Right now, the Carolina Hurricanes are blazing what feels like a new frontier, one in which they have a clear #1 goalie who is playing well.
The unpredictability of the position
The situation illustrates the unpredictability of the position. As I said on Twitter after Tuesday’s win that saw Curtis McElhinney stand on his head, play goalie while juggling three flaming hockey sticks and stop any and all shots simply with Jedi mind tricks…
He was not even on the list of possible options in June, July, August, September or even the first of October, but the Hurricanes suddenly have a starting goalie in Curtis McElhinney. #TakeWarning
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) November 28, 2018
And league-wide, it is no different.
Top 10 #NHL goalies: Save percentage (10+ GP)
Rinne NSH .942
Halak BOS .936
Andersen TOR .932
Rittich CGY .930
DeSmith PIT .927
Vasilevskiy TB .927
Gibson ANA .926
Varlamov COL .926
Greiss NYI .925
Bishop DAL .923
Campbell LA .923 pic.twitter.com/d0dJynlAIs— The Hockey News (@TheHockeyNews) November 27, 2018
Four of the top ten goalies entering play on Tuesday were not starters when the season began. Who had Greiss, Campbell, DeSmith and Rittich among the league’s best in their preseason predictions? In addition, McElhinney is now at .930, so that adds another.
On McElhinney’s current run and chances of it continuing
McElhinney entered the season expected to be a backup, but that is not because of his level of play in recent years. He had a stellar .934 Save Percentage and 2.15 Goals Against Average in 2017-18 with the Maple Leafs and a solid .917 Save Percentage in 2016-17 split between the Maple Leafs and Blue Jackets.
So it is important to note that McElhinney did not enter the 2018-19 as a run of the mill backup with backup-ish results over the past few years. Sure, the sample size was fairly small in a backup role, but McElhinney had been playing well for some time.
The positive here is that since he has been playing at a high level for awhile now, it is not inconceivable that he just keeps doing it.
The big questions: How many games are possible? And what is the best way to maximize?
There is always the question of whether a player who is playing well can keep it up, but as I have touched on in other articles, the bigger question for McElhinney could be what he can handle for workload. He is 35 years old only ever played in a backup role in teh NHL. As such, a normal season for him is 20ish games. The 15 games that he started in 2017-18 are the most he has started since the 2014-15 season. If McElhinney continues playing well, he will likely reach that total before Christmas.
The situation must be monitored and addressed by Head Coach Rod Brind’Amour, Goalie Coach Mike Bales and Curtis McElhinney himself. Brind’Amour will need to avoid greediness in focusing too much on the next individual game. The result of that error would very likely see McElhinney overused and burned out by the midway point of the season. Some combination of Mike Bales, strength and conditioning coach Bill Burniston and McElhinney himself must figure out how to keep him fresh with the heavier workload. Should he practice less and take some maintenance days to stay fresh with a heavier workload? What is the right training regimen to stay at a peak performance level? Can Mike Bales sense when McElhinney needs a break to avoid physical and/or mental fatigue?
Curtis McElhinney is the #1 right now
Recently, I suggested that the team should consider parting ways with McElhinney. My reasoning was that he seems unlikely to be able to play in a starter’s role for an extended period of time. But crystal ball aside, McElhinney right now is easily the goalie that one would want in the net if the season depended on one game. As such, he is the starter until he falters and/or someone else plays better. He has been the best goalie, and the team seems to play better in front of him. As such, it is time to abandon any efforts to boost Petr Mrazek or Scott Darling into the #1 slot, and instead just go with the hot hand as long as possible.
What happens with Scott Darling and Petr Mrazek?
With McElhinney currently in the #1 slot, many are anxious to somehow eliminate a goalie to be back down to a normal two. But I am not sure it makes sense to rush into this for a couple reasons. First, because of the volume of game limitations detailed above, I would not be inclined to just assume McElhinney will be good for the long run of 82 games. Second, there really is no gain to be had from jettisoning Scott Darling and/or Petr Mrazek right now.
With two more years remaining on his contract at $4.1 million, I would be shocked if anyone claimed Darling if he was put on waivers to be acquired for nothing. The team could still send him to the AHL and be on the hook for his full salary. But with prospects Alex Nedeljkovic and Callum Booth already sharing ice time in Charlotte, adding Darling would just complicate things. The team can try to trade him for a similar reclamation project, but more likely the exit comes in the form of a buyout next summer if Darling does not find a higher gear.
With a modest $1.5 million salary and no commitment beyond the 2018-19 season, Mrazek could be be marketable to a team in need of a backup. But the return on such a deal will be minimal. More significantly, I think the team would like to see a few more starts to see if perhaps Mrazek can round into form as a solid #2.
Regardless, especially with McElhinney’s limited starts in recent years, the Hurricanes must also have a #2 who can play a decent number of games. So at least for now, Mrazek and Darling are in a battle for a #2 role which is important with Mrazek likely getting the next chance to win that job.
