If you were away from Canes and Coffee early in the week, I think the Monday Coffee Shop is one of the most interesting ever in terms of poll responses and worth a look. Without spoiling it, the difference between who WILL be the next captain and who SHOULD be the next captain was interesting as was both the choice and maybe even more so the margin of victory for who would be the Hurricanes captain in four years.
If you missed yesterday’s ‘initial thoughts’ on the Jaccob Slavin re-signing, you can find that HERE. The Thursday Coffee Shop polls and discussion consider Jaccob Slavin’s deal and also which other players scheduled to become restricted free agents next summer could also be in line to be re-signed early.
Check out also today’s Daily Cup of Joe. The article presents the pros and cons for early new contracts for each of the other six players scheduled to become restricted free agents next summer.
Carolina Hurricanes polls
Please remember to click ‘vote’ after each individual poll response.
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Discussion questions
There are also comments in the article about Jaccob Slavin’s re-signing, but we might as well also bring the discussion into the coffee shop.
1) What are your thoughts on Jaccob Slavin’s deal including the price, the term and more generally what it means for him and our hockey team going forward?
2) Are there any players among the other pending restricted free agents who you think are must-sign or close for this summer versus waiting until after the 2017-18 season? Why?
3) Who else would you most like to see re-signed early? For whom do you see less reason to rush into it?
Go Canes!
This deal is a 10! Players like this don’t grow on trees and are overly expensive on the open market. The price is reasonable given the quality and work ethic you know he will bring. Plus, how great it is to have a player who wants to stay in Raleigh and make it his home. Great deal all around.
Interesting points from GMRF during the presser. I believe Pesce is eager to extend and I’m anticipating 6yr/5mil per. TVR may want to feel out things in Raleigh before committing mid-term, so I can see both sides pending matters.
Hanifin is where I think things become more tricky. I believe both sides are suggesting to wait and see. This is why I see Hanifin’s progress in 2017-18 being the determining factor on Faulks’s long term future. Reason being, if Hanifin proves top 4 (or top 2) worthy numbers in 2017-18, then GMRF likely locks him up for 7 or 8 years next spring/summer. However, if Hanifin is borderline top 4D in performance, and Fleury progresses, then I believe GMRF then makes a decision to flip either Hanifin or Faulk. The likelihood of us keeping Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin and Faulk long term are not likely (remember our rising offense needs to be paid, too).
I read the other posts after submitting mine. I agree with your Hanifin comments.
I love the Slavin extension. I think it is an extremely fair term and will be an incredible bargain a few years from now. He is obviously a character individual who has embraced the Raleigh market , which is the type of player committing to long term is a no brainer. With the contracts players like Alzner and Shattenkirk received this off season a 5.3 AAV is more than reasonable.
As for Pesce, if Francis can get him to sign a similar length contract in the 4-4.5 range , I would do it now. If not, then waiting until next off season is not that much of a risk.
I don’t see as much of a rush for Hanifin and Lindholm but if Francis could get them signed in the 3-3.5 range I would do it but not sure either would be interested in that type of deal at this point. I do see more upside in both of them but I don’t have as much confidence in theirs as I do with Slavin/Pesce.
I am wondering if LIVE_FREE_OR_DIE’s comment about Faulk is a year too late. What if this is a precursor to a Duchene/Faulk trade later this summer. I think the key will be if we sign one of the other D-men to an extension.
1/ Love the contract, not worried about the term or contract value, which will look favorable over time if his play continues as-is (downside scenario) or gets better (probable). Very glad he has become a cornerstone player. He’ll be wearing a letter soon enough.
2/ I think you’ve framed the Pesce situation perfectly. I think we all want him signed long-term, too, but I see his offensive ceiling as the lowest of our Core 4; I also see his defensive ceiling as maybe the highest; and I think he’s a character guy, so something at or a little below Slavin’s deal wouldn’t worry me much though I’d prefer 5-6 yrs over 7.
The more interesting situation to me is Lindholm. I for one believe his step up in play from December on last year was not a fluke but was a permanent improvement in his game. Something clicked for him. He is a rugged player, still getting stronger, and has the biggest gap to his offensive ceiling on the roster other than Aho. The image of him set up “in his office” to the side of the net on the PP flipping passes to JS in front of the net is the sign of bigger things to come. Maybe that’s more hope than reality, but I’m a believer.
I know we’ve all been looking for our 1C in a trade this offseason, but I believe we have 2 1C’s on the roster today (Aho being the other) – they’re just not ready to play Center at that level yet – but when we fast-forward 1-2 years, we’re going to look remarkably deep down the middle (with Staal, Rask, Roy, Wallmark, Kuokkanen, Saarela, etc). It might not even take that long. Weakness can become strength fairly quickly in this league.
