With the start of the 2019 NHL Draft weekend now only four days away, the trade market should be starting to heat up. Most of the deals are usually announced over the weekend, but that does not mean things are not active right now.
In that vein, here are some watch points for this week.
The goalie position
Most likely for the Carolina Hurricanes at the goalie position for the 2019-20 season is that the team goes with some combination of Petr Mrazek, Curtis McElhinney and Alex Nedeljkovic. But the team has not really tipped its hat to indicate that it for certain is headed in that direction. If the team is looking to go a different direction, the next week could be when it happens. On the possible trade front, probably the biggest name floating around right now is Jonathan Quick. Quick is a proven, elite goalie with a strong playoff resume. But he is also 33 years old with four more years remaining on his contract with an average actual cost of $4 million and a yearly salary cap hit of $5.8 million. I like Quick but consider the four-year at his age to be very risky. But regardless, if the Hurricanes wish to look outside the organization for a goalie, this week could be the time.
The three second round picks
Another interesting situation for this week is the three second-round picks that the Hurricanes currently own. On the one hand, it would seem reasonable to trade one or two of these picks to another team looking to move up. On the other hand, the second round is an interesting place to draft. The Hurricanes found Sebastian Aho in the second round and have had decent luck (still too early to declare success) on Janne Kuokkanen and Eetu Luostarinen. If Tulsky values those second-round picks relative to what the broader NHL does and the scouting staff believes they can identify three good second round options, just maybe the Hurricanes actually keep and use all three picks.
Another blockbuster?
It took until the waning moments of the draft weekend, but in the end the Carolina Hurricanes pulled off a blockbuster last year sending Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm to Calgary in return for Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland and prospect Adam Fox. So the potential seems to be there for the Hurricanes to again pull off a significant trade this week.
What say you Canes fans?
1) In general, do you expect the Hurricanes to be active this week in terms of trade activity?
2) What are the odds that Hurricanes go the trade route to fill an open goalie slot or two?
3) Who has a trade prediction or trade wish or two?
Go Canes!
1. I think we won’t see much wheeling and dealing from the Canes.
2. About 30% I’d say.
3. If the team can find a way to pry lose a top scorer or potential scorer from someone like the Leafs I wouldn’t mind, seond line playmaking center or wing.
1. Too many teams are in a cap crunch, so this could be the year we offer sheet someone, and if matched, may leverage a trade in our favor. Otherwise I can see one or two significant deals.
2. I’ve said previously Quick would provide us high-end stability and his ability to groom a young fellow American netminder would be great for Ned. To expect the same or greater play from Mac and Mrazek is not out of the question, but may be forgetting that Mrazek started slow and has yet to string together consecutive years of good play while Mac played much more than ever. This is why I can see a Quick/Mac pairing to start, with Ned easing into the mix.
3. My guess is Faulk re-signs and it is Pesce that becomes the chip. Right or wrong, stats aside, this year may be the one where we actually trade value for value. Too many names to float around, but the team should be eager to bolster the 1C/2C slot with a Marner, Nylander, RNH, or William Karlsson type… and bring on an extra veteran defenseman.
I am opposite you on Faulk – regardless of what I would prefer I think we are going to find that his ask is too high for our cap/salary plans for the future, particularly given the talent we have under contract at lower price points and our prospect pool (Fleury/Bean/McKeown). Any of those would be a stepdown, at least initially (Bean has considerable upside) and our defense will step down a notch or two but this will be a business decision and I trust Waddell will make a smart one.
you do realize we don’t need to re-sign Faulk unless we want him beyond next season. He has one more year on his deal.
I hope we do not make any trades at all. We really got lucky last year with Dougie, Michael, and Adam (got some picks for him). We were lucky again with the Nino for Rask trade. Or maybe it all was brilliance on the part of Donny. Once might be luck. Twice? Brilliant.
So while I don’t want to think about a trade, I know that we need to replace Michael Ferland. We need a big nasty defenseman. Trade or UFA? Since I don’t want to break up the gang, I vote for UFA.
We don’t have an open goalie slot. If anything, I hope we pick up another goalie in the draft. Maybe a reasonably priced UFA. We can’t have too many goalies in reserve.
Having faith in Donny’s brilliance, I would like to see a trade not unlike the following:
To Edmonton
Bret Pesce
RFA rights to Haydn Fleury
Aleksi Saarela
Roland McKeown
2019 3rd round pick
Later 1st round pick
To Canes
Leon Draisaitl
Milan Lucic
RFA rights to Jesse Puljujarvi
Then pick up UFA Dion Phaneuf
1. I don’t think we go into draft weekend with 4 picks in the top 2 rounds and 10 total. We have a surfeit of high-end prospects as well, and I think there will be more holes as our UFAs (Saku, McKegg perhaps) don’t get resigned.
