With October officially in the rear view mirror, we turn our sights to November. The 4-4-2 mark in October basically pushes the ball forward without much clarifying whether the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes can avoid digging a hole early in the season. As noted in today’s Daily Cup of Joe article, the road-heavy December schedule makes it even more critical that the Hurricanes at least tread water and ideally climb a few games above .500 in November.
The Thursday Coffee Shop considers November, its importance and the prospect of playing at least the first two games of it without Brett Pesce.
Carolina Hurricanes polls
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Discussion questions
1) Which player(s) are you looking for the lead the next step up from .500 hockey in November?
2) If you were Bill Peters, how would you configure and manage the blue line without Brett Pesce in the lineup?
3) What do you predict for November?
Go Canes!
1) I think the goalies might be the story of November. Darling is not going to be a .897 for much longer. A month where he is .925 is coming. Also, with the new goalie coach, a better third pairing (even with Pesce out Dahlbeck is better than Tennyson or Murphy last season), and defensively solid fourth line, Ward is playing like what he is–a good NHL goalie. I can see Darling going 5-3 in eight starts and Ward going 3-1-1 in five. That is a good November.
2) Two different options with blue line that I like. Use Slavin on right side probably with Fleury and let Dahlback and TVR on the third. I think my preferred option is pair Fleury with McKeown as they are familiar from AHL play together. The first pairing would be Slavin and TVR. I think this would work because van Riemsdyk actually averaged almost 20 minutes per game at the end of last season.
3) As mentioned above 17 out of 26 points.
I will also post here about the point you make about Aho. I totally agree that his current 41-point pace is only “depth” scoring. However, 41 assists is impressive. The thing is, he is much more likely to continue the pace for assists than he is to get 10 or fewer goals. IN fact, I think he is likely to end the year with around 40 assists and 18 goals. So a 55+ point season looks about right. Not Backstrom territory for being heavy on assists, but quite a bit better than depth scoring.
One final point in case I don’t get around to commenting in the WIW thread for tonight’s game. Thus far the opposing goalie’s play has correlated with Carolina’s scoring. The next two games should see 7 or more goals.
1. Lead. Staal and Faulk need to lead on the ice! Im not seeing it. Williams is the only leader on the ice. Those two need to start pushing these guys to play like the 2nd period against Anaheim, for every period. Ruffle feathers, break some eggs, or hug em up. What ever it takes to be the leader of the team.
2. Man Pesce out stinks.
Im going:
Slavin-TVR
Fleury-Faulk
Hanifin-McKeown
TVR is a better option as a shutdown guy than Faulk or McKeown. Faulk and Hanifin need to be separated.
3. We need to, not should, win 7 games and get a few OT losses. Looking at the current standings we need to get 12 points every ten games to be in a the playoff picture. So we need to get 14 over the next ten to catch up. Need at least 4 points out of the final 3 to keep us on schedule for a road heavy December.
1. I think the team is going to succeed by committee with Skinner and Williams doing the most heavy lifting offensively. However they need Aho to start scoring goals.
2. I think we see Slavin TVR. Hanifin Faulk and Fleury Mckeown. The third pairing has already logged minutes together in the AHL and I’m not comfortable with Hanifin or Faulk on the top pairing. If I had to, if move Slavin to his offside and give the chance to Hanifin.
3. I think the team goes slightly above .500 which would be fine. I’m not expecting this roster to lock up a playoff spot early especially since the team is a perennially slow starter. They just can’t dig themselves a hole and I’ll consider November a success.
1. I like CT’s comment on goalies – I think Darling is due to settle in. I was looking at a fancy stat site (Corsica) and the aspect that stands out about him is that while he is as good as anyone (and they are all good) when it comes to Low-Danger percentage, his curve falls off with Mid-Danger, and plummets to .75 at High Danger (CT can correct me if I am using the wrong terms! 😀 ). A good goalie has to make those high-danger saves and I hope the low percentage is really a factor of getting more comfortable – he is being asked to play a little differently than he was in CHI. I would love to find historic numbers for Darling in CHI.
It is easy to say that Aho and Lindholm need to start scoring – and when they do (and they will) that will lift the team. As much as I like Staal, I actually wonder if his style of play is a negative factor for both Aho and Lindholm, limiting their offensive opportunities and ability to make plays. Again, I think Turbo is a better complement for Staal than Aho, and I have liked Williams on Staal’s right. The implication here is that reconfiguring lines is essential to get some players off and running.
2. Apparently at practice they has D-men all over the place – including Slavin on his off-side. It would be great to have McKeown show he can play at this level. Dahlbeck is solid on his left-side, so we have adequate back-up there. But having the option to know we can call up someone solid from Charlotte if we lose a right D would be excellent. I don’t think we need to find a depth defenseman who can play both sides. Definitionally that sounds incongruent.
3. I won’t predict anything for November – but what I hope for is a minimum of 17 points (out of 26).
We are playing two teams who have beat us this season (CBJ, twice on the road, and DAL) and one team we have beat (TOR), two .500 teams playing above the expectations (NYI, twice, and COL – who plays a fast game and should open the ice for us), five struggling teams (NYR – isn’t it nice to say that – BUF, FLA, CHI, and ARI) and last year’s SC finalist (NSH) that is playing below expectations.
For the most part these teams line up in our alley with style of play. We can expect some tough games, of course, but if we are the team I want to think we are we should do very well this month.
1/ I think we gave the “C” to Staal and Faulk and they are going to have to lead with their play. I may be a minority here, but I think Staal has been Staal and generally good, and we’re getting what we should expect from him. Faulk clearly has more to give on both sides of the puck. It would be nice if Aho could break the ice here but I’m less worried about our scoring than most. Darling needs to settle in.
2/ No idea. The only thing I would add is that we get a little lucky playing COL/ARI where (in theory) we should be able to score goals to take pressure of the Defense and especially Darling. We should also think about shortening the bench.
3/ Again, I’m not overly worried about where we are now after the October schedule, but this month sets up nicely in front of a difficult December. No games in the league are easy – we dropped both road games we have this week last year – but it’s time to assert ourselves. Only 6 of 13 games this month are against last year’s playoff teams, none are what I’d consider to be “heavy” teams, and the NYI are the only team on the list playing markedly better than expected. I think a very good stretch is possible if Darling settles in. I’d be thrilled with 16+ points.
I drink (but don’t smoke…yet), I’m definitely thinking of starting, THOUGH! I fail to see how we OUTSCORE…ANYBODY and w/o Pesce…HOW THE HELL ARE WE GOING TO STOP OTHERS?
Assuming TVR and Slavin play 30+ min. MAYBE we hold teams down to 6 or 7 goals… HELP!!
Said this in recent posts but usually towards the end so will say it again. Next 10 games will tell us where this team is at, whether serious playoff contender or not. 15+ points over this stretch gets us into playoff contender category. Less than 12 points means we are the same borderline .500 team.
Winning teams don’t ride their hopes on long winning streaks to catapult their seasons (that’s like playing the lottery, hoping yet falling short). Winning teams string together various smaller win streaks while bouncing back from losses. We need to be that team and carry that mentality starting today.
Play McKeown and sit Dahlbeck. Keep everyone on their natural sides (no matter the pairings). Though I agree with someone above to put TVR with Slavin.