looked capable even if not spectacular in limited NHL ice time. Wallmark will definitely get a long look in training camp next season, but the question is where he fits. He seems unlikely to just jump right into a top 6 role which would leave him battling for a depth center role. Especially if the Hurricanes want to build a fourth line that is capable of more offensively but still with a reasonable amount of defensive acumen, Wallmark could be a good fit.
Martin Necas
Martin Necas is the wild card. More than any other player currently in the Carolina Hurricanes organization right now except maybe Aho, Necas has the potential ceiling of a first line offensive center. He training camp and preseason audition was eye-opening. His skating is top notch, and he uses it to push pace right into the teeth of the defense off the rush just like the best NHL playmakers do. With another year to mature, round out his game and add some strength, he could be ready offensively for the 2018-19 season. The question is whether he can be competent enough defensively to play a regular role without being hidden/sheltered significantly. His skating makes him capable as a first forechecker but his play in read/react situations behind the forecheck were ‘iffy’ at times in preseason play. That is the area of his game that will most be under the microscope next fall, as he tries to win an NHL roster slot.
Options outside the current roster
This summer is not a great one for shopping the free agent market for a higher-end offensive center. Such players are a precious commodity which makes it hard to add them from outside. The best option might be to acquire either a scoring center or help for an internal center option via trade.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
He is not a pure scoring first line center, but he is maybe the closest thing of players who are likely to be available. Since the arrival of Connor McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins’ usage, role and line mates have been more than of a Jordan Staal type of role. But I think the positive spin on that is that the offensive part of his game is still there, but he is even more well-rounded than he was 3-4 years ago as a young scorer. He would definitely make the Hurricanes deeper at the center position and the forward position in total. With the Oilers’ playoff miss and salary cap challenges, Nugent-Hopkins figures to be available.
Max Pacioretty
I wrote about Max Pacioretty quite a bit leading up to the trade deadline. Like Nugent-Hopkins, he is another good player who is allegedly available. Pacioretty is a proven top 6 scorer and left wing. As such, he could be a great complementary player to build a scoring line around one of the internal center options.
In browsing the list of available players, the trade market seems more likely to yield the right kind of player than free agency.
What say you Canes fans?
As always I have some thoughts on possible solutions and also decision points for the various options, but will save them for another day so as not to stymie what should be a great Monday debate in The Coffee Shop.
1) Do you lean toward using an internal option or adding from outside the organization to fill a top center slot?
2) Which internal option(s) do you like best and what would be your preseason decision points for deciding on the last one or two centers?
3) Which, if any, of Derek Ryan and Marcus Kruger do you see filling a role on the 2018-19 roster, and what is it?
Go Canes!
1) I am convinced that Aho is the 1C. While he hasn’t played center predominantly, Aho’s numbers his first two years are amazingly similar to John Tavares’–the goals are identical for years one and two. I know others will say they are differences in size and style (with some justification), but the bottom line for a top-scoring center is to drive scoring.
2) Great timing on this post–what with LVK and CBJ both leading their series. The future is four mostly equal lines. Vegas by default and Columbus mostly by design have exactly this. With the young talent already on the team and the prospects available, the Canes have an opportunity to do something like:
Top scoring line: Zykov/Aho/Teravainen
Disruption line: Foegele/Staal/McGinn
Opportunistic scoring line: (Skinner’s replacement)/Necas/Ryan
Balanced line: Rask/Lindholm/Williams
With three call ups and one trade (the more I think about it the more it seems Skinner will be the core player moved)–preferably for one of the two players listed above–the team is much different. From my perspective, it is different in a good way. Nordstrom and Di Guiseppe can battle for 13th forward. I like Ryan as RW with Necas because of his ability to take key face-offs and solid (I am not saying spectacular) play, which would be complement Necas’ ability to speed up the game, especially with a scoring LW like Pacioretty or RNH. Though as the prospects develop, I could see McGinn moving to the opportunistic scoring line and Roy joining Staal and Foegele to create an even more disruptive line.
3) Already mentioned Ryan. I don’t see a role for Kruger.
* As a footnote, I came to thinking about the lines in this way not to understand how the center position works for 18-19, but how the various prospects in the pipeline might become successful. While prospects are often talked about as having “middle 6” potential or “fourth line” potential, I found it much easier to realize that Roy’s strength is to use his size to be disruptive both in the defensive zone and in front of the net. While I have not seen more than highlights, this framework made it easier to think about Geekie as having opportunistic scoring line potential or Mattheos/Luostarinen as having balanced line potential. I will expand on this further when I am not late for work.
Count us out of playoffs if those are our lines. I’d call the new GM and absolute failure unless Skinner’s replacement isnt a 1st line forward. Ryan and Kruger don’t belong on the roster
1. I’d lean towards using an external center option on a 1 to 2-year contract. Aho needs more games played at center, probably in a third line capacity to begin with while he figures it out. Necas is a promising but totally unknown quantity on the NHL rink, and expecting him to land straight into a #1 center slot is definitely a bit crazy. He might turn heads and do it, but I lean towards not putting him in over his head.
