When the Hurricanes traded for Dougie Hamilton and defense prospect Adam Fox during the 2018 NHL Draft weekend and then added Calvin de Haan via free agency a week later, the team became one of the deepest on the blue line in the entire NHL.
Though things have not worked out exactly as planned with Dougie Hamilton struggling a bit in his transition to a new team, the Hurricanes have still been much stronger defensively in 2018-19. Meshing well with newcomer de Haan, Justin Faulk has rebounded and been much better defensively. De Haan has worked well. And reuniting Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce has pushed Hamilton to the third pairing which also has Trevor van Riemsdyk and Haydn Fleury as options. The team is not incredibly deep with NHL-ready depth, but Adam Fox and Jake Bean both have the potential to become difference-makers offensively.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers possibilities for how it could all shake out when projecting the Canes blue line out 2-3 years.
The left side
First, because they are both signed long-term and playing well and because the team is not as deep on the left side, I think Jaccob Slavin and Calvin de Haan are both very likely to still be on the Hurricanes’ roster in 2-3 years.
As a depth defenseman who has yet to produce much offensively at the NHL level, Haydn Fleury is by no means locked in long-term, but at the same time he has become an established NHLer and should still have a contract that fits the role when he re-signs this summer.
Jake Bean is a wild card on the left side. He brings a next-generation skill set that can generate offense from the back end, but it is still unclear if and/or when he will be NHL-ready.
The right side
The Canes already have a logjam on the right side which makes it most likely that there will be a departure or two from this group.
Right now, Brett Pesce and Justin Faulk are filling the two top four slots on the right side. Based on salary and past performance, Dougie Hamilton makes for three top four defenseman. Then behind him there is Trevor van Riemsdyk who more appropriately slots into a bottom pairing but is a steady and proven version of that.
Prospect-wise, Adam Fox is the player to watch. Obtained in the trade with Calgary, Fox is a high-end prospect who ranks near the top of the Hurricanes futures. The question is whether the Canes can get Fox under contract before he graduates from college in two years and becomes a free agent. Roland McKeown also offers a depth defenseman option.
The basic math
When one nets it out, the Hurricanes have the needed two top 4 defensemen in Slavin and de Haan on the left side, one experienced depth defenseman in Fleury and a potential future upgrade offensively in Bean. So that set works well for 2-3 years out with Slavin and de Haan signed long-term and Fleury and Bean still in their restricted free agent years.
On the right side, the Hurricanes have one extra top 4 defenseman with Pesce, Faulk and Hamilton in tow. The team also has van Riemsdyk for proven depth, but if Fox develops to be as good as advertised, the team would want to use van Riemsdyk’s slot for Fox. McKeown does not figure to be in the NHL simply because of the depth but could be a depth defenseman if others are moved.
So what happens?
Because the math works, I think the Hurricanes hold tight on the left side.
During last summer, I suggested that Faulk would be the last domino to fall during the summer’s maneuvers. Had Faulk been traded, the team would have entered the 2018-19 season with two top 4 right shot defenseman and a solid third pairing defenseman in van Riemsdyk. That did not happen likely because the team could not get a fair return.
But I still think the team will trade from this position of strength for three reasons. First, the benefit relative to the cost for having a third top 4 defenseman on the roster does not make any sense especially for a team that is spending less than the salary cap. Second, the team could desperately use another scoring forward who could be obtained via trade for a top 4 defenseman. Finally, the team needs to clear space that paves at least a potential path to NHL ice time for prospect Adam Fox in order to be a desirable destination versus finishing up college and becoming a free agent.
With Faulk playing well and Hamilton struggling with his transition to a new team, it is possible that the Hurricanes trade Hamilton or theoretically even Pesce and re-sign Faulk when his contract is up after the 2019-20 season. Though Hamilton’s struggles add some risk to doing so, I still think Faulk is the defenseman most likely to be dealt. Given his combination of age, level of play and reasonable salary with term, I do not see the Hurricanes trading Pesce unless the return is huge. And Hamilton comes with the advantage that he is signed for two more years versus only one for Faulk.
So I think Faulk is most likely to be traded but also recognize the possibility that it is one of the two other right shot defensemen who is traded instead.
Projected 2020-21 blue line depth chart
Slavin / Pesce
De Haan / Hamilton or Faulk
Default third pairing: Fleury / van Riemsdyk
Preferred third pairing if ready and capable of providing offense: Bean / Fox
The bottom pairing has two players with NHL experience, but in an ideal world one or both of Bean and Fox will prove to be capable defensively and a significant upgrade offensively.
If Fox is signed and proves NHL-ready quickly, he would at least initially fill van Riemsdyk’s slot and in the process make van Riemsdyk expendable when he becomes an unrestricted free agent before the 2020-21 season.
I will optimistically project that Fox is in fact NHL-capable in a hurry but that Bean is not and also that Faulk is traded by this summer.
If that is correct, the blue line for opening night of the 2020-21 season would be:
Slavin / Pesce
De Haan/ Hamilton
Fleury / Fox
Depth either from within or via signing a veteran free agent.
