With Ron Francis’ trade for Scott Darling on Friday, April 28 and then the announcement that Darling had been signed this past Friday, the Hurricanes’ offseason is off to a fast start. If you were away from Canes hockey this weekend, you can find my write up on the Darling signing HERE.
With what I think was the biggest need over the offseason addressed already, the big question is “What’s next?” No doubt, Francis still has work to do to build a roster for the start of the 2017-18 season.
The Monday Coffee Shop gives you the chance to predict what happens next and also what happens in total for the rest of the Hurricanes’ offseason. Please check out the companion Daily Cup of Joe today that assesses the various moves left to be made and my best guess for which happen and which happen first.
Carolina Hurricanes polls
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Discussion questions
1) Of the four rising young players scheduled to come off inexpensive contracts next summer (Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin) who would you most want to lock up to a long-term deal early? Which is the greatest risk for seeing his salary skyrocket with a big 2017-18 season?
2) What is your prediction for the most likely transaction to happen next? What is your prediction for a transaction or deal that is not from the list of reasonably expected summer moves?
Go Canes!
1) I have been saying lock up Slavin and Pesce. They are a great tandem. Both showed signs of adding more scoring. My presumption is that both are part of the team’s long-range plans, so no reason to risk allowing either to be part of a bidding war next year. Having said that, Lindholm is really the only one whose salary could “skyrocket.” If he puts up 20 goals and 65 points (which isn’t an unreasonable expectation), then his value is significantly higher. But as you have mentioned several times, the progress seen in 2017 could have been a “burst” that Lindholm does not reproduce over an entire year. So this is much more a risk/reward unless RF can sign him to something like Rask’s numbers, then he should be extended as well.
2) I think the goalie coach happens next because it must happen and it should be more straightforward since it doesn’t involve players. My prediction not on the list is a trade involving Hanifin. I can see a solid forward being added (involving just picks because the team can’t protect him, it looks like Nashville can’t protect both Jarnkrok and Wilson), but a top scorer will ONLY come via trade. The name that seems to generate the most interest is Hanifin. I would say there are only 4-5 players RF will be willing to accept for NH. If one is indeed offered, then the trade happens (my own first choice is Ehlers). I would think the ideal situation would be to add a Wilson/Jankrok/Letestu for a pick/picks then get the top scorer via
trade. This would also require going after at least one D from free agency. But I think one of Quincey/Hunwick/Y. Weber would be available for 3yrs/5M (ok, maybe I have been watching the Nashville series too much). The D would the be Slavin/Pesce, Dhalbeck/Faulk, UFA/Fleury. That may seem like a step back, but you linked to the Scouching blog yesterday and it makes a very strong analytical case that having serviceable blue liners is a winning strategy if the forwards are above-average. Quick back-of-the-envelope math would indicate adding a solid center and a 20-25 goal scorer gets the Canes to 240 goals next year. With addition of Darling and new goalie coach, the subtraction of Hanifin doesn’t increase GA nearly as much. I am not saying Hanifin isn’t worth keeping–I would like to see him become a long-time all-star in Raleigh. I am saying that adding a true top-level scorer will require trading and Hanifin seems the most valuable asset at this time.
Per ctcaniac’s comments, Lindholm’s case is an interesting one. If I had to pick two, I would rate he and Slavin as the two players whose price could jump the most with a big 2017-18 season.
But Francis already moved early once on Lindholm (giving him $2.7M for two years before his ELC expired). It was not catastrophic, but Francis definitely overpaid relative to what the salary would have been coming out of the ELC with a ‘meh’ season. Lindholm’s trajectory looks great coming out of 2016-17, but I think Francis might be inclined to wait it out and take his chances this second time around.
I agree that extending Slavin should be a priority – as has been mentioned before extending Slavin sets a ceiling for Pesce and Hanifin for dollars/term. And we should make it obvious that he is the long-term for the Canes.
Lindholm, of course, suffered what looked like a severe knee injury in the Worlds a couple of days ago – I have only seen the video and have not heard an update. If he is out with something significant that could dictate the nature of his next contract.
Apparently the injury looked worse (I was thinking ACL, even) than it actually is – I just read he is expected to play tonight.