Would I bet on Lindholm now? I’m not sure I would; it’s a really tough call, but the cost of waiting could be extremely high if he takes another big step forward this season, which would not surprise me one bit. I would be fine doing a Rask-like deal now, or even a little richer at the same term (ie., 6-yr / 28-30). Otherwise, I think we could be into Drouin territory next Summer.
3/ No one else on the list makes sense to extend now. Matt’s analysis squares perfectly with my thinking. This is a big year for Hanifin.
dmiller. Excellent points as always. I completely agree that Lindholm’s game saw permanent improvement. I fully expect a 60-point season.
You also hit the bullseye with your comments about the center position–and you didn’t even include Necas. It will be a real strength in the near future. My guess is the 2019 roster has Aho, Staal, Saarela/Roy, and Wallmark as the centers. Don’t know what happens to Rask. I think Lindholm stays on the right just because the one “weakness” for the organization even in the future is right-hand shots.
dmiller, you know me. A man of ten thousand words to say what you have said perfectly in much less space. All your points are well taken IMO and there is no need for me to comment further. (Aside: dmiller, before jumping in glee at my assessment of your points, remember my disclaimer. It might not be a compliment in some reader’s eyes, rather it might be considered a bad omen.) All kidding aside, very good assessment IMO.
1) I like the deal. However, with the amount being set at more than $5 million, it may cause cap issues in two years because I think Lindholm’s agent should be able to make a case that he is as important to the team as Slavin. Then Aho and Skinner could cost a combined $15M. And TT might improve significantly and cost around $4M. So in an ideal world, $4.5-$4.8M would have been the number.
2) Pesce is a must sign. I have said repeatedly and continue to believe that over the next 8 years he will be every bit as valuable as Slavin.
Matt, in your other post you indicate that Slavin will just have more scoring opportunities due to PP time. If that is the case, then it indicates the organization is over-committed to Slavin. Because the analytics is clear that PP units should be 4 forwards and 1 D. So the top two units have to be Faulk then Hanifin and/or TVR (the extra right shot might favor TVR). While Slavin is solid on PP and has scoring upside, I just don’t see the case that he is a better LHD on the PP than Hanifin. Which leads me to hope Hanifin is re-signed, because he is the devfenseman with whose scoring is likely to improve dramatically this season.
If the PP improves (and that seems to be a real possibility and a focus this season) then Lindholm should benefit. So the smart move would be to get him before the cost increases. That brings me back to my original position that Slavin, Pesce, and Lindholm need to be re-signed.
3) No reason to rush on TVR. There is too much risk re-signing a player who has yet to play for the organization.
Here is something I would be arguing if I were Pesce’s agent:
Slavin is a left-side defensemen. Fleury is a left shot LHD who was a top-10 pick and appears to be really solid defensively. Hanifin is a left shot who plays on the left side and apparently was seen by the organization as too valuable to trade for 1C. Bean is the top D prospect and is a left-shooting, LHD. At some point, the team has one too many quality left-shooting LHDs. Obviously Slavin is valued highly because he is the only proven shut-down LHD.
The right side has Faulk, who is a scoring D, and TVR who is solid but not an elite shut-down D. McKeown is likely to have NHL-level ability, but not the likelihood/potential that Bean has.
All that leads to the conclusion that Pesce is the organization’s most valuable 200-foot RHD. He is every bit as valuable as Slavin.
A couple of thoughts in response to previous comments before getting getting to Matt’s questions.
I absolutely don’t see us trading Faulk – for Duchene or anyone. He is the only proven offensive D-man on the team and is vital for the power play and 5×5. Trade him and we have minimal offense from the blueline.
In two years we are going to have some real payroll concerns. Skinner is going to want a hefty raise (with term) to stay with the club. Teuvo and Aho are both due up. All discussions about what happens this summer have to keep that in mind. I haven’t done the math myself lately to know where we stand.
I don’t remember Slavin on the power play that much – I thought it was Faulk and Hanifin. I am not sure how much that will affect a relative assessment of Slavin and Pesce if Slavin doesn’t get that much in the way of PP time.
I have already stated my liking of the Slavin contract. It’s just real good.
As for the other 6:
Pesce – I think it is better than 50/50 that Pesce signs this year. I don’t see him signing for the same term/dollars as Slavin, however, although I don’t have any real reason to think so. I will be very interested to see what they do. But as has been discussed, Slavin’s salary sets the ceiling – albeit a bit higher than we were talking about a month ago.
