The 2019 NHL Draft weekend is officially here and with it the start of the two-week frenzy that includes the majority of the significant off-season player movement.
The Hurricanes are making a regular entry in the rumblings and rumors for the second straight year which has some merit given that the team has a couple needs and also some marketable young players.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe has the courage to go out on a limb and predict the weekend and beyond.
On Brett Pesce
Brett Pesce’s name continues to come in trade rumors. That has one set of people predicting trades involving Brett Pesce and antoher set of people increasing their hedging verbiage that he will stay with words like ‘doubt he will go’, ‘would take a lot’ or other things tha prevent them from being wrong if he is traded.
I will go out on a limb and say first that Pesce’s name will continue to be front and center on Friday and into Saturday in the rumor mill but at the same time that he is not really in jeopardy of being traded. I think what is happening is a few things. First, invariably teams are in fact asking about Pesce and/or proposing offers to get him. As I said on Twitter, who would not want a proven, right shot top 4 defenseman who is only 24 years old and signed long-term for a discounted $4 million per year? So since his name is in fact in conversations, I guess it is legitimate that he is also being mentioned in the rumor mill. And no doubt Don Waddell is fielding calls from these teams because he does have interest in the forwards that are being offered — just not for Pesce.
So Pesce will legitimately be in the rumor mill on Friday and Saturday but will never actually be even close to being traded and we will wake up when the draft weekend is over with Brett Pesce still on the Hurricanes roster.
So if there is so much interest and value in Brett Pesce, why shouldn’t the Hurricanes consider trading him? Two reasons…First, the Hurricanes spent about five years waiting for a young blue line to emerge and become a strength. It actually took reinforcements in Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan to get there, but it finally happened in 2018-19. That blue line was a key component in finally returning to the playoffs. I view Pesce as a core part of that success and also the team’s best defensive defenseman over the full 82-game season. So after FINALLY building a blue line that is a strength, some want to trade a core part of it in Pesce because he has trade value? Admittedly, the version of how I see it is one that considers Pesce to be a significantly more important part of this equation than Faulk. (I am on record as saying that for some time and stand by it.) Second is the importance of cost in today’s NHL. Pesce is slated to make $4 million per year for five years. That is an outright bargain if Pesce continues to play at his current level. If the Hurricanes instead decide to trade Pesce and re-sign Faulk, his cost could be $8 million per year. Even if one considers the two players to be somewhat interchangeable (I do not), that difference between $4 million and $8 million is significant.
With the swirling rumors suggesting otherwise I guess I must now prepare to possibly eat crow on this one.
‘Sunday offers’
Based on the interest in Pesce, I think Friday night and Saturday are basically a 36-hour stretch of Waddell saying no thank you to a bunch of offers for Pesce. But many of the teams that will be active in the trade discussions are teams that more or less have deadlines to cut salary and do so fairly soon. Waddell is smart enough to know this, and he has a decent collection of assets that could help teams in this regard. Players like Brock McGinn and Lucas Wallmark have a decent amount of NHL experience such that they are capable bottom 6 forwards who come with a low salary cap hit.
So I think Waddell can and will make a couple of decent what I call ‘Sunday morning’ offers which is to say offers that underpay slightly in trade assets but do offer some return and help to salary cap-strapped teams. At some point, teams like Winnipeg, Toronto and other teams needing cap relief will have to shift from bargaining for what they ideally want to taking the best that they can get.
This is where I think Waddell tries to opportunistically swing his next ‘oh wow’ deal.
Components of Canes trade offers
I see the Hurricanes using some combination of three types of assets to build packages aimed at luring a top 6 forward.
Justin Faulk — I continue to think that he is the defenseman most likely to be traded.
Inexpensive bottom half of the roster NHLers — At forward Lucas Wallmark and Brock McGinn bring different types of reasonably proven bottom 6 NHL forwards. On defense, Haydn Fleury could fill a third pairing slot for a sub $1 million salary.
Futures — I do not see the Hurricanes trading a first-round pick or one of the higher-end prospects, but I could see the Hurricanes dipping into the second tier of prospects or draft picks.
Potential packages
Justin Faulk + Brock McGinn + second round draft pick to a team that needs blue line help and is willing to part with a top 6 scoring forward.
