I touched on this topic recently but wanted to go into it in more depth. Hence, today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers the case and place for Victor Rask.
Acknowledging the offensive struggles of the 2017-18 season
A starting point is acknowledging that the 2017-18 season in total was not a good one for Victor Rask. He had too many stretches of invisible, and his meager 31 points in 71 games as a top 9 forward just do not cut it especially considering his $4 million salary.
So the aim of this article is not to defend Victor Rask’s 2017-18 season in total.
But also recognizing Rask’s ‘high floor’
But for as much as Rask struggled to produce offensively, the defensive part of Rask’s game which is not exciting but is generally sound functions independently of his offensive game. The result is that even when his offensive production was spiraling downward, it did not creep into other areas of his game with gambling to score more or just playing with defensive issues that stemmed from struggles on the offensive side of the puck.
The result was that despite underperforming offensively, Rask’s line still held its own 5-on-5. Over 71 games of not enough offense, Rask was still even in terms of plus/minus which ranks only behind the dynamic duo of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen who were the only plus forwards (not counting short-timers Zykov and Foegele).
When you net it out, even the struggling version of Rask’s game tends to tread water because of decent two-way play that seems to be unaffected by his offense.
Slotting Victor Rask into the 2018-19 lineup
The case for unloading him
Worth noting first is that Rask is pricey at $4 million per year for what he did offensively in 2017-18. His 31 points are high for a fourth line center but low for a third line center at a premium price. In addition, his defense leaning is somewhat a duplicate of what Jordan Staal excels at. As such, Rask is definitely a player who could be expendable this summer. If another team values him as a capable, young top 9 center and looks past his down 2017-18 season offensively and his $4 million salary and is willing to trade comparable value for Rask, I would do it.
The argument that he could be a complement/what the Canes need
But if the only option is to trade him for pennies on the dollar and or eat salary to make even that happen, I am inclined to keep Rask. Once you get past salary, I actually think he could fit really well in terms of balancing the forward group if things go in the direction that they are headed right now.
First, let’s assume that Sebastian Aho remains at the center position. That gives the team a higher-end offensive center which it desperately needs, but it also comes in the form of a 20-year old player who offensive game is much more mature than his two-way acumen especially at center where he has limited experience. Let’s also assume that Martin Necas seizes a lineup slot in preseason. That makes for another center who is even greener in terms of experience and similarly is more advanced offensively than defensively. In this scenario, Jordan Staal is a nice complement to provide a shutdown option to eat up as many of the tougher minutes as possible and also make it possible to use Necas line and to a lesser degree Aho’s line opportunistically. In such a scenario, I also think Rask fits very nicely as a fourth center who provides two-way stability and defensive balance. Rask’s strength as a read/react type center could fit nicely with young forechecking legs like Foegele’s and others. And maybe late in games where the Canes have a lead, Brind’Amour shortens the bench a bit in favor of solid defense such that Rask gets heavier minutes in those situations and is flanked by more experience.
I could see a scenario whereby Necas and Rask center 3A and 3B lines whose ice time is dictated by how well they are playing and to some degree situation. And especially with the potential for a bunch of youth to find its way into the 2018-19 lineup, Rask’s balanced play could be a nice complement as long as he does not become a drag offensively.
Netting it out
I would not be against trading Victor Rask if reasonable value can be returned in a trade, but coming off a down 2017-18 and with a $4 million salary, that seems unlikely. If that is the case, I actually like Rask as a fourth line center if the youth movement sees Aho and Necas as center in 2018-19. In that role, he could be a good complementary defensive center that complements the inexperience and offense-leaning youngsters.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Would you be looking to trade Rask this summer? If so, how aggressively (meaning taking a discount to reflect his sub-par 2017-18 and possibly also retaining salary) would you be looking to just cut ties, free up a roster spot and move on?
2) Do others agree that Victor Rask’s offensive and defensive play seem to be decoupled such that his sub-par 2017-18 season offensively had minimal if any impact on his two-way play?
3) What do you think of the assertion that a lineup with Aho and Necas each centering a line actually makes Rask’s skill set a nice complementary fit?
Go Canes!
1) This is dependent on if the front office is committed to Jeff Skinner. If the organization is willing to trade Skinner for a good-skating, defensively solid LW (RNH anyone), then keeping Rask makes sense.
