To avoid building a bubble only to see it burst, I have nearly perfectly steered clear of using the ‘P’ word with regard to the Canes December and January success and rise in the standings. With a natural checkpoint at the all-star break and no games to jinx for a full week, I will go out on a limb today.
Earlier today on Twitter, I stated that I could carve a reasonable path to the Canes finishing ninth or tenth in the Eastern Conference but thought that eighth was much harder.
My non-fancy, negative math
Right or wrong, I count Washington, Florida, New York (Isles), New York (Rangers), Detroit and Tampa Bay as in. By no means are all of these teams safe, but they are out ahead and I think the group in total is likely to continue upward. Tampa Bay was very much in the middle of the lower pack recently, but they are playing better and I think are likely to head up not down. I also see the other teams as solid with decent margin for error right now. That leaves 2 wild card slots currently held by Boston and Pittsburgh. With Crosby and the Pens in general playing better and Fleury having a great season, I fear that the Pens are also headed up not down despite very much being in the pack right now. That leaves Boston as maybe the easiest current playoff team to pick off. I am not completely sold on the Bruins, but their starting point at 8 games above .500 (versus Canes 3) is a nice starting point.
I guess the way that I think of it is that the Canes need to catch the best of 2-3 teams ahead of them and do it starting from minus a couple points. It is not impossible by any means with 31 games remaining, but it is an uphill battle.
But the trend is positive
But if you look at the current trajectory of the Carolina Hurricanes, things look more promising. The Canes 82-game pace by month is:
October (5-6-0) — 75-point pace
November (3-6-4) — 63-point pace
December (8-5-1) — 100-point pace
January (7-3-3) — 107-point pace
If the Hurricanes play at the same pace that they have for December and January combined, the team will finish with 93 points. The usual expectation is that it will take 94 or 95 points to win the last wild card slot. (Last year was higher, but I think part of that was driven by so many teams tanking extremely hard and fairly early for the McDavid/Eichel sweepstakes.)
So shorter version: If the Canes simply keep winning points at the same pace that they have for 2 months now, that should have them in the mix heading into the home stretch in early April. That would be absolutely sensational in its own right.
February sets up fairly well
After a haphazard January schedule that saw the Canes traveling before almost every game and logging some heavy miles on a quick trip out west and back and a number of 1-off home and road games, February is a bit more sane and also heavy on home cooking. The Canes start with 3 on the road against current non-playoff teams in Calgary, Winnipeg and Montreal and then play 8 of 10 games at home over the course of the rest of the month. If the Canes are going to push further upward I think February is the time. The first half of March sees 7 of 8 games on the road, so if the Canes have not at least maintained their current position at that point, it would be a hard time to push upward.
The keys
I think there are 3 keys to at least having a chance:
1-Continued strong play in net. A key contributor to the Canes rise in December and January was pretty solid goaltending on a nightly basis regardless of who started giving the Canes a chance if they showed up.
2-The veteran leaders at forward. As we grind into the second half of the season, the veterans at forward really need t carry the mail for a Canes team that is light on forward depth and scoring help. If he stays, I think it takes an Eric Staal surge combined with Jordan Staal’s line continuing its current play.
3-A regroup on defense and a second wind especially for the kids. After being a positive contributor with solid play at the front end of the December/January surge, the blue line has regressed of late with some real rough games and just generally more sporadic play. In a league that rewards staying in games with overtime/shootout loss points, being better defensively is important for winning obviously but also plays a huge role in playing 1-1 or 2-2 through regulation on lackluster nights to get 1 point even if you lose and 2 if you win the overtime coin flip.
The wild cards
The trade deadline: If the Canes win early in February, it will be really interesting to see what GM Ron Francis does at the trade deadline. I do not see him spending futures to play for 2015-16 under any circumstances, but might he stop or at least curtail the selling that many expected at the beginning of the season.
The rookies: With Noah Hanifin, Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin who comprise half of the defense already playing past a normal college season in terms of games, what happens next with them? With a week off, do they recharge and rise up because they are kids with young legs? Or do they wear down playing a season a season that is 30ish games longer than their longest prior season? The answer to those questions could have a huge say on how competitive the Canes are in the final quarter of the season.
A February to remember?
If the Canes can stay in it, the remaining calendar has a good number of potentially great hockey weekends. Mark you calendar for:
Feb 12 & 13 (Pit & NYI at home): This set was already circled on the calendar because of the 10-year Cup anniversary events, but now with only 3 games before that weekend, the importance of those nights will not end with the pre-game ceremonies.
Feb 19 & 21 (SJ & Tam at home): The very next weekend also features 2 home games.
Feb 26 & 28 (Bos & StL at home): And the month concludes with another weekend with 2 home games.
Mar 26 & 27 (NYI & NJ at home): After a March mostly on the road, IF the Canes can stay in the hunt, fans get a home back-to-back easily back into warm tailgating season on Easter weekend. How fun could that weekend be if the games still matter?
So what are the odds?
The math projectors seem to have the Canes chances of making the playoffs at 5-30 percent. I would agree with that. If you had 7 spots decided and then 3 teams with an equal chance to win the last spot, the odds would be 33 percent. From a pure mathematical perspective, the Canes chances are slightly worse than that. The Canes are still a few points behind (especially if you adjust for games in hand) the couple other teams fighting for the last spot and the batch of teams is really more like 5, not 3.
So my back-of-the-envelope math says that the Canes chances right now are 15-20 percent. That is not great, but there are 2 positives. First, the Canes very much control their own destiny. We are not at the stage where certain teams have to lose certain games. If the Canes play at their February pace, they will pass enough teams over the course of 31 games. Second, the trajectory is good. The Canes are a good hockey team right now and playing well.
Enjoy it!
The biggest thing for me is to thoroughly enjoy the fact that the team is where it is right now. Because games still matter losses will hurt more as a fan, but regardless of how it all ends, I think it would be a shame to let this season become a negative. We entered this season with the greatest positive being our optimism for the future. That future looks significantly better right now than it did in September by virtue of what the kids have accomplished already. For me, it is a time to just enjoy being in the mix.
Go Canes!
