On Wednesday, the biggest chunk of free time I had was minus my PC but with paper, so today’s Daily Cup of Joe goes a bit old school scribbling out how I see the Hurricanes forward lines as of right now.
This link should pull up my scribbled chart of the Canes current lines and openings.
The goal
The Holy Grail for building out the forward lines such that the team has two relatively equal scoring lines each with a catalyst/driver who generates scoring chances for his line mates. Then an equal but differently-purposed line led by Jordan Staal would be used as a math up/checking line. Finally, the hope would be to push some good players who can score some down to a fourth line that can put up decent offense for a fourth line.
Disclaimers
My assessment is based on how players performed during the 2018-19 regular season. No doubt the Hurricanes have some young players and prospects who have upside relative to what they produced in 2018-19. But I think there is a difference between “betting” on improvement versus “planning” for what is likely to happen. As the Hurricanes learned quickly last year with Martin Necas, it is difficult to project what rookies will do, so best is to count them as wild cards who can provide upside.
The shorter version is that my building of the 2019-20 roster does leave some room for rookies to seize spots, but this is more of a bonus wild card than the summer plan.
The current status
With the the aim of building two relatively equal scoring lines, my math says that the team is currently two players short. Sebastian Aho figures to center one of the two scoring lines and qualifies as a catalyst/playmaker. Teuvo Teravainen showed himself capable of scoring at a top 6 rate with Aho but maybe more significantly to some degree without him. Nino Niederreiter is more of a complementary player than a driver, but he has enough hockey sense and finishing ability to be a capable complementary top 6 scorer. Finally, though his production was a bit short in 2018-19, I am hoping for a step up and am counting Andrei Svechnikov.
That leaves the Hurricanes two players short of filling out the top 6 as I envision. I think it could be possible to fill one of those two slots from the promising prospect pool or even just a depth forward filling a role. But to truly have two relatively equal scoring lines, I think the Hurricanes need at least a single player who is a legitimate offensive catalyst ideally in the form of a center.
Jordan Staal is then slotted to lead a top match up/checking line. Especially if this line is not forced to become a primary scoring line, the team has enough options to build out this line from players that it already has. All of Warren Foegele, Saku Maenalanen, Brock McGinn and and possibly Jordan Martinook are maybe a bit light offensively but have the necessary skill set to play alongside Staal on a checking line tasked to play against the league’s best. If Justin Williams returns, he could slot on this line or possibly one of the two scoring lines.
That leaves Lucas Wallmark to center a fourth line that is competent defensively and has the potential to outscore its role. Just like with Staal’s line, I think the team has enough bottom half of the roster depth to build out a capable line that probably outscores the average for fourth lines.
Then below that the Hurricanes have two kinds of depth. First, the team has the competent, ‘system’ depth that Rod Brind’Amour mostly opted for when he needed reinforcements during the 2018-19 season. That group includes Greg McKegg, Saku Maenalanen, Clark Bishop and Patrick Brown. Second, the team has a group of promising prospects who bring more scoring upside and the potential to fill a top half of the roster slot. That group is led by Martin Necas and also includes Morgan Geekie, Julien Gauthier, Janne Kuokkanen and possibly Andrew Poturalski (if re-signed).
The net and the need
When I net it out, I like the Hurricanes ability to fill out a capable match up/checking line around Jordan Staal. I also like the team’s ability to build out a scoring positive fourth line and have some depth behind that in case of injuries. But where I think the team falls short is having enough bona fide top 6 forwards whose offensive production matches that level.
I really think it just takes a legitimate top 6 playmaking center to push things into place. That player would hopefully be the catalyst for the second scoring line. Such a player would also bump Staal out of a scoring slot and push Wallmark down to the fourth line where he goes from being ‘meh’ for scoring to above average. If a playmaker who is added can drive a second scoring line, it also just reduces what is required from the two lines below.
The wild cards
As noted in the disclaimers, ideal is not to put the cart ahead of the horse for rookies and count on them to fill top slots. Better is to have them earn their way up into the top of the lineup when they are ready. In that regard, the Hurricanes do have a number of players with potential to do better in 2019-20. 2018-19 rookies Lucas Wallmark and Warren Foegele have the potential to improve their production. Foegele actually picked up the pace in the playoffs suggesting that maybe he has a higher gear as he develops as a player. Wallmark too could have a higher gear after a full year in the NHL to settle in. Further, Martin Necas grew as a player in Charlotte in 2018-19 and has the potential to be ready for a step up to the NHL for the 2019-20 season. Then the Hurricanes have a couple AHLers past Necas. I think ideal for these players is to not count on them for too much but to be sure to get some of those players auditions in higher slots when players earn it and/or injuries make openings.
