In case you missed it with the Fourth of July holiday, the Hurricanes announced yesterday that the team had traded a fifth round pick acquire center Marcus Kruger from the Las Vegas Golden Knights. I offered my initial thoughts on that deal in this article.
And if you were away from Hurricanes hockey for the entirety of the four-day holiday weekend, you have even more catching up to do. I offered my thoughts on Justin Williams’ signing in a part 1 with initial thoughts and part 2 with a deeper dive and followed up with a similar article for the other four depth players signed on Saturday’s opening of free agency.
With most of the major players off the board after four days of free agency and a decent number of trades completed, today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at all of the deals completed thus far, and identifies ‘deals I would steal.’
Important to note is that I am NOT suggesting that Francis could have had all of these deals. There are a few specifically where he had zero chance with players choosing a destination for a reason. And there are likely others that he similarly might not have had any reasonable chance of winning. But for the sake of discussion, I will not get bogged down in whether they were possible in building the list.
The overriding theme of the list is adding more offense on the cheap. My math still has the Hurricanes stuck at eight top 9 forwards and ideally needing a bit more offense, so not surprisingly that is what I went looking for.
NHL free agent signings I would steal
(Not in priority order)
David Desharnais – Rangers: One year at $1 million
He is undersized, coming off a ‘meh’ at best 2016-17 season and is not a pure high-end scorer, but for $1 million for a one-year risk, I would have taken a chance on the veteran. He is skilled and has a decent dose of the playmaking element that the Hurricanes need. He is only two years removed from 52 and 48-point seasons in 2013-14 and 2014-15 respectively and perhaps just needs a change of scenery.
Sam Gagner – Canucks: Three years at $3.15 million per year
He is the closest thing to a pure playmaking center on the free agency market this year. His game is not nearly as well-rounded as the elite centers, but he rates well in terms of sheer offense. The three-year term is maybe a year long, and the $3.15 million not a sheer bargain like a few other deals listed, but if given the opportunity, I would have leaned forward a bit for a player who posted a 50-point season in 2016-17 despite averaging only 13:42 of ice time.
Mike Cammalleri – Kings: One year at $1 million
Cammalleri looks very much like a player who hand-picked a return to a former home with minimal regard for the contract, so he probably was not available to the Hurricanes. But if he was, he is similar to Desharnais as a player who has the potential for some scoring upside with virtually zero risk because of the low salary and one-year contract term. Cammalleri was not worth his previous contract (hence his buyout), but his 40-ish point pace (prorated for 82 games) is solid production for his contract and looks dirt cheap when one looks at the 38 points that Cammalleri had in only 42 games in 2015-16.
Patrick Sharp – Chicago: One year at $1 million
Sharp very clearly chose a return to Chicago over more money, so no way was this deal or anything even close to it available for Francis. But if it was, Sharp looks a lot like Desharnais and Cammalleri as veteran depth scoring on the cheap.
NHL trades I would steal
Marcus Johansson for a second and a third-round draft pick in 2018
If I had to identify one trade where maybe Francis missed, this would be it. Again, who knows that the negotiating terms were, but this deal was Washington cutting salary and collecting what it could. Since the deal was made in-division, it seems reasonable to speculate that the Hurricanes could also have won Johansson with a modestly higher bid. After seeing the Johansson trade, I described him as Duchene-lite. Johansson probably does not have as high of a ceiling offensively as Duchene, but he had a huge 58 points in 2016-17 and rates out as a consistent mid-40s scorer for the previous three seasons. Johansson is slated to make $4.75 million per year for the two years remaining on his contract, so he is not the bargain that a couple other players are. But with nothing seeming to materialize on the trade front for a bigger name like Galchenyuk or Duchene, Johansson could have been a pretty decent bridge to the future in the form of a player who has the playmaking skills identified when I set specific priorities over a month ago.
Jonathan Drouin for a top defenseman prospect and a conditional second round pick
For me, Drouin actually has a few more question marks than a couple other high-end forwards available. But as they say, beggars can’t be choosers. The Hurricanes equivalent for this deal would likely have been to part with Haydn Fleury which would be tough to do, but if given the chance to add a potential top-line forward for only futures, I think you just take it.
