On Thursday, the Carolina Hurricanes lost their second consecutive game to the Capitals by a score of 3-2. As I said on Twitter shortly after the game ended:
No doubt a win over #ALLCAPS would have charted an easier path, but the Hurricanes will start the stretch run in playoff position.
That is an incredibly good thing. #TakeWarning
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) March 29, 2019
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes stock for the Carolina Hurricanes as it recuperates on Friday before a final burst of five games in eight days to close out the 2018-19 season and determine if a return to the NHL playoffs is in the cards.
What to make of the consecutive losses to the Capitals
To be honest, I see the consecutive losses to the Capitals pretty simply. The Caps are a top-tier hockey team and are rounding into form in time for the playoffs. As such, the team is a tough match up for anyone. So losing to them twice is not overly telling in terms of the current state of the team. After all, the Hurricanes were in both games through two periods and only really lost in the third period. So the gap between the two teams is there, but it is not that incredibly big. When paired with a similar loss to the Lightning last week, I think the games do show that there is another tier above the Hurricanes. But that is okay. So I think critical here is not to dwell on what might have been. The Hurricanes still control their own destiny and need to focus on what is next.
The current standings and competition
With Thursday’s results, the Hurricanes now have a slim one-point lead over both the Canadiens and Blue Jackets. In addition, the Hurricanes have a game in hand versus the Canadiens. All the Hurricanes need to do to make the playoffs is match one of these two teams in points for the final five games.
Someone asked me before the Hurricanes game who I was rooting for in the Blue Jackets versus Canadiens game. I said that with a Canes win I would root for Montreal, but that for a Canes loss I would root for Columbus. My reasoning is this. If the Hurricanes were to win, I would have gladly taken the Columbus loss and the five-point lead with only five games remaining. Columbus has a favorable remaining schedule, but I would gladly have taken my chances with the plus 5 points. But if instead the Hurricanes were to lose (which the team did), I would rather keep the slim lead over Montreal and take my chances that the Hurricanes can out-point them over the remaining games. I like that option for two reasons. First, the Hurricanes have a game in hand on the Canadiens, so the Canadiens only have four more chances for points. More significantly, Montreal has a gauntlet run to finish out its season with games at Winnipeg, versus Tampa Bay, at Washington and then versus Toronto. Considering head to head against Montreal, the potential is there to limp into the playoffs with a .500ish record because the Canadiens tough schedule keeps them to the same.
But focusing internally…
But focusing internally, I really think that Saturday’s game says a ton about who this team really is. Per my comment on Twitter late Thursday night:
I think Saturday's @NHLCanes game is the game that ultimately decides if this team truly is different from recent years.
Win and the playoff push resumes after brief interruption.
Lose and it's more of the same.
I think #Canes take care of business with 4-2 win.#TakeWarning
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) March 29, 2019
After two consecutive losses, many Carolina Hurricanes fans who have been around for the last couple years of heartbreak and disappointment are rightfully some combination of paranoid, skeptical scared. Whenever facing the tipping point between relevant and irrelevant, the Hurricanes have always faltered.
It is reasonable to believe that the 2018-19 Hurricanes are different. The team has a new coach who oozes success and winning. The team has a new captain who knows from experience what it takes to win. The team has a roster that is about half new such that not everyone is carrying around the baggage of past failures. And though it could just be wishful thinking, the team has a positive vibe and energy around it. But at the end of the day, the objective measure for “different” is results. To qualify as different, the team needs to win in this latest round of deciding games and push up and into the playoffs.
THE game
I really think that the Hurricanes game on Saturday afternoon is THE game. With Montreal’s tough schedule as noted above, I do think it is possible to lose on Saturday and also other games and still muddle their way into the playoffs if Montreal struggles. But I do not see that path to the playoffs as indicative of a meaningful turning point in the team’s history and fortunes.
I think winning on Saturday could put a stake in the ground for team history and with results make a meaningful claim that this team is different. And because of the circumstances, I think the Hurricanes must win this game. Consider that the Canes are coming off of two consecutive losses, the urgency to win should be there. Given the non-playoff opponent in an odd Saturday matinee, sometimes players struggle to manufacturing pace and intensity. The Hurricanes should theoretically have a significant advantage in generating that energy. There is obviously some randomness the NHL results, but I still think that if the Hurricanes are serious about generating a new identity, I think it starts with Saturday’s game.
How does it end?
