With the late-ish Canes game on Sunday and after battling a cold all weekend, I am behind on having a Daily Cup of Joe post for Monday and will opt for something easy. 🙂
Here is an early shot at building the Carolina Hurricanes 2017-18 opening day roster.
Carolina Hurricanes forward lines
Sebastian Aho / New C1 / New RW
Teuvo Teravainen / Jordan Staal / Elias Lindholm
Jeff Skinner / Victor Rask / Lee Stempniak
Phil Di Giuseppe / Lucas Wallmark / Joakim Nordstrom
Brock McGinn
I continue to think that to boost the scoring and be competitive, Ron Francis needs to add 1 difference-maker/catalyst at forward to pair with Sebastian Aho and create another scoring line. Interestingly, per my wheeling and dealing article from the just-passed trade deadline, there might actually be 3 such players available in Matt Duchene, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Alex Galchenyuk. With 2 skilled players with both scoring and playmaking ability, I think the right win on that line would ideally be a power forward with enough finishing and skating ability to benefit from what the other 2 create and be productive. Wayne Simmonds (who will NOT be available) is a model for what I would like to see here – a power forward who goes to the front of the net as a habit and can finish and somewhat importantly does not need to play much with the puck on his stick to be productive. Julien Gauthier’s skill set fits the bill, and he could be a wild card. But early indications from the conversations that I have had with people who watch him more closely is that he might need a year in the AHL before he is ready.
I think/hope Francis’ big add is the top-tier C1. I think the right wing on this line could be more of a complementary player or possibly even Lee Stempniak.
I like Staal and Lindholm as a pair and think Teravainen is an interesting complement who has enough 2-way hockey ability to play on a line that will be tasked as a top checking line at home but who also brings some playmaking to try to boost the scoring for that line.
I think Skinner/Rask continue to be a decent pair.
Finally, out of the existing options for depth players, I like Di Giuseppe most right now, but I really think the fourth line could boil down to an old school training camp try out with Derek Ryan, Lucas Wallmark and maybe even Nicolas Roy battling for the center slot, and Brock McGinn, Phil Di Giuseppe, Joakim Nordstrom and others battling for the wing slots.
Also note that I did not at this early juncture venture a guess for which Hurricanes player will be claimed by Las Vegas in the expansion draft.
Carolina Hurricanes defense pairings
Jaccob Slavin / Brett Pesce
Noah Hanifin or veteran addition / Justin Faulk
Veteran addition / Haydn Fleury or Roland McKeown
Noah Hanifin’s strong play now in 6 games in the top 4 since the Ron Hainsey trade suggests he might be ready to assume a bigger role. But if Francis wants to fairly aggressively play for 2017-18, I think he adds 1 middle price range veteran #4/#5 defenseman. The name I threw out at the trade deadline was Jason Garrison from Tampa Bay who has a $4.6 million salary cap hit that the Lightning might want to unload but a fairly budget-friendly $2.5 million actual salary. There are other options. The basic idea is to add a veteran #4/#5 defenseman, ideally who could play either side to either fill the #4 slot until someone else is ready or provide veteran stability for the bottom pairing alongside a young defenseman.
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
Cam Ward
New 1A/1B
March has the potential to change things significantly, but as of right now, my best guess is that Francis will opt to stick with Ward but will try to upgrade the other goalie slot. With the expansion draft, a couple trade possibilities and a high volume of free agents, I think Francis and his scouting staff will take the best shot they can to upgrade the slot currently occupied by Lack with Lack either being traded or bought out. That said, the Hurricanes have 20 games that they can use to prepare for 2017-18, and I think Lack will get every opportunity to play his way back into the picture.
What say you?
What do you project for lines/combinations for the start of the 2017-18 season?
How many and what positions, do you think Francis will add from outside of the current roster and the system?
Go Canes!
My guess is that Joakim Nordstrom ends up being our expansion draft loss. He’s a good penalty killer, has speed to burn, and maybe a little offensive upside. Add in his solid defensive tendencies and I think he finds his way to Vegas this Summer. While Stempniak is clearly, in my mind, the other unprotected forward, Vegas may cross us up and select a minor leaguer or even Murphy (but I doubt it). So the 4th line could very well include a wildcard, even a returning Viktor Stalberg.
I think that is a reasonable guess. I don’t think whoever is left exposed on D will be a worthy pickup, so I think it comes down to best available, ideally young, forward.
An agitator, more physical player for the fourth line would be helpful. As the Canes get better, they are liable to be more subject to a physical challenge since they are a “finesse” team. I’d like to see some more aggressive players whether on the fourth line or on defense to counter that style of play.
I agree we need to get a couple of top six forwards. What about Bo Horvat with Vancouver as one? Does anyone see him as one part of the solution? Also, about Gauthier, they have tried to make him more of a playmaker this year causing his goals to go down and his assists rise significantly. What I saw of him in camp was a sniper with a very accurate shot who would go to the front of the net to do his damage. I hope we don’t “reinvent” him to another “pass first” forward. His strength is down low with an excellent and accurate shot. In other words, a scorer with a big net presence.
I like Dahlback for sure as one of the veteran defenseman you mention a need for. He’s not so veteran, but I see a defenseman who can skate and has a good shot as well as playing a decent defense. I’m interested in everyone else’s thoughts about this.
