If the Carolina Hurricanes enter the 2016-17 with an opening day roster built from players already signed by the team, the team’s total salaries will be about $54 million and its cap hit about $56 million both well below the salary cap ceiling of $73 million.
The task of building a playoff-capable NHL team for up to $17 million less than other teams will spend is challenging but not impossible in today’s NHL.
Building a good hockey team on the cheap requires avoiding players whose value is significantly less than what they are being paid and combining that with having some players who are worth significantly more than their salary.
There are 3 basic ways to build a good team at a discount to its fair cost:
Good players on entry-level contracts
The best way to beat the big spenders is to have players on entry-level contracts who are playing like a top half of the lineup player. If they put up big stats, some of the top players salary cap hits are inflated by performance bonuses, but the run of the mill entry-level contract sees a player play for less than $1 million per season. If those players are merely serviceable third line players, it is not a bad thing, but the savings is minimal compared to an older free agent depth forward who might be signed for $1-2 million. The real savings come when a player on an entry-level contract can be a top 4 defenseman or top 6 forward.
Defense: The Carolina Hurricanes are positioned to do incredibly well in this regard over the next few years. All of Jaccob Slavin, Noah Hanifin and Brett Pesce all have 2 more years remaining on their entry-level contracts all at less than $1 million per year. Depending on how things go with the development of these players and also Haydn Fleury, Roland McKeown, Ryan Murphy and Trevor Carrick, it is possible that the 2017-18 Hurricanes blue line features Justin Faulk and 5 players making less than $1 million per season and be 1 of the strengths of the team.
Forward: Sebastian Aho, who is widely expected to make the NHL team this season, has 3 years remaining on his entry-level contract. Teuvo Teravainen and Phil Di Giuseppe will similarly be playing for less than $1 million for 1 more year in 2016-17. Depending on how well those players play and where they slot, that could make for 3 young players on ELCs playing in the top 9 for less than $1 million per season.
The formula: There are 2 primary factors that drive success in this regard. The first is using at least the 7 draft picks allotted for each NHL draft and ideally an extra pick here and there. With failed playoff chases, Francis aggressively converted soon to be free agent players into extra draft picks in his first 2 years as GM. Those extra selections are just starting to pay rewards.
The other key factor is leaning toward patience with regard to boosting recent draftees to the NHL level. Ron Francis has used the word ‘overripe’. The basic idea is burn very few entry-level contract years while the player is still just learning and not significantly better than an inexpensive veteran. By pushing these players down and having the ELC ‘slide’, the chance of having a player who is significantly better then his entry-level contract salary increases. I wrote about the entry-level contract slide and related things at the bottom of this article. Hindsight being 20/20, I think in the case of Elias Lindholm, pushing him up to the NHL in his draft year yielded minimal extra performance relative to his inexpensive ELC. Had the Hurricanes left him in Sweden for 2 more years, he would still have 2 years remaining on his original contract for less than $1 million per season. This situation could come into play this fall for Julien Gauthier when management will need to decide if it is worth burning 1 of his 3 entry-level contract years in 2016-17 or if they would prefer to send him back to juniors and keep all 3 cheap years intact.
Reference: Teuvo Tervainen, Sebastian Aho, Phil Di Giuseppe, Jaccob Slavin, Noah Hanifin, Brett Pesce.
Bargain free agent finds
Another tool for building a good NHL roster for significantly less than $73 million is to find bargains in free agency. This is hard to do. In free agency, many top-tier players actually sign for more than they are worth because that is what it takes to win the bidding war. But it is possible to add players from free agency who outperform their contract.
In his first 3 summers (counting the current one which obviously is not over yet) as GM, Ron Francis has not been very active in free agency, instead preferring to use the team’s prospects and a couple trades to build the roster.
But this summer, Francis made 2 free agent additions. First, he added Victor Stalberg who projects to be a depth forward likely to play on the fourth line. Second, he added Lee Stempniak who will play somewhere in the top 9 forwards and seems destined for a look on a Skinner/Rask line that could be the team’s top scoring line.
At $2.5 million per year for 2 years coming off a season with 51 points and with advanced stats that rate positively, Stempniak figures to be an attempt by Francis to find a bargain in the free agent pool without taking significant risk. Ward’s new contract for a $3.3 million middle ground could also be considered an attempt to spend less than the premium price but get much more value than is paid.
Reference: Lee Stempniak, Cam Ward.
Bargain contracts on internally-developed players
The final tool for building a $73 million team for more like $55-56 million involves getting internally-developed players under contract for less than they are worth. There is an element of being a shrewd negotiator, but the bigger driver might be strong decision-making on when to take calculated risks in locking up players before their price escalates.
