Two seasons ago, I was early in noticing that Justin Faulk’s level of play defensively had fallen off. Initially, the decline in his play was overshadowed by this scoring and to some degree the fact that his trajectory was supposed to be that of a up and coming young defenseman.
With his contract due to end after the 2019-20 season and the off-season addition of two veteran defensemen, I predicted that Faulk would be traded this summer as part of a series of moves to revamp the roster. All indications are that the team tried to do exactly that. Faulk was a regular in the rumor mill all summer and seemingly was spared only because there was not a good return to be had.
Faulk started the 2018-19 season in his familiar position in a top 4 defense role except with a new partner in newly-acquired Calvin de Haan. Be it due to help from de Haan or due to Faulk just playing at a higher level, Faulk has rebounded nicely in 2018-19. His scoring has been modest, but significantly his defensive play has improved significantly such that he is back to being a legitimate top 4 defenseman.
Faulk’s improvement could swing someone one of two ways. First, one’s inclination could be not to trade Faulk now that he is playing well. But in my opinion, I think Faulk’s elevated play just represents the perfect opportunity to sell high on Faulk, relatively speaking at least.
Why I think this is the case is the subject of today’s Daily Cup of Joe.
Justin Faulk’s contract situation
Faulk is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2019-20 season. As such, if he is not part of the team’s long-term plans, he is on the clock for being traded to net something in return when he departs.
The Carolina Hurricanes’ salary structure
The primary reason that I figured Justin Faulk would be traded was his level of play defensively prior to this season. But the team’s moves last summer also had a big impact on where Faulk fits specifically into the team’s financial structure. With the addition of Calvin de Haan and Dougie Hamilton this past summer, the Hurricanes are effectively paying five top 4 defensemen. I actually debated whether the Hurricanes could make this blue line-heavy budget work recently, but especially if the team continues to spend less than the salary cap, it could prove challenging to build a strong enough forward group with some budget shifted to defense.
The logjam on the right side
Right now, the Hurricanes have four right shot defensemen in their lineup. Faulk is one of three top 4 defensemen with Pesce and Hamilton, and the team also has a solid third pairing veteran Trevor van Riemsdyk. Trading a right shot defenseman would only decrease the bottom of the depth chart but has the potential to make an addition for the top half of the forward roster.
Adam Fox
Related to the logjam on the right side, trading Faulk or another right shot defenseman could help the Hurricanes get Adam Fox under contract this summer. Fox, who was obtained in the trade with Calgary last summer, is having a phenomenal year offensively with Harvard. Part of the reason that Fox was available in that trade was because the Flames had been unable to get Fox to sign an NHL contract. Fox seemed to be on a path to graduate from college and become an unrestricted free agent. Fox is a junior right now, so if the Hurricanes are going to get him under contract, it would probably be this summer. Because of the teams of the collective bargaining agreement, the contract for a prospect like Fox is mostly fixed, so the Hurricanes really cannot entice Fox too much financially (except getting paid sooner). Without the ability to change financial terms, the biggest thing for Fox is seeing a fast path to the NHL. With four proven NHL defensemen on the roster include three top 4 right shot defensemen, the situation does not look promising for Fox which could impact his willingness to sign an NHL contract with the Hurricanes this upcoming summer. Trading Faulk could have some effect on Fox’s willingness to sign with the Hurricanes.
The need to improve at forward
The Hurricanes are playing well right now and winning which overshadows most deficiencies, but I still think the team could benefit significantly from adding another top 6 forward, ideally a playmaking center. Adding top half of the roster players in the NHL is not easy. Competition is intense in the free agent market such that most of the players signed their are overpriced. And not many teams will trade a higher-end player without getting a good roster player in return. As such, Faulk’s resurgence gives the Hurricanes and extra right shot defenseman and with it the potential to use a right shot defenseman as a bargaining chip.
The risk with Faulk
As much as I like the way Faulk has improved during the 2018-19 season, the risk-averse part of me thinks that the team should pounce on this opening. In my opinion, the biggest issue with Faulk during his struggles the past two seasons was a decrease in his quickness, acceleration and short gap coverage. He looks a step quicker to me in 2018-19. That is a positive, but I still think that Faulk lives close to the edge of being a step slow quickness-wise especially as he gets older. That is what has him in a different category than the other defensemen in my opinion and is part of why I do not just lump all of the right shot defensemen with a willingness to trade any of them.
Trying to make a hockey deal
Based on his play so far in 2018-19, I would not be desperate to trade Faulk to the highest bidder if the bids are not great. I would only be looking trade him in a deal that nets a good return. Fortunately for the Hurricanes, we are reaching that point in the season when defensemen are at a premium and right shot defensemen usually even more so.
I would make Faulk the centerpiece of offers that aim to add a forward with term on his contract.
