This borrows a bit from other articles, but it is mid-August and that time of year when new news is sparse and untouched topics few.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers 5 things that could most significantly tilt the 2018-19 Hurricanes to positive.
1) The emergence of a goalie
At least equal time if not more is spent considering forward lines, defense pairings, rookie skaters who could make a difference, sources for more scoring, etc. But at the end of the day, I think it will be incredibly difficult for the 2018-19 Hurricanes to push up into the playoffs if they do not receive at least league average goaltending over the course of the season from at least one of Scott Darling and Petr Mrazek. The position continues to be a yearly detractor, and I do not think the 2018-19 Hurricanes will be good enough to overcome more of the same.
2) An across the board boost from a steadier blue line
Related to #1, with the addition of Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan, might the revamped blue line finally emerge as a steadying force and every-game strength? Such a development, could actually play a significant role in boosting the goaltending, but I think equally significantly, the blue line could aid the search for more scoring. Can the group tilt the ice into the offensive zone and be an offensive catalyst such that the team gains offense not so much from a couple players but rather everyone chipping in a bit more? That would be the Holy Grail for scoring.
3) A rapid rise from both Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas
Especially with the departure of Jeff Skinner, the Hurricanes forward group is really light on players that I would consider to be offensive difference-makers. There are others with potential, but really only Sebastian Aho and potentially Teuvo Teravainen really qualify entering the season. Svechnikov for sure and possible Necas have a ceiling easily in the range. But as an 18-year old and 19-year old respectively who enter the 2018-19 season with virtually no NHL experience, it is uncertain how close to his ceiling each will get and more significantly how soon. A rapid rise by one or both of these players in 2018-19 would significantly boost scoring.
4) Rod Brind’Amour’s effect
Rod Brind’Amour as head coach is a complete wild card. On the one hand, he has zero head coaching experience past whatever he logged coaching his children. On the other hand, he could have just the mentality and mindset that breathes fresh air into a group that was not where it needed to be in terms of attitude, confidence, etc. in 2017-18. Could Brind’Amour be just what the doctor ordered in terms of helping players find a higher gear?
5) The Justin Williams effect
In a similar vein to my comments on Brind’Amour, especially if he is named the captain, could Justin Williams also play a huge role in jolting the system and seeing the team emerge in 2018-19 with a different mindset. To outsiders, it might seem odd to include two intangible type items in a short list of five, but for those who tracked the team closely in February and March last season, the fragile nature of the team was unmistakable. Could Williams jolt the system and help that change for the 2018-19 season?
What say you Canes fans?
1) If you had to select only one of these items for the biggest potential impact in 2018-19, which would you choose?
2) Do you have any other items that could similarly have a significant impact on the Hurricanes 2018-19 season?
Go Canes!
1. The goaltending must step up to at the very minimum to the league average. This means both goaltenders have to have a season much better than their last season and not much worse than their best season in the league.
2. The fourth line must contribute depth scoring at the level of a typical third line and still maintain a level of physicality and defense. Also, the penalty kill must get better and we must replace the faceoff abilities we lost with Ryan and Lindholm leaving.
To put everything in a summary, this team has to up it’s all-around game offensively, defensively, special teams, physicality, and professionally (meaning having the confidence AND desire to play 60 minutes every game). That seems to be an overwhelming expectation or need, but it really isn’t if the team employs speed, tenacity, confidence, and the desire to do what is necessary to win (play 60 minutes of hard fast hockey) as there is enough innate talent and ability on this team to win otherwise.
1) The blue line contributions are really important. All of the final eight teams had significantly more scoring from their top 3 d-men than the Hurricanes. While it is essential that defensemen help contain the opposition, the teams that play in May all have blue lines that can change the score. Faulk’s down year offensively may have contributed more to the poor season than his defensive struggles. Hamilton has been consistently productive, Faulk (presuming no trade) should rebound, so if one of Pesce or Slavin can become a regular contributor on the blue line, then the team will be more successful.
