For the second consecutive game, the Hurricanes came close to winning the road game needed to return home with a chance to finish the series at home in five games. For the second consecutive game, the Hurricanes fell short after pushing the game into a second overtime.
I thought Sunday’s loss was different in the sense that the Hurricanes were the better team with more chances for most of the game with two critical exceptions. First, the Hurricanes had too many big ‘oopses’ of the variety that lead directly to a goal against. Second, I thought the overtime was more even than the regulation portion of the game.
In regulation, the Hurricanes had the advantage by every statistical measure except the scoreboard. The team had roughly a 2 to 1 advantage in terms of shots, shots on goal and scoring chances but were still stuck in an even game for two reasons. First, the Canes made too many costly errors. Second, Juuse Saros played his best game of the series.
Nashville scored first when Dougie Hamilton turned the puck over by putting it on a Predators’ stick when the Hurricanes were changing lines. The result was a quick transition that saw Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei try unsuccessfully to scramble into position. When the puck got behind them Luke Kunin was in alone and beat Alex Nedeljkovic.
The oddest of the ‘oopses’ was the Predators second goal. Nedeljkovic had the puck and then all of a sudden did not. The replay shows Hamilton, who should have been that overcautious player there with his stick ready to push the puck back to the goalie, skating away. The far side of the screen also has Jake Bean and I believe Brock McGinn (cannot tell for sure on second player) doing the same thing. When the puck popped loose it was an easy goal for the Predators.
Then finally in overtime Hamilton was front and center again when he maybe guessed on a pass around the boards. When the puck did not go that way, Hamilton was caught defending no one as he circled the net while the Predators quickly capitalized with a centering pass to the scorer who Hamilton should have been defending.
The loss was a bitter pill to swallow because the Hurricanes mostly outplayed the Predators for large sections of regulation before a more even trade of chances in overtime.
Player and other notes
1) Easier road now gone
The Hurricanes arrived in Nashville really just needing to win one of two games to carve a path to a somewhat easy first round win and avoid early adversity. After consecutive losses, anything easy has evaporated into thin air. At a bare minimum, the Hurricanes will now need to travel to Nashville again and play at least six games.
2) Dougie Hamilton
After games three and four, I think Hamilton is now the single biggest key to how the series ends. He has struggled in general in the series and put an even bigger exclamation point on that in Sunday’s loss. Whether he continues to sink or gets fired up and rebounds could determine how the series ends.
3) Alex Nedeljkovic
He had the horrible error for the Predator’s second goal, but impressed me after that. He made one of his best saves of the series almost immediately after the goal against and made a few more dandies in the third period. Obviously the error was a costly one, but Nedeljkovic deserves credit to responding very well to his personal adversity.
4) Brock McGinn
McGinn continues to show the urgency approach for the playoffs on every shift. On Sunday he was rewarded with two goals. In general, the bottom half of the forward group seems to most be dialed in for playoff-level intensity. If they could transfer a bit more to the top half, it could do wonders for the team.
5) The blue line
I could write three articles just on the situation with the blue line right now. Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei have done all they can to replace Jaccob Slavin’s minutes, but Pesce in particular looked he was completely out of gas at the end of a lot of shifts even toward the end of regulation. If at some point, Pesce and Skjei reach the point where a day off is not enough to rejuvenate them, that could be the beginning of the end of the Hurricanes 2020-21 season.
Hamilton is documented above.
The series is also a testament to how much Jaccob Slavin means to the Hurricanes. On the road, his absence has exposed the Hurricanes lack of depth capable of filling out the top 4. The absence of Slavin’s defensive ability is part (not all) of Hamilton’s struggles. In addition, the players trying to step up into the top 4 look to be overslotted.
6) Waiting on the young guns
When the Hurricanes mostly stood pat in the off-season (which was the right move), the expectation was the next step up would come from the team’s young starts continuing to grow as players. That happened in the regular season, but thus far has not carried over as well to the playoffs. Sebastian Aho has been productive not a stand out. Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas have both mustered a few moments but also have not stood out in the series.
7) The bigger picture short-term is rosier than it feels
In terms of winning against the Predators, the situation is not nearly as dire as it feels. The series is now a best of three with two games in Raleigh. Combine that with the fact that the Hurricanes were the better team on Sunday if you adjust out costly errors, and the path is certainly there for the Hurricanes to emerge victorious even if it takes seven games.
8) The bigger longer-term could what is most being impacted
But the issue lurking could be the impact of this series. Will the weight of early adversity sap confidence and momentum and pull the Canes to the ground in round two? Will the physical toll of having to overuse Skjei and Pesce in three consecutive games suck the energy out of them in a way that does not return? Might the Hurricanes now push Slavin back ealier than otherwise desperately needing a win? The potential is definitely there for collateral damage from the series against Nashville to sink the team later.
Next up is a return to the friendly confines of PNC Arena on Tuesday night.
Go Canes!
The Canes are still very much in it, hopefully to win it.
But this really underlines the downright baffling decisions made at the trade deadline.
While every other team in the hunt used the playoff deadline (which really was a buyer’s market) to strengthen their rosters for the playoffs, the Canes went the miserly way of trying to save 500 grand on D.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Hakanpa was a decent aquisission, the kid has played pretty well as a solid right-handed third pairing D, but trading a way a D-man who knew the system, played reasonably well and could step into the top 4 as a fill-in could ultimately be what dooms the Canes.
Jani likely could have been had for a second round pick. Better yet, packaged with Rickard Rakell (tough guy with a nose for the net) to really send the message, to fans and players, that this team could have it all.
Heck, Taylor Hall was available for a pretty reasonable price, and look what he’s done for the Bruins since being traded.
