Not counting the empty-netter, the Capitals have outscored the Hurricanes only by a narrow 6 to 5 margin in six regulation periods of hockey. With a 0-2 deficit in the only thing that matters, the deficit might feel bigger, but in reality the Hurricanes are a couple big plays or lucky bounces away from being home at 1-1 or even possibly 2-0.
But part of the game of long seven-game series is the chess match of making adjustments to eliminate weaknesses or gain advantages. After two games and with the transition to home ice, today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at some things that Brind’Amour is likely considering heading into game 3 at PNC Arena on Monday night.
Xs and Os for defending in transition
One of the most glaring problems that the Hurricanes had intermittently in both games but especially game 2 was the Hurricanes inability to sort things out in the instances when the Capitals beat the first level of the forecheck and gained the ability to attack with speed. Rather than attacking by pushing the puck down the middle and distributing to the sides, the Capitals have regularly pushed the puck deep on the sides with a sizable gap between the other first forward in. The result is that the Hurricanes defensemen are pushed wide in picking up their assignments off the rush and that the middle lane is often open. In any case where a Hurricanes forward is a step slow or lacking even a small amount of diligence in terms of position, the Capitals are having players slashing into that lane often with a path to the net. No doubt, the team will spend some time with video hoping to do a better job of defending off the rush. Part of it is a higher level of diligence by the forwards coming back. Another part is the defensemen doing a better job of taking away passing lanes to the middle, possibly given up more odd angle shots. Regardless of tactics, the Hurricanes need to be better at defending in transition, so that will definitely gain some of Brind’Amour’s attention between games.
==> Watch for the Hurricanes forwards coming back in transition to make more of a concerted effort to take away passing lanes and the middle of the ice.
The defense pairings
Home ice changes things a bit with Brind’Amour having greater ability to dictate match ups with the last change on face-offs. It will be interesting to see if/how Brind’Amour adjusts based on that and what he has seen through two games. He seems to lack trust for Haydn Fleury who logged only 4:22 of ice time in game 2. And the Faulk/Pesce pairing that Brind’Amour was using as his top pairing has struggled at times and has featured heavily in the struggles defending the rush. If Calvin de Haan who has been skating returns, Brind’Amour could have more options, but after a 15-day layoff de Haan would still be a bit of a wild card.
The question is whether Brind’Amour feels good enough about what he has with the ability to pick match ups or if thinks changes are needed. On the one hand, one could argue not to panic and overreact after a couple ‘meh’ not horrible road games against a great team. On the other hand, the Hurricanes desperately need to win game 3 to play their way up into the series. Personally, I like the idea of reuniting Slavin and Pesce, but that is problematic on a couple fronts. First, if de Haan does not return, that leaves Brind’Amour with three right shots and Fleury to choose from to build a second pairing which seems like a no-go.
Best bet is that Brind’Amour will ride what was mostly working down the stretch, ask the group to step up and be a bit better and maybe most significantly make sure the forwards do a better job of playing passing lanes and taking away paths to the net in transition.
==> I really do not think there is much that Brind’Amour can do here other than challenge guys and pick match ups based on what is working best. As much as I would like to see Slavin/Pesce, I do not think it works right now.
The forward lines
Sebastian Aho did pick up a goal on Saturday, but through two games one of the headlines is the Capitals’ top players outproducing the Hurricanes top players by a huge margin. Through two games Backstrom, Ovechkin and Wilson have combined for 10 scoring points. Aho, Williams and Niederreiter have but two points. The best in terms of production so far have been Andrei Svechnikov and Lucas Wallmark.
Is there something that Brind’Amour can do to spark his top line?
Is there something that Brind’Amour can do to leverage what is working with Svechnikov and Wallmark?
Can a change in combinations work better for game 3?
Interestingly, the Hurricanes have scored five goals in two games, so it is not like the offense has been completely missing. But it still feels like this group has a higher gear.
With Wallmark and Svechnikov being the closest the team has to hot hands right now, I might consider adding more offense on their wing possibly moving Teravainen across or otherwise playing Ferland there.