Lucas Wallmark + Brock McGinn + mid-round draft pick to a team that needs salary cap relief and low-cost roster NHLers to make it work.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree that the Pesce rumors and rumblings are just that and that he is not really available at all?
2) What is your outlook for the Hurricanes over the draft weekend?
3) Who has deals they predict?
Go Canes!
1. We have to get the hockey equivalent of a pot of gold for Pesce before he goes. I don’t see it happening for Kapenen. I do see it happening for Marner, which isn’t happening.
2. I expect there may well be a deal involving a RHD (not named Pesce) and picks/prospects; alternately (and possibly in addition) a cap-based trade with one of the several teams under the cap gun.
3. I actually think Kapenen may be on the Canes roster under the first scenario in 2.
I’m with you, Matt, on the Pesce perception. I don’t think he’ll be moved. Moreover, I think that most of the rumors around him were constructed by the media. My guess is Waddell turned down lots of offers and/or even shut them down before they started. Pesce, and especially his contract, has more value to this team than many others.
I suspect there will be lots of attempts at deals, most of them surrounding Faulk, with lots of teams asking for Hamilton. My sense is Rod realizes what Hamilton brings offensively and begrudgingly has bought into his defensive deficiencies (which are mostly overblown) because he knows the value of that offense. If TVR were not hurt, I would think there’d be lots of discussion around him as a trade chip, mostly as part of a larger package. In the end, I give it 50/50 that Faulk gets moved. I’d be more inclined to think we do a deal with lesser assets, perhaps a quantity over quality thing.
If we do a deal with Toronto, this is where I think my previous statement might come into play. Look at Toronto’s cupboard….it is essentially bare. They’ve got Bracco, Sandin, Lilgegren, and a couple of goalie prospects…and that’s it. They are cash strapped. This is where I could see us sending picks and prospects and perhaps a secondary asset to get a guy like Kapanen. Believe me, if the Leafs don’t trade Johnsson or Kapanen by July 1, then offer sheets will show for one or more of those guys. For the record, I feel the same about Roslovic in Winnepeg. Both of these clubs need cap space and/or cannot afford to realitically sign critical RFAs. A futures/prospects deal likely comes into play. Laugh all you want, but I could see something like our 1st rounder and Roland McKeown for Kapanen becoming a reality. Otherwise, teams could easily force their hands with an offer sheet. Both could use an RHD, 3rd pairing or otherwise.
I agree that if not injured, van Riemsdyk could be a valuable trade chip as part of a package. He is a proven, solid #5 and capable of at a minimum filling in higher up. $2.3M is a good price for that for a team trying to make the salary cap math work.
1. Agree with tj–only what other teams consider a vast overpayment should be taken for Pesce. He is at least as valuable as Slavin. In fact when you consider that he was drafted one year later, is six months younger, made the team better both defensively AND offensively, and is signed for $1.25M less, the argument that Pesce is more valuable than Slavin is strong.
2. I think the Canes trade with Vegas–which after signing Stone is up against the cap. It will be picks and prospects.
I wouldn’t trade Wallmark. Thinking that he is “merely” a bottom 6 filler is underselling him. Both his style and his career trajectory is similar to Frans Nielsen.
McGinn is RBA’s type of player, but I could see him as part of a package.
3) McGinn and #36 for Erik Haula.
By all reports Dundon wants a successful team, but also wants to turn a profit. He will need to keep salaries under control for that to happen. Just about zero chance he trades a good player signed to an inexpensive contract.
I doubt there are that many calls for Faulk. I expect the calls are coming from Waddell. Teams looking for a RD could be looking at Faulk, Ristolainen, or Tyson Barrie. They can pit the teams against each other. There is a good chance Faulk would be just a one year rental, so that would reduce his value as well.
My prediction is no trades this weekend.
Agree with all of this. Moving Pesce would be huge mistake without a massive return.
I like the idea of patience and taking advantage of other teams desperation, especially since the cap will be below the $83 mil that had been rumored. Especially since we have depth in Charlotte and have a young team that can continue to improve.
I have no doubt that other teams are asking about Pesce but I would be quite surprised if he’s traded for all the reasons mentioned. Having said that, listening to offers for Pesce gives GMTW a better view into the value of the players being offered by the other team for him, so there’s no downside to listening. He’s in the information-gathering business.