No doom saying, but I don’t feel good about how the Canes are playing, it looks like a team that is out of gas, fading fast, and doesn’t have the answers needed to get to the next round. I hope and half expect to be wrong here, and I’ll be cheering on the Canes no matter what. But I think it’s up to Slaven now. If he can return, the Canes can get over the hump. If he’s out, I think the team is out too. If they are, I blame poor trade deadline decisions.
Related to the blue line, trade deadline inactivity and Fleury/Hakanpaa trade, here is maybe an interesting observation…
As far as filling #5/#6 slot, I think trading Fleury for Hakanpaa makes sense. Hakanpaa is maybe a little steadier, more consistently physical and a right shot. But as far as having the best option possible to fill a hole in the top 4 due to injury, I like Fleury better. The risk is the less steadiness factor, but his mobility pegs his ceiling higher, and I think makes him more capable of being a capable top 4 at least on a good day.
I think the Hakanpaa trade was as much cultural as a hockey trade. Don’t think Fleury was well thought of by coaching/management. He earned himself a poor reputation his last couple years in junior and I don’t think he ever overcame it. Happens sometimes. Hope the change of scenery does him well. Hakanpaa fits in well with size, right shot, and personality. If we’re grinding because he’s not fit to be a top 4 guy, well…that’s not why the Canes lost the last couple games.
Excellently put!
And Fleury’s salary was somewhere in the realm of 1.2 million .. not exactly a crippling burden for the franchise.
The two of them could’ve been had for around 2 mill. Well under the salary cap, and the team could’ve placed Gardner on LITR (since his play is very subpar, probably due to a lingering injury).
As tough as it is to be positive after two double-OT losses, the Canes are still in the drivers seat, IMO. It took 2-OT for the Preds to win at home with last change and the home crowd. The Canes return home to their crowd and last change. There are several Canes that are not ready to check a first line in the playoffs. Pretty much all the forwards in the Canes top 6 are on this list. Everyone on D but Pesce and Skjei are on this list. I think the Canes will right the ship on Tuesday with a win.
As far as defense goes I think the vaunted “depth” of the Canes D core was a mirage. Outside of Pesce, Slavin and Skjei these guys are ill suited for the playoffs. I like Hakanpaa and he makes a great third pairing guy, but he is over his head when he gets matched up against top forwards. Tough for him on the road. Bean has issues with size and strength, but plays a smart game. Still, he needs to add something offensively and that has been zero so far.
Hamilton is Playoff Dougie. We’ve seen this before. It’s not a fluke. It’s who he is. Soft and casual on D he is a big liability, and without Slavin to cover his butt it’s really noticeable. If he’s going to be bad on D he at least has to add something offensively, but he’s not even jumping in as much as Pesce. The Canes need to let him walk. They can’t tie up that much money in a guy who kills them in the playoffs. The Canes can find someone more reliable at a lot less $. Ryan Murray would look nice in a Canes jersey. Slavin can move pucks around at the top of the PP, which is all Hamilton has been doing lately.
Agree completely with Canes still being in the driver’s seat. Trying to be reasonably objective, I think Canes are still a better team, and on home ice, it is much easier for Brind’Amour to manage defensemen as long as Pesce and Skjei do not hit a wall physically. I thinking Canes find a way in game 5 and if they do, the chances of winning the series is probably 80% with both games in Nashville being toss ups really and Canes still having game 7 at home.
Bigger question is whether this first round sucks too much out of them. Pesce looked like he had spent all he had left at the end of nearly every shift for 2nd half of game and overtime on Sunday.
That can go 2 ways…
Pretty much every team that wins the Cup faces adversity at some point. Maybe best is to get it over with early against a team that they can hopefully beat playing at less than 100%. Then catch their breath and find that higher gear.
The other way is that they are just spending too much energy both physically and mentally too early and will pay for it against a Lightning team that is incredibly good.
Beating Tampa Bay with a healthy roster was going to be a tall task, but with no Slavin it’s nearly unthinkable. Hope we get to see it anyway.
Agreed, a double OT game is really just a toss of a coin, who happens to capitalize first, and Nashville got lucky twice.
I think Svech could/should sign for a lot less than top $ for next season, the second half of his regular season + palyoffs show he’s a great guy but hasn’t quite hit his giddy potential height yet and should accept at least a bridge deal to get there.
Hamilton has been pretty terrible in the post season, which should affect his ask/stay potential. I think he’s already decided to sign elsewhere (one of the TV interviews with him was very awkward, he kept indicating that he was not committed to Carolina and didn’t really drop a nice word about the team or the fans despite being prompted).
Too bad we couldn’t convince Adam Fox to stay, he was tearing it up with the Rangers (on a team that overall had a pretty down season).
Haven’t seen that TV interview with Hamilton. Hey, it’s his life and last chance for a big contract. I can’t blame him for getting as much as he can, I just don’t think the Canes should be the ones paying him.
Adam Fox might even win the Norris this year. He’s still pretty suspect on D as well. Be interesting to see him in the playoffs.
Hey guys, I am reasonably sure that the Fleury trade was considered necessary because of the expansion Draft! Francis would have most likely picked Fleury, so trading him for a physical d-man meant we got something that we needed instead of just losing him for nothing! Good move…IMO!!
I see what you mean, but it still strikes me as an odd set of priorities, instead of worrying about having the best possible roster for the playoffs you, (you being the Canes GM), start worrying about losing a second/third pairing defenseman (one that you’ve never been all that high on anyway) as part of the expansion draft.
The Canes likely could’ve sign Hakenpa on the UFA market instead of trading for him, which would have come to the same (5th or 6th round picks aside).