In terms of trying to get the top line going, I think it all runs through Aho. Niederreiter is not so much a creator but rather a good complementary finisher and Williams I think also just benefits from having chances in the offensive zone. The potential of again reuniting Aho and Teravainen is always there but simpler might just be the fact that the team is waiting for Aho to find a higher gear again.
==> During the regular season, Brind’Amour leaned really strongly toward patience with line combinations, but with the season very likely riding on game 3, I think he makes a move or two to try to spark the forward lines.
Goaltending
Despite allowing four goals including the overtime game-winner, Petr Mrazek was more positive than negative in Saturday’s loss. He was phenomenal in the second half of regulation making some 10-bell saves to keep the Hurricanes in the game. There is no reason to change goalies based on Mrazek’s play. But during the regular season, the team won with a rotation that used both goalies, so reverting to that rotation would seem at least possible after consecutive losses.
==> For the playoffs, I think the preference would be to ride one goalie. Add that to the fact that Mrazek seems to be trending up, and I do not expect to see a change in net. If the Hurricanes lose game 3, I actually do think Brind’Amour will give McElhinney a shot.
Netting it out
Other than the early deficits and intermittent struggles defending against the rush, the Hurricanes played the Capitals even or better in the first two games. As such, I do not see Brind’Amour making rash changes. The team should be better defending the rushes that often see the puck on the side and players slashing to the middle. And minor tinkering with the forward lines aiming to catch a spark or two might make sense. But I would not expect or advocate wholesale changes.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What, if any, moves/changes do you anticipate Brind’Amour making with the defense pairings and utilization of his defensemen?
2) What changes do you anticipate Brind’Amour making with the forward lines?
3) If you were in Brind’Amour’s shoes, what changes would you make?
Go Canes!
1. If deHaan returns you hope for the best that he is 75%. This might be a game you go with 7 defenseman in the event. Not sure that’s Rod’s preference or that he wants to disrupt a 4th line, but this may be the game to do so.
2. I think you might see a small tweak, such a moving Svech back to Staal’s line, likewise Ferland to Wallmark’s. Or go for broke, possible reunite Aho/Turbo/Ferland, drop Nino to Staal’s line with Marty, and Williams with Wallmark and Svech.
3. Start with the former, then go with the latter if needed. Regarding goalies, Mrazek earns his home game start. If they lose, Mac gets game 4. Nothing to lose at this point.
1. I don’t think he’ll make changes. The main change will be the ability to dictate matchups.
2. If he makes a move with forwards, I wonder if the move is Svech – flipping spots with Williams or Ferland.
3. I think I’d make no changes in forward lines to start. If the team comes out flat or gets behind, I’d make a move to spark the team – Svech with Aho (moving Williams to play with Staal-TT).
However, the big change that needs to happen is on the PP units. Scrap PP1 and PP2 setup and just send out Aho line with Slavin-Hamilton and then Staal line with Pesce-Faulk. (although realistically, it’s probably too late to make a change like this)
I don’t see any significant adjustments being made in the lineup – not defense pairings and minor shifts, perhaps, on the forward lines – at least to start the game.
And as you said we havce played them even or better for about 50 of the 61+ minutes on ice.
I haven’t see the stats but we are getting chances on goal – are we not?
The big adjustment has to come in style of play – transition defense , again as you indicate, is the big one.
The other aspect I should have mention – again, you already did – is controlling the matchups and working that to the team’s advantage.
The ability of the Caps to attack in transition is directly a product of the Canes heavy reliance on a deep, relentless forecheck as the always preferred style of play.
This may not be the best strategy against a team like the Caps, or in the playoffs in general. However, it is the girl we brought to the dance.
Tonight will be interesting. Here are my questions about this game.
Will the Canes be able to score first? Keeping the Canes fans energized, and the large conspicuous contingent of Caps fans sitting on their hands may be vital to the energy either team can produce tonight.
How violent will the refs allow this game to get? It’s likely Wilson, Orpik and/or Ovechkin take runs early and often at Canes players in general and Ferland in specific tonight. (Note to self: The refereeing will be awful. Don’t let that ruin your night.)
After the win tonight will the team be able to resist the urge for a spontaneous storm surge? Fans will certainly be sticking around after the game ends hoping for one.