Based on recent history, there likely are winners to be had
Important to note is that there are regularly winners found every year in the bargain bin. Last season, Sam Gagner’s big 50-point season came on an astonishing one-year deal for $650,000. Michael Grabner put up 40 points in 76 games to provide solid depth scoring for the Rangers in the first year of a two-year deal for only $1.65 million annually. Just $950,000 for a one-year deal for former-Hurricane Kris Versteeg netted an impressive 37 points in 69 games for a better than 40-point full-season pace if prorated. On the trade front, the Oilers acquired Patrick Maroon from the Ducks in an inexpensive housecleaning deal for only a fourth-round pick a mid-tier prospects. Maroon went to post a solid 42 points for only a $2 million salary cap hit.
Common among those four teams that found strong depth scoring on the cheap is that all of them made the playoffs. Maybe more significantly, of the four only the Rangers probably entered the season with a chance of making the playoffs at higher than 50 percent.
From a Hurricanes angle…
After meandering away for a bit, I think there is an interesting Hurricanes angle to all of this. As a team that finished 20th overall in the NHL in scoring, the Hurricanes could obviously benefit from adding a bit more offensive fire power for the 2017-18 season. Justin Williams does help but is not what I would consider to be the high-end offensive catalyst that I ideally wanted. As such, it seems reasonable to think that the team could benefit from adding as many potential scoring options as possible hoping to find a Gagner, Maroon, Grabner, Versteeg or similar. But instead, since signing Justin Williams at the start of free agency, Francis has been spending forward roster spots adding players seemingly with minimal offensive upside in Josh Jooris and Marcus Kruger. The ‘for’ logic says that adding good players without to much bias toward scoring versus defense improves the team. The ‘against’ logic worries that the Hurricanes will again struggle to score and that they will lose one of the final playoff slots to a team that took a shot on offensive upside and found a winner.
What say you Caniacs?
Which of my deals would you steal? Do you see any others that you like?
Does anyone else worry a bit that in spending a couple forward slots on checking line players like Jooris and Kruger that the Hurricanes will ultimately lose to a team that takes a bit more risk aiming for scoring upside?
From the picked over free agent pool, do you see any players left who could have substantial offensive upside for a reasonable price? Do you think there is any chance that Francis would pursue such a player with 13 forwards already signed and Di Giuseppe already qualified and likely to be signed?
Go Canes!
Not really worried. We solidified our 4th line and will be much harder to play against compared to the last few.
Besides Gagner and Johansson, I don’t believe any of those deals provide what we truly need…playmaker and/or power forward.
Hearing a rumor (you know how those go) on another site that Canes might still be in talks with Chicago about taking on Hossa’s cap hit, possibly to receive a top prospect and pick in return for depth defenseman (maybe Carrick?). Hossa will be on LTIR, so not 100% certain on financial implications there. But could the prospect be DeBrincat and a 1st? And could this be an offensive prospect we can then flip to another cap starved team, say to Edmonton for playmaker RNH…or to Colorado for power forward Landeskog?
Regardless, I think GMRF has one more move in store.
Would definitely steal the Johansson deal. Seems like a solid discount for 45-50 points at a minimum. The Desharnais signing would be a reasonable gamble. Not sure I would steal any other deals as they all have as much downside as upside.
I don’t worry about the Kruger and Jooris signings. You wrote back in May about Eric Tulsky. My guess is that both these signings met two criteria: 1) Peters liked the players for the roles he has planned for them; 2) Tulsky supported the moves based on deep analysis of how both players change the game when on the ice. CanesCountry linked to a good article that stated appreciation for Kruger’s contribution to the Blackhawks’ success. The author pointed out that with a one-goal lead in crucial games, Kruger was the player sent onto the ice. The reality is that Carolina is not able to spend (and hasn’t had the No. 1 pick needed) to turn the team into Pittsburgh, Washington, or Toronto. But if a Jooris/Kruger/Nordstrom line can neutralize the likes of Crosby/Malkin, Backstrom/Ovechkin, Matthews/Marner/Nylander for 5 or 6 shifts per game, then Carolina can get a few more points in the standings.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see another addition. Several on this and other Canes’ sites have mentioned Jokinen. This past season was not stellar. But the prior three years JJ had tons of assists. The Canes might take a chance if he is available for 2yrs/5.5M.
