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If you are a Canes fan who is enjoying a reprieve of positivity and optimism with the strong preseason start and does not want to mess with that until regular season results clearly dictate either reinforcement or a reversion to the mean, please look away now.
To be clear, I do not in the slightest way dispute that the first three games of the preseason have been positive. Sure the wins do not really matter, but playing well always counts for more than playing poorly. I also think that the volume of competitive depth that the team has at the forward position is legitimate and a positive thing. And finally, I think even the winning counts a bit for a team that is seeking a bit of a reset and attitude change. (I wrote to that effect at the outset of my game recap for Friday’s win.)
But I also think the winning, scoring especially on the power play and almost across the board positive results have overshadowed a lurking problem that I think could prove to be an Achilles’ heel of significance.
Putting it bluntly, barring a change in trajectory (which is possible given the young players involved), I think the Carolina Hurricanes team as constructed right now has significant challenges at the center position at least to start the 2018-19 season.
In an article on August 29, I highlighted why I thought Victor Rask was more important to the Hurricanes line than his fourth line slot or 2017-18 production would indicate.
The measuring stick that many are working from when considering the group of young centers moving up to the NHL level is if they look like they can handle it. “Can handle it” is loosely defined as not being in over their head, being able to constructively learn on the job and not regularly being a significant minus. The gap is massive between “can handle it” and being capable of filling a second or third line center slot on a team that wins regularly enough when opponents trot out Crosby/Malkin, Matthews/Tavares, Backstrom/Kuznetsov, Stamkos/Johnson, Bergeron/Krejci and similar.
My optimism about how the Hurricanes will fare in matching up at the center position in the future is largely unchanged. The talent is there even if it is young. But from watching the preseason unfold thus far and watching the Hurricanes young centers in detail beyond looking for reasons to be optimistic and counting ‘wow’ plays, my early read is that the the timing of the group emerging looks more like later rather than sooner.
Assessing the group
Jordan Staal
Jordan Staal will be fine and makes for an anchor for a second line that can play and hold its own against anyone. But unless Brind’Amour goes back to the TSA line, I do not see Staal’s line generating enough offense to do more than break even and put the ball on the tee for a scoring line to win games.
Potential upside: I have Staal pegged as an elite defensive center but really no more than a third-liner in terms of generating offense, but Brind’Amour was similarly a defense first center who also scored in bunches. Can Brind’Amour help Staal similarly find a higher gear.
After that, I think it gets dicey.
Sebastian Aho
Right now, Sebastian Aho surprisingly looks uncomfortable at times even with the offensive part of the role that should be his strength. Right now, he looks really uncomfortable handling the puck in the middle of the rink and pushing into the teeth of a defense and instead prefers to carry to places on the periphery first to buy time and space to assess the situation. The result has been some hesitancy and a preference for ‘pulling over’ and looking for a safe place to hang out until the traffic clears. Setting up in his office on the boards just inside the blue line to distribute to secondary players behind the rush works okay at the wing position with a center driving the center lane, but when he heads that direction with the puck as a center it tends to make it too easy for the opposition to bottle things up at the blue line as team mates give up speed to time entry and move laterally to adjust into different lanes.
He thinks the game well enough to be competent defensively, but that part of his game will also need a bit of time to develop.
Sebastian Aho is still a great player. He has the skill set to become a great scoring line center. But indications admittedly from a small sample size are that he has a transition period in front of him and a ways to go.
Potential upside: If I was coaching the Hurricanes, I would reunite Aho and Teravainen ASAP, and here is why. As a duo, neither Aho nor Teravainen are the type to make space entering the offensive zone with speed or power. Instead, they have a knack for working together to make space and advance the puck inside the blue line with short passes and sometimes criss-crossing to create just enough time and space while the opponent sorts it out. Especially when playing with Ferland and Maenalanen what stood out was Aho’s hesitancy to gain the offensive blue line with space and pace when pushing into the defensemen. Perhaps more so than the scoring element, Aho needs Teravainen’s help to advance the puck.