For external options, you didn’t ention Tavares, granted he is probably a less than 5% chance, but he has not resigned with the Islanders, he reportedly does not want to play for the Rangers, maybe he wants a change of scenery and to move further south.
2. I think Rask and staal are not the right half of the centers this team needs. It needs one of them, Staal preferably, but having two defense leaning centers with very limited scoring upside is not ideal.
I think if Rask could be shopped for another forward with similar contract, maybe one that has under performed but has more scoring upside, it should be considered. Rask could be a great center on a more offense oriented team.
staal would only be shopped if he wants to go and if the returns are really good, something like RNH and first round from the Oilers, for instance (though they primarily need someone on the wing).
IF we keep both, Rask would be a good 4th line center with Walmark or Necas filling in the third line. For first line, give Necas and Aho a shot if help cannot be found outside the organization.
3. Ryan was a soldier, he’s a great story and I like his interviews. He also had a reasonable point total, we can’t blame him if our expectations were unrealistic. I think he’d be a good #13 forward slot or a winger to play with a less experienced center on the third or 4th line, because he can take faceoffs.
Nordstrom is another 12 to 13 forward, Kruger is just not part of the equation based on his play last year.
First time post. Enjoyed the site for over a year. Two things that make sense to me. Slot players correctly and right now Carolina does not have players for traditional four lines. If I get a call from Dundon for GM,here is what I would attempt.
Aho 1st line player TT
Zykov Rask Lindholm
Foegele Staal Williams
McGinn Wallmark Veteran RW
I would trade Skinner and either Faulk or Hanifin for that 1st line player. Watching the playoffs size and speed are needed across 4 lines. A center from Florida or Buffalo or a winger from Montreal could make the Aho line very good. Let Necas get at least a part of a season in AHL.
Coaching change and health could make a difference for Rask. If not Necas takes that slot when ready.
Aho line – score
Staal line- smash
Rask line- get to front of net
McGinn line- Rabid porcupine
Just some thoughts from a fellow long suffering fan.
Welcome JM97! Agree we need to slot appropriately. Over-slotting has been this team’s own nemesis.
Welcome JM97. I hope you pull up a chair and become a regular. Another angle on our beloved hockey team is always welcome and appreciated!
Thanks. Been a canes fan since 09 when I was stationed at Bragg. NC native and had no understanding of the game. This organization can be frustrating but a blast when they win.
JM97, of all of the suggestions taking into account your suggestion we trade Skinner (which I disagree with) I like your lines the best. I like the matchups of players and I like their positioning. On the positioning in particular I like Aho on a wing and not center. He is an elite scorer playing on the wing and when he went to center this year his scoring dropped off with no appreciable pickup in scoring by his line mates. I also like your placement of Lindholm on a wing and not center. I would swap Foegele and Lindholm in their line assignments. Regardless, your suggested lineup given your parameters makes good sense to me.
I will save my suggestions for later as nothing I could contribute now would be better than anything you and others have suggested.
Aho and/or Necas will likely be our future 1C. That said, it’s still too early to place that on Aho’s back for next season…and would certainly be ‘cart before the horse’ regarding Necas. Besides, we’ve entered enough seasons hoping Staal and Rask would be that player…let’s not act on hope in 2018-19.
I’ve been recommending for some time to bring in a 2C that can serve as a 1C for us short-term. Someone who can carry the top center load respectively on both sides of the rink and be serviceable enough point-wise (not high-end scoring, rather 60-70 point caliber). This player would carry the load for 1-2 years until Aho and/or Necas ease into more of the role. It would also slot our other centers more appropriately. RNH is growing on me more for this role, as well as a Brassard type. Guys like this are playing 3C on their teams and would fit our core.
The situation might be beyond repair. Most Canes fans think RNH or Tavares would help the playoff push. The former has McDavid and Draisaitl as fellow forwards. Tavares has Bailey and Barzal. Yet neither has his team in the playoffs. Similarly acquiring Radulov didn’t do it for Dallas. Trading a young D ( sound familiar) for Drouin wasn’t the answer. Even Taylor Hall needed several seasons and a fellow 1OA to get to the playoffs. The new GM has a mountain to climb and if we are honest no guaranteed map.
As far as Necas, I think others are too cautious. A year in an overseas professional league worked for Aho. I for one would take 24/49 from Necas next year over most the trade or UFA options.
All this thinking about the lack of success by other teams and players brings me back to the LVK and Columbus blueprint. Thinking differently about how the existing talent is used. Zykov, Foegele, Wallmark, Necas have excelled at their levels. And they are doing something Tavares and RNH aren’t right now—playoffs.
I am not arguing for doing nothing but call ups. My preference would be to move Skinner. It might have to be Lindholm or Rask. Even all three. But ultimately Carolina will need a system that wins without a Crosby/Malkin or Stamkos\Kucherov model. I believe Aho and Necas will be one level below that for many years—still the system will have to feature the other talents within the organization.
I’ve been an advocate from Sam Reinhart from Buffalo for some time now.
The first half of his season was pretty miserable (5 goals in 30 some games), but then he picked up his game and scored 18 goals in just over 25 games, maybe just playing for contract.
