Today it was learned that Hurricanes prospect Adam Fox would be returning to Harvard next year to play his senior season at the collegiate level.
For those who only track the Hurricanes at the NHL level, Adam Fox is a prospect defenseman who was obtained from Calgary in the trade that included Dougie Hamilton and Micheal Ferland. Fox is a cerebral offensive defenseman and a high-end prospect. The downside to Fox and probably the reason he was available is the fact that he was believed to want to play all four years at the NCAA and turn pro as a free agent. Today’s news suggests that that continues to be a possibility
My quick thoughts on the situation…
Adam Fox’s right
It is every bit Adam Fox’s right to work through four years of college and become a free agent. The concept of 18-20 year old kids entering the work force having zero say into what company they work for or even what city they live in has always been in interesting one. If Fox follows the rules and pays his dues at the college level, he has every right to become a free agent and capitalize on that situation as best he can.
Not really any ability to negotiate
From the Hurricanes standpoint, there is not too much they can do other than staying engaged and hoping for the best. Because entry-level contracts are defined by the league rules, there really is not much to negotiate. It is very simply a matter of Fox choosing to stay in the NCAA ranks and becoming a free agent versus starting his professional play a year early.
Potential to leverage the potential lockout to get Fox signed
The one wild card that the Hurricanes have pending is the potential for an NHL lockout before the start of the 2020-21 season. The risk for Fox is to wait to become a free agent and then immediately miss that first season. The result is that it backs up Fox’s start of his professional career in terms of being paid at least a signing bonus, working through his entry-level contract and simply getting started with his professional career. So there is some chance that the Hurricanes can leverage the situation since they are the only team that can expedite Fox’s development and situation.
Overestimating the probability of NHL success for NCAA stars
If Fox does eventually go the free agent route, the loss will be a sizable one for the Hurricanes prospect pool. Fox is a top 50 in the entire NHL type of prospect with a high ceiling and a game that fits today’s NHL. He also represents future help on the blue line where the Hurricanes are light on true prospects. That said, I think people often overestimate the probability that success at the college level will translate instantly into the same thing at the NHL level. There have been college players who have become NHL stars, but in total even the greatest college hockey stars have been hit or miss.
Effect on the prospect pool
As noted above, Fox is a high-end prospect and the potential for blue line help in the future. The Hurricanes are light in terms of blue line prospects, so losing Fox hurts in that regard too. Minus Fox, the Hurricanes have Jake Bean as a similar offense-leaning defenseman with a high ceiling, Luke Martin who is also playing NCAA hockey and Roland McKeown as a lower ceiling right shot. Past that, the Hurricanes have a handful of defensemen drafted in lower rounds and unlikely to ever make the NHL. So one upshot could be that the Hurricanes use the 2019 NHL draft to restock defense prospects.
Recouping something
Despite Fox’s potential to become a free agent, there is a reasonable chance that the Hurricanes recoup something for fox in the trade market this summer. Some teams will be willing to part with a draft pick to get exclusive negotiating rights to Fox to gain the upper hand in signing him as a free agent.
The chance for an abrupt change
Despite today’s news, there is still some chance that the Hurricanes do get Fox under contract. There is a chance that Fox’s agent is pushing to get some unwritten promises into the contract that helps Fox get NHL experience sooner rather than later.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Are you surprised to hear that Adam Fox plans to ride out his senior year and then become a free agent after that?
2) What are the chances that this is simply a negotiating ploy that eventually proves to be the beginning not the end?
Go Canes!
1. Not surprised at all.
2. The fact Fox was a sweetener in a major offseason deal was fishy from the start. Calgary was and is a team on the rise, same with Carolina. It is clear enough Fox wants to pick his own address. Question is where, and is this because he wants to play for the highest bidder?
1) Not surprised at all. The reason Fox was available from Calgary was that he stated he wanted to play 4 years at Harvard and become a UFA.
2) I think the chances this are a negotiating tactic are pretty low. Harvard is a fantastic university and it doesn’t have any football or basketball program to speak of. Fox is a BMOC at one of the most prestigious schools in the world. Why give that up?
The only thing that surprised me about this situation is the confidence that was expressed about signing Fox. Actually, it didn’t so much surprise me as I didn’t believe it. The leadership of the team (RBA, Williams) is fantastic and trustworthy. I am becoming more confident that Waddell is a capable GM. However, no one should ever forget that at the very top of the organization is a “what’s-in-it-for-me” predator (not my term but that of a federal regulator who spent months analyzing the Canes owner prior business).
I actually understand why our GM was publicly confident. The statements by Don Waddell were ones most other GMs would have made. But in any type of these circumstances I remember that when the financial stability of the global economy was in question and most of us were rightly appalled by the actions and words of Jimmy Cayne and Dick Fuld a few people saw men who were willing to ruin others’ lives for their own gain not as blameworthy but as heroes to emulate.