Hanifin – Noah will do well to wait until the end of next season to sign. He needs a strong body of work to command anything like Slavin and he knows it. I think he is going to have a tremendous, and we will be paying him big dollars on a contract signed after next season.
Lindholm – I agree this is a tricky one. I don’t think most people give Lindy full credit. His game wasn’t any different earlier in the season than in the last half – his results were different. And he is still one of the leaders in 5×5 primary assists. He is valuable. I think he will be reluctant to sign anything early unless it is a great deal – I see the team reluctant to offer a great deal. But I expect Rask is the floor for Lindy’s next deal.
TvR – I think both sides are taking the sensible approach of let’s see what he is like this season as a Cane.
Nordstrom – I like Nordy a lot, but I see no urgency to sign him early. With the young forwards coming up in 2 years, I am not sure what his role will be with the team after this season.
Dahlbeck – I don’t see him as a priority at all. He is pretty much trade bait in the next year or two, I think. Although I do like his grit and style of play. We are getting clogged for NHL d-man, and he is readily replaceable.
raleightj, between you and dmiller everything I could add to the topics has been covered better than I could say it. I especially like your point by point explanations. Regarding all the other contributors, I think every one of the points made by them are well stated. I might disagree with one or two on minor points, but I am excited to see all the new names presenting new ideas and points of view. As usual, the comments of icecobra, ctcaniac and live_free, etc….(the site veterans) are well stated.
RR, I’m with you on NOT trading Faulk although in fairness I wasn’t there with you in January when all the Duchene talk started and Faulk’s game wasn’t in gear.
(In fact, after processing all this Duchene trade talk here and in the general nhl blog-land, I’m fairly sure that Duchene isn’t worth trading for, period. His 2-yr term kills all his value – I actually think a sign-and-trade this time next summer might bring a far bigger return. But I’m digressing.)
I also like the fact that you’re thinking about the future Cap issues we’re likely to face as our RFA’s get extended – and I agree that it’s going to take some fine GM-ing by RF or we’ll be in real trouble. EDM and TOR face the crunch next year so RF will get one year to learn from their maneuvering.
Matt, now that the dust has mostly settled on the Cap for ’17-18 and there are far fewer variables and we have a new set of comps for contracts/extensions league-wide, maybe a “2-3 yr Cap projection” post in tandem with a “what that means for the lineup in ’18-19” post is in order for general discussion?
1) I am very happy with the Jaccob Slavin’s deal. I think the price will be a bargain in the future. He likes Raleigh as a home, he has great character and even upside. Let’s face it, there are no guarantees with any contract. I think RF made a very good calculated decision for the future of this franchise.
2) Yes, I stated yesterday that Brett Pesce should also be extended. Pesce did not have the offense but earlier in our conversations it was pointed out the Pesce was the best defender. I think he should also get a similar contract. Maybe not as much offense but maybe even better defense. What’s not too like? RF is building for the long term. Now is the time. Lock them in before they become supper expensive. I also would extend Elias Lindholm. He was an assist machine and could still offer great upside on goal scoring. I think he is coming into his own.
3) I would hold off on Trevor van Riemsdyk. I do think he will be great but we do not want to pull a “Lack” and sign him before we see him in action on our team.
Klas Dahlbeck could be resign next year if he turs out to be valuable as a #7.
I think Noah Hanifin will probably himself hold out until next year. He still has to show some consistency, so IMO I would wait for another year to see if he really excels to what we think he is capable.
Joakim Nordstrom was not at first protected in the expansion draft. I think that says something. He is good defensively and PK but leaves a bit to be desired offensively. He can be signed at the end of the year if he is still needed. We will have AHL guys competing, for spots, so I would not sign him ahead of time. A so-so year and he will not be on the team next year.
Practically every issue has been covered well, and in depth, so I’ll be brief…! Slavin signing is RF’s best (or at least top3) MOVE…EVER!! Pesce is nearly as valuable, and should be signed for almost as much (but maybe 5/6 years). I’m undecided with Lindy…
Rask got too much IMO, and though Lindy seems a bit better…I’m not sure he has BIG UPSIDE… ?
While our prospects have much PROMISE, maybe we all have been drinking a little too much kool-aid…! So I’ll be happy if even a couple of them are better than average NHLers.
Right now if we could trade a prospect or two with a player /pick for a top6 center I’d love it! I’d give up Rask or TT in a heartbeat…!
…I guess I don’t do brief very well, eh?