Today’s Daily Cup of Joe has quick thoughts on Andrei Svechnikov version 2.0 through four games in his sophomore season.
In my book, Andrei Svechnikov’s 2018-19 season was a mixed bag at least measured against the high expectations of being the first forward taken in the 2018 NHL Draft. His 20 goals were a decent milestone for an 18-year old rookie, and he showed enough of an offensive tool bag to validate the high expectations placed on him. But on the downside, his rookie season was not one of taking the NHL by storm. He was never really a factor in the Calder Trophy race that many expected him to win. His 37 points were modest. And areas of his game proved to be raw as one might expect. But despite the good but not great rookie season, Svechnikov exited the 2018-19 season with all of his upside intact and high hopes for his second season.
By no means is four games enough to make any kind of declarative assessment of Svechnikov’s second season, but I thought it would be interesting to offer early thoughts on his 2019-20 campaign through four games.
Andrei Svechnikov with Jordan Staal
Before the season started, I was not high on a Jordan Staal/Andrei Svechnikov combination. My reasoning was twofold. First, I thought Staal’s lack of playmaking ability would fail to maximize Svechnikov’s goal scoring ability. Second, I did not like the idea of forcing Staal’s match up line responsibilities on a young Svechnikov who was still a work in progress defensively exiting the 2018-19 season. But through four games, the duo has been good together. Early indications might actually suggest that I was right on Svechnikov’s goal scoring being limited since he has yet to score. But in general, the positives have outweighed the negatives. Svechnikov has meshed well with Staal playing a puck possession game, and his game has been mostly quiet in a good way defensively. And though Svechnikov has yet to score, he has been a factor offensively leading the team with six assists (three on the power play).
Maturation offensively as a playmaker
What has most stood out about Svechnikov’s play through four games has been his playmaking/passing ability. The volume of power play goals might suggest that multiple areas of both power play units are clicking, but in reality the team has a single going concern with the man advantage. That catalyst is the top triangle formed by Andrei Svechnikov, Dougie Hamilton and Teuvo Teravainen. Teravainen rightfully is getting top billing for his ability to thread passes through seams to the front of the net where Erik Haula and Ryan Dzingel have benefited. But Svechnikov also deserves his share of credit. Most of the plays Teravainen has made have been preceded by passes through the seem by Svechnikov that forces the penalty killers to shift quickly twice in a a short period of time. Being just a tiny bit slow or off passing lanes has been what Teravainen has exploited.
At even strength, Svechnikov has also been a difference-maker as a playmaker. I really think this is a sign of the maturation of his game and thought process offensively. As a rookie, Svechnikov was prone to fire at will from any and all angles taking his chance on beating a goalie even on a low probability shot. As they say, it is never a bad thing to shoot the puck, and I think Svechnikov needs to continue to have a shoot first bias. But at the same time, I think Svechnikov is adjusting to an NHL reality. In lower levels with a good shot, a player like Svechnikov could beat goalies on low percentage shots, but at the NHL level, I think he is learning to distinguish between good chances and ones that sometimes you pass on to force the goalie to move and make a save after a pass that forces him to adjust. In this regard, I think Svechnikov’s numbers are actually a bit understated by Staal not finishing at a high rate.
With four games being a small sample size, I will be curious to watch Svechnikov’s 2019-20 play out. Early indications are that the maturation of his game could see him more balanced between scoring and playmaking.
Physical and defensive play
Svechnikov played with a physical edge even as a rookie, but I think he has dialed that up a notch early in his second season. He continues to play physical, finish checks and get under opposing players’ skin. He is very a physically engaged power forward already and should only grow in that regard as he gets stronger over the next couple years.
One of the limitations to Svechnikov’s game as a rookie was his defensive play. He was prone to too many short lapses that found him awake out of position and then too often use his stick to make up for it. The result was a high volume of obstruction penalties trying to recover from not moving his feet soon enough. Through four games, Svechnikov does have one of those penalties already and a couple other near misses, so it is premature to call this issue resolved. But as I noted above, his game has generally been quiet defensively in a good way playing with Staal and the match ups that come with that. So at least through four games, I would say that Svechnikov has made modest progress with this element of his game.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What is your assessment of Andrei Svechnikov through four games?
2) What are your thoughts on Andrei Svechnikov with Jordan Staal through four games?
3) What, if anything given the small sample size, do you make of Svechnikov’s 0 goal/6 assist total through four games?
Go Canes!
