As of Monday, The Athletic is down to #10 in counting backwards ranking the NHL’s top farm systems. The Hurricanes figure to finish somewhere in the top 5 and would not be an outlandish pick for #1.
The NHL roster is similarly young.
Though the 2018-19 season is a wild card in many ways including the expected youthful roster, the potential to finish the work that Ron Francis started in terms of building a deep system capable of not just reaching the playoffs but also then becoming a regular entrant is clearly there.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick look at the youthfulness of both the AHL and expected NHL roster for the 2018-19 season.
The Charlotte Checkers roster
With another wave of drafted prospects including Morgan Geekie, Jeremy Helvig and Jake Bean joining the prospect pool, the team was going to be younger already. Then add in free agent signees Michael Fora and Saku Maenalanen and Cliff Pu who was obtained in the Jeff Skinner trade and the organization added seven prospects with an average age of 21 to the AHL mix.
Another way to make a quick and objective split between AHL veterans and prospects at the AHL level is to tally players not on entry-level contracts. Right now, the organization currently has 19 prospects still on entry-level contracts who play at the AHL level. And that does not even include Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas and Haydn Fleury who figure to play at the NHL level.
I do not have time to do an official tally right now, but the percentage of the AHL roster filled by players on entry-level contracts figures to be a recent high, and the average age of the Checkers should decrease for the 2018-19 season.
The Carolina Hurricanes roster
The same story is true at the NHL level. My best guess for the NHL roster right now would include Sebastian Aho, Haydn Fleury, Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, and possibly Warren Foegele on the opening day roster and still on their entry-level contracts. That would make five players on entry-level contracts on the opening day roster.
But a broader look at the roster even more shows just how young the team could be. By age group, a potential roster breaks out like this:
18-22 years old (5): Sebastian Aho, Haydn Fleury, Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele.
23-26 years old (12): Teuvo Teravainen, Brock McGinn, Micheal Ferland, Jordan Martinook, Victor Rask, Phil Di Giuseppe, Valentin Zykov, Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk, Petr Mrazek.
27-30 years old (4): Jordan Staal, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Calvin de Haan, Scott Darling.
Over 30 (1): Justin Williams.
Regardless of who exactly makes the opening day roster, the Hurricanes will be incredibly young at the NHL level. Even the veterans are primarily in their mid-20s, and the group could very well have as many players 24 and younger as it does 25 and older.
Both sides of the coin
The positive with the team and the organization being so young is that the window for potential success (playoffs!) is just beginning to open and will remain open for some time once the team arrives.
But the negative is that the 2018-19 projected roster looks like a team that is rebuilding, on the brink of emerging but with no short-term guarantees. When fans start leaning optimistically about rookies, they often mistake “could be ready to play at the NHL level but still with a learning curve” versus “are actually ready to play again players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Alexander Ovechkin, Claude Giroux and others and drive wins.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Honest answer…What do you put the odds at that the young Hurricanes group is ready to take the league by storm in 2018-19 versus having a product season learning curve-wise on the path to a brighter future that starts in 2019-20 or later?
2) Who has a guess for where the Hurricanes prospect pool lands in The Athletic rankings?
Go Canes!
1 The POSSIBILITY of a playoff run is there. The Probability is much better next year. The results this year are going ti rely on two veterans: the goaltenders.
2 I would guess somewhere around four or five. This is Carolina, after all. Not a lot of residual respect.
1) the canes will most likely be a bubble team this year. Many, many things will contribute to whether we are above the line or just below the line.
Two elements that haven’t gotten much air time are systems and deadline strategy. If RBA let’s them play – Vegas style – and systematically gets the defense more involved in scoring, look out.
Also, are abundance of youth positions us for deadline trades. If the top priority is making the playoffs this year, we can do it. If our tiptop priority is being a perennial contender, we may stand pat at the deadline.
2) the most likely ranking is 3rd best, because that is about where we come out in other rankings and the authors look at each other’s work. It doesn’t mean we are third best. We should have at least two in the top ten (Necasnikov) with other newcomers Fox, Bean, Geekie, and others complementing our strong AHL cast from last year.
The possibility of a playoff run is a good one despite the youth. It is more dependent on the 27 year old group than the 21 and under.
The farm should second if not first. The farm was 3rd or 4th last season and our biggest knock was a lack of star power. We’ve added two stars to the group. Necas went way up the prospect rankings this season and Svechnikov being the first forward off the board. Had Kuokkanen had a strong tournament as Finland’s number 1 center, I’d be confident that we’d be number 1.
All the earlier comments ring true.
1) This year it COULD happen. Next year the Canes should begin a stretch of true contention.
I would put the odds this year of 1/3.
I think the Canes have some similarities to Winnipeg from 2 seasons ago when Laine was a rookie. The Jets didn’t make the playoffs in 16-17. In 17-18 the team improved as the year progressed and were a serious Cup contender. They are one of the favorites this year. I think the next three years have a similar trajectory in Raleigh.