Toronto continues to be interesting. The Maple Leafs ideally want to add a power forward to their lineup for the upcoming playoffs. The team has also been trying to upgrade its blue line for a couple years now. Could the Hurricanes pull off a blockbuster that sends both Justin Faulk and Micheal Ferland to Toronto? Could something like Faulk, Ferland and 5th-round draft pick net Kasperi Kapanen, a first-round pick and a medium grade prospect?
If Jonathan Huberdeau is truly available, I call Florida with Faulk and a second-round draft pick and consider adding modest futures to this deal until it gets done.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been tied to the Hurricanes here and there for a couple years now. Could there be a deal to be had there?
Etc.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Where do you land on selling high on Justin Faulk versus just keeping him and watching what happens down the stretch?
2) If you are willing to trade Faulk, who would you be targeting in such a deal?
Go Canes!
1) Trading Faulk is more likely after the season because 2/3 of the market is in buying mode which is not hockey trade mode. Hockey trades will happen in the off-season. I don’t see any of the teams in the playoff picture trading a roster player.
2) Glad you mentioned Ferland. My perspective is ambivalent. There is a strong case for keeping him as a self-rental. However, he really doesn’t fit past this season. The self-rental argument is important because the Canes really need to make the playoffs to end the drought. However, the bigger picture is that the Canes are building a long-term contender. That is where Ferland doesn’t fit very well. Thinking about the lines for next season. First line: Niederrieter/Aho/X; Second line: Svechnikov/X/Teravainen; Third line: Martinook/Staal/X. I presume Williams is re-signed for 1-2 years. If he can keep up his play then he makes much more sense on the first line than third as that line will be the line to take on the toughest defensive assignments. I presume the organization wants Necas to enter the lineup next season. He is either the 2nd line C or eased into the lineup on a “scoring” fourth line.
The one scenario in which Ferland fits is if the Canes can acquire a two-way scoring winger like Saad. It also would require a commitment to Wallmark as a “second” line center, which I think is the correct move as Wallmark’s trajectory is similar to Frans Nielsen or possibly Tomas Plekanec. Then something like NN/Aho/Williams; Svech/Wallmark/TT; Ferland/Necas/Saad (giving the rookie two veterans–one to defend him and one to bail him out defensively). The challenge is this has Staal centering a defense only line, likely with Martinook and McGinn or Foegele. It also means that McKegg is probably claimed off waivers.
I am all for having three offensively-focused lines. But it requires Faulk returning the right forward and would increase the salary significantly, which I am not sure management is willing to do at this point.
Given the much more likely scenario of a third-line with Staal and the current fourth line, keeping Ferland means one of two things: 1) not re-signing Williams; 2) not providing Necas an opportunity to succeed (remember that entering this season some were arguing that Necas has a higher upside than Aho).
For those who think Ferland’s style of play is important–on the current road trip the Canes were outhit four times (in Pittsburgh the hits were equal) and the one game where Ferland dropped his gives the Canes lost. As Matt says results matter.
I have said numerous times that I love Ferland’s story and I can’t think of a single player who more deserves a big payday. Still I think re-signing him doesn’t make sense unless the team is willing to spend significantly more money.
I think the primary reason for trading Faulk would be to open up space on the right side for Fox or Jake Bean (Jake has been playing really well lately, see the quality Checkers updates article).
We all know that great play at lower levels does not necessarily translate to the NHL, so it is a gamble and likely a temporary step backwards as the player gets used to NHL level competition.
If it wasn’t for that I honestly don’t see much reason for trading faulk unless the right deal presents itself, at least not by this year’s deadline. He is playing better, he has one year left on his contract, D men are getting more expensive and this team needs to win soon, not groom players for success with other teams.
So, yes, Faulk for a young forward or Faulk + pick + maybe a roster playe for a top 6 forward could work.
Necas lack of AHL success is a bit of a concern for me. I think the team cannot rely on him as a surefire super center yet, I think considering him in a trade conversation is not out of the picture, and relying on him to be a top 6 forward next year is overly optimistic. Hopefully he is more of an RnH than a Yakipov, but hype and draft position does not translate to automatic success and we can’t be blinded by that over actual results.
We still see the potential but progress has been a lot less than our collective imagination predicted (mine included).
I think Jordan staal is the largest concern re role, salary and fit.
This team has done much better without him, his faceoff acumen is elite, but it has not translated to much success, and now he has lingering injury problems.
I just don’t see him on a future Hurricanes team, not even next year.
As always, I want to be proven wrong with negative comments on players, I cheer for them as much as anybody.
Pardon my tendencies to get off subject. Conner Brickley has been called up from the AHL by the Rangers. Connor is the answer to the trivia question, “Who did the Vegas Knights select from the Carolina Hurricanes in their expansion draft.”
