Late last week, part one of this two-part article slotted the Carolina Hurricanes goalies and defensemen onto a good NHL team.
Part two does similar for the Hurricanes forward group.
Carolina Hurricanes forwards
Sebastian Aho — 1st line/driver for scoring line: Aho is on target to finish with 60-65 points as a 20-year old in his second season in the NHL. While not elite, that production qualifies as first line-worthy in today’s NHL. I continue to think that the next level for Aho will be achieved when a third scoring forward is added to a line with him and Teravainen. Staal and Lindholm are both capable players who bring something to any line, but neither is truly a first line player offensively. In addition, I think ultimately Aho’s point total will take another step up when he plays with two higher-end finishers such that he reverts back to his playmaking foundation similar to his role playing between Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrik Laine on that lights out line for the Finnish world juniors team.
Jordan Staal — 2nd line/driver for shutdown line: Despite not scoring at an elite level, Jordan Staal is every bit capable of being a top 6 center on a winning hockey team. But critical is that he play opposite a complementary center who is more scoring-oriented. In such a scenario, Staal’s role would be to anchor a match up line that takes as many shifts as possible against the other teams’ best players. The line must score too but not at a first line rate.
Teuvo Teravainen — Top 6 forward/scoring line: I go back and forth on whether Teravainen is truly a scoring top 6 forward, but the numbers do not lie. He is playing at that level or very close. Especially if the Hurricanes add another forward who complements the Finnish duo, Teravainen’s chemistry and offensive production playing with Aho make him a good option to fill out a scoring line with Aho as as a leader.
Elias Lindholm — #6 forward/shutdown or balanced line: The positive spin is that Lindholm has grown to become a good all-around forward who is capable of playing on any line. The negative spin is that despite being well-rounded, I do not think Lindholm is elite at anything. I think he fits neatly onto a second line and can bring some assets to a second line of any kind, but I see him as a complementary player and not a driver who makes a line go. This could fit well on Jordan Staal’s shutdown line. Lindholm is capable of playing on a scoring line, but on a good team, I think he is slightly out of position in that role.
Jeff Skinner — Elite scorer/potentially challenging fit: Jeff Skinner scores at a first line rate, but defensively still is not a player that a team ideally wants matched up against the opposition’s top scorers. Partly because of his defensive play but also partly because of his style of play at times being a one man show keeping the puck, the challenge is figuring out where he fits in the lineup.
Justin Williams — Top 9 forward: Williams is good player but more of a complementary player than a driver or a catalyst. He is a bit like Lindholm in that he can bring something to any line but maybe is not a great fit on a pure scoring line if there are other options available. If Lindholm stays at the center position, Williams is capable as the right side of Staal’s line where he has been of late, or he could be a key component on a third line that balances the forward lines.
Strong depth with the ability to contribute offensively
On a deep team, ideal is to push at least a couple scoring-capable players down to the fourth line of a healthy roster. That provides depth scoring and also has players at the ready when injuries occur and/or when the coach wants to shuffle lines to try to spark the offense. Strong efforts by Rask/Ryan/Stempniak in the two-game winning streak illustrate the value of having scoring depth lower in the lineup, but ideally the goal is to fill these slots with less expensive players which usually means younger players on entry-level or sometimes second contracts. Also worth noting is that it is possible to have a #10 forward or two playing in the top 9, but too many pushing up to that level on a healthy roster is a telltale sign that team is light on offensive fire power.
Brock McGinn — #/9#10 forward: Brock McGinn has had a strong 2017-18 season, and with a 14-goal and 29-point scoring pace without much power play time to go with a consistent physical edge and forechecking game, McGinn has been serviceable and often better in a top 9 role. But ideally, a player like him spends at least part of the season in a fourth-line role and bumps up when an injury necessitates it or a spark is needed. It is all about offensive production. In a top 9 role, 25-30 points is light, whereas as a fourth-line forward the same point total represents strong depth scoring given the role.
Lee Stempniak — #9/#10 forward: Though with a slightly different skill set, Stempniak is similar to McGinn in that he is capable of playing in the top 9 but incredibly good if pushed down to the fourth line, as he has been recently. With an expiring contract, Stempniak seems likely not to be re-signed to open another slot for youth, but his skill set fits as a solid #9/#10 fringe forward.