What say you Canes fans?
1) If given the same task how would you create the current version of the Hurricanes’ forward lines?
2) What do you think of my assertion that the Hurricanes currently have two openings for top 6 scoring forwards but that adding one higher-end playmaker might be enough?
3) To what degree would you allocate roster spots to be won by the AHL prospects in training camp?
Go Canes!
1) I continue to advocate for two scoring lines, a disruption line, and a hybrid line. During the Canes highly successful January-March stretch, the “fourth” line came pretty close to being a disruption line. Foegele/McKegg/McGinn/Maenalanen were creating havoc every game with their forechecking and physicality. I like some combination of those players along with Martinook to create that disruption line again this upcoming season.
The two scoring lines have their catalysts in Aho on the first scoring line and Teravainen on the second. Niederreiter and Svech are two finishers. I have no problem with Staal centering the second scoring line. He drives possession and demonstrated the ability to produce points after his return—I think RBA’s system allows him to be more productive than he has been in previous years (he will never produce like Duchene, but I think 25 goals/30 assists is reasonable).
So by my estimation, the Canes need a goal-scoring right winger. Sure it would be great to have a “second Aho” to be the Canes Malkin or Tavares, but I don’t see that as likely.
Finally, I think Wallmark earned the opportunity to develop more scoring on the hybrid line. He was solid in his rookie season. I have pointed out before that so far in his career he has increased production 80% in each successive year in a professional league. Even if he increases production 50%, that 42 points deserves a role other than as a disrupter.
2) As I mentioned above I think there is one openin in the top 9. Because Necas needs to be the option for right-wing on Wallmark’s line. I consider Teravainen the “playmaker” on the second scoring line. The Canes need a 25-30 goal scorer to round out their two scoring lines.
3) I would prefer to see both hybrid line spots up for competition. Necas needs to start developing in the NHL. The left wing on that line might be best manned by Kuokkanen or Luostarinen or (creative option) by signing Jurco to an NHL contract.
If none of those players earns the spot with Wallmark and Necas, any of Foegele/McGinn/Martinook/Maenalanen might raise their level of offensive contribution.
Good thoughts for sure! I also agree in theory with how the forward lines should be designed. That said I think we’ll see 3 forwards added to the roster, plus 1 defenseman and a 1A goalie.
In order to make the forward logic work we desperately need a 2C with high end skill who can play in all situations (that 2C might even be a 1C for us). We also need a rugged forward, preferably top 6 wing who can score. If Necas is promoted, then he would be the 3rd forward addition. How the lines are designed at that point depend on these additions.
The RFA/UFA period, along with potential trade(s) have the Canes in a sweet position to really cement some needs. If they want to ultimately beat teams like the Bruins and survive the very difficult Metro division & divisional playoffs for that matter, they need two key components: 1) get tougher and 2) playmaking/scoring punch. (see Blues as reference)
You have accurately described the need to get tougher (and more skilled) My guess is the movement of Saarela is related to that need.
The unknown is how many of the Checkers are considered ready for the NHL in October. If there are any, slots need to be kept open for them. Poturalski and Jurco could (should) be in the picture as well, though they would need to be signed first.
I don’t think either Jurco or Potsy or going to re-sign if they are just going to be AHLers. Jurco was playing on a “show me” basis after coming back from injury. This is Poturalski’s chance – perhaps his final chance – to find a place that has him in a position to play on NHL ice, instead of being consigned to the AHL.
Yay! Yippeeeee! Hoorah! Huzzaaaaah! This is great!
Why am I so elated? Brooks Orpik has just retired! Yay!
We all remember good old Brooks. He’s the defenseman (then with the Penguins) who drove Eric Cole into the boards headfirst, breaking Cole’s neck. No whistle. He’s also the defenseman (with the Caps) who in the recent playoffs speared Jordan Martinook in the groin. Martinook fell to the ice like he had been shot and lay there curled up in pain. No whistle.
That leaves the Caps with only 3 or 4 goons to abuse our players. Among those goons are Wilson and Ovi.
Of course, there are no stats to highlight goonery. Well, PIM does capture some of it. But neither of the aforementioned horror shows attracted the attention of a referee, so neither infraction of the rules was memorialized by penalty minutes. To be sure, fully half of all such infractions committed in the NHL are ignored or somehow missed by referees and therefore not called penalties.