2) Yes–and given the correct situation his offense will return.
3) I think it is a true assertion. In fact, without any trades, Rask’s best role is as the LW to bring stability to Necas/Svechnikov. Because I still like Lindholm at center with Williams.
Given no trades (which I think is highly unlikely):
Zykov/Aho/TT
Rask/Necas/Svechnikov
Foegele or Martinook/Staal/McGinn
Skinner/Lindholm/Williams
Outside of the end of games, it makes the most sense to play all four lines as evenly as possible at even strength. Rask’s skillset is a strong complement if the centers are as above.
Rask has to be one of the biggest disappointments on the Canes. Signed early to a big contract he has continued to disappoint. He is supposed to be a high hockey IQ player with skill to balance out his skating deficiencies. Unfortunately, his offensive game has devolved and he has been in “chateau bow-wow” a few times including a healthy scratch.
This guy is in desperate need of a fresh start. That may be here with the Canes and a new coaching staff, or it may be in another town if they can find someone who wants him.
If Rask buys in to what Coach Brind’Amour is asking he could make a nice rebound. I think a lot of guys may have been beaten down by Bill Peters. A breath of fresh air may allow Rask to flourish. If he continues to be a guy that you question his effort I would bury him in Charlotte. His 2017-18 game was nothing Lucas Wallmark couldn’t do for $3M less.
Trading a borderline NHL forward with a $4M salary isn’t easy. But, if the Canes are willing to take on similar or more salary they may be able to do it. I believe the Canes are in need of a veteran presence on the blue line. There are probably a few older defensemen that make a lot of dough that are past their prime, but their leadership could make it worth the cost for the Canes. If Rask can be traded that might be a direction to look.
If we tried to move Rask to Charlotte we would almost assuredly lose him on waivers – there is definitely interest in the league in him.
At $4M per year for four more years? Ummmm….Ok.
I think so. He is known in the league and teams out there would take chances.
If Rask goes back to no effort/no heart, let ’em have him.
I’d keep Rask unless he becomes part of a larger package (with no salary retained) to upgrade any one of offense, defense or goaltending. That said, I honestly don’t see the team retaining salary anywhere (even Darling most likely returns as a 1b backup and we seek a new starter via trade).
The net value I feel is that Rask can anchor a 4th line with experience and potential to fill in on the other 3 lines due to injury or otherwise needed. That’s my take at least.
1) He is one that can be traded for sure, but we would be trading him at his time of minimum value. Rask had shoulder surgery last offseason and shoulder surgery again this off season. He may be a high floor high ceiling player with injury problems, a mixed bag of chips.
2) yes decoupled. His shoulder problems impact his offensive game more than the defensive game.
3) if Aho and Necas stay healthy, Rask is tradable.
Honestly, I don’t see the injuries as an excuse. Once a shoulder is injured it is more likely to be injured again. If that’s the case he may be damaged goods. An oft injured player that can’t play to his potential is really no better than a player that refuses to play to his potential. It’s cold, but reality.
I have been an advocate for Rask the last few weeks on this site. No need to change direction now. I see three options for Rask this summer.
1. Trade him- I don’t like this option because the canes would be selling low.
2. Put him on a line with Willams and McGinn. A line that could be solid in all three zones. Staal, Lindholm, and Foegele would be the other defensively minded line. The Canes could legitimately run four strong lines like the Winnipeg model.
3. My preferred model is the Laine model. Laine plays third line on Winnipeg with two more defensive minded players. I would like to see Rask, Foegele, and the Russian. ( I don’t use his proper name because I can’t spell it and he is not on the team yet.) This would protect the Russian to some degree as he acclimates to the NHL.
It also allows Necas to play with Williams and McGinn. These rookies are incredibly talented but need experienced line mates. I really hope the team runs 4 lines like Winnipeg. Note these lines are not traditional 1-4 but applied in appropriate circumstances.
Aho/TT/
Zykov/Staal/Lindholm
Foegele/Rask/The Russian
McGinn/Necas/Williams
Martinook
Still waiting to see what happens with Skinner and Faulk for that player with Aho and TT. (Puljujarvi sp.? Would be excellent) I am not anchored to Rask but I think his value is greater to the Canes than anyone else.
