On Saturday morning, the Carolina Hurricanes announced that the team had come to terms with Brock McGinn on a two-year contract that averages $2.1 million per year ($1.9 million in 2019-20 and $2.3 million in 2020-21). The deal narrowly averted an arbitration hearing scheduled for the same day that probably freed up time for sightseeing for Canes execs who were already in Toronto for the hearing.
My initial thoughts on re-signing Brock McGinn are HERE.
Saturday’s transaction checks off another box and leaves only one big situation to be resolved and a few smaller ones. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe addresses all of them.
The article has some overlap with last week’s article that similarly considered unfinished work but comes at it more on a player by player basis.
Justin Williams
A first glance at CapFriendly might suggest that the Justin Williams ship has sailed because it shows only $2.5 million of salary remaining which would be a sizable pay cut from the $4.5 million he earned in 2018-19. But deeper inspection suggests that the Hurricanes would actually have $3.9 million if one moves Clark Bishop and Brian Gibbons down to the AHL. And that is exactly what I think would happen if the Hurricanes signed Williams. Williams would give the team 13 forwards at the NHL level, and Bishop and Gibbons sitting at the NHL level on CapFriendly is not indicative of the team’s likely intentions.
So $3.9 million would be a decrease but not a sizable one. A related question is if the Hurricanes would put themselves in a tough spot if they spend exactly the to cap. This can be onerous because it makes it difficult to carry an extra player if someone is hurt short-term and could even create problems if an inexpensive player like Wallmark is injured and the desired call up earns even just $150,000 more on his NHL contract. But this is easily solvable if Williams would be willing to take a portion of his contract as a bonus. The team could set up an easily achievable bonus of say 20 games played and make maybe $1-2 million depending on this bonus milestone. What that does is make it possible for the Hurricanes to defer the bonus amount to the 2020-21 season. With Marleau’s contract coming off the books, the team would not be pinched too badly if that came to fruition, but more likely the Hurricanes would gain a bit more wiggle room as the season wore on with an injury or two.
So in the end, I think the situation with Justin Williams is roughly where it started the summer. The team will welcome him back, so it is really for him to decide if he wants to go out on a good note from 2018-19 or take another shot at an even better one.
My belief is that the value of one more year of Williams’ leadership is underappreciated as the Hurricanes try to transition to being a team that must now play with the extra weight of expectations.
My hunch: Without any insight into Williams’ family and personal considerations, I think the hockey side is slanted toward a return. The team has done what it can to boost prospects for the 2019-20 season such that Williams’ chances of bettering a strong 2018-19 finale as as high as possible. As long as family does not overrule, I think he returns.
Restricted free agents on the NHL/AHL fringe
Past the big outcome for Justin Williams, the Hurricanes do still have a handful of other contract situations that will in part determine how deep the team is at the AHL/NHL fringe.
Saku Maenalanen
At the top of the list is Saku Maenalanen. Maenalanen was what I call a veteran rookie. He played his way up in Finland and then caught NHL scouts’ attention with his strong play in world competition. Physically, he had an NHL skill set with a bigger frame and as a capable skater. He had a bumpy transition to North America after not making the Hurricanes roster out of training camp and then shortly thereafter getting a kick in the pants at the AHL level as a healthy scratch with questions about his effort and commitment level. But he rebounded and ultimately found his way into an NHL audition in the second half of the season. As originally hoped, he proved capable of matching NHL pace and playing a decent two-way game. But he was also limited offensively with only four goals and eight points in 34 regular season games. Maenalanen then raised his stock a bit by again proving capable under the bright lights and with the physical intensity of the playoffs. The highlight of Maenalanen’s season for me was him being the player in Ovechkin’s face when he exploded at the end of game 6 in Raleigh. While the veteran Ovechkin blew up, Maenalanen calmly couple-skated backward in front of him just watching calmly without being fazed in the slightest. But similar to the regular season, his playoffs were again a story about being capable or serviceable not necessarily productive as Maenalanen logged no goals and only a single assist in nine playoff games.
On a team that was not very deep at forward, Maenalanen would easily slot as a bottom half of the roster checking line forward. But on a Hurricanes team that is suddenly very deep at forward, my current depth chart has him as the #14 forward if Williams returns.
