Two days ago for Tuesday’s Daily Cup of Joe, I looked at limitations for a number of players relative to the most optimistic projections for them.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe aims to strike a balance and goes the other direction in listing seven things that I really like about the current state of the Carolina Hurricanes (not in order of importance).
1) Budget space
What exactly the team’s internal budget will be for the 2018-19 season and beyond under new owner Tom Dundon is unclear. But what is know is that the Hurricanes currently sit in 30th out of 31 NHL teams, barely ahead of the Arizona Coyotes, in terms of spending versus the salary cap for the 2017-18 season. New contracts that kick in for Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce in 2018-19 and the need to re-sign Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm will use up some of the available cap space, but the Hurricanes are still in an enviable position in terms of having the flexibility to add players with sizable cap hits.
2) Sebastian Aho
Is he better at center or at wing? Will he hit any bumps in the road if he transitions full-time to center? Does he need another higher-end forward added to the mix to reach his full potential in terms of offensive production? There are questions around the details of Sebastian Aho’s situation and results going forward, but what is unmistakable after only two years in the NHL is that he is already a very good NHL player. As such, he is a huge positive looking into the Hurricanes future.
3) Teuvo Teravainen as Robin
We could have a healthy debate as to the primary cause of Teuvo Teravainen’s emergence in 2017-18. Did he just have a great year? Has he simply matured as a player? Has Sebastian Aho boosted his level of play? Regardless, Teravainen seems primed to be a second capable player on a scoring line featuring Sebastian Aho, and that is a good thing going forward.
4) The starting point of Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce for building out a good blue line
As with Aho, we can nitpick various things like whether they bring quite enough offensively, whether they maybe took a small step down in 2018-19 relative to their breakout seasons in 2016-17 or whatever else. But as a pair of 23-year olds, the duo represents a great foundation for building out a strong blue line with some time to run.
5) The potential of the young blue line in total
At just about every check point along the way, I have noted that the Hurricanes young blue line has yet to emerge as an every-game strength that drives wins. And at some point, the group needs to cross that bridge and go from being ‘potential’ to ‘reality.’ But patience aside, the group continues to have the potential to be incredibly good if it can just put it all together. With Haydn Fleury joining the ranks of young players with significant NHL experience this season, the group already at the NHL level is significant, and there are still a few prospects below who can help.
6) The depth of the Hurricanes’ prospect pool
Sometimes the fan base maybe expects too much from prospects who have yet to even prove that they can hold down an NHL job. And while there are no guarantees on individual prospects, one has to like the volume/depth that the Hurricanes have right now. The team is just beginning to reach the point where Francis’ years of stockpiling and using extra draft picks pays dividends. In the next few years, the potential to fill at least depth roster spots with AHL call ups is at a recent high. If just a handful of players can do even better and become top half of the roster players, the future will be very bright.
7) New ownership
To be completely honest, I am not yet sure what to make of Tom Dundon. On the one hand, he has clearly demonstrated that he will make changes. Change was needed so that, at a conceptual level, is a good thing. On the other hand, the harder part is figuring out what the change and what to keep and not throwing the baby out with the bath water in the process. But again at a higher level, an ownership change was desperately needed. We had reached full ‘lame duck’ level for Peter Karmanos’ time as owner such that getting a fresh start was needed. So while reserving judgment on the specifics, I believe the team benefits from charting a course into a new future.
What say you Canes fans?
Despite the disappointing outcome for the 2017-18 season, what things do you really like about the current state of the Carolina Hurricanes?
Go Canes!
The best thing right now is having a new owner who can bring financial stability and outside-the-box thinking to the organization.
Financial stability in the essence we now have a better shot at landing the pieces we need (or re-signing the pieces we need to keep).
Outside-the-box thinking in the aspect that traditional ways of business don’t always work. Dundon does not operate with antiquated thinking and his business model may very well be cutting edge in the hockey world. The public and media may be chiding him now, but he could prove a successful business model that other teams envy in a few years (for once making Carolina the referred “talk of the town”). We need to give him time to see.
There is the simpler upside, having a team in Raleigh until at least 2025.
There could have been legitimate reasons to move the team if no owner could be found who was willing to commit to keeping the team North Carolina.
So the team has another 5+ years to become a stable in a growing metropolis and hopefully reassert itself as a force to be reckoned with in the nHL.