Martin Necas
Martin Necas is still just incredibly raw. He is still at the 101 level in terms of center play without the puck when he ends up being F3 on the forecheck and needs to figure out how to defend the neutral zone and help the defensemen behind him. He still has a bit too much of the basic ‘when in doubt go to between the face-off circles’, ‘get back into the neutral zone’ (generically) and other basics that are still a level away from quickly sorting out specific responsibilities at the NHL level. What is more, for as much as he shows flashes of quickness and puck-handling, he really is not converting it to playmaking and scoring chances at a high rate yet. Even playing with Teravainen and a mix of capable wings, I would not say that he has looked dynamic in preseason action thus far.
At some point, the burning question becomes whether Necas is better-served trying to learn on the job at the NHL level even if he is a little raw still or if his long-term development is better served refining his game for a bit at the AHL level. Rask’s injury makes the numbers game hard not to start Necas at the NHL level, but I still lean toward doing what is best for Necas’ development. The history of committing to Lindholm at the NHL level before he earned it and then stubbornly sticking to it despite good reasons not to set his development back. Hopefully the team learned from that mistake.
Potential upside: Necas is incredibly early in his NHL experience and surely still on the steep part of his development curve. The potential exists for him to make huge strides that make him a different player in a matter of weeks. Here is hoping he is a fast learner.
Lucas Wallmark
Lucas Wallmark likely has the lowest ceiling of the group, but his game is probably also the most NHL-ready in terms of maturity and well-roundedness. He reminds me a bit of Victor Rask in the sense that he makes up for lack of foot speed by reading situations, angles and responsibilities. In that regard, when one looks specifically at early October 2018, he is probably the soundest of the three young centers in terms of two-way play, but as note above, that is significantly different than saying he is ready to line up across from elite centers and win regularly. The question with Wallmark is given his lack of foot speed or flashiness how much of his scoring/offensive ability translates to the NHL level.
Potential upside: He had an incredibly good 2017-18 season at the AHL level. The question is just whether, how much and when he can translate that to the NHL level. With a pair of skilled wings, could he transition quickly and to a high level?
Netting it out
When one puts Aho also in the ‘learning on the job’ category, this team looks really thin at the center position. It becomes Jordan Staal followed by a pick your poison type question mark. And whereas, I think teams can sometimes hide inexperience and looseness at the wing positions, that is much harder to do for centers. I do not see the team looking outside the organization to add a basic depth center though I suppose there is still a chance that a larger deal sees Faulk traded for forward help.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think there is something to my negative assessment of the Carolina Hurricanes at the center position, or do think I am looking too hard for problems based on paranoia from the long run of playoff misses?
2) What do you make of Aho’s ‘meh’ start? Would you write it off to typical preseason rustiness, or do you think he is legitimately struggling to adjust to a new position?
3) Do you think Martin Necas belongs at the NHL level to start the 2018-19 season? If so, what would make you rethink this position?
Go Canes!
1) The centers are unproven. So it is not an unreasonable concern. I heard former Cane’s head coach Muller on NHL radio this weekend make an excellent point when asked if Max Domi was ready to be an NHL center. Muller said that the game is changing such that both offense and defense rely less on the center and have become more about all 5 players being involved. Matt, you have commented after all three games that the defense has been succeeding because the forwards (not just the center) are aggressively forechecking. The style of play under RBA might make it easier for centers to be part of a team effort.
2) Not worried. The team is winning, multiple players are scoring. Aho will be fine. Reuniting with Teravainen will help–while common knowledge is that Aho elevates TT’s game, the analytics from last year showed that, if anything, it was TT making Aho and every other player more effective.
3) This is the toughest question. Necas has tons of speed and skill. However, I think he might benefit from some time in Charlotte–not so much because he is playing center as because he needs to get confident that he can dominate games offensively. That is more likely to happen in Charlotte. He will get more coaching attention in Charlotte–if the Canes start with four other rookies and a new coaching staff, then it will be hard to give any one player extra coaching.
The Canes will struggle at some point, it might be out of the gate. However, I think that is less likely given the energy and multiple scoring options that have been evident in preseason. If the Canes can get off to a strong start, winning will make everyone’s transition easier.