Also, apparently Hanifin has been a star in the first two games of the U.S. – good to see that. He is getting big minutes and major responsibility and appears to be flourishing.
I think a goalie coach is just one of those things that is going to happen when the right coach is available.
I like the idea of extending Slavin first (and then Pesce after the draft/UFA festivities).
As for ctcaniac’s point that there is interest in Hanifin … I have said many times that it’s more likely we add a top-6 forward through a trade (of the Jones for Johansen or Hall for Larssen variety). It would be really tough to lose #5, but I think we’re going to have to part with someone who will be tough to lose. I’m just hoping we’re as excited by what we get back in return.
As far as goalie coach is concerned, the Canes do have Curtis Joseph on the payroll already as a goaltending “consultant.” IIRC, at the time of the hiring, Cujo wasn’t expected to be in Raleigh full time. But now that Marcoux is officially out, I wonder if bringing in Cujo as goaltending coach wasn’t the plan all along. They just needed to wait to make it official. Anyone have thoughts on if Cujo would be good in that role?
You would think Cujo would be great as the goalie coach. I think it comes down to if he would want to do that or not. He was part time in Charlotte. It may not be something he wants full time.
I have almost no ability to evaluate Joseph’s ability as a goalie coach. He has not been in that role at the NHL level and even for those who have it can very much be a chemistry, style, magical black box type thing. Based on resume, I would not say that Marcoux was a bad choice or that he wasn’t qualified, but he just did not yield results.
What I do like about Joseph conceptually is that as a former player at a high level, he theoretically could be better suited to address the mental part of the game. Especially when you are coaching veterans, I think trying to make significant mechanics/style improvements can have as many misses as hits (seemed to contribute to Lack’s stumble out of the gate in Raleigh).
As icecobra mentioned, it’s not clear that Joseph for sure wants a full-time role. He does not need the money, so there is a personal element to whether he wants to move to Raleigh and a M-F job so to speak versus being more of a consultant with a more flexible schedule.
I can’t agree with the trade Hanifin comments. We all have opinions with thought behind them, so do not discard what others say. He was drafted #5 and that was a gift as he could have gone #3 (or even higher). He is really young and has all kinds of upside and is a big part of the future defense. IMO, I would not consider trading him. Just not worth it as you can go out and buy top forwards.
A lot can happen with the expansion draft. T.J. Oshie and Sam Gagner are fairly young high scorer UFAs. We do have Fleury, Carrick and McKeown coming but I would probably consider trading them before Hanifin. I realize you need a big ticket to get a big ticket, but I do not think it is worth it.
For Lindholm, there is always that possibility that the later part of the season was a spike. I would roll the dice and extend him as well just in case he does turn into a mega star.
In a different post, fogger suggested we extend Slavin, Pesce and Hanifin. It keeps the chemistry and makes them all feel important. I agree we should extend all 3 this off season. I would extend all these guys now as they are considered the future and will only get more expensive.
I also think the goalie coach happens next because it must happen. It would be nice if it were Cujo, but not sure if he wants that full time position.
Let me be clear: I would prefer NOT to trade Hanifin. I like our young d-core and want to keep them together. I’m only saying that I think it’s unlikely we’ll win any kind of a bidding war for the elite type of UFA you’re describing (or that we’ll be willing to compete in the deep end of the pool). That’s not to say it can’t happen, just that I don’t view it as likely.
We’ve had the debate elsewhere about whether that’s actually what we need, but we can continue that debate elsewhere.
While I agree about not trading one of our young NHL defensemen for anyone short of Nylander, Sam Gagner is not a viable answer. He hit 50 points this year for the first time in 8 seasons. He is an older Victor Rask. We don’t need an older Victor Rask. Oshie is more of a scorer, but I would not be surprised if the guy convinced a team to pay him $5-$6M a year, which he is not worth, and the Canes shouldn’t play. Also, (according to Wikipedia) his initials stand for Timothy Jimothy….that’s too funny.