So in short, I do not think the Hurricanes will be in any hurry to do anything with Darling or Mrazek. I doubt either has much value on the trade market right now with both being reclamation projects of sorts. In addition, sending one of them to the AHL long-term would hinder the development or two prospects. Finally, the team still needs a #2, so both Darling and Mrazek remain candidates for that role.
An interesting aside on the three-goalie situation
Three goalies do not work well for practice reps or seeing regular game action, but if that model holds it could actually have an interesting benefit. A significant part of ‘goalie fatigue’ is the mental grind of being under pressure night in and night out. With three goalies, it is possible to give McElhinney the night off completely when he is not starting. This is what the team did on Saturday. Physically it is no different, but in dressing as a backup, a goalie must mentally prepare to play all day and be focused during the game while on the bench in case he is called into action. By being a healthy scratch instead, the goalie more truly gets the night off. In considering the possibility of McElhinney going from 15 starts to two or three times that such a break mentally in days off could be significant.
Looking farther into the future
With a 35-year old career backup suddenly in the starter’s role and two other starter candidates mostly flailing right now, the longer-term future of Hurricanes in net is murky. Unless he turns things around, I think the Hurricanes will bite the bullet and buy out Darling this summer. (I voted to do that last summer despite the negative of the buyout cost.) Mrazek is a free agent, so the team would just choose not to re-sign him. McElhinney could be re-signed, but I would also expect the team to add another goalie.
Summing it up
Curtis McElhinney is very clearly the #1 right now. The bias/effort to try to force Darling into that role is over and only resumes if McElhinney falters.
But Brind’Amour needs to be careful that he does not run McElhinney into the ground. Hence, there is still a pressing need for a capable #2.
I would not jump to the conclusion that the current situation will hold for the rest of the season. Much can change over another 60ish games which is part of the reason for my next comment.
Short-term, I do not think there is any rush to jettison Darling or Mrazek. One (and it is not clear which) needs to fill the #2 role, and neither would garner much value trade-wise at their current low points.
Longer-term, I think it will take a significant change of course for either Darling or Mrazek to be with the team next year.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Can Curtis McElhinney be a great Cinderella story who continues as the starter through 82 games and into the post-season? Or is he destined to hit a wall and fade at some point with the increased workload?
2) Do you see either or both of Scott Darling or Petr Mrazek finding a rhythm at some point and being either a capable #2 or possibly even a #1 at some point during the 2018-19 season?
3) What other thoughts do you have on the current Canes goalie situation?
Go Canes!
I don’t understand the extreme concern about McElhinney being unable to play more than 15-20 games a season. Have you heard something about his physical conditioning? Does he have injury history? Sure, he may break down physically, or he may not. For a guy who has been in or around the league for as long has he has I expect he prepares his body like a pro.
Mentally, that may be an issue. Can McElhinney maintain the focus he needs to be good in the long run? Good question. Cam Ward never found that ability. From what we have seen it’s hard not to like McElhinney’s perspective. Doesn’t seem too excited about anything. Good thing to see from a goalie.
Speaking of holding up physically, Darling and Mrazek have both been injured already this year. At this point the Canes need both of them to make sure they have a second goalie. From what I’ve seen of Ned’s performance in Charlotte he’s still streaky/inconsistent. Not NHL ready. He may never be. If this continues Booth may be the #1 in Charlotte by years end.
CMac has earned the right to be called #1. It’s up to one of the other guys to step up and show they’re on par. Who knows what the reason for Cmac being labeled a career back-up. All we know is right now this situation is clicking for him. Maybe it’s the fact there’s like 0 pressure on him. He’s making the most of his situation never knowing for sure if he’ll be back in Toronto or some other place. As long as Bales is being honest with Rod, if Mac can take it, go with it.
I think Mrazek gets the next shot and I want to say that will be Friday. With the West Coast swing coming up after Anaheim, I can’t see 3 tenders making the trip. Mac has to be one of them. If Mrazek plays well, then maybe Darling stays home. If he lays an egg, I think Darling is the backup. There’s no real back to back, so there’s nothing saying Cmac couldn’t play all 3 out west. It will be very telling from management by who is left behind where the tender situation stands.
There is more than one way to look at Mac not having a lot of work over the past few years: the first is that he may get tired and hit the wall once he goes materially over 20 games; the second is that there is less wear and tear on an older body and he has plenty of gas in the tank. I’ll go with the latter way until proven otherwise.
As for a #2, we are going to need someone else to play ~20-25 games over the balance of the season (if Mac gets the rest and can handle the load) and competition for those games is a good thing until it ends and there is a clear #2. There is little downside in letting that play on as long as there is a roster spot open, though that could change.
We have been saying for years that this were are playoff team with league-average goaltending. Well, Mac has been giving us above-average goaltending. We don’t have a back-to-back for two weeks. No excuses: we have to ride this horse and start climbing in the standings.
