On Saturday, the Carolina Hurricanes 2017-18 playoff chances officially died which makes for another long offseason of oscillating between trying to figure out what went wrong in the 2017-18 season and what needs to be done to build a winner for 2018-19 season.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a series of ‘what ifs’ that at least potentially could have charted a different course into the playoffs that start in two weeks.
What if…
Ron Francis had opted for another goalie other than Scott Darling?
In an article on January 23, I detailed the list of teams that added a starting goalie during the offseason prior to the 2017-18 season. Long story short, the Hurricanes were the loser by a wide margin in a five-team game of musical chairs to add starting goalies. With Cam Ward holding his own in a backup role before being pressed into the starting role, one has to wonder if any choice other than Scott Darling might have been enough to tip the 2017-18 season into playoff territory.
To this day, I still think the miss was when the team passed on the Frederik Andersen bidding war during the summer of 2016. I had him rated #1 of the options available last summer. The striking difference between Andersen and the Hurricanes misses with Eddie Lack and Scott Darling (thus far) is that Andersen had already established himself as an NHL starter and proven capable in that role. At the time that the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Andersen many shunned his allegedly high cost. But nearly two seasons later Andersen’s $5 million per year for four more years does not look outlandish for his steady play, and the trade cost would have been the picks used to select Julien Gauthier in 2016 and Eetu Luostarinen in 2017.
Had the Hurricanes dealt for and signed Frederik Andersen is it possible that their fortunes could be reversed with the Toronto Maple Leafs? Had Francis opted for any of the other starting goalies available last summer, would that have been enough to make the playoffs this season?
The team had opted for Justin Williams as captain?
The chronology of the captain situation has to rank as the oddest story of the offseason. In post-season interviews immediately following the 2016-17 season, Coach Bill Peters seemed content not to have anyone wearing a ‘C’ with no incredible urgency to name a captain. Then Justin Williams added on July 1, touted in a huge way for his leadership by the organization and then sounded like a captain in his initial interviews. Then somewhere along the way, Peters changed his tune and declared that a captain would be named before the start of the season. Then in the end no real decision was made when the team instead opted to name Jordan Staal and Justin Faulk co-captains leaving Justin Williams in a secondary informal leadership role. I voted for Williams largely because I just thought the team needed a jolt of some kind. Unfortunately, I think the team will enter the offseason still needing some kind of jolt to find a higher gear during crunch time/when it matters in order to push up over the hump and into the playoffs.
Bill Peters had shifted Sebastian Aho to center earlier in the season?
Last April Coach Bill Peters and General Manager Ron Francis seemed to be on the same page that the team needed to add a difference-maker offensively at the forward position. For whatever reason, such a player did not materialize during the offseason. (Though I think Justin Williams is a good player, I did not put him in this category.) Sticking to his original plan from comments made during the offseason, Peters did not shift Sebastian Aho to the center position. He instead decided to give it a go with three defense-leaning centers in Jordan Staal, Victor Rask and Marcus Kruger and one offense-leaning center who was really more of a depth player in Derek Ryan. Without the addition of an playmaking/scoring catalyst type center, should Peters have expedited the process of transitioning Aho to center? Less than three weeks into the 2017-18 season, I did not like the trajectory of the team offensively and suggested exactly that in a Daily Cup of Joe article on October 28 entitled “Seeking more offense from within.” My first bullet point in that article read, “Put Sebastian Aho in a position to play with the puck on his stick more.” We will never know what might have happened had Aho moved to center earlier, but it is definitely an interesting point to ponder.
The team had reached to the AHL level for help earlier and more often?
The recent results from Valentin Zykov and Warren Foegele have been eye-opening even if only an initial burst in a small sample size. The potential for at least short bursts of help seem to have been available, and who knows what the results might have been in terms of sparking the entire roster with energy and motivation to keep ice time in the face of challenges from below had more AHLers been involved at the NHL level sooner.
Francis had brokered a deal for a top 6 scoring type forward?
This one might be the most tricky of all since the most common name bandied about was Matt Duchene. As most know, Duchene ultimately fetched a ridiculous king’s ransom in trade assets and has since done almost nothing to salvage Ottawa’s season. So there is definitely a case to be made for prudence being better than aggressiveness in this regard. But the bigger question is what might have been possible had Francis had a bit more wheeler/dealer in his blood and been able to pull off one of the ‘wow’ deals that has not been that uncommon the past few summers. When Colorado’s Joe Sakic was having trouble unloading Matt Duchene, might the door have been cracked open for Francis to make an offer that Sakic could not refuse for Nathan MacKinnon just so Sakic could shake things up in some way? In my article on June 6, 2017, I suggested that Francis should do exactly that. The scouting report and rating for MacKinnon have proven to be dead on with the Colorado center in Hart Trophy consideration. Who knows if such a low probability deal could have been pulled off, but trades of Taylor Hall, P.K. Subban and Ryan Johansen in recent times make it clear that nothing is impossible. Regardless of if MacKinnon could have been pried loose, the bigger question remains – What would have happened had Francis added a higher-end scoring forward last summer?
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you think of these ‘what ifs’?
2) Who has more worth considering?
Go Canes!
I think these are all fair questions. The biggest ones surround Darling’s hype and not obtaining top 6 scoring help.