Victor Rask — #9/#10 forward: As a capable two-way center, Rask is similar to McGinn and Stemniak in that he is capable of filling one of the last top 9 slots or filling in in that capacity if injuries require depth. But the 2017-18 version of Victor Rask that is on pace for 34 points is a bit light offensively especially on a team that lacks a pure scoring line at the top of the lineup and needs as much scoring help as possible from lower in the lineup. The issue with Rask in terms of slotting down to the fourth line is his $4 million salary. Especially as new contracts pressure the Hurricanes salary upward, that rate does not fit into a fourth line role.
Derek Ryan — Fourth line forward: I said recently that Derek Ryan is the latest in a long line of underdog heroes turned scapegoats because of being overslotted in the lineup. When Francis failed to add a top 6-capable playmaking center during the offseason, Derek Ryan suddenly found himself slotted into a third line center role. What is more is that with the first two slots occupied by scoring-lite top centers in Staal and Rask, the Hurricanes really needed offensive pro
Capable deep depth
The #13 slot is one that a team ideally wants to fill with an inexpensive veteran. Even if there are better young players capable of filling this slot, they are better-served playing 18-20 minutes per night in the AHL versus sitting in the press box at the NHL level. As such, it makes sense to have one inexpensive veteran capable of filling the #13 slot.
Joakim Nordstrom — #13 forward: Joakim is everything one could ask for defensively. He is a capable penalty killer. He is fast and aggressive on the forecheck and competes in all three zones on every shift. The issue with Nordstrom is the lack of offense. On a team that is loaded with fire power in the top 6 maybe Nordstrom quietly fits on the forth line, but more and more so in today’s NHL a decent amount of offensive ability is required for any regular forward slot. As such, Nordstrom comes up short with only 2 goals and 2 assists in 66 games.
Phil Di Giuseppe — #13 forward: Phil Di Giuseppe has matured nicely as a defensively trustworthy forward who finishes checks and hounds the puck. But somewhere along the way his offensive upside evaporated. With a meager 1 goal and 2 assists in 33 games, he is the second of three forwards that I slot as good, capable #13 forwards who can step into the lineup and be safe, sound and predictable but who do not produce enough that a team ideally wants them be regular forwards.
Marcus Kruger — #13 forward: As an experienced checking line center who played well in a difficult match up role in Chicago, Marcus Kruger is a capable depth forward. As with Di Giuseppe and Nordstrom, the issue is that today’s NHL just does not have room for players who do not score at all, and that is about where Kruger has checked in for the 2017-18 season with only 1 goal and 5 assists in 56 games. Also out of line for his role is the $2.3 million that he is scheduled to earn in 2018-19. (His cost was only $1.5 million in 2017-18 despite a higher cap hit because Chicago paid the bonus part of his before shipping him to Las Vegas.)
Netting it out
While the Hurricanes depth has improved over the past couple years, arguably the team is still short a couple true top 9 forwards. But more significant than debating whether a certain player is a #9 or #10 forward is the fact that the team is light in terms of raw offensive production both in terms of players who do slot into the top 9 for sure and also with the players who might play up into that role.
If I slot the current roster based on 2017-18 play, my depth chart goes like this…
Aho/____/Teravainen
____/Staal/Lindholm
Skinner/____/Williams
McGinn/Rask/Ryan/Stempniak
#13–Nordstrom, Di Giuseppe, Kruger
What also jumps out is that it is unclear how the team’s top 3 forwards Staal, Skinner and Aho fit together in a top 6. He is a top 6 talent-wise, but I just do not see him slotting next to Staal on a line that matches up against other teams’ best scoring lines. One way to get Skinner into the top 6 and playing with scoring-capable line mates is if the team adds a center this summer, but as a player whose game is to play with the puck on his stick, not receive and finish, I am not sure Skinner meshes with a playmaking type center that traditionally carries and distributes the puck. The TSA line is fine, but I think it takes a more offensive center (or Aho moving to center) for Aho and Teravainen to push another level higher offensively.
If the Hurricanes find themselves out of the playoff chase before the end of the season, I would be anxious to invest at least a few games with Aho centering Skinner and Teravainen. In terms of building a pure scoring line that would be it, but I am skeptical that the trio would mesh with Skinner’s tendency to keep the puck despite being more finisher than distributor. But at a minimum, it is worth giving the team’s three best offensive players a run of games together to see if they can figure it out.
Also worth noting is that Victor Rask is capable of rebounding and being a capable even if not spectacular third line center, but he has not adequately filled that role in 2017-18 because of his lack of scoring.
What say you Caniacs?
1) Do you agree with my assessment that the current forward group is still light 1-2 top 9 scoring forwards?
2) What configuration would you try, if any, to get Jeff Skinner into a slot with more higher-end offensive players on his line? And more broadly, how would you slot the current forward roster?