Jeff Skinner was subjected to years of playing on this team when those in the know (those who actually watch the games, not fancy stat fanalysts) referred to my beloved Canes as the Candy Canes. Being the go-to guy for scoring, Skinny attracted the attention of every goon in the NHL. By the time he escaped to Buffalo, he had suffered at least 4 concussions. He did have a rotten attitude. But can anybody blame him? I know. I know. He’s a professional. None of that slashing, butt ending, elbowing, cross checking, punching, spearing, boarding, verbal abuse and face washing should have bothered him. But, surprise surprise, it did.
Now, unless we replace Michael Ferland with a player who is a bona fide enforcer (someone who is both willing and able to fight and prevail against most goons on behalf of his teammates) our little Finns will become like Skinny was.
Unless they and any other players on the team are protected, none will realize their potential as scorers.
Who can blame them? In the REAL NHL, pain is felt equally by professionals and non-professionals alike. Injuries happen to professionals too.
PROFESSIONAL HOCKEY PLAYERS ARE HUMAN BEINGS!
I am not sure how I would – your concepts are good, Matt. I think you under-emphasize Wallmark’s offensive upside. He showed himself as an offensive force in the AHL at center and I expect to see him show improvement in his offensive numbers.
I now view Necas as playmaking wing. With a talented left-winger (Jurco) and good 2-way center (Brown) he has starred in CLT.
I can see a mid-6 centers as a nice add – we don’t need a dominating 1/2 C if we put the pieces together right.
I am still concerned we have too many grit-and-grinders in our existing forward corps (I am really disappointed in the Saarela trade – I imagine that was the sweetener for CHI to accept the salary/contract/uncertainty of CdH. But he is the LW sniper with an NHL shot and greatly improved 2-way play last season).
After having counted on te AHL players being given a legitimate opportunity in training camp for the past several seasons I have really given up on slots being made available for those guys – no matter how talented (see Saarela reference above).
I too think there is potential upside in the young players and also the prospects, but I guess how I think of it is that you mostly leave some room and count these as bonuses. You do not pen someone with 0 games of NHL experience into the top 6 and count on top 6 scoring production. Last year was a great example.
The team penned Necas into a C3 center slot at the NHL level, and he just was not ready yet. For as much as Svechnikov still projects to be a high-end scorer, he really wasn’t in 2018-19. He provided 3rd-line-ish depth scoring. As much as Wallmark gets credited for having a good season (which he did), his production is sub-par for a C3 slot. Foegele similarly gets credit for being a capable NHL player as a rookie, but he was sub-Kruger scoring-wise except for a burst in his first 4-5 games and another burst in the last 10-12.
It’s NOT that I do not see upside in the Canes youth. It’s just that, trying build a legitimate top filling 2 slots with players who have never performed anywhere close to that level is very likely to come up short.
Ideally you build a roster that has a legitimate top 6 scoring-wise and you leave room for 1-2 young players to win spots. They move up into higher roles when they earn it/are ready not because you hope they can.
I think last year we relied on grit-and-grinder because they had NHL experience while not giving a real opportunity for younger skill players to grow into the NHL game.
Necas was clearly overmatched as an NHL center last center – but he has been groomed to be a playmaking wing (the same path Turbo took in his early career). Hopefully he gets a real shot this year.
Foegele stayed up because he was, first and foremost, an RBA-style grinder.
But when you write “It’s just that, trying build a legitimate top filling 2 slots with players who have never performed anywhere close to that level is very likely to come up short.” you are effectively saying the young guns would need to start on Staal’s checking line or Wallmark’s 4th line, in spite of a skill mismatch for roles on those types of lines.
But I really think it is Necas who gets the nod to make the roster – so the question is how do slot him in a projected set of lines.
with the DeHaan trade, it looks like trading for a forward is unlikely. I’d like to add a top 6 forward to replace Ferland (Ferland being the best available for the role).
Can Paveleski be signed and matched up with Marleau? Unlikely.
Can Simmonds or Perry be signed and fill top 6 roles? Unlikely.
Is Kyle Turris an option? Big contract so a big risk. But less money and term than Duschene.
Can our young guys fill the roles talked about here? I think that is what the Canes will try. Honestly, If Ferland gets too much term then that is what I would do.
In a press conference yesterday, Waddell said they are looking to pick up one or two forwards in the UFA market or via trade.
Ideally we’d trade for/add scoring or playmaking talent, but that wouldn’t make the team profitable, the question is whether /how much the Canes owner is willing to spend the money necessary to sign top talent.