Most everyone was excited about Darling, and while the deal brought a splash of freshness and happiness, there was the asterisk of him not being a starter before. This was bantered about by many over the summer. Of course, we cannot say now this was a bad deal after many thought it was a good one. The reality though is results matter…and the deal looks bad.
Not landing a top 6 forward (not even adding another veteran D to the mix) was mindboggling. Our struggles remained evident and post game clichés became the norm. The on-ice leadership was lacking, and I think it’s deeper than just slapping the ‘C’ on Williams. There was much talk about trying to land a 1C that isn’t available, when we really just need a 2C who can play as a #1 for short term until Aho/Necas prove ready. Same philosophy on defense.
In the end, some may say we should have brought up the kids earlier in the year, especially with their play in the NHL of late. But late season auditions are very different with no data to suggest the kids were ready for the NHL in November. We needed a proven NHLer or two (with character and grit) to balance our youth and collectively show them this is how you fight for wins. We still do heading into next year.
Good points Matt.
I’d add 3 minor points.
Why wasn’t an experienced top 4 D man brought in to support the up-and-coming core defense? The Canes have a collection of promising young kids on D but they clearly needed more on-ice guidance.
Why didn’t the canes add at least one consultant to its coaching staff, someone with more NHL coaching experience or just a fresh perspective. The coaching staff failed to read the situation and respond on numerous occasions throughout the season, maybe an outsiders perspective would have helped.
Why was JJ the one guy traded away at the deadline? He was the only 4th liner who played with some grit and scored some goals. Thumbs up to the Keg we got in return. He’s been on fire with the Checkers, but why trade away an NHL experienced guy with some grit and at least justifiable 4th line scoring for an AHL guy, no matter how good the AHL guy?
Have you notice that Jooris is now centering PIT’s 4th line?
1. A different goalie would not have made a difference to the defensive breakdowns in front of the net – to me, that remains more of an issue. That said, Darling underperformed expectations by a long shot. According to Waddell he showed up at training camp out of condition – not a good start and not a sign of commitment. But if the Hurricanes are where goaltenders go to die, would it have made a difference? Would we have been willing to pay the exorbitant salaries commanded by Bishop and Anderson? – not that Darling was driven by budget. But those guys are getting paid silly money for term.
2. You don’t need a C to be listened to on and off the ice. Williams was brought in to provide leadership, grit and determination. I would actually proffer the suggestion – given the inconsistent play throughout the season – that Williams underperformed this season in his primary role. Consider that as a topic for discussion, perhaps.
3. Aho should have been moved to center earlier – there is no doubt. But that would have meant that Peters would have had to completely change his vision of the team and it’s lines.
4. In 2015 as in 2016 the addition of AHL players to the Canes’ roster (including Slavin, Pesce, Ryan and PDG in 2015) provided spark and energy (and skill enhancement) to turn around poor starts to the season. Maybe not in November but certainly we should have been bringing players up for that exact same reason. Zykov might not sustain a ppg rate (particularly if he gets benched in the third again) but that type of change may well have put us in the playoffs with both energy and offensive production.
This, to me, ranks right up there with defensive breakdowns as the reason our season ends next Saturday.
5. I feel so vindicate with my assessment of trying to trade for Duchene. That would have been a true clusterfrick. But I think, Matt, you confuse Sakic’s desire to trade Duchene with Sakic’s interest in shaking things up. I think Sakic wanted to shake things up only trading Duchene and MacKinnon was never going to be available. Plus, Sakic waited to get what he wanted for Duchene (imagine the price for MacKinnon?) in spite of considerable criticism. He was vindicated by waiting. He was never desperate and waited for a desperate team to meet his demands.
A better trade possibility in hindsight was a straight 1-for-1 of RNH for Faulk, as seemed to be the talk two years ago.
A great list, Matt. I think many are related to the idea that BP wanted “proven” NHL players and seemed reluctant to change his system/lines in any meaningful way over a sustained period of time until it was too late (ie, Aho or Lindholm at Center; no Zykov, Foegele, or McKeown).
I do agree with raleigh that the defensive breakdowns were a bigger issue that Darling; it seemed almost every game there would be a significant oops that left our goalie hung out to dry. A stabilizing veteran presence might have helped our young D. I made a crazy suggestion near the deadline to get Dion Phaneuf (I liked how the LAK did that, especially after you net-out the retained salary and Gaborik salary). He’s the type of player that would have changed things – stability, leadership, nastiness.
I’d add one more: we stuck with our defensive-leaning 4th line way too long, and long after we realized they were ineffective both 5v5 and on the PK. What if we had bailed on it sooner and replaced it with a more offensive-leaning line?
Problems #1 and #2 were goaltending and defense.
Darling and Ward are both bad NHL starting goalies. The statistics bear that out. You can find plenty of third party websites that normalize for the quality of the scoring chances to see both are poor. Maybe Darling can bounce back, but Ward is who he is. A suitable backup, but going into a season with Cam Ward as your #1 goalie is waving a white flag at this point. As far as I’m concerned none of the other changes would have made a significant difference with bad goaltending.
The defense is an issue, but team defense is more than just defensemen. The Canes have plenty of poor defensive forwards that make things tough on the D. The Canes should plan to trade at least one of their soft, perimeter forwards over the summer. Plugging in Foegele will be an instant upgrade in defense, grit and size. Still, I agree that a veteran defenseman is badly needed to lead the way for these guys.