3) Which, if any, of the players that I have slotted at depth forward couple play a more significant role?
Go Canes!
1. This is why we are outside looking in. Ifs and buts I realize, but had the offense been addressed this offseason we’d likely have 5-6 more wins and be comfortably in a wild card or #3 divisional spot. I also think added offense would have taken pressure off Darling as a 1st time starter, and our forwards would be slotted more appropriately. It’s a domino effect.
2. Trade Skinner this summer. How many times have we had this conversation regarding where he fits on a line? Let’s be blunt, he’s somewhat selfish with the puck and hasn’t bent enough in his “game” to gel with line mates of any type (besides some of our passive players, which works for a short stretch only to disappear). This is exactly why Skinner has never been a 1st liner despite his goal scoring. Back in the day all we heard about was getting E. Staal decent wingers, and I think Skinner despite being a decent winger was a huge part of that trend of not clicking. Fast forward, we’ve already seen Aho, Turbo and others produce consistently on varying lines. The line for Skinner is, it’s not them…it’s you.
3. I think PDG, Nordy and Kurger are accurately placed and should not be playing higher than #13 unless one of them scores more.
1. I agree with this as my assessment on the defense was very close to this. I had Rask, Stempniak, and McGinn as 4th line guys instead of fringe 3rd liners. We need to get 2 strong offensive players.
2. Give Skinner some reliable and talented line mates for once. Tell him he doesn’t have to do it on his own. See how the line goes and make our assessment during the season. He hasn’t had talented line mates in a long time.
Skinner scored 37 goal last year with the same guys you say aren’t good enough. It Jeff that’s at issue this year. Skinner will always, and has always, played his game when he wants to. I’d be more than happy to trade him for something we could use.
1. Absolutely agree that we are 2-3 scorers light right now.
2. I’m starting to agree with live_free that trading Skinner might be our best move. He certainly has the value to get a return and he doesn’t really slot well anywhere right now. He’s extremely dynamic and fun to watch when he gets his figure skating going but I get extremely frustrated watching him make 1-2 moves too many trying to dangle the puck through 2-3 defenders by himself. Also, with as good of a sniper as he can be he seems more interested these days in teeing the puck up and taking clappers instead.
Overall I agree with your assessment about how our current forwards should slot; except you forgot McGinn. I love that kid; I think a Rask/Ryan/McGinn line could be a really solid depth scoring 4th line. I also think McGinn is capable of being a competent 3rd liner; I especially like him with Williams. I think he was unanimously underrated coming into this year and if you factor in all of the shots he’s had off the post he could easily be in the mid to high teens in goals right now. Plus he brings a physical edge that we are sorely lacking beyond him and Staal.
3. As stated above I think McGinn still has another gear or at the very least plays with enough heart that slotting him up on the 2nd or 3rd line could really ignite a spark. I like Nordstrom as a good #13; he’s great on defensively and on the PK despite being very light offensively. I’m indifferent on PDG and Kruger and don’t see Stempniak being re-signed.
I added McGinn to the 4th line group. Thanks for keeping me honest.
I agree that McGinn could slot higher. Many teams have a player or even 2 who are a little light on scoring in their top 9, and it can work fine. The issue with the Hurricanes is that they are just light across the board — do not really have pure scoring 1st line, getting nothing from 4th line, a little light elsewhere.
Rask is another wild card. The 2017-18 version of him is unfortunately a great 4th-line center who scores plenty for that role and brings solid 2-way play. But he is only a year-ish removed from being a capable 3rd-line center so a rebound to that level is not out of the question.
1) As of today–yes. Given that the forwards are not as dynamic as many in the league, this season’s struggles are really not about the forwards. If Darling is .500 wins/losses, then we wouldn’t be too concerned with the forwards. Darling would be .500 if the D had contributed more offensively. Those are the two big issues. Remember the expectations were that Darling would be league average or better AND that Slavin would be in the second-tier of Norris candidates. With one the team is ahead in the wild card race this year, with both Carolina is battling for 3rd in the division. For better or worse, the team was built to win with Darling and Slavin being key drivers of success (and Faulk getting his usual 15 goals). That hasn’t happened. Now I agree that the offseason might see some additions to the forwards, which would make the team better. But I am not going to confuse that with the causes for the struggles this season. So in a perfect world, the answer to 1) is yes the Canes are a forward light. In the real world the addendum is that the forwards are doing about what was expected. Darling has not and the D has not provided the offense that was expected.