2) Second. Dahlin and Middlestadt are the only pair comparable to Svechnikov/Necas. Dahlin gives the Sabres the edge. Though Carolina probably should be 1st based on the depth–as SvechNech1 pointed out a few days ago the Canes have 14 prospects on at least one “Best Prospects” list.
It’s a coin-flip and could go either way. With so many younger players, many will likely continue to grow and a few will regress/go sideways – the net-net is team growth. I think it comes down to goaltending and staying healthy.
1. With the subtraction of Ward the average age is lower this season than previous season, nevermind the additions of the teenagers. But, with the exception of the teenagers, there is a very tight grouping in age – we don’t have a big split between older and younger players with a few in-between. I think that is a plus for team camaderie.
Playoffs this year? – yes. We were a playoff contender two seasons ago – but for an inexplicable 6-week stretch of godawful hockey before the trade deadline we would have been in the playoffs. Last season much of the team seemed to just shrug and give up – very disappointing.
We have more talent on this squad than we have had in a long time and I think it is the type of team that will gel and play well together.
2. We are officially in the upper 8 for farm systems as of this morning – I do wonder. We are weak on NHL-potential depth in Charlotte so the ratings must really be emphasizing our forwards (who are good) and our goalies.
The one qualifier I have on playoff-bound – it is can RBA be a head coach from the bench or will his inexperience show up in game management.
The Canes are asking a lot of their young forwards, especially the rookies. Necas and Svechnikov may explode, but you cant expect or count on that. I have confidence they will become excellent NHL players, but they may need a year or two. Throw in the questions in net and it’s hard to count on the Canes to make the playoffs.
Outside of Staal and Williams there is little playoff experience on the team. Why did the team quit last year? Was it that they didn’t know how to do it, or did they just hate Bill Peters that much? The Canes could really use a top veteran forward. Not the Krugers, Martinooks, etc. A top six forward.
I would rather see less of guys like Martinook, DiGuiseppe,etc. We know what kind of players they are. Fourth liners. I would rather see a guy like Warren Foegele get NHL minutes that either of those two.
I see the farm system with solid depth, but I’m not nearly as excited about any potential stars coming out of Charlotte outside of Necas and Svechnikov. The rest have a lot to prove, IMO.
Cautious optimism is understandable given the recent performance of 1st round picks (Lindholm, Hanifin, Fleury) and the fact that neither of the 2016 first rounders is likely to be on the roster this season.
However, I think there is reason for more optimism when considering the success of “similar” players. Svechnikov is the best scorer the Canes have drafted since Skinner. I think we would all take 31/32/63 rookie production from Svech. Necas was a slight European when drafted. He then spent his first post-draft season playing with men in his home country. That defines Aho. Again, I would be thrilled with Aho’s 24 goals and 25 assists from Necas in 18-19.
More realistically, if Svech scores 25 and Necas gets 12, the Canes will be in good shape. There will be additional scoring provided by whomever replaces Kruger/Nordstrom/Jooris. The D could increase goals by 10 or so with the addition of Hamilton.
I still prefer adding a 20-goal LW. Even without that addition, the offense should be more productive. The defense should be less error-prone. The goalies should be some form of quantum mechanics.
1. 20% …for two large reasons – 1. GKs enough said
2. Center – little scoring, Aho (if not a wing)…then WHO?
…probably Staal, Rask, Wallmark -?? I don’t have a clue, but not anybody who is a scoring threat, IMO!
Goalkeeping seems like the obvious weakness, but is it really likely that two goalies who performed well for a period of years would both lose their skills forever? Mrazek was very good from 2010-11 in the OHL through 2015-16 with Red Wings. He was good in the OHL, ECHL, in the AHL with two teams and then in the NHL. Based on his long stretch of high performance, I think it’s a reasonable bet that Mrazek will bounce back.
You can make the same argument for Darling but it’s not nearly as strong. He was good in 2013-14 in the AHL and then for two years with the Blackhawks. He had a lot of bad years before he turned things around in 2013. But three straight years of good performance in the AHL and NHL still may be more representative of his ability than last year playing behind a defense that despite its reputation had a lot of lapses in front of Darling.
Necas is likely in the mix, but planning on a rookie for big scoring is wishful thinking, eh?
I hope I’m wrong, but I think chances are very slim that the Canes make the playoffs this year. The time has come in my opinion to go all-in with rebuilding, developing as much talent as possible at the NHL level this year. I think a deal to patch up the NHL roster this year at the expense of some of the Canes’ better prospects would probably not pay off with a spot in the playoffs.
Treating 2018-19 as a developmental year in the NHL for several top prospects will make for an exciting team this year with a remote chance at the playoffs and a good team in 2019-20 with an excellent chance at the playoffs. I don’t think the Canes’ should give up a lot for one year of Max Pacioretty and I don’t think the Oilers or Leafs or Blackhawks are going to trade the Canes a player like Nugent-Hopkins or Nylander or Saad for Justin Faulk. I think the Canes would have to sweeten the deal with a bundle of prospects who would ease cap problems for the other teams and in the long term the Canes would be worse off.
