Through three games of the six-game road trip, the luckiest Canes fans are the non-night owls who do not stay up for the 10 and 10:30pm starts. Those who have taken to late-night coffee to make it through 1am-ish finishes have yet to really be rewarded for their dedication.
For the second consecutive game, the Hurricanes did pick up an overtime loss point, but right now it just does not feel like half of a win.
As for the game itself, not unlike many games the Hurricanes started okay. That said, I actually thought that the first 13-14 minutes of the first period were what I have come to call “the bad version of good” that features the Hurricanes winning in terms of puck possession, shots and everything else that they seem to win every game but really not converting it to enough good scoring chances. More importantly, I did not think the good guys had much for real scoring chances with people near the crease for rebounds, screens, deflections and all of the other non-glamorous stuff that greatly increases the chance of scoring. But the Hurricanes did break through in that regard in the last five or six minutes of the period with grade A chances from Sebastian Aho who was robbed, a Justin Williams whiff from point blank range and another good scoring chance by Brock McGinn.
When the dust settled on the first period, the Canes had nothing to show for being the better team and faced the dreaded second period with no margin for error. True to form, the Hurricanes lost the second period by a 2-0 margin. The period was actually not horrible in total, but it is disconcerting that the team continues to be far too content to continue playing “try to beat the goalie” on nights when it is tough sledding instead of dialing up the “get ugly around the crease.” After two periods the Kings’ lead was only 2-0, but it felt more like an insurmountable five-goal lead entering the third period.
When a power play at the midway point of the third period went by the wayside, the Canes seemed destined to ride quietly off into the night. But another power play opportunity and a rare mistake by Jonathan Quick made it a game late when Victor Rask beat him with the man advantage to make it 2-1. And then a rare trip to the front of the net by Elias Lindholm netted a second goal. On an extended 6-on-5 with delayed penalty coming, Lindholm made a first save tough for Quick who could not control the rebound, and then Lindholm deposited it behind him to tie the game at 2-2.
The third period was the exact opposite of Thursday. Whereas Thursday saw the Hurricanes convert a sure win into a trip to overtime, Saturday saw the Hurricanes convert a sure loss to a trip to overtime. Also true to form, the extra point was awarded to the opponent in overtime. After the Hurricanes controlled the puck for most of the front part of overtime but never really converted it into a good scoring chance, the Kings scored when Darling lunged awkwardly at a shot off the rush and spit the rebound right back at the original shooter who finished to win the game 3-2.
Notes from the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Kings
1) The “We were robbed!” cry
Like many loyal Caniacs right now, I could write a decent list of current frustrations in a matter of minutes. But one of my growing frustrations or pet peeves that is not a knee-jerk reaction to this week’s play is how sick I am about hearing the story of how the Hurricanes deserved better.
There are two versions of this story that I think are equally wrong more often than not.
The first is the “hot goalie” version. Especially in 2017-18, the Hurricanes have faced more than their fair share of backup goalies which has helped at times. And as far as facing hot goalies goes, I think the current version of the Canes is destined by style of play to face far more of those than the average. The team just does not have enough players who by habit go to the front of the net and make the opposing goalie’s life difficult. Until Lindholm’s goal in the third period, the Hurricanes seemed mostly content to keep playing what I have termed “try to beat the goalie.” Until the Hurricanes make a concerted effort to score more ugly goals, they play a style of hockey that allows a good goalie who is tracking the puck well to have a good night without much for challenges.
The second is the “look at the shot totals” version. Two things factor in here. The first is the lack of chances that are the hard kind for the opposing goalie. The second is that shot totals and even the expected goals type models do not do a great job of adding premium points for the kind of uncontested chances that the Hurricanes give up too often. A wrist shot from 15 feet in alone against the goalie is nothing close to equal to a contested wrist shot by a defended player whose stick if half tied up as he tries to release the shot.
Shorter version is that as I watch the Hurricanes seemingly get cheated based on a couple statistical measures, I am increasingly convinced that this is simply a matter of those statistics not accurately accounting for everything. To be clear, this is not a criticism of advanced stats. The fact that they are imperfect does not mean that they are not useful in evaluating games. It just means that they are a work in process and are only part of the puzzle, not the final answer.