I also think we might see one of the prospects surprise with a 40-point season. As the OP mentions, it looks like only 8 of top 9 spots are certain. Wallmark or Zykov might make the opening roster. There is also the possibility that RF and BP want Saarela to be 100% before they give him his NHL debut. The organization has options that haven’t existed in years. Between the use of analytics and the development of prospects, the potential for 17-18 is much better than it was at this time last year.
I’d do Jussi as an interchangeable C/W for the 3rd line. Not a bad pickup short-term to allow fellow Finn TT a transition to center. Not exactly the size we seem to need, but I’d be okay with this for now considering price.
1. Sure, I would have taken Johanssen for a second and third round draft pick if that was available to me. What we don’t know is whether Washington would have given us the same deal as they did New Jersey. New Jersey is probably expected to finish lower in the standings and is no threat to be in the playoffs. Therefore, their draft picks are worth more than what the Canes expected draft picks will be. Second, the Canes probably are considered much more of a division rival this coming year than the Devils which would cause Washington to prefer to trade with them. Third, if Johanssen was so valuable, why was the market for him so light that all Washington could get for him was a second and third. For these reasons I do not fault RF for not getting this deal. I don’t think it was available to him to make.
2. The Kruger and Jooris moves were necessary to shore up the penalty kill. The penalty kill fell off drastically last year with the departure of Stalberg. Since the presence of the likes of McClement, McGinn, DiGuiseppe, Wallmark and Nordstrom were available during this period of decline, it is evident to me they were not a satisfactory solution to maintaining the previous high level of performance. They got their jobs by default because we had no better. None of them put up offensive numbers that exceeded what Jooris and Kruger put up so improving this aspect of team play was necessary. With the addition of a new goalie who is expected to improve goaltending and retaining our entire core of defensemen it also seems prudent to not dilute the benefit of better goaltending play by not bringing the penalty kill back up to a respectable level of play. RF did what he should have done and what his coach stated to be a necessary repair. Also, I am not in accord with the premise that we’ve virtually done nothing to improve the offense. I seem to recall that we signed Justin Williams, a 24 goal scorer last year and probably the best scoring forward free agent available who plays an all-around game, to address getting some additional scoring. If you want to lament that RF “missed” on someone like Marleau, well that’s your provocative, but I’m willing to accept that RF either didn’t think the three years at the price per year was worth it or that Marleau would even consider coming to Carolina at any price. I can imagine what the cry would be when it comes time to resign all the young core talent we have and we have to “dump” a young defenseman or forward because we have used up all our cap room. Someone like Marleau at that time would be here at the age of 39 or 40 with a contract we couldn’t get rid of without buying him out (another Semin).
3. I don’t see any scoring talent in the remaining free agent pool. If we want further scoring help it will have to be through a trade. Further, it will have to be through a trade involving us giving up draft picks and/or non-roster prospects and/or a roster player. Since we do not want (IMO) to give up a roster defenseman, that means if we have to give up a roster player in a deal for a scorer, the player to give up will have to be a roster forward (lose some scoring). For example, Galchenyuk from Montreal for Rask plus draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s). Such a deal would give us an incremental increase in scoring, but is the cost too much or worth it?
I know puckgod will have some “reservations” (to put it mildly) with my thoughts here, especially in regards to scoring. But I am looking forward to this season optimistically and having a Coke, beer, or some other appropriate livation with him while attending the playoff games here in Raleigh at the end of THIS season.
My disclaimer: Remember when reading the above, it was not written by someone on the level of Nostrodamus, Isaac Newton, Albert Einstein or the like.
Totally agree that Kruger and Jooris will make the 4th line very tough to play against. Offensive studs matter but so does great defense. I do believe that the Jooris signing was influenced by what Ray Whitney was seeing as a scout out west. The only thing I kind of question about the Jooris signing is Viktor Stalberg is still out there as a free agent. Maybe he wanted too much term but was great on the 4th line. I would have liked to see him back but I am sure RF did that trade-off.
I think the probability is much lower now but a trade or fleecing some team that gets into cap trouble could still occur for a scoring forward. Jokinen could help (and I would like to have him) but that would pretty much eliminate any AHL call-up potential unless we trade some lower level forwards.