As I said on the other article, though, the Hurricanes would do well not to blatantly play favorites in locking these guys up to extensions. Slavin was best this year, no doubts, but Pesce needs to be locked up too, and if you offer Slavin an extension and not Pesce, when he was clearly our #2 defenseman, you might as well just trade him. I’d imagine Hanifin’s agent gets him to wait a year, as his value will jump quite a bit, if he takes a step forward, but if I’m GMRF, I’m trying to extend him now too. We can afford a bit of risk, and waiting for proof beyond all doubt will just cost more $$$. Extend both Pesce and Slavin. Or trade Pesce. Plain and simple.
A lot of great comments. Icecobra, I am where DMiller is at. Matt’s OP asked for predictions. Trading Hanifin is just that–not a preference, just my trying to connect the dots from:
1) Everyone from RF to Matt to other commenters on C&C saying that our top priority now is getting a 1C or at least a high-scoring forward. I think DMiller is exactly correct that neither comes from expansion draft maneuvering. I do think, and I will say I like the possibility of giving up a prospect for Jarnkrok (especially him due to length and cost of current contract) since Nashville will lose him otherwise) but he is neither 1C nor 20-goal scorer.
2) The cost of keeping 4 top defensemen. (I think Pesce will be equal to Slavin next year or the year after–based on him being drafted a year later and he is 1/2 year younger and his offense this year was pretty much Slavin’s last year. Defensively I can’t really separate them.) That is a lot of salary tied up on the blueline.
3) Analytics that Matt has been posting about. At least one such deep analysis shows a team only benefits so much from extra top-defensemen, while an improvement in possession/scoring in the forward ranks is more valuable.
Those three things add up to using one of the young D to get a 25-30+ goal scorer. Hanifin seems to have the most trade value. Thus my prediction. Any or all of this could be wrong, as Dmiller stated some of us (and I include myself) are not sure the top priority should be a high-priced forward when Aho, Teravainen, Lindholm seem to have possible increases in their future and one or two of the prospects might work out as soon as 17-18 and almost for certain in 18-19.
Just wanted to throw out the reasons, which are not my preferences, for the Hanifin prediction.
No problems at all CT. One of the great things about this site is people have different angels and things you did not know and it can make you rethink things. I find myself agreeing with your views very often. On this issue I just see it a different way…. and that is fine.
Fogger pointed out that Sam Gagner hit 50 points this year for the first time in 8 seasons. I did not realize that. It makes me change my opinion. I do agree that Dmiller probably has it right on the UFAs. Anything can happen but we will probably not win or get involved in a bidding war. I would really like Oshie, sometimes I hate reality. :-).
When it comes to Hanifin, or really any of the 4 D, I think it would be a mistake to trade them. We would later regret that. RF built the D first for a reason and these guys are just getting going. I would rather take a pass on a stud forward then trade these guys. Just my opinion. So, this is a joke, I hope your dots do not line up this time. I think we could keep 4 top D if we sign them to extensions early.
The analytics guy with the diminishing returns for good D is just anther guy with an opinion. You could probably find another that would say the opposite.
Your opinion is respected and it makes me think deeper about things, so keep it up. We do not have to agree on everything. At the end of the day I would pass on the stud forward if it means giving up one of our young D. We have many young forwards who can grow and become very strong forwards.
Maybe I’m on a little hype cause the Canes got Darling and I’ve been saying all year (at least to my wife and a few other canes fans) that he was the guy I wanted to go after. So I will continue with my list and let’s see how close I get.
The goalie coach gig I think is Cujo’s if he wants it. If he wants to get back into the NHL with a regular day to day gig I think he is the guy that RF picks. If he doesn’t want it, and wants to stay in the organization as a goalie consultant that’s fine too.
I don’t see either Lack or Ward being picked in the draft, even with a lot of sweetening for the deal. In fact, I would be against that because I think we need to use the sweetening on another deal (for a forward). I will go on the record and say that I want both Lack and Ward out for good. I would prefer a brand new slate for the Canes. That would require a relatively cheap back up option (probably a vet for around $1-1.5M). I also don’t see any team trading straight up for either of Lack/Ward’s contract and cap hit. I would be open to retaining either of them if we can find a team willing to trade for either but not go over ~30-40% retained. I would expect that at least one of them gets bought out… (looking at Lack).