Otherwise, you guys have pretty well covered things and I have no quarrel with any of the views expressed.
Three points –
1/ Our goaltending has been too inconsistent and has cost us too many games. A clear #1 goalie is the biggest need. It’s painful (and expensive) to do what Toronto did last offseason, but my vote would be to be bold and try and solve this problem. I’ve heard many times, Carolina would be a playoff team “if only their goaltending was league-average.” That should not be the goal. The goal should be to turn it into a position of strength, not something to work around. It’s like a QB in football, you’re not really a solid team until you have one.
2/ I’ve become convinced that our bigger need on offense is not a playmaking center but a goal-scoring finisher. If someone were to just look at our play over this recent stretch without looking at the score, with the exception of a period here and there (especially P1 against Florida), you’d think we were winning most games. And we were, almost everywhere except on the scoreboard, where it counts.
We’ve had countless A+ chances over the last 10 games that haven’t been converted. Lindholm and Aho and TT and to a lesser degree Rask and Staal create volumes of scoring chances: we’ve been simply poor at converting them into goals. To me, this is the real issue on offense. So my second vote is to invest in an elite finisher.
3/ Any trade – and I think trading is the only realistic way we’re going to land the talent we seek – is going to include existing roster players, probably a defenseman but maybe not exclusively. The only untouchables for me are Slavin, Pesce, Staal, Aho, and Lindholm. Everyone else is available. I think it’s going to be painful and risky to upgrade but bold trades ala Johansen-for-Jones or Larson-for-Hall (that may also include our stash of picks) is what it will take. Maybe even two of them.
Just to backup some of your comments: 1) To me scoring comes easiest when you have a line where all three players (center and 2 wings) have the ability to finish. When you have this you exponentially increase your scoring potential. First, when one of the three shoots you have a greater chance of scoring a goal and a greater chance for producing rebounds and other mayhem around the goalie. Second, when the rebound or other mayhem occurs you have two other players on the ice with a higher capability to finish and put the puck in the net. In other words, if you only have one finisher on a line, you generally miss out on picking up a high percentage of rebounds and loose pucks caused by a shot on the goalie.
Regarding your comments on the whole I agree with them and they are well stated IMO. I look forward to your input as you have a straight to the point practical approach to solving problems. Keep up the input.
The needs everybody have mentioned are all very valid, but my continuing concern is how RF IS BLIND TO THEM, or just refuses to
deal with ALL OF THEM. We could move 6-10 of our players w/o changing much, if we don’t fix the problems…we’ve already iterated! Goalie, Center, Scoring Wing… I’m skeptical we get them!
I think all the forward lines make sense. And maybe Roy or Gauthier can both be wild cards as top 9. Roy is actually more productive in the juniors this year–and if I am reading things correctly, he was considered the better prospect as recently as 2 years ago. Though it also appears he is penalty prone and may have anger/control issues. From what I have seen this year, I think both McGinn and Di Guiseppe could contribute on the 4th line. Hope we get to see Wallmark before the year is out.
I think it is on D where things might be most interesting. I know the ideal is to have one L shot and one R shot, but not focusing on that one requirement, the pairings could be:
Pesce/Hanifin I remember reading earlier this year that statistics indicate that Pesce makes whoever he is paired with better. And the biggest upside is Hannifin
Slavin/Fleury Slavin seems to be picking up his offensive activity. And based solely on plus/minus it appears that Fleury is really solid defensively. So they would make sense.
The big maybe is
Faulk/Bean Don’t have any idea if Bean would be ready, but he gets mostly rave reviews and is seen as having the potential to be a point-producing defenseman. So get him with Faulk and they could be involved in power plays and then work as the 3rd pairing.
So the need from trades/free agents would be for one scoring forward and a top goaltender. As I mentioned in a previous post, I would hope that goalie could be Darling. He is “new” enough that he shouldn’t be outrageously expensive, yet has played enough that his statistics should be valid. And the statistics indicate that he is significantly above average.
I realize that there is a lot of reliance on young players (Wallmark, Gauthier, Roy, Bean, Fleury) so it probably is not completely realistic. But I do think all the above players will eventually be contributors and one or two will be top players. Also, getting strong goalie in itself might push team into playoffs.
Forwards: Aho, Gauthier, Skinner, Stempniak, Tuerovainen, Stalberg (resigned), Wallmark, DiGuiseppe
Centers: Staal, Rask, McClement, Traded for No. 1 center
Defense: Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, Faulk, Murphy, Dahlberg
Goalie: Traded for No. 1, Ward
Comments:
1. We resign Stalberg and reunite with McClement and add DiGuiseppe to form 4th line. Why mess with success? 4th line effective this year.
2. We keep Murphy as he has very good end of 2017 season. Also, Dahlbeerg as he has speed and shot and is dependable defensively. Defense has been successful and we need to concentrate on improving areas of weakness which are scoring and goaltending.
3. We must trade for number 1 scoring center.
4. Gauthier will give us a scoring forward if we don’t try to reinvent his game. He’s a goal scorer, a down low sniper with a very accurate and lethal shot. Forget about making him into a playmaker.