In his post game interview with Tripp and John, Mac was reserved and calm. Utterly so. The ultimate “act like you’ve done this before” victory celebration. Oh hum.
While everyone is wondering how many games he can play in a season before fatigue is an issue, I want to hear what Mac has to say on the subject. Was “20” games the limit due to his physical capability, or situational because of his perennial back up label on teams with very good starters. After the game he looked like he barely raised his pulse stopping 48 shots enroute to the victory. If he only has “14” games left I want them all to be at home. It is wonderful when you don’t have to fake a cheer when the goalie is announced in the starting line up.
Details: The Checkers have 3 games in 3 nights this weekend. 2 in Providence, 1 in Hartford.
Use one of those games for a rehab start for Mrazek, leaving a game each for Ned and/or Booth. This Friday start Mac at home backed up by Darling. Sunday the Canes play a night game in LA. Rest Mac, start Darling. Better yet, play Mrazek Friday night in Providence and fly him first class to LA for the Sunday night game to be backed up by Darling. Play Mac Wednesday on 4 days rest in San Jose. Return to Mrazek (or Darling) for Anaheim on Friday. That sets up Mac with 5 days rest for Toronto again. Unless, in the more one could hope for scenario, Mrazek has earned another start right away.
1. Mac will never say “no” to a start – given where he is in his career I expect he loves the opportunity to show himself as a starter. And he is playing his way into a final big payday the next couple of seasons.
Where Mac is succeeding is his ability to read the play developing in front of him and anticipate the puck movement. He is generally quite conservative with his movement in the crease, at least as I have seen him.
That said, I wouldn’t push him – I wouldn’t push any goalie to be honest. You treat him as the pre-emptive starter, and you put the backup in on the second game of the back-to-backs. DeCock has indicated the tandem going forward is M&M. There is generally enough time between games the next two weeks that Mac should be able to handle them all through the MTL/WSH back-to-back.
2. There was an interesting fancy stat chart yesterday on Twiter that looked at 5×5 expected goals taking into account shot difficulty. One step above the bottom was Darling (with a negative value – letting in more than expected). What I found interesting is that both Mrazek and Mac were at nearly identical levels – and both within the top 20% or so of goalies with more than 150 saves. So, by the fancy stats, Mrazek is already there – or was, at least. But he is backup, for now.
3. Is it possible that Darling may well have played his last game with the Canes – even if we keep him until the buyout???
Another fancy stat list, from my usual CSA, had Mrazek bottom 5 in October for expected goals. Pretty small numbers for a real picture.
Why would Luke DeCock know much of anything? He doesn’t go to practice, I doubt he’s gone to as many games as many of us, and turns off the Canes as soon as anything ACC is on TV. Last night it was obvious that he and Chip stopped watching the Canes game after the first period. I understand someone has to watch the ACC games, but no one watches the Canes? They want us to pay for that coverage? Pffft! DeCock’s main goal is to stir up interest to his articles. (That is what he’s paid to do.) He either purposely puts out stupid stuff or he knows very little about hockey.
I am generally not a big fan of his, but his tweeted information is generally spot on – although his opinions can easily be argued with.
Unfancy stats. Mrazek has 5 loses (3regular and 2OT) on the season. In 3 of those the Canes scored only one goal. 2 of those were against the Islanders, one a 1-1 tie at the end of regulation. There were back to back loses against Winnipeg (he gave up 2 goals, we scored 1) and Tampa (he gave up 3goals). Both are teams with firepower we can only envy. His “worst” game was an 8-5 victory against the Rangers. Looking at these numbers, the fancy stats above and the simple optics of Mrazek in goal there is still reasonable hope he can be at least “average” going forward.
Well done. Shows the problem with putting too much emphasis on statistics from small sample sizes. Hope Mrazek can play well for the Canes when he is ready.
If this trend continues with Mac for the remainder of the season then he may be considered the best waiver claim in NHL history. Darling’s leash was short to start the season; I’d say it’s pretty tight around his neck right now. I expect Mrazek to step up soon and challenge for the #1. That scenario could push us into solid position for the playoffs.
I think age plays less a factor with goalies as opposed to wear and tear. C-Mac should have plenty in the tank.
It’s sort of like buying an old tire with lots of tread…would you rather trust that on the road or a newer tire that leaks?
1) It appears that McElhinney has started 15 or fewer games because of his situation: 15-16 behind Bobrovsky and Korpisalo, then 16-17 and 17-18 behind Andersen. Those goalies started 65+ games those three seasons. Nothing in those seasons suggest that McElhinney hit a wall. I agree with dmiller that it is likely to mean McE is less physically worn out than other goalies.
2) McElhinney is #1 until he has three consecutive poor starts. My guess is Mrazek takes control as #2.
3) McElhinney is playing great at the right time. There are signs that the Canes (specifically Svechnikov and Wallmark) are about to become a better offensive team. If that happens consistently, then the goalie can have average nights and win games.