2) A better game
Though the result was the same, Thursday’s and Saturday’s games were night and day in terms of soundness of play. Whereas Thursday was an utter train wreck in terms of break downs, Saturday was a reasonably sound even if not great game.
3) Still seeking goaltending help
Darling tossed another ‘meh’ start on the growing pile. He was not abysmal, but as has been the case almost every game lately, the goalie at the other end of the rink was better again. The overtime game-winner saw him make an awkward-looking save on a shot that is fairly easy to just deflect to the far side boards most times. Instead, Darling leaned awkwardly and somehow spit it right back to the original shooter who quickly put it behind him to end the game.
4) Credit where it is due – Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask and the power play
Giving credit where it is due, the goal by Victor Rask was a huge one that made it a game late, and Elias Lindholm’s tally that followed was just as big.
Also giving credit where it is due…I jumped all over the atrocious special teams play that saw the Hurricanes give up two goals each on the penalty kill and also the power play in Thursday’s 5-4 loss. On Saturday, the penalty kill was successful in its only opportunity, and Rask’s power play changed the course of the game. In addition, the Lindholm goal with an extra attacker on was a pseudo power play at 6-on-5.
5) Missed opportunities in overtime
If my quick late night count is correct, the Hurricanes are now 3-7 in overtime and shootouts. Average is obviously 5-5, so the Hurricanes are minus two points to break even, and it would be huge if by chance the team was a good overtime at 7-3 for a four-point swing.
At a basic level, I think the team’s puck possession approach to overtime is on the right track. The issue is lack of finishing/conversion not too much unlike the team’s offense in total.
6) A win away
Per reader polls from before the road trip started, many wanted more, but I am on record as being content with break even on slightly better for eight out of nine on the road largely against good competition. With Saturday’s overtime loss, the Hurricanes are only a win away from being break even on the trip despite being win-less in three games.
Next up for the Hurricanes is a fourth try to collect a win on the west coast courtesy of a trip to Anaheim to face the Ducks on Monday night to be followed Tuesday by the team’s first trip to Las Vegas.
With an 0-1-2 start to the road trip and back-to-back 10pm starts on week nights, attendance for both games (to be validated on Twitter in the last five minutes of each game) will become an official badge of courage for Hurricanes fans. 🙂
Go Canes!
How many excellent saves does Darling have to make before he rises above “meh”. Seriously, he was hung out to dry a lot – a lot of transitions, some defensive miscues. Although not perfect (the OT goal), Darling kept the team in the game. If only the team could score. But Quick is not going to let in more than 2.
Hey TJ…Though we disagree on this one, I greatly appreciate you offering your equally valid viewpoint on Darling’s play.
One of my absolute favorite things about Canes and Coffee is the volume and diversity of thoughts and opinions from equally smart Canes hockey fans.
Matt – I know when you and I disagree (which happens, although I have learned a lot from you), we do so honestly and with respect. That’s cool.
I agree Raleightj if T.T takes his man after the shot instead of standing flat footed and letting his man go right around him it’s an easy cover on the rebound. Darling is not the blame for everything.
This is another game where if we haven’t been so poor on accumulating points I would have been pleased with the comeback, even with the OTL.
Only one question…. Why is Justin Faulk still the captain of this team. Good game from Aho, Mcginn, TT, and Lindholm.
As regulars know–I am a morning person. However, I stayed up for the entire game. And I think this is a very rare occasion where Matt is being way too pessimistic.
I stayed up because I saw something from the time they took the ice in the Canes that I haven’t really seen this season. They looked determined. As I saw it, Darling wasn’t the better goalie because Quick was the best in the world. He kept the Canes from at least 3 goals they “deserved.” Despite Quick’s play, Carolina did not pack it in after falling behind by 2 in the middle of the second period. They continued to play determined hockey. So I stayed up for the third period. Even after the power play didn’t generate a scoring chance mid-way through the third, I stayed up–because the team looked determined. And that determination paid off when on the next power play TT was able to keep the puck in the offensive zone and then make a perfect feed to Rask. In fact, I don’t think it was Quick’s mistake, rather it was strong play from Carolina. Then McGinn drew a penalty because of determination to get in front of the net and get the puck. All that was topped off by the best 40 seconds of hockey this year. So, yes, it wasn’t a win. But is was everything the team has been accused of not doing so far this season. And it was a comeback against the hottest team in the league and the best-performing goalie at this moment. This game more than Florida, is the blueprint to move the season forward and into playoff contention. The Canes played 60 minutes. The Canes found a way to get the puck into the net against GREAT goaltending.