The trade with Calgary became bigger (more blockbustery) at the last moment when the final negotiating session with Lindholm ended acrimoniously on both sides. We didn’t target a deal that big going into talks with CGY.
And that is one reason I like Waddell – he is opportunistic (and effectively so).
2. Is there a mark lower than nil?? I really don’t see that happening.
3. I generally defer from being an armchair GM, but I do think with some combination of a D-man/picks/prospects we can get a mid-6, if not top-6, forward to boost our offense.
From what I heard talks with Lindholm and Hanifin went poorly. Waddell may not have intended to unload both on Calgary, but both were going to go.
Given how well the last two trades have gone for the Canes, you’d either want us to do another big one or rather we stop while we’re ahead. I think another trade is coming but I don’t see it being the garden variety defense-for-offense trade. I’d like to believe that we’ve made the decision to keep the core of our defense together and to use our surplus of picks and prospects to find more scoring. Kyle Turris had a terrible year but is rumored to be available and we might be able to get him (or someone like him) for picks/prospects.
I don’t see a trade for a #1 goalie but possibly for a backup depending on how we fill the #1; probably not happening this weekend though.
As for a trade wish – I actually have an Offer Sheet wish: if he’ll do it, let’s Offer Sheet Kapanen something like 5x 4.5-5. I would happily give up our 1st and a 3rd for him. I mentioned Turris above – I would be happy to have him for something like Wallmark + 2nd + sweetener if they retain salary.
I think Turris is a good option but could be had for less,. I’d actually like to keep Walmark around as next season’s 4C with significant upside, either within the season based on his play ot as an anchor for one of the best 4th lines in the league.
I see Walmark or Roy as possible replacements for Jordan Staal when his contract expires (or if he gets traded to Pit, which I don’t believe will happen).
I think, given his development and cap friendly salary, that Pesce should not be traded for anything short of a first line center. Look at how many teams want to sign Eric Carlson despite an inconsistent season last year and a 9 mill + price tag.
I don’t see the Canes taking on Lucic’s contract under any circumstances, not unless the Oilers retain half his salary and significantly reduce their asking prices for the two forwards e.g. Faulk instead of Pesce.
Puljajarvi spent most of last season in the Oilers’ doghouse and would be a good bargain if their new GM does not free him. He is a high risk but pretty high reward player who really could use some of his countrymen, but the Canes should be weary of giving up too much for his rights.
I do not think we will see major trade activity from the Canes. If we do, it’s because contract negotiations aren’t going well with someone. That someone would likely be Faulk. I also think the price tag for Aho will keep Dundon from taking on more salary. The Skinner deal just made Aho a bunch more money.
I doubt the Canes trade for a goalie. If they do it would signal talks are going poorly with Mrazek. They may sign a different UFA goalie if McElhinney’s ask is too much, but I doubt they would give up much in a trade when they have Ned on the cusp.
With all the names being flashed around I think everyone should consider two of the main factors that the Canes have used when adding to the roster under the new regime. Do they play the game the right way? (Brind’Amour way) Are they good in the locker room? Several names mentioned get a “no” for one or both of these questions. Little chance those guys will be in Carolina.
lts – I agree with you on the two factors you mention – do they play the game RBA’s way and quality guys on/off the ice. Waddell and RBA have made a point on the latter. For the former, I sometime wonder if that bias will preclude us from taking on or bringing up skill guys of if guys like Foegele are always going to get more of a look.
And I agree that several names mentioned are no-go’s on that basis.
It is something that a lot of “armchair GM” bloggers seem to not realize.
Fit and style are certainly important, but not every talented offensive player is a bad fit either (aka Skinner).
If RBA and team wants to make it past the 2nd round of playoffs, we need a better offense and power play. Something has to give. I believe RBA is not even 100% sold on Aho being a 1C, so we need at least a 2C that can dictate play. That and solidifying goaltending should be priorities this weekend.
Not sure if I’m reading your post right, but the Canes definitely considered Skinner a bad fit. Why else trade him for spare parts?
In other words…Skinner was a bad fit, but that doesn’t mean every offensively talented player is a bad fit or wouldn’t play to the system.
Agree. Offensive players that refuse to give the effort in the other zones are the non-fit.
Faulk just got way more expensive. Karlsson signs in SJ for 8 years and $11M per. Yikes!