2) If we are talking about this year, the current configuration makes sense. I think Wallmark is just about acclimated and should start clicking, which might make him that elusive center that works with Skinner.
Now if we are talking offseason and 18-19, then I agree with live_free that Skinner should/could be traded. On NHL radio the talking heads were saying that Montreal is where Colorado was this season with Duchene. Since Pacioretty was apparently shopped, Montreal will likely have to move him or look inept. I think Skinner and a D-man would be a fair trade for Pacioretty and a draft pick (more about this below). As armchair GM, I would be happy with trading Skinner and Fleury for Pacioretty and a second round pick as well as swapping first round picks.
I think the other offseason option, and this would happen if no trades occur, is to overpay to make sure Carolina signs JVR. He would make the 18-19 lineup solid on all three lines.
JVR/Aho/TT
Foegele/Staal/Williams (I was at the Checkers’ game Sunday and saw what others have mentioned–Foegele plays like Nordstrom but is a MUCH BETTER finisher/shooter)
Skinner/Necas/Lindholm
Rask/Wallmark/McGinn
Those lines could be used in the 12 minutes each at even strength model that I think Carolina will excel at. I admit I don’t know if Skinner works with Necas and Lindholm, but theoretically they could open the ice for him to find more quality chances. The PP would have two strong units. Either Ryan or Nordstrom is not re-signed.
3) You don’t have Wallmark at all–I think he eventually fills Ryan and/or Rask’s role. He should score more than the former and is much less expensive than the latter, which could allow for Rask to be part of an offseason move and a way to free up some salary for a big free-agent acquisition. The other piece to all of this is who gets a shot next year from among the current Checkers. GMRF stated that several players would “be ready” next season. From what I saw Sunday, I would guess that Foegele and Zykov get long looks. As I stated above, Foegele definitely looks like he is fully ready to be Nordstrom+. I tried to pay closer attention to Zykov–he is strong on his skates, likes to play close to the net, and has an excellent wrist-shot. I could see him on a line with Skinner, if there is not a trade of 53, because Zykov can handle the puck but almost always is quick to move it to another player and then head to his position in front of the goalie. No one else among Charlotte’s forwards looks quite ready. Though I will say I was impressed with Bishop–whose name you never really hear. He also looks to be capable of being a depth forward who would be a strong penalty killer at the next level.
One more thing, and then I will end this interminable post. I mentioned above getting Montreal’s first rounder in 2018. I think Oliver Wahlstrom, who is projected to go between 6-8, is going to be a near elite right-winger. If the Canes could manage to get him, the 2020 Canes would look much like the Jets did Sunday night.
With no trades that lineup looks correct.
I’d bet Rask gets moved. Maybe to a cap floor team like Arizona. Zykov slides to Necas line and Skinner to the Staal line. Zykov would get a lot of PP time and be subbed out a lot during crunch time 5 v 5.
It’ll be interesting to see how HCBP handles the three LWs of JVR, Skinner, and Zykov. Non are plus players even if they score a lot.
A switch of draft picks with Montreal with Skinner and Patches involved is interesting. we’ll see how the lottery goes.
JVR i’m interested but he will break the bank. The tier 1 guys I think the Canes should be interested in but not rushing to sign a devastating long term contract with are JVR (LW) and James Neal (Lw/RW).
However I would also be curious to see if they could add multiple free agents from this tier – Perron, Stastny, Bozak, and Rick Nash. I mean I don’t care that Rick Nash has name recognition looking at his age and numbers the last few years there is just no way he can get paid more than Eric Staal’s last bounce back contract – a very reasonable 3.5m/season. So if Nash is in that price range – I think him + Stastny would add two veterans into the top 9 that help the younger players come along and can provide Justin Williams like production rather than rushing Necas and Foegele. Wallmark I think is definitely ready for at least the 4C next season having already played a full AHL season. Necas will either be Aho level good and come into camp as a can’t-miss addition or he could probably benefit from some time in Charlotte.
I had wrote something very similar on another post. So I agree with your assessment. We need two bold moves in FA
Can you imagine Tavares between the Fins and JVR on Staal line Wow I would write playoff bound in ink. LOL Everyone slots are now perfectly defined. Spend the money get it done Tm and Ron. I realize its a long shot but RF needs to go for it. Salary cap is not a problem and with our youth movement in full affect we have a lot of cheap young players with talent almost ready to come up.