Also, I was telling my wife that Darling has often looked like a youngster going to his first day of school. Last night there was shot of him where you could see intensity behind the mask. He was totally focused. I agree that OT goal was disappointing. But I stayed up because I sensed that Darling found the compete level he had in Chicago.
Maybe I am being overly optimistic because I went to bed 3 hours later than usual. I don’t think so. If last night’s team shows up for 54 more games, then the season can be successful.
They lost. Again. On a night they outshot their opponent 34-21. Results based business.
Team can’t even lose right. They’re not going to the playoffs. This season needs to be about getting more young players (Zykov, Wallmark, maybe Foegele, Saarela) acclimated, riding Scott Darling until he finds some semblance of his game, and not picking tenth in the draft. Most importantly, not picking tenth in the draft. This team needs to stop getting participation troph – err, I mean overtime loss points, and therefore make a diligent effort to not pick tenth in the draft. If the Hurricanes pick tenth in the draft, there will be yet another marginal player coming to NC while whoever gets picked 11th will be a star in Montreal or New York or wherever. This team a year older, plus Nic Roy, Necas, and Andrei Svechnikov next year? THAT I will pay to go see. THAT will be a dangerous hockey team. THAT team might be able to post a shooting percentage over 2%. But this team finishing with 91 points and picking in that godforsaken 10-12 spot… Put me out of my misery. Just kill me now. Please.
I admit I didn’t stay up for the game, but it actually sounds like a game (at least a third period) that would have been fun to watch.
As someone else already said, if the Canes hadn’t already dug themselves such a hole in the standings we could have taken this game as a point we didn’t expect.
The next two games are critical. If the Canes can muster 3 out of 4 points it is acceptable, if the team earns 2 points or less, then it is time to tank, give the kids a chance, and plan for 2018//2019.
And the team hreally has to tank this time. I’ve said it before, and I think pretty much everyone agrees, we either need money or drafting to acquire the talent we need. Maybe money is coming with the new owners, but one top 3 draft would help too (whereas an 8th or 10th draft would be a lot less effective).
I think if we “give the kids a chance” – we won’t be tanking, but moving our way back up the standings. Just a thought.
Matt, I think your analysis is spot on as almost always. The frustrating part about playing the “try to beat the goalie” style instead of “getting ugly around the crease” is that this has been a common theme for a very long time. IMO, this falls on management/coaching for not having a more balanced team and grittier type players. It seems to be common knowledge that we have a surplus of good perimeter players but not enough net-front guys. Why do you think this hasn’t been addressed? Also, do you know the status of Stempniak and a possible return?
Stempniak is not even skating with the team right now. He is, at a minimum, weeks away from returning.
Can’t pin this on Darling one bit. We are amongst league leader in possession. Amongst basement in capitalizing. That explains the place we are in and the amount of OTL’s.
We needed another sniper to take the pressure off our young guys like Aho, TT, etc. First off, nobody is saying we needed to trade Hanifin or our young talent. We could have gotten what we needed without giving up that, we just didn’t get that player for whatever reason. Perhaps management believed in too much of the analytics to make a move, and now that is looking worse every day that passes. Anyone who has played hockey before knows this is a game of emotion and chemistry more than any analytics can prove. Players know that, too. Great, we own possession stats but it also takes 50+ shots to score. How is that a recipe for success? All you need to do is look at Vegas and Jersey…
Also, everyone gets hung up on Duchene as if he was the only player available…but there were (and are) other players out there that wouldn’t have cost much in return. Besides, we need to trade our surplus (puck possession guy) for a sniper (even if not the ideal defensively). We needed one forward and defenseman to bridge the gap between our current roster and future (two players who make his line mates better). Hence we remain a close, just not a quite there team.
Just curious the players you are talking about that we could have gotten?
Quit complaining about a “late” game. Do you realise that us European Canes fans watch games (live) that start at 2am? And that is all the time. These rare west coast games that start at 5am are actually much better for us.