Maenalanen is coming off a one-year contract that paid him $925,000 at the NHL level. He was eligible for arbitration but did not file. Arbitration would almost certainly have yielded a two-way contract to match his 2018-19 split between the AHL and NHL. As such, Maenalanen’s greatest leverage in terms of trying to get a better deal or possibly a one-way contract is threatening to return to Finland. The question is whether Maenalanen would truly want to return to Finland if not sure of an NHL spot or if he would be willing to battle for NHL ice time like he did in 2018-19. The answer to that question will determine if the the Hurricanes are able to retain a very good depth forward who comes with the flexibility of not needing to clear waivers to return to the AHL.
From the Hurricanes standpoint, Maenalanen would be a great player to keep if the team can do so on a two-contract such that he at least initially probably slots at #13-#15 and probably at the AHL level if the team is healthy at forward on opening night. I think the sweetener that the team could offer would be a high guarantee of $300,000 to $350,000. That would boost Maenalanen’s pay even if he does log more time at the AHL level, and the risk to the Hurricanes would be modest as Maenalanen would figure to see at least some NHL ice time as injuries make room over the course of the season.
My hunch: It is really hard to say with Maenalanen. On the one hand, I do not think the team will offer a one-way contract nor will he be assured an NHL slot to start the season. He and his agent are smart enough to realize that his path to the NHL for the 2019-20 season will require he win a roster battle and possibly even benefit from an injury or two to crack the NHL lineup. My wild guess is that the lure of the NHL (which is why he signed with the Canes to begin with) will be enough for Maenalanen to begrudgingly take a two-way contract and begin battling for NHL ice time.
Anton Forsberg
Goalie Anton Forsberg was obtained in the deal the sent Calvin de Haan to the Chicago Blackhawks. As a player who likely slots fourth on the Hurricanes depth chart, one might figure that the odds are low that Forsberg is a factor at the NHL level for the 2019-20 season. But the goalie position can be strange that way. Jordan Binnington started the 2018-19 season as deep depth and improbably played a huge role in winning the Stanley Cup for the Blues. Especially with James Reimer coming off a tough 2018-19 season and Alex Nedeljkovic being unproven at the NHL level, Forsberg is exactly the type of NHL-experienced depth the Hurricanes would want in his slot. There are two questions related to that. First is cost. Forsberg is coming off a one-way contract but did play the 2018-19 season at the AHL which would suggest that his arbitration hearing, if reached, will yield a two-way contract. The second question is whether he will clear waivers to reach a slot in the AHL. As a goalie who has yet to be more than depth at the NHL level, I would not expect issues with waivers unless there are a number of goalie injuries in preseason.
My hunch: Playing only at the AHL level in 2018-19 should set Forsberg up for a favorable two-way contract and a trip through waivers to the AHL where he represents a very good #4 option on the goalie depth chart.
Roland McKeown
As a restricted free agent without arbitration rights or much NHL experience, McKeown’s contract situation should be pretty straight forward. He should get a two-way deal probably with a modest raise for the AHL portion. What is more complicated is figuring where he will land to start the season. McKeown must clear waivers to go to the AHL which means there is a decent chance that he would be claimed by a lesser team who gets him for free to give him an NHL audition. Because of this risk, I continue to think that the Hurricanes will need to trade one of Haydn Fleury, Gustav Forsling or Roland McKeown at some point. If Trevor van Riemsdyk opens the season on the injury list that could allow time to keep all three and use 2019-20 NHL play to determine who stays and who goes. McKeown has a few positives going for him. First, he is the only right shot of the three listed and also including Jake Bean who also figures to see NHL ice time in 2019-20. Second, McKeown has shown a knack for dialing up his game and playing his best hockey in NHL action (including preseason). He actually came from way down the depth chart to win the last NHL blue line spot for the 2017-18 season before the team decided instead to add more experienced options via the waiver wire. Finally, because he has yet to see much NHL action, he is arguably the player with the most upside and therefore risky to trade before seeing what he can do with an extended run at the NHL level.