The idea is lock a player in at a reasonable price before they become a higher caliber player who will cost more. To do these deals, a GM must be willing to pay a bit more than a player might be worth right now to get a price that has the potential to be significantly less than the player might be worth later if he continues to grow as a player.
Victor Rask’s contract last week is a prime example. Francis might have been able to push Rask’s contract down a tiny bit had he decided to do a 2-year bridge deal. Such a deal avoids the risk of committing to a young player long-term but adds the risk that he costs significantly more 2 years later if he has 2 great seasons.
Hits: Justin Faulk is probably the best example of a deal like this that has already paid dividends. Just prior to Francis taking the reins as GM, Faulk was signed to a long-term deal for $4.8 million per season that now looks like a bargain compared to other comparable players’ deals.
Misses: Both were short-term deals, but last summer Ron Francis re-upped with both Eddie Lack and Elias Lindholm a year early, before their previous contract had expired. Neither player had a great 2015-16 campaign and could arguably have been signed for a little less this summer had Francis waited. In the case of Lack, one could reasonably argue that had Francis not already committed to 2 more years of Lack that he might instead have gone a different direction with the second goalie slot this summer.
Reference: Justin Faulk, Victor Rask and to some degree Jeff Skinner and Jordan Staal.
General approach and early assessment
Though it will take awhile to yield results, the single biggest thing that I like about Francis’ tenure as Hurricanes GM is his commitment to building the pool of prospects. Having a steady stream of good but inexpensive young players constantly rising up to fill roster spots at a discount is the purest way to build a good but inexpensive NHL team. Simply avoiding the high-risk game of signing top-end free agents and the big mistakes that often come from this game also goes a long way toward avoiding bad contracts that decrease a team’s performance relative to its cost.
Go Canes!
I think the Cam Ward signing was to give cap and roster flexibility when one of Ned, Booth, and Altshuller are ready to jump to the NHL, and when Slavin, Pesce, and Hanafin are due raises after their ELCs expire.
Canes are picking out the best possible knife to bring to the gun fight.
It looks like Francis is masterfully engineering an 11th place team. They don’t look like they can score, and they should have mediocre at best goal-tending. With no top end forwards on the roster or in the system, it’s tough to get excited about the savvy smaller moves.
that’s what they said in 2005 and we know how that ended!!
As with most fans who desperately want to return to the playoffs, there is a part of me that wants (or maybe wanted) to see Francis do more for building the 2016-17 roster.
But at the same time, there is a part of me that understands why we hit this drought and absolutely loves Francis’ willingness to stay the course and avoid temptations for quick (and oh by the way risky) fixes to expedite things.
What do you think will be different next year? FA’s will always be expensive, guys like Hall or Johanson will always cost Faulk or Hanifin, and non-top 3 picks will always be long shots to be the answer.
What’s the path from organization loaded with pretty good players to a team that can compete with teams icing Crosby/Malkin/Kessel?
That’s what hurricanes fans have been saying every summer since 2006, and we’ve seen how that worked out.
But it’s not really the same anyway. In 2006, people ignored the signing of Stillman, Whitney, and Cullen because they were lazy, I guess.
Stillman had 80 in 81, was an all-star, and 7th in the league in scoring. Lee Stempniak is no Cory Stillman.
Why do all RF apologists buy the unproven assumption that he can’t spend MORE money? Being cheap is fine when you dont worry about excelling… when trying to beat 29 other teams, however, you become the KC Athletics of old (now Royals…and not so cheap).
You get what you pay for!
And goalies (the one player who usually plays complete games, with only one BU), is clearly much more important than any one individual forward yet RF SAVED money?? …keeping TWO underperforming keepers! Where is the logic in this? RF wasted money buying out Wis, when if he’d spent the same money on a GOOD GOALIE this team could win!
I’m really finding all this ‘Woe is us’ Canes talk to be quite humorous. We have a team that was fighting for a playoff spot through April last season, and we are CLEARLY better right now than that team.
Our big acquisitions last year were a winger and defenseman who are both sitting in unrestricted free agency right now. Stempniak, while by no means a savior, is still easily better than Versteeg, Nash, Terry or Gerbe. Aho is definitely a step up from the latter two, maybe 3-4 of that list. Finally we have a fourth line that actually looks like a serviceable fourth line instead of one consisting of players who couldn’t break the top 6.
We might not score that much, and no we do not have Lundqvist or even Fleury in goal, but barring a sophomore slump from the Hanifin, Pesce and Slavin trio, we are quickly becoming one of the better defensive teams in hockey. There was simply not a free agent on the market that was not going to be overpriced, overage, or overrated, and while I still would have loved to see Taylor Hall don the Canes gear, the fact of the matter is, we are FAR more likely to be rolling out a playoff-competitive hockey team on Day 1, regardless. This Canes defeatism just reeks of a lack of attention to how winning teams are being built in today’s NHL.