I think a Slavin deal is on the horizon and should be pretty straight forward to get finished. I’m really not too worried about Pesce, Hanifin, Lindholm going crazy next year and then having their price really go up. I think you know what you are going to get from Pesce and if he gives you another solid year like the last 1.5 seasons, I think he can be signed to a bridge deal. Lindholm would have to score at a point per game pace to really, really move the salary needle. When you compare his numbers to his draft class he is still way behind Mac, Barkov, and Monahan. That being said, I don’t see him getting a deal close to the $5.9, $6.3, and $6.375M deals those 3 guys have. Hanifin would need to lead the team on D in points and finish a season closer to +/- of 0 to really really move the needle for a new contract. That being said, he may be the guy who gets the longer term deal vs the bridge contract, but at a lower cap hit. Something around 6 years $4.5-$5.5M per.
Putting my tinfoil hat back on and predicting the future forward deal. I’m going with Tyler Johnson. Tampa will need to trade one of Palat, Drouin, or Johnson. Drouin will be the guy who will demand a longer term deal on his new team vs a bridge deal. It will also be the largest cap hit of the three. There are plenty of Drouin rumors out there, and I think that Stevie Y would like to send him to the Western Conference (most likely in orange county California). If they move Drouin I don’t think they shop either Palat or Johnson. My thought process is that the emergence of Brayden Point as the #2C really pushes Johnson out a bit. Point is still on his ELC for 2 more seasons and Johnson is going to look for a little higher than the $3.33M he was making on his last deal. He’s going to try and get between $4.5-$5.5M on a longer term deal (possibly 4-6 years long). He fits as a top 6 C and is cheaper than Duchene ($6M for 2 more years). The question is, what would it cost the Canes to get him (which Defensman), and would Stevie Y want to even move him to us being in the same Conference?
And I will leave this out here as a wild and crazy idea. The blackhawks are cap crunched. With a 1st round sweep it may be time that they need to move a ‘core’ piece to free up some valuable cap. Please, hear me out here. Toews and Kane aren’t going anywhere…. but… just maybe they try and convince Hossa to waive his clause and move him out. I’m not too particular to the Canes landing a C vs a winger… I guess if I had to pick I may lean towards a C… but I think Hossa on the RW would work very well. He has 4 years left on his deal but each year he is only getting paid $1M a year (it was very front-loaded with salary). The Canes aren’t a cap team so this deal really doesn’t hurt them. But again… IF the hawks ‘blow it up’ a bit, who do they move and what does it cost??… I like Hossa.
I also was wanting Darling for a long time. There never are guarantees, I hope he continues with the great play. We sure needed a real keeper.
This off season is going to be so interesting with the cap issues and the Vegas expansion draft. There are so many crazy things that could open up. Hey, some of these crazy ideas could happen.
Canesjkg…You must be looking at my future blog notes. 🙂
Hossa is one of a few players with interesting cap hit vs. salary differences that could be relevant to the Canes. As you said, Hossa’s cap hit is a steep $5.3M for 4 years at the age of 38. But the interesting part is that his actual salary is only $1M/year. His production and level of play has finally fallen off a little bit, so the big question is whether he is finally hitting the wall age-wise. If that’s the case, the salary stuff becomes irrelevant.
But if you think Hossa has even 2 good years left, the Canes can fit the $5.3M cap hit (not a cap team anyway) and would welcome the $1M in terms of real budget.
Hossa is one of a few players with weird mismatches like this that fit well in the Canes budget that matters for actual salary and less so for salary cap hit.
The one wild card is that if he is traded to Carolina and then retires (definitely possible) Chicago is at risk of being hit with salary cap penalties which defeats the whole purpose from their side. So they might want to keep him close.
jkg. I am a Hossa fan. However, CapFriendly indicates that the Cap Hit for Hossa is still $5.25M per year. So not sure if the front-loading counts average salary of entire contract. At that price since he is signed for 4 more years, I would pass. Still, you may be on to something. Boston is another team that might want to/have to blow things up. I think Backes would be interesting if he waived the NMC and the Bruins would be willing to keep $2M for a few years. Ice cobra said crazy ideas could happen.