Necas looks physically ready and able to increase the speed of the game. He seems to struggle with some decision making but he is 19. Unless we go get a 1C, he is going to stay.
I think putting Necas between two solid wingers will help him.
Talking about centers overall, if Rod isn’t sold on Aho being a center then we need to go get a center. Call Ottawa and the Rangers about getting a center. Only having confidence in 1 center to start the season isn’t a good recipe for success.
1) The concerns are accurate. The volume of scoring we have seen in the preseason is a good sign, but it may be masking the underlying issues.
2) Aho. It is hard to say if his o-zone entry decisions are “in system” or baling out on the system, just because I haven’t seen them play enough yet. And given the theme of this article, the only way to determine the system is probably to watch Jordan Staal. Aho looked good at center last year after a successful run at WJC, so I suspect with him it is rustiness.
3) Necas. Looks more raw at this point. I didn’t see any of his body of work in the Czech league. Whatever happened there made the canes coaching staff and management think he was NHL ready, so I really have to defer to them. However based on what I have seen he has a long way to go. Some may simply be confidence, some may be a new system, some may be faster competition, but giving credit to our scouting, he just may be rusty too. I feel overly optimistic attributing too much to rust, so really it is probably a “wait and see” at this point. My hope is that Rask comes back soon enough that Necas has sufficient time to get his feet under him, or it is enough time to realize he would benefit from development in the AHL. Rask being out is a great opportunity for him, and he seems like a kid who will make the most of it.
Center has been a vacuum for the team for quite awhile, and your concerns are valid, IMO! I hope that the coach /GM see that and go find a center OR TWO!
Wings and Dmen are pretty decent, but the center is the glue to make it work. Not a problem to ignore, but my confidence level of MGMT doesn’t make me sanguine…???
I would suggest Martinook is in the running to be the 4th line center at the start of the season. He has played well from what I have heard and seen. He, McGinn, and DiGiuseppe would make up a strong 4th line to play in all circumstances.
If Aho is our biggest concern the team is in good shape. Aho is super talented and super smart. It’s preseason and a revolving door of wingers will get sorted out in the next few games. Last night I watched the Oilers game and they were talking about that super talented Finnish team in juniors a few years ago. Laine and Puljujarvi were on the team. The first line center was Aho. He will be fine.
Staal is Staal. Everyone knows the strengths he brings.
Necas is the third line center for now. He is figuring out new city, new team, new ice and thats a lot for a 19 year old. Yet his speed and passing are things that can’t be taught. At times he, Foegele and TT looked like the best line on the team. At other times they looked disjointed. Sounds about right for preseason. Necas will get there and I think rather quickly.
In three preseason games the canes have out scored the opponents 15-3. I got it, it’s preseason, but the other team wants to win as well. The new centers are doing ok and excelling in some cases.
I don’t think you are being too pessimistic about the Center position: 3 of 4 are unproven at the NHL level. Full stop. We saw what happened with this same issue on defense the last two years and it didn’t particularly go as planned.
These first three games have been very ragged – less about systems and more about personal skill – so we aren’t seeing the Aho we’ll see once the lines solidify and the season starts. He’s likely to wind up with TT, who looks fine to me even if he’s been quiet so far, and a Zykov who’s even better this year; that line should be fine even if a little overmatched against some (but not all) teams.
Necas is young and exciting but obviously raw. He needs seasoning but I’m not sure the team has the luxury of sending him to CLT – there simply isn’t a better option on the roster right now. He is going to need to play in a very sheltered role until he figures more out – actually, I think that’s fine, because I believe Wallmark can handle at least a 3C role with that level of skill on his wings, at least until Rask comes back. It’s not ideal but not awful.
There is no question that inexperience at Center is THE risk area on the team; to me, the compensating factors are a much improved Blue Line (which has been excellent and should contribute more offense) and better goaltending (which couldn’t get any worse than last year).
It really could go either way.
I’m still stuck on the Nick Shore bandwagon. Give him a PTO and sign him to a cheap contract as a security policy.