1) Yes he can be traded but I agree not at a big discount. It is safe to say that his injury & BP’s coaching negatively impacted his 2017-18 season (he took 60 less shots than the year prior but his hits, shot percentage & face-off % were actually quite a bit higher). He should be valued as a 50 point, defensively sound 2-way #3 center which is in-line with the 2 previous seasons.
2) I agree. His defensive play last season probably improved from previous years.
3) I disagree. If we are going to have 2 very young centers than we should balance that with a legitimate and experienced 1C.
At the end of the season in Buffalo, Ryan O’Reilly alienated many fans with his comments. Jack Eichel’s $10M contract kicks in, Sam Reinhart (RFA) needs a new and pricier contract, and up-and-coming Casey Mittelstadt will likely be on the roster. Buffalo needs a RD (and an experienced 3C if they trade O’Reilly) and help on the wings. What a great fit O’Reilly would be if we could acquire him. It doesn’t hurt to dream.
Blinkman, I think point 1 here is spot on. It’s easy to be on a player and their offensive performance. If not for the injury, I’d be all in on out the door. I can only hope the surgery this offseason does a better job in fixing what ails him.
I am going to preface this with a comment, almost a rumor but the source is very credible. Before the trade deadline STL offered it’s 2018 1st round pick for Rask. RF asked for the 1st and 3rd round picks. STL said no, and there was no deal
I also heard this is what ultimately led to RF’s demotion – he turned down a deal that TD wanted and I am thinking he probably did it the “traditional” way, without informing TD of the process.
So, would a mid 1st round pick be considered good value for him?
Regardless, this suggests to me that Rask is one of the players that TD wants to move and I am thinking more for “culture” than talent.
And with that…
1) I think he should be moved – both for culture and talent (we have upgrades available). I would expect he will be part of a package deal – whether he is the highlight with other pieces included or as part of a deal with other higher-end parts will remain to be seen.
As an aside, if TD is going to follow the Cuban model in Dallas expect to see a lot of movement similar to the 5-player trade (35% of the roster) the Mavs made the year after Cuban bought the team. Rask will be one of those pieces gone.
2) His defensive acumen was the only positive last season. It is not enough to retain a spot, unless that spot is the 4th line center and I think he would be ideal, if overpaid, in that slot. I am not sure where such a line fits CT’s role-based view. Again I point to the offensive strength of Nordstrom in the two games he played with Rask centering the 4th line last season.
3) I am not sure how he would be complementary, except in the 4th line role mentioned above. We have a big, strong center in Staal already. I do remember a few plays in which Rask was the putative center but Aho led the transition down the center while Rask was on the wing and the plays were solid so I could see him moving to the wing and helping the 2-way play of a line centered by Aho and Necas. But I also see him slowing those lines down so I don’t know how he fits.
That’s a very interesting rumor – at the time, everyone thought Doug Armstrong had another deal working to replace Stastny (who was sent to WIN for their 1st). If this trade had happened, STL would have essentially traded Stastny + STL’s 1st for Rask + WIN’s 1st and gotten younger with more cost certainty without losing any picks (just the difference in draft order). That would have made a ton of sense for STL.
I was wondering why STL was interested in Rask for a 1st, but your scenario makes sense now to me.
If this is true, which I have my doubts, Francis should have been fired on the spot.
He pretty much was. Within days.
I am not sure it is true, but the source is such that I would consider it better than 50/50.
And, if you have read enough of what I have contributed here you will know I am not the random speculative or rumor-driven type.
Not saying you are, but it’s a hard story to believe. Stranger things….
It’s hard to know how injured Rask was this past season and how much it affected his performance. No one likes to make excuses so we may never really know.
If STL was really offering their 1st for Rask even-up at the deadline, then he has more value than I would have thought and probably means he can be included in a larger package. That’s worth exploring. (ie., Rask+Faulk for RNH + 1st/Puljujarvi)
But any trade is difficult so I think it’s at least as likely he stays. When healthy, I agree that he can be a solid contributor even if a little overpaid and can play Center or Wing. Versatility counts for something over a long season.
As far as I’m concerned, Rask is not a huge part of the “core” problem and I’d be focused on changing other pieces first, so whether he stays or goes is not the driving offseason decision point. Sorting out what to do with Faulk and Skinner are far more pressing issues.
If we could pull off Faulk + Rask for RNH + EDM 1st/Poolparty I would be ecstatic.