I wonder why the Canes didn’t trade Fox’s rights to another team, especially a team like the Rangers or Leafs (teams he probably wants to play for ultimately), for a playoff deadline addition, Some form of top 6/top 9 forward help, if they knew they couldn’t sign him.
I think someone like Kevin Hayse could easily have been head for those rights and a 6th round pick, and even if he is not tearing it up he would’ve added some experience and punch that could’ve been helpful down the stretch.
The team defense is in pretty good shape though, if JB can replace Faulk (if Faulk cannot be resigned) the team has some time to restock the prospect pool on D, something they have to start doing in this upcoming draft.
You can’t rely on foxes, just ask Dora the Explorer or Little Red Ridinghood.
I wonder if ctcaniac knows how lame and boring his constant negativity toward the owner of the Canes is? Message to ctcaniac. We don’t care! We’re having fun and TD has a lot more to do with that than some nameless federal bureaucrat who said something bad about him back in the day.
C’mon ctcaniac! Give us a break! Save it for someone who cares! Or, better yet, start your own “Let’s all have fun badmouthing TD” blog. Maybe someone will follow.
I won’t.
I probably take things more personally than most. My spouse was in the military-serving our country. I saw firsthand how payday lenders and others preyed on young people trying to improve their lives through sacrifice for their country. I also spent a lot of time trying to understand how the economy nearly collapsed—a good friend was a senior economist at a think tank and gave me tons of places to learn about how things went so wrong. So yes I care about predation on service people based on a model that cost many of us jobs and decreased our wealth.
I have read comments about how some teams embellish or some players are dirty. That seems fine with most. How is this different?
Look I love the Canes. But I don’t want to be the hockey version of the fans who cheer Robert Kraft next season— you know some will.
Don’t feel you have to defend yourself, ct. I am 100% in your corner for the content you post and the manner in which you post it, even when I disagree – and I do agree with you on this point.
On the other hand, there is no place on this blog for this poster’s personally directed negativity, insults, and personally demeaning comments.
This comment right here is why I rarely post here any more. Totally out of line.
To be clear, I am talking about the pwrlss post.
Your posts are missed, lts. Hopefully Matt will take notice.
I have no issue with Fox wanting to finish at Harvard. Few people who have the chance to attend a place like that would ever turn it down. Why would you? An education like that stays with you a lot longer than your skating legs, especially if you wind up with a degree.
1. No, not at all
2. it could be. In any case, this is away a risk with college draft picks, since they have more time to keep playing and ride out the clock than players in Major Junior hockey.
1. I am surprised – I had a birdie singing in my ear at the arena in February that his signing was a done deal. Next time I hear that birdie I will shoot it! LOL!
2. There are a lot of factors in play, I am sure.
Is there a roster spot for him here?
Where would he play out the remainder of the current season (I think CLT’s playoff run would be great for his development but that is just my thought)?
Does he really want to play in the NHL right away?
Does he want to come out right before a season that will be impacted by a lockout?
Does he sign under the current CBA? – which may net him a signing bonus and some NHL time at the end of next season – or does he wait until the next CBA, which may be more player friendly but means he may not get a paycheck (signing bonus or otherwise) until sometime in 2021
Does he want to accept that uncertainty in lieu of signing an ELC and being a RFA for some number of years (not current what RFA status would be for someone coming out of the NCAA as a junior agewise or otherwise).
Maybe the “birdie” meant Fox would sign with ‘Canes after his senior year next season even if he reaches UFA. This would allow him to graduate, then sign a contract that is bonus-laden for 7/1/2020, avoiding any delay with lockout. Either way, there was hope from many he would sign.
Let’s remember we all want the same thing, a return of hockey glory to Raleigh.
We have different takes on what needs to be done or how people are performing and we all have our hang ups (my Skinner trade hang up is still going strong though I think I’ve let go of it for the most part), but even if we do disagree on the how we agree on the what, so let’s try to keep it fun, cahtty, positive, free of going all personal, other than a friendly banter.
I think everybody’s contributions to this site are awesome. Powerless has a totally different an often refreshing perspective, even if a bit rough sometimes and not always one I agree with.
Let’s try to keep it positive, even through periods of frustration with our beloved hockey club and feeling that we know the answer, only the rest of the world isn’t seeing it.
Still, there is no reason for personal insults and demeaning comments directed towards others who participate here.
one thing that no one seems to be able to answer in this mess is what are the sources that were referenced in the initial report about Fox. All we actually have in terms of actual facts, at least all i could find, is 1 report from 1 reporter saying he had multiple sources, without saying what they are, saying Fox was going to stay, and then everyone else is just referencing that initial report or writing stuff with no references or statements at all…. The only thing we have from party involved in this is DW’s statement saying that Fox was still undecided. I in no way doubt that Fox many in fact be staying on at Harvard, but based on the reporting i have seen it really doesn’t seem like as sure a thing as everyone is making it out to be.