Scenario #1
Aho/____/Teravainen Tavares (dreaming)
____/Staal/Lindholm JVR
Skinner/____/Williams Necas
Rask/Ryan/Stempniak McGinn/Walmark/Nordy
Trade Rask let Stemp and Ryan walk
scenario #2
Aho/____/Teravainen Necas
____/Staal/Lindholm JVR
Skinner/____/Williams Paul Stastny
Rask/Ryan/Stempniak McGinn/Walmark/Nordy
Trade Rask let Ryan an Stemp walk
Scenario 2:
I doubt we’d get a Center in that scenario. We put Aho as 1C and either Necas or Lindholm at 3C. Get a winger or two. Let Zykov and Foegele battle it out for the last winger spot. Nordy being F13.
Scenario 1 would be amazing but I would be surprised to see us pull that.
I would be really happy with something like:
JVR – Aho – Turbo
Patches – Staal – Lindholm
Foegele – Necas – Williams
Zykov – Wallmark – McGinn
1. I think we may well be a couple of top-9 scoring forwards light – and I think that is a much better discussion to have that the mythical “Quest for the holy 1C” that crops up in so many places.
That said, I don’t think being light is necessarily keeping us out of the playoffs. Except for defensive whoopsies made by forwards, D-men, and goalies alike I think this team has it in itself to be a solid playoff team.
But when you let in a goal, particularly early and even more particularly on something “soft”, the complexion of the game changes. And I really think our lack of offensive production is more a product of having to chase the game than a lack of effective scorers.
2. Skinner likes to do things with the puck – and sometimes too much. His best play is when the puck is on his stick for no more than a stride or two. He needs an offensively minded center who is responsible in all 3 zones and plays with an edge. That center is Lindholm – and I don’t know if we have seen Lindholm and Skinner on the same line. Peters uses Lindholm in other roles than this. But I think Skinner would really shine on the wing of Lindholm.
3. Nordstrom may appear offensive limited, but he never really got many chances playing with Kruger and right now he appears to be gripping the stick too tightly. He has a good chance to be solid depth scoring plus he is a beast on the PK and also blocking shots as a F. I do think he is our most underrated forward.
1. According to your analysis there are 3 top nine slots open. I agree with that as well as with the six forwards you have opted to slot in the top nine.
2. I won’t try to outsmart you or any of the other site contributors as far as members of individual lines are concerned. As far as Sinner is concerned, I would be very careful about “unloading” him as I feel he is an essential element in developing our offensive game. My take on Skinner is that he has played with a menagerie of different linemates which has made his job of assimilating into some sort of cohesive role very difficult. Also, I believe other teams look at him as our one real scoring threat. Thus when he is on the ice they concentrate their defensive efforts pretty much solely on Skinner. If Skinner was placed with higher quality forwards (forwards who at least represent a fair amount of scoring threat), then his offensive value would be maximized. As far as Skinner’s defense goes, one contributing negative factor may be that he is trying too hard and just needs to get a coach to get him to play a little more under control and only worry about his role on defense.
3. Replace the players you have designated if at all possible. Of the three DiGuiseppe is the one who might have more upside than he has shown this season.
really agree with what CT said… if our D had not slipped some then maybe Darling would not have crashed… but both of those is why we are here now.
Scoring forwards are great, but I don’t think we lack that as much as scoring D. Hopefully that is getting better.
On paper, I really like the thought of skinny aho and tt together. If all were clicking that would be cool to watch… but somehow I don’t think it would work.
1. I agree we are short two top-nine forwards.
2. I mostly agree with your slotting. I predict we will acquire RNH this summer to center Aho & Turbo. I think Rask (he should rebound next year) slots as the 3rd-line center with Skinner. We need a power or speed forward (Mark Stone or Michael Grabner?) to help open the ice or at least be effective on the boards and in front of the net.
1) Totally agree.
2) The best part about slotting it out is that the Canes have multiple multi-position players. Does it work better to use Lindholm as the 3rd C and sign/trade for more wingers? Even if you want to get more left wingers could Terevainen be a future 3C? I think if the Canes acquire centers we can see Aho stay at wing longer but if they acquire wingers it’s fine to move some guys back to C. Regardless there are options and honestly the Canes just need to bring 2-3 (not saying that is easy or cheap) top 9 forwards preferably 1 of them being a top 3 forward. Once they do that I honestly believe this team becomes top 3 in metro even with the rest being largely status quo.
Finally to the people suggesting Skinner as someone to use in a trade – I don’t agree. We need more offense and sending out Skinner isn’t going to help that. Again using the back to back defending champs as a comparable – we need our Phil Kessel on the 3rd line and that is Jeff Skinner right now. He is part of the solution not problem.