The question is where on the rebuilding – contending line are the canes at right now. If a contender, then making a run at Bob to be our goalie makes sense. Though a long contract for a goalie is scary.
I predict Panarin goes back to the hawks as they have about 17 mil in cap space
The biggest name on the trade block may be Taylor Hall. Do’t think he gets traded inside the East but he is one of the few that I would Pesce for.
The canes are on a lot of no trade lists so that complicates trades.
RBA must avoid the trap of one dimensional players. You can’t win the cup with a team of nothing but gritters and grinders.
The Skinner deal was a case where philosophy forced a very bad business decision, that must not be repeated.
I’m glad the Canes do not have a D man worth 11 mill for 8 years, I think the Sharks are going to regret this deal pretty badly, not unless they can capture the cup in the next 2 or 3 years at most.
I am sure Aho could’ve been signed for sub 7 mill last summer, now 8 mill looks like a bargain.
Well, I wouldn’t sign Skinner to a new deal. I’m not going to argue that we shouldn’t have gotten more since I wanted us to make a deal for O’Reily. You would think that the sabres and canes could have worked that out.
The big problem is the length of these deals. Is Karlson going to be able to lace up skates in the last years of this contract. I am glad he is staying out west.
“RBA must avoid the trap of one dimensional players. You can’t win the cup with a team of nothing but gritters and grinders.”
Word.
Just because Skinner was shown the door doesn’t mean Brind’Amour doesn’t want offensive players. Teravainen has improved greatly in the defensive and neutral zones. Brind’Amour has praised him quite a bit for it. That doesn’t mean Teravainen is good in the defensive zone. It means he gives the effort. That is what I believe is what they are looking for. Guys that cheat and take short cuts need not apply.
Frankly, if you want to talk about a guy that signed and drafted cookie cutter big guys that play both ways, we should be talking about Ron Francis.
There are two offensive minded players that RBA trusts – Turbo and Aho. That trust comes hard – and I have to see how RBA allows trust to be built with younger players who are more finesse than grit-and-grind – players like Necas and Saarela, for example vs. Foegele.
Williams is also an offensive minded player.
I’ve seen little of Saarela, so I have no opinion, but Necas was brutal last year. He literally had no idea of where to go on defense. So many times he would chase the puck and go to a man already covered and create an odd man situation. I hope he has learned a few things in Charlotte. Moving him from center should make things a bit easier.
Svechnikov at least had an idea of what to do even if he wasn’t great at it early. He improved and was given more opportunity and responsibility, which is the right way to treat a rookie. Throwing a guy into the deep end sometimes works, but it also is a way to shatter a players confidence.
JW may be “offensive minded” but he is not a high-end skilled offensive player (like Aho or Turbo).
I have watched a lot of Necas with the Checkers this year – his development there has been very impressive.
And Saarela may well have a shot that is in the top-10 of eithe NHL or AHL with the ability to “catch and shoot” or create his own shot on the rush.
Thank the gods for AHLTV which provided an excellent and cheap view to the Checkers this past season.
Skinny certainly had us over a barrel. He had a complete no movement clause. He chose the team to which he would be traded. Buffalo knew that they didn’t need to make a deal. They totally put the blocks to us. They knew that Dundon wanted him gone.
But what we saw with Skinny’s new deal, as well as many others in the NHL. The long term deals usually extend well beyond a player’s prime. Buy now, pay later. And then the owners whine and cry when they are stuck with what is known as a toxic contract. Poor babies!
Meanwhile, in today’s NHL, we have a new phenomenon. We have the “experts” in the new NHL saying that heavy hockey is dead. They insist that all available slots on a team be filled with undersized scorers. But the real NHL demonstrates that a team lacking gritty players and an enforcer or two gets blown out of the playoffs. This is not a theory. It is a fact.
Why are we messing around with Michael Ferland? Might it be that both Willy and the Seabass are waiting to see what Donny does to assure their health this coming season? I believe so.
Every unsigned defensemen today is thrilled at his decision to remain unsigned given the monster deal given to Karlsson by San Jose today. Their value has increased greatly overnight. Similarly there are a half dozen high quality RFAs ala Aho waiting for someone to sign and reset their market value higher. There is no advantage in being the first to sign. That seems to be the best rationalization of Aho’s reason to stay unsigned. As for Willie, he is as likely considering retirement as the team signing a body guard.
I’m not clear on the meaning of “messing around with Ferland”. He is under contract with the Canes until July 1st. He seems intent to test the free agent market. There are no reports of negotiations with Ferland or his agent. What less can the team do?
Excellent article and 27 comments. Thank you I read them all!