My hunch: If van Riemsdyk is unable to start the season, my hunch is that the Hurricanes give McKeown at least some of the ice time on the right side of the third pairing to see what he can do. How that goes likely determines whether he or another of the depth options is traded.
Trevor Carrick
Carrick has established himself as a very good AHL defenseman but while doing so has repeatedly seen players leap frog him on the way to the NHL. The 2019-20 version of that projects to be Jake Bean and/or Roland McKeown. Fair or unfair, the Hurricanes have not shown a propensity to give Carrick a shot at the NHL level. I would put him 10th on the Hurricanes defense depth chart right now. As a restricted free agent, Carrick does not have leverage to do much about this. Best he can do is have a strong 2019-20 season and then possibly flee to greener pastures like Patrick Brown and Andrew Poturalski did this summer.
My hunch: Carrick seems to have little choice but to re-sign and put up another strong season in Charlotte to position himself for an opportunity elsewhere.
What say you Canes fans?
1) It is another slow hockey day in July. Who has a newest round of thoughts on Justin Williams given Brock McGinn’s re-signing and the current financial situation?
2) Without knowing his personal preference and situation, what is your guess for whether Saku Maenalanen returns?
3) Do you see the Hurricanes proactively making a trade to break the logjam at the edge of the NHL and AHL on the blue line? Or will the team risk getting a player through waivers to the AHL?
Go Canes!
The dog days of summer indeed.
What is the deal with Marleau’s cap space? On a buyout, 2/3 of the salary is supposed to be spread over twice the duration. It appears that 100% of Marleau’s cap is current year. Any insight as to why?
This may impact the Justin Williams situation.
He was on an 35-plus contract and they can’t be bought out with Cap savings. See the CapFriendly Buyout FAQ for more details: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-faq
Thanks dmilleravid. I see 35+ is salary savings but not cap relief. Interesting!
The other big wild-card is what happens with James Reimer: if he is traded for futures, say, or for a player on an ELC then we open up a comfortable amount of cap space that eases things a bit. I still think this is probably the most likely end-game for Reimer but, obviously, GMDW has proven to be unpredictable.
The longer that time passes, the less likely I think it is that Justin Williams returns. The team (and almost all of us) would love to have him back, but the prudent thing to do is to plan on a future without him. I think we are for the most part.
We are not going to lose Fleury off of waivers; and I highly doubt that we’d want to lose McKeown that way either. The team seems to have slotted Carrick’s ceiling as a top-pairing AHL guy so he’s the least valuable except to the extent that he helps the Checkers maintain a winning culture. I still think there is more tinkering coming. Maybe not now, maybe during camp.
I’d like to see Saku stay and play his way onto the team. We could use another guy who’s not intimidated by the physical and emotional moments even at the expense of a little offensive production. That’s worth a roster spot to me if it doesn’t get in the way of another player earning the spot in Camp (ala Foegele last year).
We’re a really deep team this year. And as balanced as I can remember. The big question: are we going to be the Oct-Dec team or the Fan-May team from last season?
The problem with a Reimer move is two-fold:
1. His contract is expensive for the back up that he now is.
2. There are few if any teams that are in search of a back up goaltender.
I agree that this was the move that the front office had in mind when they traded for James. However, to move him now almost certainly requires a sweetener and/or some salary retention. I’m not sure which one I would do and I’m not so sure that we wouldn’t want him as our #2 anyway. He’s got a career .914 save%.
I’m hoping we can work something out w/Saku…more on that later.
1. I like your thoughts on the cap impact of signing JW to near $3.9M. Is that a position we really want to be in? I would be surprised if the answer was yes. And how much do we want to retain him – would we be willing to trade an asset with some salary in order to sign JW while maintaining cap flexibility? The obvious choice would be Reimer – but I am not sure he is the most likely choice. And if it is another cap move, is it going to require a sweetener? The question becomes what cost is too high to sign JW?
2. I don’t think I have ever seen more words written about Saku in a single column in any other location! 😀
Saku made it known last season (early December) that if he didn’t see NHL ice time he would be heading to the KHL. I think some of that had to be money – he could make a lot more in the KHL than the AHL, so the notion of starting in the AHL may be easier if we offer him a higher guarantee. But after making the equivalent of $700,000 (+/-) for the last 4 months of the season he is not going to be happy back at $80,000 with CLT. That is just speculation, though.