First and foremost, shout out to ctcaniac and RedRyder, I agree with both of you. While yes, in a dream world, it would be nice to get Johansson or Drouin (or Galchenyuk or Duchene), but I think we’re missing the big point that the Hurricanes clearly now have an identity and they’re building towards that. Defensively.
Even last year, there were reports about the Hurricanes being one of the toughest teams to play against. Then we added Williams, Kruger and van Riemsdyk, at least 2 of those 3 have similar reputations. We’re not going to be a scoring juggernaut by any means, but we are going to be a team that can shut any other team (not named McDavid) down. If Darling proves to be the goalie we’ve been craving, then who cares if we can’t score a lot of goals? We might have plenty of 1-0 and 2-1 games in our future, but with this incredible puck possession and defensive juggernaut that Ron Francis has put together, I think we’ll win a lot more of those games than we lose this year. We don’t have great offense. We might not even have good offense. It is acceptable, and I believe that it is more than enough to support our potentially ELITE defense.
Maybe the team identity isn’t one that everyone wanted our was expecting, but this is clearly what it is now. And I think its going to be fun watching the Hurricanes grind down and frustrate the hell out of the rest of the league.
P.S. FYI Nashville and Columbus didn’t have elite scorers either, just a lot of depth……hey wait a minute!
I’m not sure I’d steal any of the deals since I’m not sure how they fit into the Canes system. Just because they performed a certain way in another system doesn’t mean that translates to the Canes. I trust RF either tried and failed to make those deals or didn’t think they fit.
I really like the Krueger and Jooris signings. They essentially replace McClement and Stalberg. Not only does it improve our PK, but it helps our road game. One of the reasons we were so bad on the road was that we were terrible when we couldn’t dictate matchups. Ron said in one of his recent conferences that we spent way to much time in our own end on too many occasions. Our 4th line got matched up against 1st and 2nd lines and lost badly. Krueger and Jooris counteract that problem and drive possession. At home when we dictated matchups we were much better and scored more proficiently. IMO, this is where our scoring improvement will come from. If we spend more time in the offensive zone (like we did playing at home), we will score more goals. Our young forwards (Aho, TT, Lindholm) will get better and JW will add his points. Unless the AHL young guns can do this, they don’t belong on a fourth line. We are a playoff team as currently constructed IMO
Agree with your comments on the road struggles.
Best Peters could do was try to pair Staal’s line with Hainsey/Faulk to try to stabilize that, but then opposing coaches just cherry-picked Hainsey/Faulk when without help and also did well against any other match up that did not include Slavin/Pesce. The result was that the Canes were chasing match ups on the road all game and largely losing doing so.
I have a half-written blog on Kruger’s impact on Staal. I don’t actually agree that Kruger is going to intentionally take heavy lifting from Staal. Staal is one of 4-5 best checking line centers in the entire NHL. Peters will still use him in that role whenever possible. But the key difference is on the road having a better line to follow Staal’s with when opposing coaches try to dodge him.
I agree with you on Stalberg. I’ve read he wants to go back to Sweden to play. Also agree with your second paragraph.
One other comment. I think we may have already have the 1C and 2C in our prospect pool with Necas, Aho, Lindholm, TT. If not, then Bean’s development and projection are important. If he is who we think he might be, then RF can make the big trade when he is ready, ala Nashville. If Bean slots is as a top 4, we can trade one of our roster top 4 D for that 1C we are missing. That’s when we become Cup contenders, IMO
Good point on Bean and agree fabdou. He was impressive at the Summerfest. I really hate trading any of our D as I think it will be our identity. It is nice to know Bean is in the wings when the time comes. I would not count Roland McKeown out of the picture either.
Agree with fogger as well. I take a look at Dallas who had scoring like crazy. Was that the answer? A team needs both defense and offence to be effective. I think RF is being very smart with his choices.
Also generally like Jussi Jokinen for right $/term. He was not great in 2016-17 but Florida in general was an injury-plagued train wreck for most of the season. Jokinen is SO flexible. Can play any of 3 forward positions without much drop off and can also play either of special teams, take face-offs and checking or scoring line.