Well Edmonton fans are pitching Faulk and Rask for RNH and Lucic over at Copper and Blue so we might have some negotiating to do lol.
Yes, that is close to what I’ve been seeing as well; which is why I was saying I’d be ecstatic if we could pull off the above suggestion.
Well I’m just saying, I have to go back to them with something. I asked for Poolparty but they want a pick and not to throw in their first. It’s going to be a long negotiation.
I’m always terrible at coming up with/evaluating trade proposals but I would think it would be worth doing Faulk+Rask+2019 3rd rounder for RNH+Poolparty.
I would not trade Skinner and Faulk for RNH and Lucic )Lucic is pretty much finished and his deal is expensive. The Oilers can only reasonably trade him for a bag of pucks. Maybe we can try to swap Darling and Lucic, but Skinner + Faulk have to garner RNH plus another player) + their first round pick.
Yeah they’re not going for it. Let’s hope Peter Chiarelli is easier to deal with lol.
Agree that Lucic is a no go. At his best he was an effective knucklehead. Now he’s just a knucklehead.
Pretty sure the Canes HC would go for a trade for Nugent Hopkins. They share a charity golf tournament.
I have always been a fan of Victor Rask. Of course, I have not been a big stats guy. Rather, I have seen his great potential in his actual play. In my not-very-humble opinion, he has great potential as a scoring center. He has done well with Skinny on his wing.
But both of these men did not do well with BP as their coach. If Roddy gives both men a chance to play on a line with a big, strong power forward, they will blossom.
Rask is a great all around player. He has good size as well. He is not a gritty player, but he is tough enough to take a lot of punishment.
I hope we don’t trade him.
He is the GM that traded away Taylor Hall for Adam Larsen. Maybe we can get MacDavid for Scott Darling.
While the Hall trade was a tough one what I’ve heard is Hall paved his way to be traded. Pretty much pissed everyone off.
Last season was rough. Rough on the players, the franchise, and the fans. I got it. Many times I told my wife that Rask needed to find his heart because he sure didn’t bring it to the game.
Yet to call him a border line NHL player or fourth line albatross might be a bit harsh. I’ve been a canes fan for nine years. I know border line NHL players and 4th line albatrosses. Rask is not that.
He was hurt last year. I went back and looked at Paul Statsny’s numbers from 15-16 to 16-17 and they were very similar to Rask. If another commentor is correct why do you think St Louis wanted him?
4 million may seem like a lot for 31 points and it is. Yet it is fair for a responsible 3rd line center who is excellent in the face off circle and can average 45-50 points. If he plays with the Russian he will be on the high side of that number.
I’m all for giving Rask a clean slate, but if the lack of heart/effort shows it’s head again….gone. If you look at the talent level of the Canes Rask looks like a credible option for the 3rd or 4th line. If you look at the talent level of high peforming teams Rask is borderline to AHL player. The Canes need to be at the level where a player that plays like Rask has no place to play on the team. Where would Rask have played on the ’06 Canes?
If true, I thinkthat Stl deal for Rask would have been the way to go.
Not because Rask is a terrible player, but he wasn’t playing particularly well and theCanes have a lot of 2-way centermen on the roster and in the system.
Walmark has, for instance, showed a lot of the same characteristics and, if good, could replace Rask at a savings of 75%.
So, for a chance of shedding salary and getting an extra first round pick it was a no brainer in my opinion. A third round pick is about 70/30 bust so I don’t see why that would matter so much.
That being said, Rask could form a responsible line with Skinner and the Russian. I think we are placing way too much expectations on Necas. I haven’t dug through the WC stats but in the last game I did not see Necas on the score sheet at all. The kid is 19, not sed to the ice rink sizes over here and does not need the stress and expectation that comeswit being “the chosen one”.
I’m not saying the Canes shouldn’t put him in the lineup and in real situations, but I am saying that we can’t put him straight on the first line and get mad if he doesn’t score 3goals a game in his first 10 games, more likely he may score 1 goal and be -15.
Skinner didn’t score his first goal until close to Christmas, but still ended up with 30.
So the 16-17 version of Rask with Skinner and the Russian is a line with high scoring potential, giving Nicas a chance to play either on a first line down in Clt for awhile or with two talented wingers (to be determined) on a secondary offensive line that gets its share of minutes but does not have to match up against the opposing team’s best.
