Check out also today’s ‘Checking In with Brandon Stanley’ who assesses AHL-level prospects Jake Bean, Clark Bishop and Trevor Carrick.
The 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes finished the regular season with a solid 99 points. In most seasons that would be a good 4-5 points above the playoff cut line. So a repeat in 2019-20 would likely again be good enough for a playoff berth, and the 2019 playoffs proved yet again that one the Hurricanes get into the playoffs, anything can happen.
But the goal this time of year is always to improve. Some of that can come from additions, but ideally a big contributor is simply players improving. With the youthfulness of the Hurricanes roster, step-wise improvement from within is definitely a possibility. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers what could be a next leg up for multiple Hurricanes players.
Lucas Wallmark
Lucas Wallmark was a success story in 2018-19. When Victor Rask was sidelined before the season, Wallmark had a spot on the NHL roster. And when Martin Necas proved not to be NHL-ready in his early-season audition, Wallmark’s role as a center became even more important. And then when Jordan Staal was sidelined for an extended period of time, Wallmark was pushed into an even more significant role filling in for Staal lining up against many of the NHL’s best in a checking role.
And Wallmark performed admirably. I would characterize his play during the 2018-19 season as steady and mature beyond his experience level. He was rarely dynamic or dominant, but he was equally rarely out-manned or bad.
So Wallmark gets high marks for parachuting into an NHL role and and being serviceable as a two-way defenseman in any role. But his offensive production left something to be desired. With a decent volume of ice time and a reasonable volume of ice time with Andrei Svechnikov, Wallmark mustered only 10 goals and 28 points. That represents tremendous depth scoring if one slots Wallmark as a fourth-line center but underwhelming production for a top 9 forward with a reasonable volume of favorable ice time.
Where Wallmark goes from here will be interesting. On the one hand, he very much reminds me of v1.0 of Victor Rask who similarly was far ahead of his experience level in terms of sound two-way play. He also reminds me of Rask in the sense that he has a decent tool bag of offensive abilities but just is not really great any anything specific. And the downside of the Rask comparison is that he similarly lacks acceleration/speed or anything else dynamic that directly generates offense with individual plays. So that version of Wallmark projects probably to be the medium version of Rask who is competent defensively and serviceable offensively. But despite similarities to Rask’s early development (which is a positive despite the ultimate ending), Wallmark’s story is still unwritten. He was a very productive player at the AHL level. With a full year of NHL experience now under his belt, could Wallmark hit a higher gear offensively in 2019-20?
The current version: The 2018-19 version of Wallmark is a great fourth-line center easily with the capability to fill in on a higher line. As a fourth-liner mid to high 20s for points is solid depth scoring, and he is serviceable both on the penalty kill and power play. That is a great depth forward.
The next level: The next step up for Wallmark would be if he could look more like the scorer he was in the AHL and become a much more productive player offensively.
Sebastian Aho
With head coach Rod Brind’Amour wavering in preseason on whether Sebastian Aho was better utilized as a wing or a center, Aho stepped into the center role and never looked back. His transition was smooth, and his production was there from the beginning. He did have a few too many instances where his attention to detail slipped enough in the offensive zone to remind him of the need to identify and handle specific assignments versus occasionally floating a bit and loosely defending an area. But the struggles were modest and easily overshadowed by what he was able to do offensively. Aho started well and was even better in the middle part of the season when the team surged and pushed up into playoff position. His point per game pace and ability to be the driving force on a scoring line easily made him a worthy catalyst for a first or second scoring line.
The current version: The 2018-19 version of Aho is someone who could be penned into a first or second line center slot for most of the next decade. So there is no dire need for Aho to improve from what he has already accomplished.