Expansion draft considerations
The other wild card is the expansion draft set for before the 2020-21 season. If the format is similar to the Las Vegas draft, the Hurricanes will almost certainly destined to lose a good defenseman. With the ability to protect only three defensemen, the Hurricanes would lose a proven top 4 defenseman. I am not a huge fan of working too far in advance to minimize expansion draft losses. Good teams that have depth and win are destined to lose a pretty good player. That beats losing and avoiding such losses. Regardless, the Hurricanes as constructed right now would be likely to lose a defenseman before the start of the 2020-21 season.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree that the Hurricanes are still likely to trade a top 4 right shot defenseman by early this summer? If so, who do you think is most likely to depart?
2) Do you think the Hurricanes will make room for Adam Fox, and if so, how?
3) What do you project as the Hurricanes blue line for the 2020-21 season?
Go Canes!
Why is it that so many on this site count Haydn Fkeury among the so-called depth on my beloved Canes?
I can almost understand why he was given a long look last season. After all, the fact that he was selected at number seven in the 2014 draft was probably the worst call Ronnie ever made. Want to argue that point? Let’s look at who was chosen after number 7 that year.
#8 William Nylander
#9 Nickolaj Ehlers
#10 Nicholas Ritchie
#11 Kevin Fiala
#15 Dylan Larkin
#17 Travis Sanheim
#18 Alex Tuch
#20 Nick Schmaltz
#21 Robbi Fabri
#22 Kasperi Kapanen
#25 David Pasternak
#79 Braden Point
#97 Lucas Wallmark
#112 Victor Arvidsson
#127 Clark Bishop
Ronnie had to give him every chance to succeed in order to save Ronnie’s face.
And I can understand why Roddy doesn’t use him.
Why is that?
In 77 games in the AHL, he has scored 9 goals and 21 assists for 30 points. 12 PIM.
In 77 games in the NHL, he has scored 0 goals and 9 assists. 9 points and 14 PIM.
Let’s compare him to another disappointment, Ryan Murphy.
Murphy was selected #12 in the 2011 NHL draft.
In 164 AHL games he scored 17 goals and 90 assists for 107 points and 82 PIM.
In 172 NHL games, he scored 8 goals and 34 assists for 42 points and 54 PIM.
Granted, these are different cases. In Murphy’s case, we took an undersized fast and highly skilled pure scorer defenseman and ground him into dust in our effort to transform him into a “defensively responsible” player. Very much like using an Alfa Romeo to pull a plow. Instead we wound up with a player nobody wanted.
With Haydn Fleury we were told we were getting a good-to-go big scoring defenseman who played with “an edge”.
If we are claiming to have Haydn as part of our depth, we are lying. He is not now, nor will he ever be ready for the NHL. Let’s stop lying to ourselves, at least.
So let’s get over Ronnie’s blemish on his team-building legacy. The rest of it is pretty good.
A word about Tom Dundon. He promised us that when we came to the PNC arena, our experience as fans would be vastly improved. My experience has improved in subtle ways.
But there are ways in which it is not so subtle. The game against Philly was the third time I saw the crowd do a “wave”. It is the third time in all the years I have been coming to Canes games. It is the third time in all the years I have been watching NHL games live. I have watched games in over 20 arenas. I find myself waiting after the game to see what victory celebration the boys are going to show us this time.
Thank you Tom, for making it fun to be a Canes fan. You certainly have kept your promise.
In an interview after the game with Philly, Roddy was asked about the heavy criticism of the Canes that we have been hearing. He responded by saying that he tells his guys to ignore the noise and keep doing what they know is right.
I agree.
While I agree thatFleury was a poor selection in the first round )and I’ve always said so) I disagree that he is not a serviceable NHL defenseman.
The reason Roddy hasn’t used him much this season is at in some part due to the fact he suffered a concussion.
Also you overlooked a pretty important stat for defenseman when comparing him and Ryan Murphy, that is the plus minus.
Fleury, for all his lack of goal scoring, is -1 for his career, even with 0 goals, this meanes he has done a good job defending, which is his primary job as a defenseman.
Ryan Murphy’s plus minus is, I think -28, which means he is not doing a good job in goal differential while on the ice.
Fleury is a steady and reliable kid who was in over his head but has been working his butt of in Clt. He’s making “peanuts” for salary which makes him a great value for a reliable third paring NHL D.
Don’t expect him to become the next Eric Carlson, that is not his job, but as a bargain #6 or 7 D I think he’s doing his job perfectly fine.
I see him as a good third pairing d man for now with Fox hopefully and he could slide to a#7 fill in if JB lives up to his potential and slots in on the left side of the D.
I prefer to trade Hamilton, but if Faulk doesn’t want to stay his value is pretty high right now. I’d explore Faulk + Staal to Edm for RNH + their doghouse Finn + a first round pick in 2019, We could throw in one of our goalies as a sweetener if necessary.
Not sure comparing Fleury to Murphy carries much weight. Fleury is 22 years old, only 1 1/2 years into his NHL career and importantly has established himself as a serviceable third pairing defenseman. Murphy never made it to that level as being “serviceable” defensively which is why he is still an AHL defenseman at age 25.
