Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a short collection of random thoughts/notes.
Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov
From the ‘ask and you shall receive’ folder, I clamored on Friday morning for Svechnikov to be bumped up to Aho’s line to try to help both players get going offensively (Svechnikov in terms of goal scoring and Aho just in general). A few hours later at practice that hope was realized. Almost nothing is ever permanent as far as NHL lines go, but I think this duo has the potential to spend a lot of time together over the coming year for two reasons, one obvious and the other much more subtle. Obvious is that both players have the potential to be high-end scorers. Aho has already established himself as such but does have room to go up one more notch. Svechnikov is not officially there yet but clearly has the tool set and seems to be trending that way. There are always exceptions, but successful teams in the NHL very often have an elite top line. Aho and Svechnikov have the potential to be that for the Hurricanes. The more subtle reason why they could stick together is that the rest of the Canes lineup for the first time in a long time has the potential to support a top-heavy first line. So far there seems to be enough other offense that the team does not become too one-dimensional by going this route.
Still waiting for deep depth scoring
Early on, the third line has emerged as a productive scoring threat. As noted above, that is critical to being able to stock a top line with the aim of building an eventual juggernaut that can compete with the NHL’s top lines. Right now, people think about the third line and speak loosely about depth scoring. But the other side of the coin is the lack of scoring from the fourth line. On paper, what the team has available to stock the fourth line would seemingly produce scoring at a decent clip. Lucas Wallmark is a heady player who is capable even if not dynamic offensively. Brock McGinn posted 16 goals only two years ago. Jordan Martinook is coming off a 15-goal 2018-19 campaign. And Warren Foegele showed his potential upside with a strong finish and playoffs in 2018-19. The options would suggest that the team will get good depth scoring from the fourth line. And the talk of depth also seems to make fourth-line scoring almost a foregone conclusion. But through 11 games that scoring has yet to really emerge. The combination of Lucas Wallmark, Brock McGinn, Warren Foegele, Jordan Martinook, Brian Gibbons and Julien Gauthier have logged a total of 42 games. Normal would be three players at eleven games per player for a total of 33 total games. Despite the extra games, the group has tallied only a single goal and eight assists. If projected over three players for a full season, the average would be one goal and 20 assists per fourth-line forward. But that number is inflated by the fact that some of McGinn and Foegele’s production occurred playing up above the fourth line. So a real project is probably 1 goal and 10-15 assists per player. That meager amount would rank below the Nordstrom/Kruger/Jooris group that struggled and was mostly demoted to the AHL for lack of production. Eleven games is a small enough sample size that there is reason for hope, but the situation is worth watching. Many grumbled about Brind’Amour going with 11 forwards and 7 defensemen for a couple games. He did not say it directly, but part of me wonders if a contributing factor in this odd lineup was to try to spark the fourth line with ice time playing with a double-shifting forward like Aho who could maybe provide a needed spark to get things going.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you see the Sebastian Aho/Andrei Svechnikov duo as something that clicks and sticks? Or do you think more likely it is just another combination that comes and goes with the shifting sands of a long NHL season?
2) Did you realize that the fourth line scoring was as low as it is? What do you think it takes to spark this group and for it to provide the reasonable depth scoring that was hoped for at the beginning of the season?
Go Canes!
Moving Svechnikov to Aho’s line served two purposes. It gave both an offensive spark, and it relieved the responsibility of checking the other team’s top line from Svechnikov. People often ignore that issue, but it makes a difference.
Frankly, Svechnikov is still a work in progress without the puck. He’s only 19, so not a huge concern unless he is facing the top scorers in the NHL. I think Staal’s line serves better as a true checking line anyway.
It makes so much sense, especially since Svech is more of a playmaker than people realize. Love Jordan for what he brings, but he’s not a great fit with playmaking wingers (Svech, Turbo) who need a center with more of an offensive upside.
1. Not having seen Saturday’s game (only listened to the call on the third) what I know came from that call and what I have read since. And it does seem as though it was successful and I think there are a lot of reasons to assume it will continue to be. Svech provides a highly skilled power forward (Nino just hasn’t been it) who isn’t afraid to be physical. That is a nice complement to Aho’s playmaking – they should really feed off each other. It will be interesting to see how they fare defensively against top lines – that will be the question mark for me.
2. With depth-scoring/4th line scoring woes it is somewhat ironic that the first goal of the season was scored by Wallmark.
That said, you are conflating 4th line with depth – McGinn and Foegele have not been offensively productive no matter where they have been slotted.
And Top-6 forward Nino and 4th-line center Wallmark now have the same number of goals, which is the same number of non-empty net goals that Aho has. And the point here is we are not getting much from anywhere yet – except for Haula and Hamilton.
Or, to put it another way, not only is depth scoring not happening, neither is top-6. I would be more concerned about that. And I think that the 4th line will do a lot better once Martinook returns.
For now, the question on the 4th is it doing what it is supposed to be doing. Wallmark is a faceoff beast so far – other than that I will yield to those who follow the stats better to understand whether Wallmark’s line is effective outside of scoring.
Today’s practice swapped Turbo and Foegele on the top two lines, which does make Staal’s line much of a checking, possession-driven line (although with more offensive upside than with Nordy and Nesty a number of years ago) per lts’s comment. And Svech-Aho-Turbo looks like it could be an offensive powerhouse as a top line. We will see who is slotted where tomorrow.
Yeah, we know what McGinn is by now. A grinder who gets a few goals when he gets overslotted in the top 6 with actual offensive talent. I love Rod, I do, but he’s too committed to grinders. The 4th line can use one. Wallmark generally seems to set up some dangerous chances pretty regularly (this is just the eye test) but your McGinns and Foegeles won’t be finishing them. Put Gauthier on that line. Maybe he’s not the answer, but we know what a grinder 4th line is gonna do, they’re gonna grind.
Speaking of quality 4th liner, a familiar face scored his first NHL goal with the Golden Knights last night (then knocked himself out during the celebration):
https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Jeff-Paul/Nics-At-Night-Hague-and-Roy-Shine-in-5-2-Win/268/102281
Good for Roy, I wish we would’ve kept him personally but he only has 1 goal in 4 games, so it’s not like he’s headed for the Rocket trophy.
I also should add that I don’t regret trading for Eric Hala, just wish we could’ve traded Fleury instead of Roy.
Finally, the problem I had with the 11, 7 experiment for the Canes was that it wasn’t one; it was basically shortenin the bench by a forward (since Fleury had virtually no action).
I think that, in that situation, the team could have sat an underperforming forward and called up one of the Checkers to replace him, not just sat out a player for no reason.