New and better ways to interact with the fans ad provide entertainment are part of it, but ultimately it comes down to the product on the ice.
But just having that chance is a positive.
My response will have an international flavor.
2) Aho tied for 9th for total points at the World Championships in 2017–playing center on a Finnish team that didn’t have Barkov and Laine. He was tied for 3rd in assists with Nathan MacKinnon. I am 100% convinced that he is top-line center material.
3) Teravainen should be a consistent 60-65 point player going forward. Here is the list of players born since 1980 who have scored 25 or more points in WJC U20 play:
Alexander Nylander, Jordan Schroeder, Jordan Eberle, Nikita Filatov, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Brayden Schenn, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Ellis, and Teravainen.
Given this season, I think it is fair to say that Teravainen is much more like Eberle and Schenn than like Schroeder or Filatov.
6) Staying with the international competition theme.
Lucas Wallmark is a point-per-game producer in both the U18 (5 games/5 points) and U20 (14 games/14 points).
Aleksi Saarela has also produced exactly a point per game in 16 combined games between U18 and U20.
Point-per-game production is not as strong an indicator as being in the top 25 all-time like Teravainen, but it is a fair predictor of NHL competence, especially when combined with success in the AHL which both players are having.
Further down the pipeline, Stelio Mattheos scored 4 goals in 5 U18 games this year.
This is just three examples of players who should have a good chance at making it in the NHL. When combined with Martin Necas, who appears to be a near-elite talent, and Luke Martin, who is the player who stabilized Michigan’s D and helped them reach the Frozen Four, the future is quite promising.
7) Ironically, while others are skeptical of players, coaches, and former GMRF, I am most skeptical of ownership. I hope I am wrong.
What do I like about the current state of the Hurricanes? Quite a bit, actually.
I have said previously, and still maintain that we have an impressive lineup of scoring talent on the big team roster. We recently witnessed a demonstration that we have a depth of scoring talent in Charlotte as well.
We have a talented, but inexperienced and unbalanced defense corps. I say unbalanced because we need our offensive defensemen partnered with defenseminded and capable (big, strong and mean) mates.
A new owner, a new GM and a new coach can change the team culture. A few effective scoring catalysts like Darren Archibald. Milan Lucic, Conor Murphy, would make our scoring potential increase exponentially.
1. Budget space
Although we have budget space for 2018-19 let’s not forget the big hits we have to plan and budget for the following season: Aho, Turbo and any attempts to re-sign Skinner.
2. Aho
I am a big fan of Aho; he’s definitely my favorite player on the team. But with his move to center one issue has become apparent to me. Unless he is moving quickly on transition he has trouble pushing the puck through the neutral zone – simply not big or strong enough. There have been turnovers and bad reactive decisions that have led to the puck quickly going the other way. I am not sure what the corrective action.
3. Turbo
To borrow from above, Turbo will be a consistently inconsistent (i.e., streaky) 60-70 point player. And if Aho makes Turbo better than the inverse must also be true – Turbo must make Aho better by drawing attention away from Aho and being there to collect passes and rebounds. A classic case of (1 + 1) > 2.
4. S&P
This has been the case now for the past two seasons. I love these guys and glad we have them.
5. Potential of blue line
Again, we have been saying this for the past two seasons. This needs to go from potential to reality soon, I think.
6. Depth of prospect pool
I question this one. For the blue line I think we only have two legitimate NHL prospect – McKeown and Bean. All the others are career AHLers. That’s thin.
At goalie, I like Ned a lot but when I was last in Charlotte I talked with a member of the organization and the word there is that it is not expected he will get a legitimate shot at the NHL because of his size. His W-L record is solid but his other standard stats (GAA and S%) are not great – but he backs up an offensive powerhouse and can let in goals and still win. One thing that struck me is that with his size when he is on the post shutting down the short side his shoulder fits right under the cross bar and there is no space the entire length of the post to squeeze a puck through. And he is quick. But I don’t see true depth there.
Finally at forwards, we are developing a logjam of talent there – so yes deep. But how many are legitimate NHL players (we know of two apparently) and how many can be AHL stars without having realistic NHL chances (I think the bulk of them). I do see a lot of good trade chips there and I think that might be part of the value of the AHL depth.