3. I expect a blueline depth trade. The big issue is that we don’t have a RHD in reserve other than McKeown. And because he is no longer waiver-exempt he either plays, sits in the press box, or gets waived (and possibly lost – I expect teams will take a chance on a high-end AHL RHD).
I also expect you are right about Carrick. We are too deep on the left for him to have a realistic chance of getting NHL ice time yet again. He is such a great guy and plays with heart and soul, it is a shame that opportunities don’t look good for him.
I really don’t see Reimer in a Canes sweater. I think he will be traded for a pick or a prospect. I don’t see Willy coming back for less than $5 million. Those who say he has slowed down because of age haven’t been paying attention. Once we lost Ferland to injury, the goons moved in on Willy and the Seabass. Remember the stupid penalties Willy took against the Bruins in the playoffs? Marchand was inflicting pain and humiliation on the sly, as only he can.
With a healthy replacement for Ferland (like maybe Max Domi) Willy will be worth every nickel of $5 million for one or two years.
As Wayne Gretsky said, “Good players know where the puck is. Great players know where it will be.” Gretsky wasn’t especially fast. Willy is, of course, not Gretsky. But he is a great player.
Who’d a thunk that we would be kissing the cap ceiling?
Matt says that Trevor Carrick might rate number 10 on our d depth chart. Someone else says Carrick won’t see NHL ice this season given our depth on the left side.
Depth on the left side? We have Slavin. We have Pesce playing on his off side. Not because he prefers it. Because he is needed there. We had TVR playing on his off side for the same reason. Forsling is an unknown commodity. Fleury? When you speak of depth, you can’t be thinking of our Haydn. Surely you jest!
In a post I put in a while ago, I posed the question, what does our Haydn do well? I ask again.
What does he do well?
Does he score? No. Does he reliably clear the d-zone with timely and accurate passes to his teammates? No. Does he keep the slot and the crease clear of enemy players? No. Does he win battles behind our net as well as along the boards? No. Does he hit enemy players and block shots? No. Does he fight? No way.
Was he good at anything in Juniors that made him worthy of being slected number7 in the amateur draft ahead of several prospects who have gone on to become NHL stars?
Please tell me. There must be something. But for all I can tell, our Haydn’s hockey skills are as mythical as is our depth on the blue line.
LHD Depth:
Slavin
Fleury
Bean
Forsling
Sellgren
Lintuniemi
Carrick
We’ll have to agree to disagree about Fleury. He’s a very good skater. Isn’t afraid to play the body. Has a good first pass. And as the season wore on, especially in the Calder Cup run, he became a headier player. He’s ready for full time duties and I think the team reinforced that belief with the one-way deal.
Can Trevor Carrick score goals? Yes. Does he rack up assists? You betcha! Is he mean and nasty to enemy players who venture into the slot and crease? Yes he is. Does he have a great shot from the point on the power play? Yes he does. Does he win battles behind his net as well as along the boards? Yes. Does he fight? Yes.
A couple of you have mentioned his shortcomings. (Not a great skater and takes unnecessary penalties). I have yet to confirm this on my own. But he still looks good to me.
With no replacement in sight for Ferland, and a gritless and shallow defense, we will be taking a major step backward to the days of the hapless Candy Canes. The little Finns, Svech, little Jakie Bean, and little Marty Necas will be just so many lambs being led to the slaughter.
It will be ugly. Very ugly.
C’mon Donny and Tommy. Don’t let it happen!
Carrick is a great AHLer, but we all know the speed in that league is not the same in the NHL. His speed is probably a hair short of what it needs to be at the NHL level, and that’s likely why the team views his ceiling where it is.
And while he fights, his heart can outdo his mind. I was in Providence for game 2 of the 1st round and I believe Carrick was called for instigating or 3rd man in, whatever it was, at the end of a game 2 loss. That cost him a few games suspension at the wrong time (at that time, series was tied 1-1).
Getting a suspension is probably a positive is pwrlss’s book! Gotta crack a few eggs to make an omelet.
