Now halfway through January and a full five games past the halfway point, today’s Daily Cup of Joe assesses the current state of the Carolina Hurricanes, where the team stands with regard to pushing back up into the playoff chase and what lies ahead.
A December that very nearly killed the season
The Hurricanes came within inches of completely ending the 2018-19 season in an abysmal December. After a rousing three-game winning streak at home over Thanksgiving, the Hurricanes then sputtered. The team did manage to go 1-1-1 in the last three games of November, but the team’s December was brutal. The Hurricanes were 1-4-1 in the first half of the month, and no better going 2-4 in the second half of the month. The 3-8-1 December was the kind of month that puts teams in the middle of the standings definitively on the underside of the playoff cut line.
An attempt to recover
Just when the season seemed to be officially over at least in terms of playoff hopes, the Hurricanes surged. Counting a win on the last day of December, the Hurricanes won seven out of eight. The front part of the winning streak benefited from a weak schedule, but the second half featured impressive wins over the Blue Jackets, Islanders, Sabres and Predators in addition to a loss to the Lightning that was more good than bad. But even with the massive surge the Hurricanes entered action on Tuesday still four points out of a playoff spot (adjusted for games played). In rough terms, even after winning seven out of eight, the Hurricanes really needed another run of about four wins in a row or maybe five wins in six. But impressively, the Hurricanes were at least within range of the playoff chase and trending in the right direction.
What is ahead?
For January, the Hurricanes next have a home game against Ottawa that they really need to convert into a win. Then the Canes head out West for a three-game trip through Western Canada before an extended eight day break with the All-Star break and their bye week. After two games at home to start February, the Hurricanes encounter a five-game road trip.
To push up into the playoff chase requires two things in my opinion. First, the team will need at least one more extended winning streak where it wins five or six games in a row or seven out of eight like it just did. That burst could come as late as March. But for it to matter the Hurricanes must also avoid any kind of extended downturn. Even a short run of losses has the potential to give back what was gained in early January and make a late miracle all but impossible.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Did the Hurricanes do enough in early January such that you would say they are back in the playoff chase, or does the team still need another burst to stake that claim?
2) When you look at the schedule for the second half of the season, what stretches to do you see as most critical and/or most likely to yield another surge upward?
Go Canes!
1. A solid 10 game stretch brought the team within reach of having a chance.
2. Every remaining stretch is important so I try not to get hung up on which stretch is key (because they all have to be). There is little doubt we have to repeat winning 8 of every 10 games to have a real shot. With 3-point games and other teams establishing distance, making up 6-7 points is tough. We may need some help.
Both teams that we are chasing for a playoff spot won their games last night so we may be 5 or 6 points behind now.
Despite enjoying the Canes hockey of late I can’t get away from my daytime job which involves data analysis, the Canes doomed themselves in December and I’d peg the chances at them reaching the playoffs at less than 5%.
If we look at the next 4-game stretch, Ott at home folowed by the western Canada swing the Canes must come out at least one point ahead of 500, which is not easy. There’s a lot of talent in the far pacific northwest and the Flames will be hell bent on embarrassing the canes.
I think if the Canes are gunning for a playoff spot that they need to make a move now to strengthen the team at forward.
If they are standing pat it means they’re already thinking next year.
Sadly we’ve seen this picture before, the W streaks that do not quite get the canes to the playoffs but remove them from all the near guaranteed difference maker forward selections in the draft.
This has happened for over a decade now and I see yet another repeat ahead.
The draft lottery rules have changed to discourage tanking; the canes were the beneficiaries of that last year, but ideally they need to either crash and burn or make the playoffs, but the most likely outcome is an all-too-familiar repeat.
At least I think the team has a young core of up and coming players and I hope the new ownership is serious about putting together a winner, they can with a little generosity.
Let’s just hope the team is on the rise and that next season will be better, like we’ve hoped in the past, like we’ll hope in the future, time without end.
The recent results have been encouraging and fun to watch – we’re scoring goals both at power play and full-strength. We’re getting bounces as well. It’s almost like the Hockey Gods are cracking a smile at the team.
When it’s all said and done, In late March we may still point to December’s results as the back breaker for the season. Then again, maybe not.
As for the remainder of the season, we need to consistently win and avoid losing streaks. Another 3-6 game losing streak will probably take us out of the hunt.
Trades: An outlier for the remainder of the season will be any possible trades. There are rumors about Faulk, Hamilton, Ferland and perhaps one or two others being dangled as trade bait. That said, if management does pull the trigger what will be the return, and does the new asset create negative or positive immediate impact for the 2018/2019 season. That remains to be seen.
The recent results have been fun and hope the team can maintain the same level of energy and offensive results through April. The Hurricanes control their destiny.
1. The team definitely needs another run of wins. To put it another way we are back to .500 hockey the past 4 games and that won’t cut it.
2. Where do we sit on 2/12 is the biggest question for me? That ends our road-heavy schedule plus coming back from an extended (which does us no favors) – a lot of tough teams and tough venues between now and then. But the team has to not fall further behind – it is the difference between being buyers or sellers at the deadline.