I would guess the Canes prospect pool will rank 3rd or 4th this year in Pronman’s universe. Necas has been rising up the rankings but will probably drop at least a couple of spots because of 2018 draftees Svechnikov and Dahlin. Also, the two Canes 2016 first-rounders, Bean and Gauthier, seem to be losing favor (prematurely, in my opinion) in the eyes of most observers. There will probably be a big drop in the rankings from Necas to Fox and a very big drop from Fox to whoever ranks next. On the other hand, the Canes do have unusual depth in prospects in the 50-100 range. As for the top 10 Canes’ players or prospects 23 or under, Svechnikov, Aho and Necas will look very strong but not as strong as the young talent in Toronto and some other places.
The wildcard is Necas. If he really comes into camp at 6′ 2″ and 195 lbs, and he’s improved even more over his performance in the world championships and the second half of the Czech pro season, then look out. That could fix a lot of problems all at once. I’m praying that Necas’ growth spurt and his hard work make him end up the best player in his draft year, ahead of Patrick, Hischier and Mittelstadt and far ahead of the 6′ 1″ 168-lb Martin Necas who is still listed on most websites.
Also, Svechnikov has to be as advertised – the player people are comparing to Laine and Malkin and Hossa.
It’s a lot to ask of both Necas and Svechnikov to be what the Canes need them to be early enough in the season to make the playoffs this year. However, it doesn’t seem impossible. And if they thrive early, it will be very exciting to watch.
It is a lot to ask of rookies.
Yet the top two picks from last year’s draft took teams that missed the playoffs the prior season into the playoffs in their first season. Both were only part of the reason. So here is my opinion on the Canes duplicating the success of Hischier’s Devils and Patrick’s Flyers.
Devils–
Two key rookies: Check–the Canes have Svech and Necas.
Unexpected goalie: Check–I like your post about Mrazek. He could surprise.
Career year from star: Check maybe–Aho could reasonably get to ppg.
Flyers–
One rookie having fair season: Check–Svechnikov should match Patrick’s 13g/17a.
D scoring more: Check–with Hamilton the D looks to add goals.
Veterans among league leaders in scoring: No. Staal and Williams don’t have Giroux and Voracek’s scoring potential.
Underperforming center breaking out: No. I thought Lindholm had a shot at having a season like Couturier. Management thought differently.
So the odds seem 50/50. The Canes might look like last year’s Devils. They won’t look like last year’s Flyers.
As I said earlier, I think the odds are more like 1/3. But last year I had them at 2/3. So what do I know. Though I stand by my statement that the Canes should be the favorites for the prospects championship.
I like the Devils comparison. It wasn’t just Hall and Hischier – they gave Jesper Bratt, a 2016 6th round pick, a chance. He came out hot and ended the year with 13 goals and 35 points. Let a couple of the Checkers have a shot at doing the same.
The Canes look better on D than the Devils and surprisingly, the Devils don’t look that much better in goal. Cory Schneider had a bad year with a .907 save rate and Kinkaid wasn’t much better. They scored more goals than the Canes: 243-225. They gave up 240 and the Canes gave up 253. So the Canes were worse both ways but an inferior offense was the biggest factor despite the Canes’ problems in goal. Time to find out if the kids can score.
The Devils and Flyers both had bonified NHL superstars that helped drive the teams’ success.
The Canes do not have a NHL experienced guy with the resume of Taylor Hall or Claud.
Jordan Staal is a solid guy who commends a lot of respect, and he is a great defensive forward, but he is not a super elite scoring forward player with NHL experience.
I was looking at the Hockeybuzz list of top 5 centers and wingers under 23, not a single Canes player on the list.
I am guessing they will rank third or fourth in the prospect pool listing. A big flock of decent prospects but, outside of Necas and Andrei, short on high end prospects.
I disagree, I think if the Canes can trade away Faulk with one or two of the prospects for a high end guy like Nylander, they need to do it. Every team needs a couple of the difference maker players, not just good but potentially great.
sThe Canes are likely to have one or two of those but I think they are one starplayer short.
I agree the Canes should find out the asking price for Nylander and other high-end young players who are farther along than the Canes’ prospects. I just think the price for any of those players will be prohibitive.
The Leafs don’t seem to want Faulk and his salary, probably because they can score goals without him and the last couple of years show Faulk won’t help their defense. He would hurt their salary cap. Bean or rights to Fox wouldn’t help Toronto’s D for years. McKeown is no sure thing. The Leafs need help on D but I doubt they consider Faulk the answer. The Leafs don’t need help scoring goals- they tied for 3rd in the NHL. Which Canes’ prospects might offset the loss of Nylander and his 61 points for the Leafs and help their cap situation? Necas and Svechnikov seem like the only possibilities from a Leafs’ perspective.
I certainly don’t think the Canes should give up good prospects to get a good vet forward for a year. I don’t think vets like Pacioretty are looking to play for a Canes team that doesn’t figure to go far in the playoffs so they’d just be playing out their contracts. Perhaps Dundon and crew can work some magic. I doubt it, but the current regime surprised us with the Calgary trade. Maybe they’ll surprise us again.