If Buf wants to retool this player might be available for a relatively modest sum, and the chance for him to play on a line with Aho and TT as a first-line center (moving up from behind RoR and JI) might interest him.
This would be a cheaper version of RNH and a much bigger bet, but one with at least some upside I think, especially if we can cancel it out with Rask’s contract somehow.
The Checkers tore it up towards the end of the season. If they can carry that momentum and go deep into the playoffs we may have a lot of players coming into training camp with a winner attitude an a lot to prove next year.
We’re seeing Vegas and Boston as the teams we want to be.
I like ct’s definition of lines rather than 1-4, and I agree with trading Skinner (but that trade will come with a price – more on my thoughts there another time). But if we are going 1-4 and we can’t/don’t trade Rask, he showed himself to be an excellent 4th line center with defensive soundness, strength at the dot, and the ability to make his line maters better offensively (think Nordstrom’s last season assists).
With a lot of depth forwards already on the roster, I would rather not retain Ryan for that role – he has shown he can be successful at this level and he will find employ elsewhere; freeing up roster space and a forward slot. Move PDG to the 13th F – he is competitive and will push everyone else. Aho, Necas, Staal, and Rask(?) look to line up down the center.
And I think ct does a great job cutting down the concept of a big=name forward from elsewhere, and I concur with breezy about Charlotte coming in with a winner culture and an attitude. Let’s bring up Vellucci too! 🙂
Hi everyone,
Enjoy everyone’s comments & strategies to make the Canes better. Some are right on. I’ll add my 2 cents & hope TD reads this board & implements at least some of what all of us GM’s are saying. 🙂
With TD’s higher budget (hopefully), I think we have plenty of options.
1) If we could somehow find a way to land Tavares (not likely), it would go a long way in our next step. We would then have our #1C and plenty of options to experiment with in good ways. Aho & Necas could take time developing into quality centers. Think of having center options of Tavares, Staal, Aho, Necas & Lindholm. Loaded with talent down the middle for years to come.
2) More likely scenario, we sign a second tier center to play 1C while Aho & Necas develop. Think of RNH, ROR, Statsny, etc. for a 2 year deal. Another good option with plenty of configurations. Of course most of us probably want Tavares but I could be happy with one of these guys also.
3) Could happen that we don’t get any of these guys. In that scenario, we would still probably end of with a talented power forward such as JVR, Patches, Kane etc. This obviously dictates that Aho and/or Necas step up in developing at center faster.I have total faith Aho is capable of such a task. Necas is crazy talented but still has a lot to learn.
As far as trades, a couple of players I think should be traded for a change of scenery are Rask, Faulk, and huge maybe Skinner.
Rask just does not look motivated & frankly never really has. He is not terrible but just not as good as we need for the price we are paying. Faulk is a tough one. He did not play as if he really cared night in & out. If you are a captain you have to lead by example & he did not this year. or sure if he is over the Canes or tired of losing, doesn’t like the coach or all of the above but it shows.
Skinner is another deal all together. He seems motivated most games & you can tell he cares but his style of play can either win you games or screw everything up. Not sure what to do on this one but maybe a new coach could use him to the team’s advantage.
Which brings me to the coach. I like BP but I think his time is done here. He has had 4 years & still the same thing every year and still no playoffs. I realize he has to work with the players given but unfortunately I think he has lost the room because of the same results year in & out. Maybe not his fault but the organization needs a change & that has already occurred with the GM but usually the coach is not far behind. (don’t worry BP will have a job shortly after he walks or is fired). Dallas’ GM worked with him in Detroit & has already been asking as I also heard NYR & Calgary have been also.
In the end I hope TD gets it right no matter what they decide & the Canes can get back to their winning days & playoff atmosphere.
Here’s to tailgating into June again !!
I can’t forget TD stating that we are going to be tougher to play against next year. To me that partly means getting bigger and stronger. Don’t underestimate Nicolas Roy as a 4C – he’s big and strong at 6’4″ and 210 lbs. He plays a power game and likes to go the front of the net. 2 years ago he won the Guy Carbonneau Trophy (Best Defensive Forward) in the QMJHL. He could be the real deal and the heir apparent to Jordan Staal. Two more years at $720,000 sounds very good. By comparison Wallmark is only 175 lbs.
Rask is a solid 3C but doesn’t fit on our team if we get a legitimate 1C; his $4M per year is too much to pay for a 4C. Ideally Aho slots as a 3C for now with his line getting more favorable matchups. We’ll need to go outside the organization to get a 1C, and I agree RNH may be available and our most likely candidate. Wallmark and Rask could be trade bait.
Skinner has a No Movement Clause in his contract which gives him lots of leverage as to where he may or may not go. He’s entering a contract year so he should be highly motivated next season. In the two years prior to this season he averaged 33 goals and Minus 2. He should slot on the top line but it’s imperative we obtain a talented 1C that matches up with him.
Ryan and Kruger don’t fit the “tougher to play against” mold. Let’s give Necas a start in the AHL and time to adjust to the North American game. Better to bring him up from Charlotte if he excels than to demote him from the NHL if he struggles.