1) Svech looks to have taken another step. As Matt mentions he seems to be more comfortable with the NHL speed/skill. He has had several “wow” plays that haven’t ended up in net. It will come. On the PP he has been a great complement to TT. Opponents have to respect his ability to shoot so the seam pass is available for a split second. Svech has made it multiple times. Of course, TT is becoming elite at exploiting any weakness.
2) I think it is working fine. I would prefer to see TT back with those two. The Canes need to find another scorer (likely Dzingel or perhaps Gauthier after 2-3 games on the fourth) for Aho’s wing. As I said yesterday I like McGinn and think his energy and physicality are needed, just not on a scoring line.
3) Through 4 games there isn’t much to read into the 0 goals/6 assists other than Svech now being capable of creating chaos which leads to goals for others. His goals will start coming.
1) I love the trajectory that Svechnikov is on. RBA’s brilliance continues to impress in placing him with Staal, for the following reason. For him to be elite, his defense has to get better. So put him on a line with top defensive responsibilities where he can be best mentored by the captain, one of the best defensive players in the NHL. The young man will exit this season as a complete player.
2) CT stated my thoughts on Svechnikov with Staal. Offensively it is fine. The third linemate, though, matters. Svechnikov + Turbo = magic so far in this young season, and I would like to see more of them together. Whether with Staal or Aho or Haula in the middle the pair together has chemistry.
3) Again agree with CT, give it more time. Svechnikov’s line currently lacks a setup man, unless it is Svechnikov himself. The stats so far would indicate it is him, perhaps again helping to round out his game.
I look forward to seeing him on a line with a top passer once his defense is elevated to elite.
Playing with Staal puts hair on anyone’s chest, defensively speaking. Ideally Svetch becomes a top line wing for Aho, but right now Staal is good for Svetch because he will need that defensive awareness once he makes it to the top line.
1. Svech has continued the trajectory he displayed at the end of last season. He is stronger, more confident, more physical – he is a beast as he moves around the ice. He is displaying near-elite passing skills, particularly on the PP, and is taking better shots. As trajectory is everything and he is showing no signs of an early sophomore slump.
2. I am not sure I buy into the argument that placing him on Staal’s line is intended to build his development. I think RBA is trying to ice lines that provide the best chance of winning as opposed to a logic of “we are doing this to make him a better player in a month or a year, or what”.
Last year Svech was tops in the league with a fancy stat showing him to be contributing to 5×5 offense (something related to number of shots while he was on ice). In other words his presence on ice drives offense. He is now playing much more of a poession game – i.e., the game that Staal’s line is on the ice for. You can score on possession-based hockey and his skill set is effective in that regards (heavy play, good passing) but is he optimized for personal success or team success there? I think without a playmaker his skill set is not currently being put to best use. But adding a playmaker to Staal’s line creates a different type of line for Staal to center. So in my mind it is really a question of roles that RBA envisions for his lines that is driving placement with the personnel he has.
3. What has been great to see is Svech adapting to his role on the PP as passer – that will open up his shot as teams are force to react. In general his ability and willingness to pass (nevermind his skill level at it) is great to see starting this year. He is on his way to a monster year once the goals start coming for him.
This about sums it all up for me … It’s almost like he feels like he got beat up and bullied on the playground last season (he did, by Ovi) and vowed during the offseason to not let that happen again.
He is becoming a possession bear and eventually, maybe even this season, like Hossa and Datsyuk, almost impossible to move off the puck. There is no question in my mind that he is about to open into full blossom.
I honestly think Ovechkin’s treatment of Svech all season long (and not just the playoff fight) was his version of a “Russian Paratrooper Initiation”. Before the season they spent time with each other and were all smiles. From preseason on Ovechkin rode Svechnikov – late hits, taunts in Russian, grabbing his stick after play. etc. And right up to challenging Svech to a fight – I think it was all about Ovechkin intentionally toughening up Svechnikov. The night of the fight after the game, Ovechkin calls Svechnikov in the hospital and they talked.
You didn’t see any Ovechkin riding of Svechnikov in the preseason and regular season games so far. Ovi’s job is done in developing Svech’s toughness on the ice.
Not sure that was about Ovi toughening him up or just plain establishing his dominance. Ovi does that stuff to Malkin all the time. Malkin never backed down, so he still gets it. It seems to be some kind of “top Russian” thing. Ovi may have felt bad for actually injuring Svechnikov, or Svechnikov may have said uncle. Who knows. Either way Svechnikov doesn’t need to be baited into that stuff. Play the game.