I’d trade him for the right return, scoring winger, big physical winger or defenseman or upgrade in goal, but not for pennies on the dollar.
I think Rask can rebound in Carolina.
Breezy. Understand and mostly agree with where you are coming from. I see Zykov/Aho/TT and Foegele/Staal/McGinn as taking match ups with better players from other teams. Then Necas/Svechnikov get time that shouldn’t be as demanding defensively—either with Rask or RNH if Fogger swings a deal.
Skinner/Lindholm/Williams should be able to handle minutes against other teams’ “3rd” and “4th” lines.
What I really hope doesn’t happen is both Necas and Svechnikov get 4-8 minutes (like Necas did in his one game and Wallmark did several times) because the coach is wedded to a rookies can only play on 4th line mentality. Change starts with thoughts and language. The Canes will eventually change to being a team with dangerous forwards (Aho, Svechnikov, Necas, Teravainen). Traditional thinking is no reason to postpone the success. Mind you I only think Svech will be an average 2nd pick—20 goals/40 points. I think Necas will be more like 12/35. So not expecting Laine or Matthews type rookie campaigns.
But I do expect the youngsters to be more challenging to opponents than Ryan, Kruger, and Di Giuseppe.
I totally agree with that. I think bringing Necas on the roadtrip and giving him 6 minutes in one game on the forth line last fall was almost worse than not bringing him at all.
So I see both of these rookies given second to third line duties with more experienced players, or manning two thirds of a surprise third line with an experienced player.
In the Necas case I don’t agree. The Canes were never keeping Necas unless he wowed them. They gave him a taste of the NHL, which was a good thing. He had already made plans to go back to Europe unless he made the team, which tells me he pretty much knew he wasn’t making the team.
Now for guys that you think are ready to make the jump like Foegele and Zykov, they should not be buried and get minimal minutes. They should get a chance to show what they can do.
We knew last season Peters wanted experienced players, and rookies saw minimal time (until the very end, but then really only with Z). Who knows RBA’s perspective – what do rookies have to do to “earn” their ice time under his coaching? That is the big unknown.
Frankly it’s an indictment of the talent level of the Canes forwards that we look at rookies and immediately think they should be getting top 6 play. Hopefully we get to the point that that’s not even a consideration due to superior talent.
I don’t disagree, lts, but I think last season BP definitely did.
It’s RBA’s turn now to show what he thinks.
Good discussion as always y’all.
I wonder, if the canes manage to pick up JVR, where he would fit in the line up, maybe we can play the family card, it’s been done in the past.
There were two games on the early roadtrip where the canes had two games 24 hours apart with a lot of travel. I think giving Necas real minutes on a real line would have been the right thing to do. As I recall, the canes brutally lost at least one of the games, against the Stars I think.
But, yeah, if Necas had made his decision and the trip and the couple of minutes was just a teaser to make him work harder, then I can agree it was not a bad thing.
I am glad Necas spent the year in Czech league. Y’all can go back and look at my comments in the preseason, I was doubtful that Necas had as much potential as others. His scoring as a 17-year-old was not terribly impressive.
Well, now I am on the Necas bandwagon. He performed well in an adult league. And he was a leading scorer in the WJC 20, which is often the best indicator of success in the NHL. So now I expect Necas to produce at least as well as Ryan and to be much tougher for opponents to defend. Though I admit he will probably not be as advanced defensively and definitely won’t be as good as face-offs.
In mostly unrelated news, the checkers AHL playoff run has ended.
I am not a big fan of excuses but in the series against the Fantoms they actually ran into a hot goalie and couldn’t solve him, a bit like any team playing against the Penguins last year.
I think the team can be proud of what they achieved, and hopefully motivated to go further next year with influx of talent.
I have only one thing to say to the Checkers; Well done, boys! Carry your well-earned aura of winners into next season. Maybe what you have will spread to the big team.
There has been much said among my fellow fans on this site about the possibility of a trade being made for Skinny. Lyle Richardson has said on his site that a line is forming of GMs expressing interest in him.
Richardson wisely points out that all of this is contingent upon the Skinny One waiving his “no trade” clause. Under the old regime, I doubt that it would have been an issue at all. I am sure he would have been anxious to depart. But now… Maybe he’ll opt to wait and see.
I, for one, fervently hope he does.