I am not incredibly high on Fleury’s upside, and sure I would take a redo on his draft selection given what followed, but just because he has not lived up to draft pedigree does not mean he is not useful/serviceable as an NHL depth defenseman especially if his salary is in line (which it is).
1. I don’t see Faulk re-signing – nor really having any motivation to do so. I think he is ready to move on from the team – although I do agree with your assessment of his greatly improved defensive. And he now sounds much more like a team leader in the locker room. If he is not going to sign the question is when do you trade him – do you until he is just a rental?
2. With Faulk traded, there is now room for Fox. If Fox is a good as advertised he will bump TvR from 3D-R, and TvR will make a nice 7D who can be effective on either side.
3. The right side should be Pesce, Hamilton, Fox/TvR.
The left side is a bit more interesting. This season I prefer Fleury as 3D-L over TvR on his offside, so I am hoping Fleury slots back in there when he is back from concussion. I have a more favorable view of Bean – his development this season with CLT has been excellent. He could supplant Fleury next season. But I don’t like the idea of two rookies on the third pairing, and I don’t Fox and Bean are the right combo on any pairing (but, boy, that puck would be moved fast! 🙂 ). SO some shuffling would be required.
Breezy. You missed my point. First of all, plus/minus has been discredited as a statistic for evaluating the effectiveness of a player. No goals and pitiful few assists demonstrate Fleury’s lack of success as part of secondary, or even tertiary scoring.
But the point I was making was simply this. In comparing Fleury to Murphy I was comparing one abject failure with another. If Murphy’s numbers were not good enough, how could anyone find Fleury’s numbers to be acceptable?
“Fleury is a steady and reliable kid…” How can anyone say that without his tongue firmly lodged in his cheek?
You and I have been watching different players wearing the number 4 on his Canes sweater.
Matt. What do you mean when you say “servicable”?
To me, serviceable means capable of filling a role adequately without being a big negative.
My opinion is that Fleury does that. He can handle regular shifts in a third pairing role. Is he the kind of difference-maker that drives wins? No (at least not yet). But he also does not cost you hockey games which is exactly what you want from a #6 defenseman at a sub-$1M salary.
I think Fluery’s problem is where is was drafted. I think you say he is steady and reliable…. if you disregard where he was drafted.
Fleury is not exactly the only first rund fail.
Hannifin (no longer with the team), Lindholm (no longer with the team), Skinner (no longer with the team), Murphy (no longer with the team), Jake Bean (behind schedule but there’s still hope), Gauthier (behind schedule but still has potential) or Necas (not the scoring savior we hoped for, somewhat unrealistically, he is going through growing pains).
The last 3 are still developing but the rest of the first round drafts by the Canes in the last 10-ish years were all fails, if you define a fail as someone who is no longer playing with the team and contributing, which I consider to be a pretty reasonable expectation for a first round draft pick.
I stick to my assertion that I like Fleury as a serviceable third pairing D man who has done his part defensively. I don’t know what you are watching but I’ve seen a kid with limited upside who has played sound and steady in a limited role. Is he replaceable? Yes. Can we get an upgrade? Yes. Can we get an upgrade at the NHL minimum salary, my opinion is no.
He is still developing, he has a single NHL year under his belt.
How many goals has Justin Faulk scored this year, or Hammilton? More than Fleury, but not by that much.
Fleury is not the reason why the Canes are in the basement and his salary is not a detriment to the Canes achieving success, in fact he is being paid as little as possible for an NHL defenseman.
The canes have bigger problems on the ice.
Breezy and Matt. I guess the proof will be in the pudding. Once Fleury is healthy, we will see if and where he plays. Caj went back to Europe and we signed Sanguinetti to replace him.
The second proof will be when Fleury becomes a Restricted Free Agent this summer. If we sign him to any contract at all, I will be very disappointed in our management.
Just as a clarification, the Checkers signed Sanguinetti to an AHL deal; the Canes did not sign him and have no professional relationship with him at this time.
If the management can build a team to contend for the playoffs next year I’ll be happy. I have no attachments to a particular player or contract, I just want to see the team shake off the dust and rise.
I think getting a serviceable third pairing D man for less than $1M leaves more money on the table for difference makers higher up in the lineup (forward, goalies, top 4 D, though ours is set). I think Fleury is such a player but if the management can find an upgrade for similar money I am fine with that.
Whether the management resigns Fleury to another $1M per year deal is neither going to delight nor disappoint me. It’s what management does with top of the line players, either resign them or trade them for something of value, that is going to determine the future of the franchise.
That being said, if Fox and Bean both reach their potential there is quite a future on our D.
The focus has got to be on retaining serviceable goaltending and reshuffling the forward core, or on coaching and systems.
Beating the worst team in the NHL on home ice on New Year´s Eve was pretty fun but it does nothing to signal the end of the team’s struggles.
Another win against same opponent on thir home turf and winning at least 2 out of the following 3 games is the minimum amount of success to indicate that something is changing.