7. New owner
The more I read, the more I have come around to ct’s perspective on Mr. Dundon. I believe less in his business acumen and more in his luck in entering (and defining) a shady business that succeeds because it employs bait-and-switch with interest rates that legally exceed state usury laws (for a read on his business model – https://jalopnik.com/the-devastating-loophole-that-sticks-car-buyers-with-in-1823885194) and then repackaging a la “The Big Short” and selling out before the nasty stuff hits the fan.
He does have a big wallet, which is a plus, but was he a good businessman with a set of skills honed in the trenches? I wonder. Plus he praises highly the Patriots’ approach – with a system set by a near-tyranical coach.
Interesting times.
tj–thanks for the link. As Mr. Berra would say–it’s deja vu all over again. That article reads like so many from 2007.
I am not quite as pessimistic as you about the blue line depth. I think Martin might have been a steal. Also, if Matt’s resource is to be believed, then De Jong might be a late-round pick who has potential. That source said De Jong had “elite” skating. A 6’5″ d-man might develop into a decent player.
Agree on Ned. The future goalie will have to come from Booth/Helvig/Makiniemi. But all seem to be making progress.
Finally, I look at CBJ. Their forwards are mostly mid-round picks. I think the 2020-2021 roster will have 5 or more from the current prospects (Necas, Zykov, Foegele, Roy, etc.) and, hopefully, this year’s first rounder. That will still leave quite a few as career AHLers.
1. Like the most: The new owner. Without getting out from under a lame duck ownership situation where saving money and fiscal restraint was the main feature of operations the franchise was stagnant. The new owner opens up the chances for success on the ice.
2. 2nd best like: The prospect of both Slavin and Pesce improving the offensive side of their game. They both have shown flashes of being able to join the attack (not just shoot from the blue line). Improvement in this part of their game should also help them on the defensive side of their game.
3. General likes: a) Teravainen’s scoring touch and his ability to be a plus player on what has been a minus team. b) (let me catch my breath before this next one) the possibility that we have a fourth line already on the roster that can score with Derek Ryan as the answer for our fourth line center position and Stempniak and McGinn on the wings. c) The emergence of Foegele and Zykov and bonafide candidates to make the team next year and improve its scoring production. d) a chance to refresh our head coaching position to breath a fresh look at things on the ice and provide a reason for the fans to become optimistic on the direction the team is taking. (Note: this is not intended to slam Peters (I am not a Peters fan), it is just intended as a chance for a new beginning. If management decides Peters is the coach for next year, then I will be all in for him because he then becomes part of the new beginning.)
I also like the current state of the Hurricanes.
I know people have reservation about TD, but he does have deep pockets and is not afraid to make changes if things are not working. That is what business people do.
It remains to be seen if all the RF drafting works. Its one thing to be AHL, and another to be NHL. I do feel we have guys that can move up. Personally I think we have some good pieces coming up. I still believe RF was let go because he was too conservative. I am sure no action at the trade deadline convinced TD that things were not changing fast enough, and I suspect RF had the green light. Patience vs, impatience.
The new owner is what has me upbeat for the future. IMO, the things we need will be addressed. I think Derek Ryan will be resigned. 4th line center, pretty good.
Aho, Turbo, Staal, S&P, TVR, all great.
Necas, Zykov, Foegele, Roy, etc. coming, also good. McGinn is grit and if it were not for all the post would have considerably more points. He stays as well.
So, we do not need that many pieces. A top line forward, maybe a D if we can trade Faulk and not sure what to do about Darling. But certainly need somebody who can play goal. I believe Booth is the best thing we have coming.
Even if the Hurricanes have a relatively quiet offseason which I do not expect them to have, the articles going into next year are going to more or less mirror the ones from this past summer. The team is still in that same position, if not marginally better off due to the additional sample size allowing us to make better guesses on things like: Terevainen being closer to a top 6 than 3rd line forward, Aho is good enough that he didn’t have a sophmore slump, Lindholm is consistently a versatile 40-50 pt player, and the Canes needed Justin Williams AND some.
It was a young team that maybe the greater hockey media pegged as having arrived too soon. This season they simply stalled out rather than move forward, but that doesn’t mean next season will result in the same trajectory. I would bet on the team to make positive steps forward even with more or less the entire same cast (but hoping for changes).