Companion question at this point would be who leaves to make room with 13 forwards already signed and Di Giuseppe still pending.
That’s a tough question. I would love to have Jussi Jokinen for the right $/term as well. DiGuiseppe will probably be 2 way contract with no room at NHL. McGinn has full out physical play (good for a 4th line). Nordstrom has been 4th line and did pretty well on PK but not much offensively. McGinn was protected, Nordstrom may have been protected as part of that 5th round draft pick protection. I would probably say McGinn gets the spot. Only opinion if this situation arises.
I agree that if DiG is signed to two-way, then he starts in Charlotte.
To answer Matt’s question a little more if JJ is signed, I think McG and Ryan are the 13/14 forwards know as healthy scratches to start the season. I would like to see JJ slotted as 3rd C due to his ability to produce goals for others and strong F/O %. If a LW gets injured, then McG. If a center, then Ryan–who could also give Williams a break if there are back-to-backs within a 10 day period.
Opening night might look like:
Aho/Staal/Lindholm
Skinner/Rask/Stempniak
Teravainen/Jokinen/Williams
Jorris/Kruger/Nordstrom
Meanwhile, the Checkers are conducting a year-long audition for spots on the opening night 18-19 roster. One on 4th line (Jooris) and one on 3rd line (Stempniak).
Even without JJ, both Canes and Checkers look much better than 6 months ago.
The general discussion has made me feel a bit more upbeat about the JJ and MK signings (and it is a good feeling).
The problem with any possible deal involving Hossa is simply that Chicago’s draft and prospect pool is practically a sprayground (extremely shallow).
They traded away all their prospects and picks to build the championship team of the last 10-ish years (and since they won two cups I can’t fault them too much, but there will inevitably come a time where they have to restock the system).
I don’t see what they can offer us for taking Hossa’s contract, other than maybe taking on 1 to 1.5 million of his contract (and we trade them a low round pick or one of our lower end forwards).
Hossa is a great player when not injured (he is on injury reserve right now) but he is no spring chicken and carries a significant cap hit for another 3 or 4 years I believe.
Even if Chicago takes part of his cap hit (unless it is 2 million or more), I am doubtful that this is a deal that will benefit the canes.
All of the above comments seem well thought out, reasonable, and realistic (breezy, fabdou, Matt, Fogger, Icecobra, ctcaniac, and live free…). You guys and all the others who contribute to this site (puckgod, david…, etc.) IMO make this site the best covering the Canes. Matt, IMO you do a really great job in coming up with topics that stir some give and take. You also put yourself out there up front and we all get our free shots at your reasoning and ideas. All of you just remember when you are reading my cr.p and bloviate endlessly that my tolerance for being correct has been statistically proven to be plus or minus infinity.
RR: agree with your last point about this being the best insight into Canes hockey my comments notwithstanding 🙂 Kudo’s to you, Matt.
I like our signings. Great insight fogger: GMRF has built this team from the backend out and defense is rightfully becoming our identity (and I’d add, our penalty kill) and we’re going to be even tougher to play against this year with (presumably) an upgrade in net and with our young players a year older. Look what OTT and NAS did in the playoffs with defence-minded teams. That’s exciting to think about.
I may be in the minority here, but I’m equally excited about our offense. It’s easy to forget how young many of our Forwards are and how much offensive upside our roster has: Aho, Lindy, TT, Rask, and even McGinn and PDG. Natural development (in aggregate) suggests we’re going to be better offensively this year, and we’ve now added a “finisher” in JW that will incrementally make this group that much better. No, we didn’t get a 1C this offseason, at least not yet, but that doesn’t mean we won’t score enough goals. Again, agreeing with fogger, in the what-really-matters-most goal-differential category, the combination of giving up fewer and scoring more means we’re going to be much improved.
I liked the Johansson deal the most, which would have given us another “finisher”, but I’m still not sure RF isn’t done making moves. I believe he is going to continue to opportunistically improve this team and I would not be surprised to see us trade some combination of an existing roster player plus futures/prospects for a Top 6/9 forward.
I’d steal the Johansson trade, too. But i could see GMRF pulling off somthing like that, depending on which teams are in Cap Hell in September, and what they offer us to take a bad contract.