The canes are a small team. The Craps are getting nastier – replaced Connelly and Burakovsky with tougher players.
I’m still of the mind that Justin Williams returns. By the time he does, or shortly thereafter, an appropriate move to free up salary will be made. Sara Civian (Canes writer for The Athletic) still feels there’s some likelihood that McGinn gets moved. I’ve said that perhaps there’s a team that would value McGinn enough to make him a sweetener in a Reimer deal. If we retained $1 million, then the asset coming back might not be paltry.
In the end, I could see Justin signing a bonus filled contract with easy milestones (10 games played, 5 goals scored, etc.), enough to get him to his current compensation or a little above. I’d also add some sweeteners for reaching the ECF and/or the Cup finals.
I really like Maenalanen and hope that we don’t lose him. I agree with Matt that we could structure a two-way contract that had a higher guarantee at the AHL level. I’d also consider offering him something similar to what we did with Wallmark where he gets a two-way deal in year 1 and a one-way deal in year 2. It would give him something to play for and while we retained a valuable asset.
Given what we know about the front office, it is hard to believe that they would lose a player for nothing to the waiver wire…even if they believed that player didn’t have much of a future with the franchise. I think Matt rightly identifies the McKeown situation…we’re holding on to him as our TVR replacement should he not be ready for the start of the season. This has the two-fold benefit of having a solid RHD on the 3rd pairing while also showcasing him for a future deal. In the end, I’m almost certain we’d go the trade route with McKeown before losing him on the waiver wire.
Despite having a plethora of RHDs at the NHL level, the system has exactly 3 remaining. Luke Martin, who many thought highly of, seems to have stalled in his development at Michigan. Anttoni Honka is a boom or bust pick from this year’s draft. And the previously mentioned McKeown. If the Chase Priskie rumors hold true, that would go a long way to helping us out. He was a point per game rear guard at Quinnipiac. We do have the recently signed Alex Lintuniemi who is a left-handed RD.
Lastly, I cannot imagine that we don’t move one of Forsling or Fleury with my preference being the former. He’s another guy that almost certainly gets snagged off the waiver wire. Moving him, solves the McKeown problem too (he would then be our #7). So in the end, I’m also of the mind that more moves are coming and, unfortunately, one or more fan favorite is likely to be involved.
I am so glad that we fans don’t have any sway over the decisions made by management regarding players. I just saw a fan generated depth chart that has Carrick at the bottom of a seven player list of our left handed defensemen.
All of these positions we fans take regarding the players mean nothing when Donny and Tommy pull the trigger on a trade. They become meaningless when a player we think is superior to others loses out to his inferior (in our eyes) competition in camp.
That’s one of the many reasons I love this game. One of the many reasons I love this team.
Should our Haydn show in camp and during the season that he isn’t afraid to take the body (fans who sit around me at games are fond of shouting, “Hit him with your purse, Haydn!”) and that he can pass (things he has yet to show me) I will be the first to admit I was wrong. Should Carrick prove himself to be the dud others say he is, I will admit that I am wrong. I have strong doubts whether Haydn’s champions on this site as well as Carrick’s detractors will do the same should things pan out to prove them wrong.
I would be delighted to be wrong here too.
Donnie isn’t done yet. I think there are reasonably 2-3 more moves prior to camp, mostly minor deals with one being modest in scope that will impact our starting lineup. We’ll be asking these questions for maybe the next 45 days. Dog days of August awaits.
The team could make a deal or two to clear the logjam, but I would be surprised to see McGinn go. If someone like Maenalanen has value to another team, I could see him going.
To me, trading McGinn seems to get too focused on the depth chart and ignore the path to today and how the team operates.
First, despite not technically being in a role responsible for personnel moves, I think Brind’Amour has has much pull as anyone on the committee this time of year. Brind’Amour was Dundon’s first, aggressive hire and the person he trusted/leaned on first. That position inside the organization would only have been strengthened by the 2018-19 results in Brind’Amour’s rookie year as a coach.
