Through 29 games in the 2019-20 season, the Carolina Hurricanes rank 13th out of 31 teams in terms of goal scoring. Sitting at slightly above average, it would be unfair to call the situation dire, the recent trend in terms of scoring has not been positive. Not counting and empty-netter, the Hurricanes have mustered only eight goals in the last six games and have been shut out twice. The loss of Erik Haula has had an impact as has a couple scorers not hitting stride yet. And reaching the point in the season when good teams tighten things up a bit, the Hurricanes could benefit from finding more offense.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers three paths to more scoring.
1) Underperformers finding a higher gear
There is a decent amount of untapped potential in the current lineup. After scoring 14 goals in 36 games with the Hurricanes in 2018-19, Nino Niederreiter has only three goals through 29 games. Ryan Dzingel who scored 26 goals last season has only five so far. There is also potential upside even from depth players like Brock McGinn, Jordan Martinook and Lucas Wallmark who have only six goals between them. There seem to be enough sources that perhaps a scoring boost occurs simply from a few players finding a higher gear.
Are some of these players just do to find the net more? Can Brind’Amour’s line tinkering find chemistry to boosts scoring?
2) The forecheck dialing up
The catalyst for much of the Canes scoring in 2018-19 was not so much players, pretty plays or playmaking. Rather, the ignition switch for the offense on many nights was a relentless forecheck that rolled across four lines, overwhelmed opponents in their own end and generated a healthy amount of scoring chances across all four lines. The Hurricanes greatest success early in the 2019-20 seemed to be more a result of opportunistic and skilled scoring rather than from the forecheck.
Can the 2019-20 Hurricanes find a higher gear forechecking-wise? Or is this just a different team with different skill sets and strengths?
3) Don Waddell taking action
The offseason saw the Hurricanes lose two proven scorers in Micheal Ferland and Justin Williams but replace them with Ryan Dzingel and Erik Haula. The team also added Martin Necas from the AHL ranks. But with Haula’s injury and uncertain future, the team might just be short on offensive fire power especially of the playmaking variety from the center position. If the team slots down the middle as Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Lucas Wallmark and another depth player or AHLer, one could argue that the team really only has one center who leans offense and could provide a boost for line mates. I view the other three slots as scoring lite relative to their slot. I continue to think that Martin Necas is ultimately the next scoring center, but that move is likely in the future. So that being the case, perhaps the team adds from outside.
Can Don Waddell pull off another trade and add offensive fire power ideally in the form of a top 9 center who maybe leans offense? Or does the salary cap situation make it too difficult to broker such a deal?
What say you Canes fans?
1) To what degree do you think the Hurricanes have a scoring problem?
2) Of the three potential paths to more scoring, which do you think is mostly likely viable?
3) Do you have other potential sources of more scoring?
Go Canes!
I was thinking about this topic on my morning walk.
1) I see a change in style. Last season the (good version of) canes played more of a “high risk / high reward” style, intending to win games 5-3 or 5-4. This is a fun and successful style of hockey that recognizes there will be “oops” in every game, but that is OK as long as you score more than you give up. As Tom Dundon famously said (paraphrasing) “if we score 5 goals and lose, at least I had fun”.
This is an offense-first style that seeks to carry the puck into the zone, Directly create high danger chances, transitioning to primary and secondary breaks as often as possible. The occasional turnover and easy goal against is considered an acceptable price to pay.
Similar to this time of the season last year, the canes have retreated to a “mistake elimination” style of play, with an objective of winning 1-0 or 2-1.
It is a defense-first style, where “getting the puck in deep” is valued over all else.
This style features dump-and-chase, and depend on the other team to make a mistake to generate scoring chances. When both teams play this style, the fewest mistakes wins.
The former style is a scoring contest and the latter style is a mistake contest. I strongly prefer the scoring contest, both for results and enjoyment.
2) of the three options listed, in a mistake contest the forecheck has to dial it up. The canes have to force more mistakes than they make.