The next level: That said, I do think there is a higher gear for Aho in two regards. First is that (again) though it is not necessary, there is still one more tier for him climbing into the tier of players who are truly elite. That would require pushing up closer to 100 points. In addition, the tail end of the season and playoffs do leave room for improvement. Possibly due to being dinged up, Aho’s best hockey came in the middle third of the season, and he was not quite as good down the stretch. Similarly, Aho was good but not great in the playoffs. Stanley Cup Championships are usually won by teams whose best players are dominant in the playoffs. Aho was that for stretches during the regular season, but he never really was in the playoffs. So the next time the Hurricanes see playoff hockey, there is another level potentially there for Aho.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on Lucas Wallmark? Has he mostly peaked as a capable depth forward, or do you think he will find a higher gear in 2019-20 with a full year of NHL experience under his belt?
2) After posting a point per game in a top line role in 2018-19, is it reasonable to hope that he has another level yet? Or is it enough to just hope for an extended run of 2018-19 type seasons?
Go Canes!
I hope the Canes can upgrade their 3C over the summer with someone with more scoring potential, leaving Walmark to mature as a great 4C with the ability to take on a top 9 role as the need arises.
There is a bit of a log jam of gritty grindy guys on the roster, also at center, including Bishop and Mckegg.
Were hoping that Necas will come into his own as a center either this coming season or the following.In my highly uneducated opinion he should probably start out on the wing in the NHL or play another half a season in Charlotte.
Then there are guys like Poturolski, who is leading the AHL playoffs in scoring and has played well all season. Do his skills as a good two-way AHL center with scoring translate to a third line center in the NHL next season? That would be pretty neat!
Whichever way the team addresses a 3C, I’d like to see Walmark centering a high quality 4th line next year.
Aho is a bit of a mystery to me. His falloff in March/playoffs was pretty staggering. I hope it was a minor nagging injury or something that is correctable. The Aho from the middle of the season is a legitimate 1C on all teams that do not have a Crosby, Matthews or McDavid (I wonder how Jack Hughes will turn out).
His performance in March/playoffs was more along the lines of a decent 2C.
I choose to believe that he was dealing with an injury and can come back as a 1C next year and play a top 6 center in this organization for another decade. He’s a good kid, super talented, and highly likeable.
I hope the team can settle on a contract for him soon. I am still concerned about TD’s tendency to drag out player negotiations. I think he should’ve been signed last fall.
This is a topic for another post, probably much closer to the start of next season, but the Metro devision is getting all the draft pick luck. It is likely to be by far the toughest devision to play next year.
The Rangers and Devils will get the two star players who have impressed pretty much everybody lately, though Hughes had a bit of a fall off in the world’s.
The Rangers also have some good prospects who are probably going to be ready.
I think the teams to beat are going to be Pit and Wasington, and I think the Islanders do not have another magic season in them like they had this year.
There’s also a chance that Columbus will be significantly weakened depending how their UFAs turn out.
The Canes are going to have to play at this year’s level or even up their anti another level to make the playoffs next year.
You draw some great comparisons between Wallmark and Rask from a skillset standpoint. One way I prefer Wallmark is in his attitude. In his interviews he always talks about winning and he seems like a really competetive guy. Rask seemed like a floater. Wallmark isn’t particularly big but elevates his physical game when the game gets intense. Plus – he’s not overpaid with a stupid contract. I’d like to see the Canes continue using Wallmark until the other centers developing show they are better.
I would be curious to see Wallmark with two very talented wingers, something like Turbo and Svech. But ultimately, I think he’s a good 4th line center but average to below average 3rd line center. The thing is though, I really like McKegg – he is perfect for RBA’s team and is incredibly fast, but with more of a physical edge than Wallmark.
Aho definitely was battling injuries at the end of the season. He carried the team on his back for 3 months – was especially impressed with his play while Staal was out. He has improved each season in the league – I think he’s only going to get better next season.
My thoughts on Wallmark is the kid has improved every year, both offensively and defensively! He was a good fourth line center, and upped his game when Staal was out! We have a reliable player in Wallmark, who still has an upside! If he is not a third line center this coming year, THEN THAT MEANS THAT OUR CENTER DEPTH…IS REALLY, REALLY GOOD!