Second and in the same vein, Brock McGinn as much as any other player on the roster is a Brind’Amour type of player. Brind’Amour’s mantra from day one was to outwork other teams. There were some bumps along the way, but that transition was integral to the team’s success. And McGinn is very clearly one of the drivers of that.
Finally, Brind’Amour stated early in the off-season that his hope was to keep the team together. Parting ways with a player like McGinn at this point in the summer because someone might be able to do similar for what, $1 million less, makes sense in calculator mode looking at the depth chart but not when considering the context of the decision-makers and the path to get here.
Since I do believe that the Hurricanes could have another ‘pruning’ type trade or two yet to come this summer, I guess I set myself up to eat crow. But I would be surprised to see McGinn traded at this late stage of the summer.
Don’t think McGinn is part of any deal, he’s a keeper. The remaining deals could surround some players that may be considered as available in the next year or two (TVR, Wallmark, etc.). If so, we may be able to keep all the young D stock we have in place, and sign Saku. Nothing blockbuster of course, but I’d guess 1-2 minor swaps and another with impact to the starting roster. Happy guessing at this point!
Matt – I think the concept of “committee” is now overplayed; that may well have been in effect a year ago in the changeover in ownership but everything I have heard in the past 6 months is that Waddell is fully and firmly in the driver’s seat. And if you want an indicator that the “committee” is a word only, the departure of Vellucci should be placed in evidence. He was an AGM in name only and I think that was a driving force for his departure from the organization.
That said, I don’t think Waddell would move a player that RBA wants to keep – short of getting a return that makes RBA smile.
And if you go back to that interview in which he said he wants to “keep the team together”, almost within the same breath he said he got as much out of that team as he could and that the team needs “to get better”. Waddell concurred in that same interview with that sentiment.
And that said, at $2M McGinn might be priced out of a move. He is certainly not a sweetener to move Reimer, in my opinion. His upside appears limited and his price tag is on the high side (he is being paid more than Martinook?? – is there a bend in reality here?).
The only more Brind’Amour-esque player is Warren Foegele
Everyone has expressed many different scenarios regarding player moves, trades, etc. My crystal ball has been on the fritz for quite awhile so I will spare all of you my shots in the dark for now. My only add to the above is in regards to four players.
1. Reimer: I would think right now he stays. He has had a couple of good years when not playing on miserable defensive teams and just might be a diamond in the rough behind our defense if our defense is as good as last year.
2. Fleury, Carrick, et. al.: I watched Fleury in the AHL playoffs and of course last year in the NHL. He can skate and he can play very good defense IMO. The problem I saw at both levels involved keeping his head in the game and playing full tilt on every shift. I only saw Carrick in the AHL playoffs. Prior to that I had a good impression of him and was a supporter based upon his toughness and his reputed shot from the point. Having seen him this year in the playoffs, I thought he was slow, used poor judgment in taking too many penalties, and seemed to concentrate more on hunting down players to hit than really play good sound, tough defense. I hope I am wrong about him, but those were the impressions I got from that small sample of playoff games. McKeown appeared to me to be a strictly defensive defenseman with no offensive upside. He looked solid on defense and I see him as a DeHaan type defenseman with the exception of I have no idea if he blocks shots at DeHaan’s level.
Regarding whether I am right or wrong. I always hope Canes players and prospects are good and take the optimistic approach to evaluating them. So my tendency is to overrate them. I hate to see any player’s reputation be run into the gutter or besmirched and don’t like to focus on their negatives. My approach for tis year is to forget trying to evaluate each player’s individual strengths and weaknesses because I am not expert enough to do so. My focus will be on are they contributing to the team’s winning games IMO or are they costing us games. All players make mistakes during games and generally no one mistake is responsible for a loss. A pattern of mistakes by any player that CONTRIBUTES to a team losing or having to overcome them in order to win games is all I am concerned with.
If you disagree with my views in regards to any player, rest assured that you will not be alone. My wife is my worst critic and she never saw a hockey game until the Canes arrived in Raleigh and I come from Detroit where I grew up on Redwing hockey. So, let me have it if you feel so inclined, but I really enjoy reading the views of all of you. If you find my ideas border on (or go over the border) insanity make your arguments on why you are right. I’m already fully aware of my hockey knowledge limitations.