If he is, I like Matt’s approach.
If not, I’d propose to rely on chemistry and bring Poturolski/Necas/Jurco up together (or put Brown in the middle to recreate the top Checkers line). I think there’s a lot to be said about chemistry and the sum of 2 or 3 players being greater than their individual stats, so if we are looking for a third line why not bring up the top line from the team that won the Calder cup (yes, 2 of those guys need to be resigned, but they can be signed for much lower salary than an established NHL forward).
And the Canes need to give more chances to the Checkers’ to forwards.
I think we tend to mix up relying on guys with 0 NHL or AHL experience, at age 18, to come save the team (i.e. Necas and Lindholm, maybe to some extent Rask) and guys with some AHL experience, a year or two.
It feels a bit like if the guys can’t come right in and maintain a spot that they end up forever relligated to the AHL or traded. That is an exaggeration, but the point is that the Gauthier and Necas that we saw in the AHL playoffs were way better than the Gauthier and Necas fron last fall.
And I agree that the Canes need an agitater/tough guy to stand up for his teammates.
The key is to find someone who can also chip in on the scoresheet from time to time.
Patrick Maroon would be great if he doesn’t commend a 10 year $300 million deal, as you would expect from a cup winning UFA.
I think this team is never going to sign the superstars and it is going to be increasingly hard to convince UFAs that the Canes are a esireable organization.
In that case we have to focus on the homegrown talent, but in order to do that the homegrown talent must be given a chance, even if they need time to acclimate to the higher level of competition, and we as fans have to suffer some frustrations while they figure out how to be successful (assuming they will, likely for some, but not all).
Again, it’s all up to the ownership / management. They have to show that they mean to bring the cup to Raleigh and that they are willing to do what it takes to make it happen.
There will be opportunities to sign good players subjected to the cap crunch, we have to see if the Canes take advantage of those opportunities.
Good comments from all above. Goalie is pretty important. I hope we are able to get at least one of our guys back. As surgult pointed out yesterday, Forsberg had number slightly above Ned’s for AHL. When it come to NHL Forsberg did not look so good. Ned could have the same fate at the NHL level. Goalie is the biggest concern for me.
D, still pretty good with the prospects we have. Have to believe Faulk is resigned now. Not a bad thing.
Forwards. Need an enforcer to protect our guys. I really hope we find a way to bring Ferland back. I see very few who can bring what he does. I also agree with the needing one more top 6. A trade is possible with our AHL depth and picks for a cash strapped team but I was thinking real top end, which means UFA. Hard to say what will happen. We have talent coming but do agree that they have to earn it. I do believe that RBA allows that. Much more so then BP did. We had a lot of call ups last year that made a difference, so I do not think RBA closes the door on the AHL guys. He just says, earn it.
I made my comments as if Marleau was a done deal. If we do not buy him out (dependent on him), we already have a pretty good forward added, plus veteran leadership.
VGK is in a cap crunch and I’ll bet, ice, that you’d love to have Ryan Reaves roaming the neutral zone to protect the boys in red. I’ll bet he’d come cheap. My point is that there are options out there other than Ferland.
Good example. Ferland is not the only one but just not many of them. Still prefer Ferland. Just an opinion.
Why does everyone ignore the obvious choice for the 1st line… SIGN PANARIN! If he would rather be in Florida, then There are a few free agents like Duchene who could work! I don’t buy the money issues, and ONE GUY COULD PUT US OVER THE TOP. That assumes that the goalie position remains solid, and I am NOT overly confident that they don’t screw that up…!
Not ignoring at all PG. I had said UFA in my comments above. That is the guys you just mentioned. If we get a forward, get a difference maker. That is in addition to resigning Ferland (Reaves works as well).
Gotcha, I just assumed Panarin was not specifically mentioned, so…!
There’s not a chance that this o/m will add a guy with the price tag of Panarin, they couldn’t even pay their goalie coach.
Even if they could, Panarin wants to go to Florida or party it up in the big apple or LA. He specifically wanted out of a small market city like Columbus, I think Raleigh is a bout the last place he wants to go.
Would I love having him, heck yeah!!
I am afraid you might be right breezy. The UFA has to want to come here first. DW being cheap, I kind of feel that but he could surprise us. It could be smart moves. I am on the fence about cheap. Reserving judgment. I will wait until all the maneuvering is done. He wants to win, he may spend. De Hann and NN were not what I would call cheap moves. Not crazy money but not cheap ether.