Aho is tracking nicely as 1C. 80+ pts in his 3rd year likely means he’s just getting started, especially when you consider his current line mates production. Because of this, I would take a serious look at trying to obtain Nylander or Kapanen from TOR as an upgrade for the top lines and PP. Or perhaps TD goes all in for Laine via trade or offer sheet to play with his fellow countrymen (the forward upgrade probably won’t come via draft or free agency). Aho’s 1C stock rises even more with an upgrade like this.
If we don’t upgrade at center, or if our upgrade is a winger-only, then based on what’s in the organization Wallmark is the smart choice for 3C. He is defensively sound, but offensively light. Necas and Potsy look dynamic in the AHL, but that league is obviously not as tight defensively and after watching a few CLT games, they give up more grade A chances than what we usually see in the NHL. Which means probably a stretch to think one of them plays a key center role at the NHL level. Gut feeling says Wallmark is safe bet for now, and McKegg can rotate when needed.
I like your line of thinking re: Offer Sheet but more for Kapanen and less for Laine based on the comp and draft picks. Look at the ranges for next year:
$4,227,438-$6,341,152: 1st, 3rd
$6,341,153-$8,454,871: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
$8,454,872-$10,568,589: 2 1sts , 2nd, 3rd
I could see us paying a 1st + 3rd for Kapanen but not 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd for Laine (even though he’s exactly what our PP could use). If we’re trading, one I like is something like Fleury+2nd+ for Kapanen+. I think I’d rather have Kapanen than Nylander given our needs.
But this should be the subject of a series of posts as we approach the draft and July 1.
Most centers really improve offensively after their first season so I think Wallmart projects as a very good 3c. I think the canes will give him chance to develop in that role. I prefer a more physical guy at 4c like McKegg.
Aho is a 1C. Time will tell whether he is elite.
I think it is premature to say that Wallmark has peaked as anything after one year. He was given a lot of different types of roles to play whicn, from the standpoint of his development, is only going to help him going forward. Next season will be his opportunity to demonstrate whethe he is a 3C or just a solid 4C. But with Wallmark as a 4C that provides the opportunity for the team to find a capable 3C with a a more immediate ability to produce offense (much easier to find than a 1C) and that would be a real boon for the team. One interesting tell, however, which may or may not mean anything is that when RBA shortened the bench in Ganes 3 and 4, Wallmark was a player who’s TOI plummeted.
I had heard that Aho was suffering from an oblique muscle injury in the past month of the season and through the playoffs. He was clearly injured in some way and it showed in his play, right down to not taking face-offs. He is competitive and young – subject to injury he definitely can take it to another level over the season.
BTW – Necas will most likely come up next season as a playmaking right-wing. That has been his dominant role this season, and I am sure he has even played center since January.
I should have mentioned, Wallmark (or McKegg) at 4 blocks Roy who also plays hockey the way RBA likes and could step in an be an excellent 4C.
I would say Wallmark had a nice rookie season, but he didn’t do anything to write him in as anything but the 4C position. Wallmark’s best assets are his hockey smarts and the ability to win faceoffs. Those are both important attributes. At the same time he has quite a bit to prove to be considered a regular top 9 forward. The way things go with injuries he will get those shots here and there next season.
Aho is going to get paid. He’s the #1C and will be for a long time. Not sure about his injury status this spring, but he definitely lost his edge. There may have been physical reasons, but his confidence was certainly shaken as well. No worries. He’ll be back to form next season.
The #3C spot is the place where the Canes need the most help. When you look at the teams in the playoffs and compare their #3C to the Canes it doesn’t look good for the Canes. As has been said here before, the Canes were pretty much running two fourth lines. Improvement starts at the centre position. I don’t see help coming from Charlotte. Necas isn’t sharp enough to play center in the AHL. No way he plays centre in Carolina next year. Maybe wing. Free agency or trade is the way to go. I’m not as concerned with a “scoring” forward as I am improving the Canes down the middle.
