Coming out of a strong effort against the New York Rangers, I was optimistic that that game could serve as a foundation for a next step up for the 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes. For that to happen would require the Hurricanes to do two things. First would be to double down on the intensity, effort and determination from Tuesday. Second would be to clean up the growing number of defensive messes.
On Saturday night in Ottawa a capitulation period for the defensive issued snowed the team under by the end of the first period maybe so early that it was impossible to get a read on much else in this game.
With a three-game losing streak coming into the game and the need for some urgency, Jordan Staal took a slashing penalty nine seconds into the game. In retrospect, that seemed to forewarn of what was to come. Also open to interpretation was Ryan Dzingel fighting early in the first period. In 2018-19, I thought that Jordan Martinook, Micheal Ferland and Justin Williams had an incredibly good feel for the pulse of the team. Martinook had a knack for dialing up big hits early in games when the team needed it. Ferland did the same and also dropped the gloves a few times. And Williams had a surly attitude when the team’s play dictated surly early in the season. Sometimes teams needs someone to make some kind of statement that things NOT OKAY. The fact that the biggest thing I could point to to suggest someone had the pulse was a Dzingel fight maybe says a lot.
My count was four odd man rushes surrendered in the first 15ish minutes of the game. The result was two goals against, a phenomenal James Reimer save to stop another goal and a penalty taken to stop another grade A chance. When the dust settled on the first period, the Hurricanes were down 3-0 and the recent troubles defensively had quickly escalated from smoldering to an irrecoverable dumpster fire. No one was unscathed. Joel Edmundson got caught flat-footed at the defensive blue line to let two behind him for one of the odd man rushes and Ottawa’s first goal. Jake Gardiner was caught up ice on the penalty that Warren Foegele took. Dougie Hamilton made an ill-advised attempt to collect a puck off a center ice face-off. When he missed it was a breakaway and a third Ottawa goal. Hamilton had another where he let a player behind him for a 2-on-1 rush. It is so hard to evaluate much else in a game like this where so much went so horribly wrong so quickly on defense.
The Hurricanes were the better team in the second period, but much of that was likely the result of Ottawa adjusting their style of play with a three-goal lead. The greatest sign of hope cam when Andrei Svechnikov scored on the power play to get the Canes to within 3-1 at the midway point of the second period. The Hurricanes pushed for a bit after that goal, had the upper hand and had some chances to net another goal to pull within a goal. But it was not to be. The hockey gods frowned down based on not showing up for the first period and the Hurricanes exited the second period down 3-1.
The Hurricanes pushed a bit and had the edge in shots in the third period but the quality of chances was ‘meh’ at best. A few more somewhat excusable break downs resulted from the Canes gambling for goals late. One of those sealed the deal at 4-1 appropriately with another breakaway tally.
Whereas I actually thought Tuesday’s loss had a chance to be a stake in the ground and foundation for improvement, Saturday’s loss was undeniably a step backward. The team failed to show up for the first period and was just lackluster in general.
Player and other notes
1) Jordan Staal and the change in leadership
With Justin Williams gone and Jordan Martinook still out with injury, we are seeing the first serious test of the Hurricanes with Jordan Staal as the team’s leader. His slashing penalty nine seconds into the game was inauspicious to say the least. More significantly, I just question whether he is cut out for this role. Before Williams, the Hurricanes for the last decade (with Staal wearing a letter for most of it) just seemed unable to muster a response in situations like this. Staal is definitely under the microscope right now as this team tries to find itself.
2) James Reimer
While I do not think you can pin this game on Reimer, he had very little for answers when the team needed him to buy some time while they woke up for the game. He fought the puck throughout the first period and spit out rebounds left and right including on one of the first period goals. Again, he was a victim as much as a culprit, but at the same time I think it is fair to say that his runs his streak of being ‘meh’ or worse to four straight games.
3) The growing mess on defense
I think the defensive troubles right now are enough that Brind’Amour and his staff have it upon them to make some changes. The challenge is figuring out what. As I said on Twitter, the team has at most three (Slavin, Pesce and maybe van Riemsdyk) three defensemen who are doing the defense thing competently right now. Hiding behind his prolific scoring, Hamilton has been a train wreck of late. Gardiner has also struggled with decision-making in the neutral zone. And Edmundson seems to be struggling with the Hurricanes style that encourages defensemen to step up when maybe he is just better-suited for a conservative stay-home style. My recommendation, again per Twitter after the game, would be to go really top-heavy on steady. Right now, I think the issues are becoming contagious, and with the current balanced approach the team basically has holes across all three pairings. Slavin has had many more than his fair share if ‘iffy’ defensive plays trying to cover for Hamilton’s roving ways. I would build a short-term top 4 from Slavin, Pesce, van Riemsdyk and probably Fleury. I think that group offers the best chance to offer some steady and calm to stop the bleeding and reestablish a foundation.
4) Best need to be better
Early in the season, key players were struggling to produce. But some combination of overtime and shootout magic, timely depth scoring and a strong second power play unit made it possible for the Canes to win anyway. But as I said at the time, the team would need players like Aho to find a higher gear to win over the long haul. I think we have officially reached the long haul. Aho was on the ice for all four goals against on Saturday and was not a factor in a game when the other team’s best players were. He has had some fits and starts of late but has yet to really be a regular difference-maker now 17 games into the season. Staal had the odd penalty to start the game and has also been ‘meh’ of late. He is uncharacteristically piling up obstruction type penalties and has yet to score in November. The path upward will need to include the team’s best players being exactly that.
Next up for the Hurricanes is a rematch against the Senators in Raleigh on Monday night.
Go Canes!
The Canes are in a downward spiral right now. As Rod said after the game, when you’re on a roll you’re unstoppable, but it’s equally hard to turn things around when you’re in a skid.