2) I would include Zykov in your 3rd point. Several players have translated AHL scoring to the NHL level. To this point that has mostly been players who organizations thought were too small for the rigors of the NHL (Marchessault, Arvidsson, Gourde). However as a poster on HFBoards has pointed out, Zykov not only scored points in his 10 games in the NHL, but his underlying numbers playing with Aho and Teravainen were comparable to elite LWs. If Zykov can be this season’s Gourde and put up 55-60 points, the Canes will not miss Skinner’s scoring.
I mean, it’s clearly goaltending 1st. But it’s pretty sobering how many “ifs” there are with this team:
IF Goaltending
IF Rookies
IF Special teams
IF Coaching
The only area I’m not concerned about is the blueline, especially if Faulk stays. The additions of Hamiltion and DeHaan make for a loaded D corps and there are probably 2 capable replacements in Charlotte.
I think one other question is whether Aho is ready to play a full season at center – or if RBA even wants him at C. If not, who is our scoring threat down the middle? That’s a lot to ask of Necas and he seems like a playmaker than goal scorer. Rask has been in decline, and coming off injury. Staal is incredible, but goal scoring is not his strength.
To me any one of the goalie, defense, or offense has to show their potential very early on and the remaining two factions will pick their game up.
If the defense dominates, the goaltenders can relax by playing their game and dont have to worry about being perfect because the defense will clean up the mess. A less tense / less thinking goalie is a better goalie. The offense will feel more confident in pitching and taking chances in the offensive zone.
so on and so forth. The team needs to gain confidence and have one group step up to bring the rest of the team up.
Stronger goaltending is #1.
In my opinion Canes management has made a strategic decision to focus on a solid defensive core (we have the highest team Cap $ allocated to Defense even though we are dead last in total Cap $; conversely we have the lowest Cap $ allocated to our Forward group). This strategy is quite different than most other teams that focus their $ on the Forward group. This strategy begs the question whether we will score enough to be successful. So my #2 concern is if the young forward group as a whole will rise to the occasion to put the puck in the net.
I believe the $ discrepancy between the forwards and defense is more of a product of where our “stars” are in terms of being in the league. Most are still on their entry level contract. I believe that discrepancy will definitely even out in the next few years….
Saying that, it does mean our forwards are young!
I am going to run through your five points and offer my answers to your questions as part of the process.
1. I am not sure what “average goaltending” is, unless it simply refers to the macro statistics (GAA, S%) which don’t really tell the story.
Darling had an inconsistent season – he would shine in a game and then offer subsequent flops. He would make a series of amazing saves in a game then let in a soft one.
We don’t need Darling to be “average” – we need him to be consistent at his higher level of play (i.e., as in Chicago). And there is probably nobody on the team who has worked as hard in offseason to make a difference in his game – except maybe Necas, who went through a similar conditioning program this summer – in the league. Plus he is much more confident and comfortable – and the team has repaid that by making him a public face this offseason with various appearances.
And like Darling, Mrazek is in a fulcrum year – he has to show that his early stardom was not a fluke.
I am really not worried about goaltending this year.
2. It is not the blueline but better play in the defensive zone by all parties – forwards and d-men. There were too many breakdowns – both defending the rush, which does fall on the d-men, but more importantly when forechecking and clearing the puck.
I read an article over the weekend that indicated that the Canes were the 4th best forechecking team in the league last season, according to fancy stats. That is the result of Peters’ system, I am sure. If that is legitimate then what appears to be the case is that while the majority of the time our forechecking was outstanding when we played the system the team also “whoopsied” (a technical hockey term, I am told) and there was little margin for error in Peters system or the team’s implementation when that happened.
So changing the clearing/forechecking will make a difference – but clearly there is a give-and-take involved.
3. I worry not about Necas or Svech. And I think we have the complementary players (McGinn, Ferland, Z, Martinook even) that can make the scoring lines of Aho/Turbo and Necas/Svech extremely potent.