Lol, that question would have left me utterly stumped.
Faulk’s inconsistent, uninspired play last season combined with the fact the “committee” has been unable to find a suitable trading partner for Faulk suggests there are questions across the league as to his “market value”.
Conceptually I really like the idea of packaging Ferland and Faulk for a very attractive return. Realistically, finding the team before the deadline that wants both players and will give the appropriate return will prove very difficult. My wager is Ferland is a “self rental” and Faulk’s play all season will increase his value and make him the center of an off season trade we will like.
Matt, I appreciate your writing… especially for a team that we love! That’s awesome and you rock… Just my opinion and this is intended to be Constructive. So please, don’t take offense. I stop reading anytime I see one of these:
Remember I said this….
Remember when I predicted this…
I was the first to notice this…
Hey d-rob…Thank your for the candid feedback.
My intent with that is to try to tie articles and or longer-term discussions together, but I can see where the choice of wording could be annoying.
I will try to be better about connecting things with better word choices, and I would appreciate if you will keep me honest if I miss.
Faulk’s value is higher, but I assume most teams would prefer Pesce or Hamilton. I think Faulk can pry a top 6 wing more than a 2C, and that may be part of the hold up. I think if we deal anyone at the deadline it’s TVR. Faulk would likely be an offseason move.
The two biggest decisions for next year are at center ice and goaltending. It would be difficult to fathom Wallmark, Staal and Necas as 2C/3C/4C. I feel Wallmark has proven to be a solid 3C defensive center, so I think a decision needs to be made surrounding Staal and Necas as neither appears to be a great 2C scoring option. We have some wings in CLT who may be ready next season, and Necas may be one who moves to wing anyway. So I think best course is to spend money where it’s needed most, a veteran 2C and starting goaltender (not sold on Mrazek being THE guy, Mac is at best a backup option, and Ned is a wild card).
livefree. I don’t have that hard a time seeing Wallmark as the 2C next season. He is playing really well–except on the scoresheet. Wallmark’s underlying stats are already close to a 2C (according to Hockey-Reference he is in the top 10 in the league for expected +/- and Corsica has him second in the league behind Eric Karlsson in expected goals added (of course the Canes dominate this category). More than that is Wallmark’s own history. He has added approximately 70% more production each year of his career. This was true his second and third years in the SHL and his second year in the AHL. My belief (others have said this, so it is not my original thought) is that he focuses on being defensively responsible. Once he has proven he has shown he isn’t overmatched against other centers, he loosens up and his offense follows. I expect his stats will look something like 16g/32a next season. Then I think he is a consistent 55 point center. Given his defense, that will do at 2C unless Necas becomes a 70 point producer. At the end of next season I will likely annoy d-rob by posting: “Remember I said Wallmark would end around 50 points.”
CT, I hope you are right. I like Wallmark a lot and he plays the game the right way. As you say his scoring needs to pick up to be considered a 2C, and if that were to occur down the road it would be a huge boost having a team of mostly “home grown” centers.
The Oilers are 2 mill over the cap with Faulk’s old defense partner returning from injury.
Maybe try to pry Puljajarvi + Talbot lose for Faulk.
still does not address the second line center, I stick with Toffoli as a good price/term guy who can play musical chairs with Walmark/Necas for second line center.
Walmark is a heady player, he’s got some brains and could definitely continue to impress.
I am late to the party here but there is a real incentive for Fox to sign (and he can sign as early as March) and that the threat of a lockout in 2020-21. Why would he choose to come out in a year in which he sould not be paid.
For the record, a little birdie at the arena told me this is the plan and thhat Fox’s team is amenable and we can expect to see him in a Canes or Checkers uniform for the last 3-4 weeks of the regular season.
Re: Fox….if he gets something like 10 games at the NHL level, he burns a year of his ELC. The Hurricanes are the only team that can offer him that opportunity….getting to UFA sooner.
Justin Faulk and Micheal Ferland are basically in the same category, only a year apart. If we contend again next season, we’ll be faced with the exact same “own rental” situation. I believe both would be mistakes should we not move them. But I think it is critical to move them and not lose the assets we’d accrue.
My guess is that we see Justin Faulk moved at the draft, but probably not before as that would be a pretty significant alteration in team chemistry.
Fox’s quickest path to a UFA is to wait until March 2020 to come out. But to do so means he comes out right before a probably work stoppage of uncertain length.
But his quickest way to an NHL payday is sign next month.
If he can burn a year of his 3-year ELC this season he’s only 2 years from a potentially big payday and has time to assert himself as an NHL talent.
If he enters the NHL fresh out of college with no professional experience, that’s a bit of a gamble for him. Teams may not be interested in handing a big paycheck to a kid that has never played a professional hockey game.