The resiliency of this team and ‘just find a way’ wins from early January through now makes me think that this team has in fact changed for the better. Furthermore, it is subjective but increasingly I believe that this team has turned the corner. I think the Hurricanes take care of business on Saturday and win by two or more goals. Then from there I think the team wins at least two more games which should be enough too make the playoffs.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you make of the two-game losing streak to the Capitals? Is it just a tough stretch of schedule? Or might there be concern that the team is fading?
2) Do you think Saturday’s tilt against Philadelphia is THE game as I have it? Or do you maybe think that all that really matters is the end result?
Go Canes!
I think the last two weeks have clearly demonstrated that the Canes are a good team but not a cup contender or even a top 5 team.
That’s ok, it’s a young team with relatively little experience who have almost done the impossible (vaulted from draft pick territory to having a more than even chance of making the 2019 playoffs in the span of 3 months, and I’m proud to be a Caniac.
They need to get over the hump of playoff misses this year and not repeat past last minute letdowns (anyone remember that game 82 against the Lightning, in 2011 I think, where the Canes lost badly with playoffs on the line).
Beat Philly, come back and beat the Penguins, than take at least one more game, why not sweep the Flyers? Have Tor and Tbl eliminate the Canadiens.
The team played elite competition the past week, so I’m not overly concerned with the outcome. First TB, then the national game and then pressure to come home and win against an elite opponent in WAS is no small order, and they kept pace for most.
To no surprise, MTL and CBJ caught up and are right behind us. CBJ is streaky and has a favorable schedule, MTL has a brutal schedule with one less game, but assuming the obvious at this time of year is “fools gold”. Spoilers spoil, and elite teams locked into a playoff seed may rest star players making those games winnable. My point is the Canes need to take care of their own business. They know this next week is winnable. They’ve done it before and can do it again. It starts Saturday, what a week this will be.
Scheduled “Speed Bump”: The Canes just played game 77 with a 2 game home and home series with the reigning Stanley Cup Champs. They were icing virtually the same team that won it all last season and is playing it’s best hockey of the entire year. We discovered that we have a way to go before we can claim even an Eastern Conference Championship. We also learned that if we continue to play at the same level for remainder of the season we can make the playoffs. (Pardon the colloquial “we”.) Finishing the season 3-1-1 would give the Canes 98 points for the season. We all know what that means. Culture change has begun. Or, looking at it another way, Buffalo in 2019-20 would become the team that currently has the longest drought between playoff appearances.
I am one of those fans that waffles between “some combination of paranoid, skeptical and scared” and excitement for the new chapter about to be written; this post captures that balance for me perfectly, especially considering we’ve blown 3 3rd-period leads in a row to top echelon teams.
This team is going to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, I’m not sure it’s going to have much gas left in the tank; their best hockey might have been played in late February/early March and it’s hard to recapture the magic so quickly. We’ll see.
Saturday’s game is THE game, unless we lose, and then THE game becomes the next one. The reality is that every game is THE game until the season ends.
I only hope that when we get to playoffs, we don’t become satisfied, and that we immediately set our sights on a higher goal – like winning the first series. If the games against TBY and WAS prove anything, they prove that the margin between teams is small and we have a chance if we play anywhere close to our best hockey (which we didn’t do in those three games).
Agree in the importance of Saturday and what it will show about this team. Hate that it’s a matinee – I feel like we’ve been sluggish with the games. Flyers are still a very good team.
Canes had a lot of high quality chances last night – really thought they could have had 4 goals. I also thought Aho started looking himself more and had that extra burst of speed that’s been missing lately.
It’s going to be a stressful/exciting 8 days. Lets Go Canes!
Win or lose Saturday, this team is unlike any of the recent versions (<10 yrs. You can see it, feel it and hear it during interviews with players, coaches and management. No doubt in my mind that finally, this organization has turned the corner in a big way and if not this year, then next year they will be an official contender for the big prize. I'm confident they'll squeeze into the playoffs this year but if somehow they end up on the outside looking in, it won't be the same sense of despondency had the previous players and regime stuck around for another season. This nervousness about in or out of the playoffs is just the first sign of good times coming. It sure would have helped if the Flyers played a game since their Wednesday OT win over the Leafs. The Canes will be playing a rested team with nothing to lose. In the Canes favor is the Flyers are playing a goalie who hasn't played a game in what seems like months. Jump on 'em early.
I certainly hope we don’t “limp into the playoffs” – that would be so anticlimactic.
Anticlimactic>10 year drought
an·ti·cli·mac·tic
/ˌan(t)ēˌklīˈmaktik,ˌanˌtīklīˈmaktik/
adjective
causing disappointment at the end of an exciting or impressive series of events.
I honestly don’t care how the team gets into the playoffs, if it does it’ll be the best thing to happen in a decade. 😉