Despite the fact that the 2016-17 season just ended, we are in the early stages of assessing the 2016-17 season at Canes and Coffee and also starting to look forward to the 2017-18 season.
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Last week’s Carolina Hurricanes press conference with Bill Peters and Ron Francis offered some clues as to how Peters sees the current forwards fitting into the lineup. (If you were away for spring break, you can find my thoughts on the press release in 2 parts — Part 1 & Part 2.)
I usually steer clear of trying to build the roster until a bit later in the offseason and closer to when it all happens in June and JUly, but understanding where Peters sees Lindholm (RW) and Aho (LW) at least short-term started me thinking about how the current players fit into the mix for the 2017-18 opening day roster.
Important caveat: The aim at this early stage is to fill out a top 9 for forwards and then a fourth line up front, and then a top 4 on defense followed by a bottom pairing. At this early juncture, I will not get bogged down with line combinations/who plays with whom within the 4 sets.
Hurricanes forward lines – Top 9 (7 slots filled)
Left wing: Jeff Skinner, Sebastian Aho.
Center: Jordan Staal, Victor Rask.
Right wing: Elias Lindholm, Lee Stempniak. (I am in the minority from what I have read elsewhere, but in my article about the expansion draft, I wrote that I think Francis will actually protect Stempniak over 1 of Di Giuseppe or McGinn.)
Other: Teuvo Teravainen. Best bet is that he slots at left wing, but he could play any of the 3 forward positions.
So for the sake of filling slots, I see it like this:
Aho / _____ /______
Teravainen / Staal / Lindholm
Skinner / Rask / Stempniak
That leaves 2 of the top 9 slots to be filled either internally from the depth forwards below or from outside of the organization during the off-season.
Hurricanes forward lines – Building a fourth line (3 slots potentially filled)
The Hurricanes suddenly have significant capable depth with at least some experience at the NHL level.
Centers: Lucas Wallmark, Derek Ryan (would need to be re-signed).
Wings: Joakim Nordstrom, Phil Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn, Andrej Nestrasil (would need to be re-signed).
I really like that set of 6 as a starting point for building a fourth line that is reasonably capable defensively like an old school fourth line but also has the ability to contribute offensively.
The next wave of Hurricanes prospects (5 players trying to seize a slot)
I am on board with the Bill Peters plan that votes against “hoping” players are ready and instead puts them in roles “knowing” they are ready. Tactically for me, that means not entering training camp counting on or projecting players with little or no NHL experience to step into a significant role at the NHL level. But at the same time, that means giving them the opportunity to rise up when they are ready whether that be sooner or later.
The collection of Hurricanes players with top 9 potential but no (or incredibly little) NHL experience includes Julien Gauthier, Nicolas Roy, Aleksi Saarela and possibly Valentin Zykov. Based on projections and scouting reports anyway, Warren Foegele does not figure to have as high of a ceiling offensively as the rest of the group, but I think he is another high-energy player who could compete for a fourth-line slot sooner rather than later.
It is not out of the question that 1 of these players rises up in training camp and seizes a roster spot, but at the same time, the pressure to force them into the NHL before they are ready is decreasing as the Hurricanes add depth at the forward position.
Needs at forward (1 difference-maker, possibly 1 depth forward)
Give me a proven offensive catalyst forward, ideally with size and preferably a center to pair with Sebastian Aho on a scoring line, and I will take my chances filling the final top 9 slot from within or with a relatively inexpensive free agent. There are enough serviceable players and potentials from the next wave that I think 1 difference-maker at forward is enough. The key word here is “difference-maker.” The team is not looking for another capable, complementary #9 type forward. They are looking for someone who can help drive offense for a scoring line.
Francis could also look to add a higher-end fourth-line forward to solidify that line. It might sound odd to suggest adding a premium version of a bottom player, but what Viktor Stalberg did for the team was eye-opening. I would be thrilled to have him back for a similar contract.
Especially if Francis protects Stempniak, I really think the shopping list at forward is 1 impact forward and possibly 1 premium fourth-liner if their is a match. The Canes could use size and penalty-killing acumen in such a role similar to what Stalberg provided before being traded.