Aho is going to get better and so will Wallmark. The question is, does it help the team more for Aho to incrementally improve to 90-100 points or for players like Wallmark to take the next step?
To me, the way the team improves the most (among current roster players) is when Svetch, Foegele, and Wallmark take a big step closer to their scoring ceilings. That balances out the roster dramatically.
Having said that, I do not expect whoever among Necas, Saarela, Kuok, Gauthier, Roy, etc., gets called up to contribute next year any more than Wallmark or Foegele did this year and probably only as much as McKegg or Saku did, so we need to look at the current roster for the most improvement.
Among Necas, Saarela, Kuokanen, Gauthier and Roy, they are all different kinds of players. If Necas, Saarela, and to a lesser extent, Gauthier, don’t show some ability to put up points at the NHL level they are of little use. Kuokanen and Roy are expected to be more defensive players and low production wouldn’t be horrible if they play well in the defensive and neutral zone.
I guess I’m not realistic about Wally… I don’t think you can say he didn’t do much. He was Staal when we had no Staal. He was the solid player you could count on that let other players fall into place. He was a rookie this year, and his mistake were minimal. He was the 2C for awhile and we thrived, more than we didn’t.
I feel he has another gear offensively…. and I look forward to seeing what he does next year. I think (hope) people are surprised!
Aho, I like him at center… again, he is 21….. this is going to be fun!
I think Wally played good most of his season, just not up to the expectations we all probably wanted. He is a smart player & if he improves next year he could probably handle the 3rd line role but would definitely be an above average 4C.
Aho played good at center but I still think he will grow into the role even more next year, but I do still like his freedom & attack mode he had on the wing.
I think we will sign a good UFA to help the top 6 if we are not trading one of our top D to accomplish this. With TVR & de Haan injured til after the start of the season probably, and Waddell saying they are trying to re-sign Faulk, I think they may be happy with the D & make a play for a UFA forward.
The question is… will it be a 1C/2C or a winger. Let’s hope they can see the need we have for a top 2 center & go that route. But if they end up going after a forward by trade or offer sheet, hopefully it will be a first line type player or someone that can play center or wing.
Necas will help with speed & skill if he puts in another good off season. I would bet he will be on the roster next season along with Bean if TVR & de Haan are not ready to go. Fleury is definitely the one to trade at this point.
With Aho, TT, NN, Svech, (new 1C/2C or top 3 forward) & pick Foegs, Necas or Williams, I’m looking forward to next year already.
I think Walmart and aho were both great. Both are young and both will get better. Walmart was so beyond expectations. He played 2C and the team was winning when Stahl was out. Who expected that. He was does what the team needed to win, mostly checking line. That is the reason he did not have more goals. He is a keeper, big time. He will only get better.
Resign everybody (hopefully Ferland). Go after a UFA top 6, preferably top 3. That’s all we need. D is fine. I think we should give potsy a try. Some of the prolific scorers are 5’10”. Don’t know if it translates to the NHL but if it does watch out. We have a lot in the AHL.
1) I like to think in terms of patterns/trends. Wallmark has improved his production almost 80% in every subsequent pro season (between his 1st and 2nd season in the SHL, then 2nd and 3rd season in the SHL, then 1st and 2nd season in the AHL). So I expect around 17g/33a from him next season. Another way I see it is comparable players. Wallmark’s trajectory so far has been very similar to both Mikael Backlund and Tomas Plekanec. So I think Wallmark definitely produces like Backlund (45-50 points per season) with an outside chance he is closer to Plekanec and can put up 60 points in his best seasons. Either a really good two-way 3C or a borderline 2C.
2) Aho is the poster child for looking at players with comparable production. I have mentioned before that Aho’s first two seasons were almost mirrors of Tavares’ first two seasons. In his third season Tavares was 31g/50a. I consider Aho a step above defensively. I think between 85-90 points next season is reasonable with at least a season or two in his future where he flirts with 100 points.