We all thought the Canes had the best D core in the league, it’s worked out to be anything but lately. Hopefully some reshuffling can do the trick, on paper the talent is clear, but the success is measured on the ice.
I’ve never been a fan of naming Jordan Staal captain, in TV interviews he has all the charm of a damp paper towel and while he’s a great guy and has been a great defensive forward throughout the years, he’s never seemed comfortable with the media or having the ability to put the team on his back. I think the C is weighing him down as seen by a massive uptake in uncharacteristic defensive miscues and Rod all but called him out in the post game conference.
JW, even during the bad times last year, had the ability to keep things interesting and finding ways to make the environment fun for the players when the results weren’t coming.
Aho has played like a rookie recently, I am concerned about him, it seems like he lost his hands and some of his drive before the playoffs started last year and is still looking. He’s definitely not looking like an 8.5 mill topline center.
We’re hitting make or break time soon, hopefully we’ll have a 500 record by Thanksgiving which, honestly, is better than in amny seasons, but in order to do that someone’s got to step up and go a bit berserk on the ice.
The big question is what is different. Since last season and since the beginning of this season.
To start with the latter question, I would answer vey little. I mentioned after the third game that trailing after two periods was not a long-term strategy for success. Just a reminder that even at 5-0 the Canes weren’t dominating.
As far as last season I am beginning to wonder if it was a perfect storm of good fortune. Both goalies played career-best, Nino quickly played his best-ever hockey, and Faulk became a top-pairing D-man. Ownership/management/coaching anticipated that any goalies would suffice, that new forwards would produce more magic, and that Faulk was easily replaced. Through five games everyone was singing the praise of the activity from the higher ups. Logically now that is where the questions should start.
It is easier to blame individual players whose stats are not great. However, that seems to miss the point that four straight losses to average teams indicate a systemic problem.
I believe the systemic problem is this team has not bought in to a playing style. They are doing what they want to do, which is problematic. The inconsistent forcheck and lack of defensive responsibility are the hallmarks of a losing hockey team.
The loss of Faulk and Williams are proving to be very significant.
Pretty much nailed it, Matt. Things are snowballing. The poor defensive efforts are now much more evident when they have hit a scoring slump. To make matters worse the goaltending is pretty blah. When the Canes make a mistake they can pretty much count on it being in the back of the net. It’s not Scott Darling bad, but pretty much Cam Ward bad. None of it adds up to wins.
As much as Hamilton deserves the business for his awful defensive play of late, He doesn’t deserve all the blame for the third goal. Teravainen allowed his man to blow right through him on the faceoff which started that gongshow.
Sure, the media loves the defense because analytics say Dougie Hamilton is the best in the league. Analytics also have indicated that Gardiner is a high end player. This is the weakness in analytics. They don’t accurately account for the number of gaffes or breakdowns that lead to great opportunities. The bottom line is video is greater than analytics in hockey. Always.
As far as personnel goes the switch from de Haan to Edmundson has been pretty much a wash. Going from Faulk to Gardiner has been a huge step backwards. Love to see Fleury get a shot over Gardiner, but that contract will keep Gardiner in the lineup to the detriment of the team. Gardiner signing at this point is a colossal mistake. The Canes used up their remaining cap space to sign a player that is making them worse. All the discussion of trading for a top 9 forward is mostly for naught unless the Canes can unload salary. The obvious choice would be Reimer, but who in the world would take on that salary? The Canes took it because they could get rid of Darling. The Committee has mismanaged the cap badly for this season.
Well, the new signings at forward have actually been pretty good (with Hala in the lineup the Canes are a much better team), so I’ll give management credit for those two).
I’m not a fan of Gibbons, I think keeping Roy or one of the other forwards would’ve been better, but it’s a top 13 forward and I think our guys have not fared that much better away.
Reimer was an understandable situation, better than Darling I guess, so credit for that.
To me, the biggest mistake was the Merlaux signing, wasting 6M in cap space (enough to sign a good top 9 forward from the bargain bin) to help Toronto, it still absolutely perplexes me.
I think naming Jordan Staal as captain was also a mistake, he is not a leader, and a great hockey player does not have to be a locker room leader. I think the responsibility is weighing him down and diverting his attention from the game.
I never liked the Faulk trade (but I also like Hala, so it’s hard for me to be overly critical of that).
I thought the Gardner signing was good, and there’s still a chance he could gel, but we’re having a bit of a perfect storm of issues right now.
I agree that despite the magical start, and I had a lot of fun, only 1 or 2 periods felt like the team was really on top of its game, A favorable set of bounces and timely scoring worked in our favor, and by the law of statistics it’s only natureal that there are times it doesn’t.
Still, this is a leadership test, a coaching test, the team has to overcome adversity now, they cannot go on a massive magic run in the spring, it was a miracle and everything came together last year, I do not believe taht kind of run happens more than once every 5 or 10 years for a team.
The ship is still a float.
Wait, sorry, I’m being a total idiot here, the trade track record is more mixed.
The trade for Hala was to Vegas (nothing to do with Faulk), it was totally acceptable, I’d label it a good trade.
The Faulk trade (to STL for Edmunson), I wasn’t a fan then, not a big fan now, but he’s an acceptable big stay-at-home type of guy, a bigger and more experienced (also more expensive) version of Fleury. I think it was a pretty sizeable downgrade, though I don’t think Faulk has been elite with Stl either.
CDH is getting rave reviews with the Blackhawks
https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Tyler-Cameron/The-stars-are-starting-to-show-up-for-Blackhawks/253/102552
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while what the Canes received in return was a borderline AHL D man (we had plenty of those before) and a goalie that is good but forced out of a meaningful role by the goalie logjam, in other words, nothing to improve the team this year.