Thinking in pairs
Bill Peters often talks about forwards in pairs, and I think that is an interesting way to think about the existing players. I like Skinner with Rask because I think Rask’s positioning and strong read/react ability are a good fit for adjusting to Skinner playing with the puck on his stick and taking some freelancing risks here and there. I also think that a playmaking center if added is better spent on another line. Skinner creates his own offense. I like Aho with whoever the highest-end offensive forward we add is. I think Aho has a higher gear but will need an equal player to help reach it. I do not think that kind of player is on the roster currently. I think Lindholm could fit in a few places, but I like the idea of building two-thirds of a top-end checking line around Jordan Staal. That is not to say that they cannot score too, but especially at home, they get shutdown responsibilities. I could see Lindholm as a complementary player on a scoring line with Aho/new center, but I am not sure that leaves enough to build a strong line around Staal. Further, if Staal’s line takes all of the tough match ups, I am not sure that is somewhere Peters would want to plug in a rookie.
What say you Caniacs?
Do you think adding 1 top-end forward is enough to bolster the forward ranks to playoff-capable?
How many top 9 forwards do you think the team needs to add?
Are you happy with the options to build a fourth line in house, or would you consider making a Viktor Stalberg like signing to add a premium depth forward to the mix?
What are the chances that 1 of the ‘next wave’ players rises up ahead of schedule continuing the run of recent successes that have included Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Sebastian Aho?
Go Canes!
Let me start off with a challenge. I think the “old school” way of thinking is going to quickly pass in the NHL. Four skill lines will become the norm pretty quickly. And having a 4th line that only gets 6-8 minutes is going to go away. Teams like Columbus and San Jose already have all four lines averaging 12-17 minutes. And younger players are being used due to salary and skill. The Canes did a great job of getting Stempniak and Stalberg last year. And I don’t totally oppose more such moves this year. But a 4th line of McGinn (I agree with you that they protect Stempniak so I think DiG probably moves), Saarela, Foegele makes sense–full stop.
I really like Peters, but think he might be struggling with the changes. As I pointed out yesterday, the reliance on Hainsey might have cost the team a playoff spot. Seriously, when you look at the statistics it is really hard to think that any of the three youngsters wouldn’t have performed better. I think the success of 19-year-olds, including Aho, is becoming much more evident. Hockey is where basketball was 20 years ago when coaches and scouts were arguing that taking high-schoolers or freshmen would only stunt their growth. There is little evidence for that other than “everybody knows it.”
If Carolina has players who show that they are capable in training camp, give them a roster slot (based on what you observed Matt, Foegele should have been on this year’s team). Better to have talent than experience that costs a game or two over the course of the year.
First, I would like to say that ctcaniac’s comments really hit the mark. So what I am going to say is intended to support his(or her) comments. I think the league has changed. Virtually every team in the league is plugging in younger players and building 4 forward lines that can play good minutes and provide scoring depth. The speed of the game IMO is making it necessary to do so to keep fresh players on the ice without totally sacrificing scoring ability.
I do believe we need to sign or trade for a difference maker forward for our top line. Someone like Tavares, MacKinnon, etc. Also, an addition of Stalberg or similar type 4th line player would sure help.
Lastly, I would be inclined more to add young forwards with speed who can score despite some defensive liabilities they may have. It seems to me that this type player is easier to find and enjoys success quicker. Controlling the puck with speed keeps the puck from the other team (good defense) and also forces the other team into more defensive errors (enhancing scoring opportunities). Defensive lapses by forwards occur no matter who is on the ice. When they do occur responsibility for covering shifts to defensemen and GOALIES (need I say more). This is not to say I favor a forward who cannot play any defense, it is to say the swag in making the decision to keep or not should always favor the forward who can score ON A REGULAR BASIS given a fair amount of minutes (not 5 or 6 goals a season, but 12 to 15 goals a season for 3rd and 4th liners).
I don’t disagree with any of the above, and even acquiring an older center (if he has great wheels) would be smart…the team could use a little more savvy, me thinks! The young kids should be kept in Charlotte unless they really force their way here!!
I agree with the above comments, including how 4th lines are being constructed and used. One top 9 forward and a goalie and we are in the playoffs. I too would keep Stempniak and build the 4th line from within. Its the perfect place to bring up young talent and let them develop. Our D will be that much better. Whoever we bring in must improve the PP and the OT/shootout situation. That’s paramount in my book. Next year begins a long period of years of playoff hockey in Raleigh!
I like the idea of adding one skilled top 9 forward but not sure we’ll need to overspend here. TJ Oshie (or someone of that ilk) would be perfect and available and may be near the top of my list.
I also like the idea of filling the fourth line with home-grown talent but only if they’re ready and we can’t do better elsewhere. Competition is a good thing, and the 4th line is going to be quite competitive. Stahlberg, as good as he was in multiple roles this year, may not be good enough next year. If he was worth a 3rd rounder at the deadline, does that mean we could do even better with a 2nd this summer?
All that said, an upgrade in net takes some of the pressure of this discussion.