4. I remain most concerned about RBA and his ability to coach – I remain from Missouri on this one. I think a “RBA jolt” would have been far more likely if O/M replaced Peters with RBA last season – the immediate change in coaching (style, content, energy) could have provided a real lift to the team (although at the cost of Svechnikov – maybe retaining Peters was some form of semi- or unconscious tanking???).
5. Providing the “jolt” was JW’s role last season as well – how did that work out? He may not have had a close relationship with BP as he does with RBA but that would not have affected the dynamics in the locker room or on ice. Does he really need the “C” to have the authority to be a change in the locker room? – that doesn’t speak well about the situation if that is the case.
For me the big sign…wait for it…the change in team culture wrought by both a 45% turnover in team personnel, the competitive nature of a number of new veteran faces (Hamilton, Ferland, CdH), and the hunger and energy of the young players.
tj. Excellent points about Darling, team defense, and the rookies. I share your doubts about RBA. Hope those will quickly prove to be unfounded.
The one thing I don’t see is “competitive nature” of new players. NYI and Flames were both teams that fade as much as Canes. There is an argument that de Haan being injured hurt the Islanders chances. That argument isn’t there for Hamilton and Ferland. I admit Hamilton will be one of Carolina’s best players. I believe it will help because talent precedes a winning attitude. As far as Ferland, I am less sure. He plays hard and physical, which is needed. However he only scored one goal the last 27 games—when it mattered most. I don’t think he was any less competitive, just other teams paid him more attention and his shot % balanced out.
The skills of Svechnikov, Necas, Zykov, and yes Hamilton will make much more difference than their nature. Look at the recent list of top players. The good teams have multiples. That would not necessarily be true for a most competitive list.
This is where I disagree with you, ct. I think we did have talent but losing became acceptable – particularly big losses. I like the way Ferland skates – north-south, making big hits. His scoring may have dried up at the end but I don’t think it is for lack of a personal competitive nature. I also think the same for Hamilton. Certainly it can be argued that Hamilton and CdH are more competitive than Faulk and Hanifin. Same thing with Martinook.
In fact, all 4 have come from teams that have been losers – all 4 want to win. Add in Mrazek and these new players bring in great desire to become winners and I think will drive the culture change along with those Canes player remaining who had always bought in.
tj. Last preseason I for one was excited because Carolina was committed to the “winning is contagious” belief. Williams, Kruger, TVR all had multiple rings. Even Darling was a winner in the NHL. The team acquired a winner for its most important role- starting goaltender. It acquired a winner to be the outspoken guy in the room. It acquired winners for the fourth line who were real pains to play against and most fans thought we had the best fourth line in hockey until around Thanksgiving. 30% of the roster turned over and they were bringing a winning attitude. I am not going to buy tired of losing-fool me once and all that.
I will always believe different strategy and/or coaching can get more out of talent—or as I have said in the past bad management/coaching can cause people to underperform. So BP moving on is important. Which makes me think that
Comments cut short.
I think the Canes should do better than last season. I just don’t think it will be because Hamilton and Ferland hate losing more than Williams, Kruger, and Fleury wanted to win.
I am optimistic because Svechnikov, Necas, Zykov, and Foegele have more offensive talent than Ryan, Kruger, and Nordstrom. The D will be better. If one goalie steps up the Canes will be winning.
1. GK
2. GK#2
3. GK#3
4. tie- Much better CENTER PLAY 1-4th lines, and ITEMS 1-3 above
5. A REAL GM…not a board of directors (GM wanabees)
#1 is goaltending. It makes us or breaks us. I do believe that our D is better and may cut down on the quality chances other teams have (fewer breakdowns).
I would put improved play with the special teams as my additional choice for could have a significant impact.
There is room for optimism this season. Better D, who will probably score more. Darling is working hard and a bunch of young forwards with grit and talent who could surprise with scoring. There are a lot if IFs. It hard to say if it will click.
Oh, and
2. GK#2
3. GK#3