I’m not on the trade Faulk train, rather trade JVR and one of the forward prospects for a top 6 center, maybe even throw in some picks. That being said, not sure any top 6 centers are available.
I think Necas would be better positioned to succeed with less pressure.
Man, the Canucks scored big with Elias Petersen, that kid is insane (based on pre season).
These are all valid concerns. Although I have been pleased with the effort and developments in the preseason games I am concerned about hanging our hats on 4 – 6 “freshmen” to step in and provide the offensive production we need. Let’s face it, putting the puck in the net has been a challenge the last few seasons.
It is exciting to see the talent that we have with Necas, Zykov, Foegelle (sp), Wallmark, etc… but would hate to see the franchise put any player in the NHL too early. Honestly, I cannot answer that question, but trust Rod’s leadership and judgment in this regard. Hopefully Rod has management’s ear.
Overall I have been pleased with the additions to the blue line over the summer, but firmly believe we need one more piece — a veteran NHL center. It remains to be seen if we will get that kind of player either via a Faulk trade or otherwise.
Go Canes!
Center concerns are very valid. I wonder if there’s a sleeper choice in McKegg. I think I recall reading he played 3C for a while with Florida. Nothing to write home about from point production, but maybe serviceable. Pretty sure he was playing C with Checkers. Put him on a line, call it 4th line, and then when Rask is ready to play, he gets sent down.
If not, maybe as mentioned above, it’s a trade for a C. Rags have a bunch of young talent. Do you try to move a Pesce or a Fleury/McKeown type deal with them to get the C help you need? I know most talk has been regarding Faulk,but his preseason play maybe allows for a Pesce move to get that C. Hell, maybe Pesce for Nylander up in Toronto could make sense. I love Pesce, but we all know we’re going to have to give good to get good.
Thus far in the pre-season the Canes have 15 GF, 3 GA for a team +12. When have we last seen a double digit + in team +/-? Key word: pre-season. All our pre-season concerns should remain. Strength at center, strength in goal will remain question marks until at least game 10 of the regular season.
1. You concerns are well-expressed and have validity. My supervisor at work uses the phrase, “Never not be afraid”. You always have to watch out and understand what could go wrong – preferably well before it goes wrong.
We have largely seen other teams’ preseason JV units – when the vets start showing up (this week?) we will have a better idea. After October 4 it starts to get dicey.
2. There is excellent chemistry between Aho and Turbo – RBA actually said that a week or two ago in suggesting he wasn’t going to be pairing them to start preseason because they already know what they have with them. Necas has benefited from centering Turbo, and we have learned something of Aho at center when Turbo is not there.
Aho has proven himself to be a much better player at center when there is another high-quality playmaker (as opposed to scorer) at his wing. Given the synergy between Aho and Turbo I cannot imagine they won’t be on the same line.
3. I have admitted to being a Necas fan-boy! LOL! I can only say I hope he is NHL ready and that he has a strong enough core to bounce back from his learning curve errors (and learn from them). I think if he really flails he will see dev time in Charlotte, but only under that circumstance.
I share the concern, particularly with Necas. In the second period of the last game Washington really tightened things up. Necas was not good. He is not all that strong on his skates in spite of whatever weight he put on over the past year. He struggled to win any board battles and gave pucks away trying to skate through multiple players. He needs more physical wingers to help his line be competitive on the boards. He also needs to smarten up and not try to do too much by himself.
I do think it would be best if Necas spent some time in Charlotte, but I doubt that is going to happen. I do think Wallmark will be able to slide up to 3C. If Necas needs to miss a few shifts Wallmark can take his spot and Martinook could be used as a center if necessary.
From what I’ve seen Wallmark should be a superior player to Rask. While Wallmark isn’t fast, he isn’t a poor skater either. Neither Brind’Amour nor Francis were fast. Rask is slow and his edges aren’t the best. Also, Wallmark actually makes offensive plays and seems to more of a true centerman’s skill set. Rask has a nice shot, but he did little for me as far as creating offense. Wallmark’s defensive abilities seem OK so far. I need to watch that a bit more.
Hopefully Aho is just a slow starter…again…as opposed to struggling with the center position.