3) See my answer to #1!
I am not overly concerned about scoring. Compared to last season at this point the Canes are just fine. Wasn’t Williams shooting something like 2% around this time last season? I think more will come from Niederriter. Watching him last night he is doing good things. Just snakebit at this point. I believe goals will come. I think more goals are coming from both Necas and Svechnikov. I agree with Brind’Amour that Svechnikov is just getting started. He’s learning what he can do, and it’s a lot! I expect 35 from him this year.
On the negative side is Jordan Staal. Never an offensive minded player, he looks worse than ever in the offensive zone. It appears he has lost a step or more as well. Maybe the guy can lose 10 lbs. over the summer and get a step back, but he is just not in position to make plays. He did have three good shot opportunities last night. Two went 6 feet over the net, the the third was dangerous.
A better forcheck is always wanted. I think the Canes will get there as the season progresses.
I don’t see a significant trade coming. Too difficult with the Canes cap situation. Maybe Williams will come back, but who knows how effective he will be? I do think they will pick up someone at the trade deadline.
The best way to increase scoring is to get healthy. We had much better production when Haula was in the lineup – he got off to a great start that jump-started the entire offense. But he may not be back anytime soon or even at all … And Necas has turned out to be very important to our offensive both as a finisher and a playmaker.
Wondering when we start to hear more JW rumblings especially now that we’re two Top 9 forwards down.
I would think GMDW might look to the non-rental trade market – not the Taylor Hall market – but I’m betting he’s reluctant to part with one of our top 7 defensemen given how important depth turned out to be in the playoffs last year given and we’re tracking toward making the playoffs.
Huala has tendonitis. He’ll be back, but might go out again. Could be on and off the rest of the season. We’ll see.
Well that’s actually better news that I thought. I had not heard that before – maybe I missed it – been traveling quite a bit lately.
There have been a couple of reports of tendonitis – but I think it may be more serious as tendonitis simply because it is tendonitis on a reconstructed knee. As lts suggests, I think it will be an on-again/off-again situation for him.
1. We have excellent primary scoring – but the second tier hasn’t been there either because of injuries (Haula and now Necas) or something not clicking (Nino and Dzingel). I keep references to number of games without a goal/pont when Canes players are being discussed (that, of course, happens when you are getting shut out). the team needs to find a way to get Nino and Dzingel back in the groove – Nino is getting his chances (including last night) but I don’t Dzingel pushing the puck or trying to get the puck to net. I don’t know enough about how he was utilized last year to know what is off with him now.
2. Right now we have a checking-focussed lineup. Ramping up the forecheck to me is the clearest path to creating chances.
3. D-men other than Hamilton – Gardiner, specifically, if he can springboard off last night’s success. But I think we have reached close to the offensive ceilings for Slavin and Pesce.
I would not be surprised to see Waddell trading expiring contracts to bring in a top-9 player with an offensive bent. It’s what you do, isn’t it?
I think the offense is fine and may just need more time. Even Dzingel is quietly on pace for 45 pts, but there is no denying some like Nino and Wallmark are struggling and to other’s points there is a gap.
DW will probably take action in the form of a middle-6 center/wing via trade who is solid on the forecheck. Toffoli, Athanasiou maybe even Kreider are a few names that keep coming up. There are probably more options but other teams want something in return. Cost should not be a concern as there are other transactions that can be made to allow a key addition, which is my preferred option to add one more forward piece.
Keeping Hall from going to another eastern conference team could be the difference between making the playoffs or not. So tracking that and making a move is almost certainly a must for the Canes. Probably cost at a 1s, a 2nd and Bean. Actually I think the coyotes will get him which is fine with me just not the Pens.
I think JWilly will come back soon, he can sign a PDO and get a few games with the Checkers. Then JWilly and the Canes can make a decision.
The good news on the offensive front is that Necas was at practice today.