We have picks 28, 36, 37, and 59. A good chunk of our current roster is made up of players selected in this area, so they have high value. I would be somewhat surprised if we used the all, especially given how deep our prospect pool is relative to other teams. Even if we don’t make a headline trade using one of our RHD for a Top-6 forward (which is what everyone is expecting), I think there’s a much higher chance we make a smaller trade or two to defer picks into future years or to possibly even trade up this year.
I still believe the right play with Faulk it to keep talking but slow-play the negotiations into next season while listening to all offers for him. The Trouba trade, even though he came from WIN, who is on the cap-constrained side of the ledger and probably couldn’t take back a player with salary, is the best trade-value comparable for Faulk: a 1st + a bottom-pairing defensemen. Somewhat sobering.
Agree with the comment that TOR and WIN and VGK, etc. are going to eventually switch from bargaining for what they want to taking what they can get. I think the threat of an Offer Sheet to the player we’re targeting (Kapanen, whoever that is) sets the ceiling for the compensation back in a trade. That middle-tier of a 1st and a 3rd for a $4-6-mil/yr player doesn’t seem outlandish to me.
At the risk of seeming even more idiotic that I already seem:
– Wallmark and 3rd-rd pick for Kadri
– McKeown and 5th-rd pick for Puljujärvi (I’d take a chance on this guy)
– Fleury and #59 for Kapanen
– Faulk and McGinn for Conner Brown
Even though the team was tightly-knit and successful, they over-achieved and especially need to get better on the PP (which starts from the back end). Also don’t think the team is sold on Aho as 1C. Gut feeling says this offseason we may be surprised as TD/DW/RBA are not status quo types. Here goes my take:
Extend Faulk 5yr @ 6.5mil
Offer sheet Kapanen (5yr @ 5mil)
Trade
To EDM: Fleury
To CAR: Puljujarvi
Trade
To VGN: Pesce + Wallmark
To CAR: W. Karlsson + T. Nosek
Trade
To OTT: Scott Darling + 2019 3rd & prospect
To CAR: Craig Anderson (Ottawa needs to reach the floor and can buy out Darling; Anderson grooms Ned and gets one last ‘kick at the can’ behind a better team and defense).
Sign veteran goalie for CLT as emergency callup.
Promote Patrick Brown to handle 4C role.
Sign veteran defenseman via free agency as insurance.
Promote Necas, Bean, Sellgren and McKweon as needed.
Your OTT/CAR made my head spin! LOL! But it makes some sense – maybe even more so because Darling may not be medically cleared to play. He suffered either a broken foot or a severe sprain in his first or second practice after returning to CLT from his personal leave. If he is not medically cleared to play he cannot be bought out.
Plus the value Darling may have as a piece in that type of trade makes him more valuable in that role. DW and you may be much smarter than the rest of us.
Well, what I said about linking Darlng’s injury in a positive way to lfd’s OTT trade scenario made absolutely no sense. OTT won’t be able to buy him out if his injury persists and makes him medically unable to play.
I am sure Dundon would sign Faulk at that number in a second. Faulk’s agent would laugh out loud. He’s going to be asking for $7M or more.
I like Kapanen, but I think the memories of his father inflate his value here. I don’t necessarily think he is a top 6 winger on a good team. Third liner, good defensively, and chips in some points. I also think offer sheets are mostly concoctions of the media. Hasn’t been one since 2013.
Vegas trade? Oh, my, no.
Ottawa trade? Interesting. May actually work.
I’d be fine with making no big moves this weekend.
There is another blogger on the Checkers website about how Necas and Jurco bring out the best in each other. I think signing Jurco and bringing the duo to the NHL together as two thirds of a line would be a low risk potentially high return try. If Walmark shows flahhes of better offense, this could be a new third line.
IN a Hockeybuzz pretend draft the canes guy, whose nickname is Bingo, traded two of our second round picks to LA for the 2nd pick and Toffoli. Doesn’t sound like a terrible deal either.
Puljujärvi: Unless our Finns and the committee really like him then pass. I think he will end up in the KHL.
Pesce: No trade except for like Austin Mathews.
Faulk: His contract dictates how much return. Where does he want to go? Minn?
Goaltender: hadn’t heard about the injury for Scott. very fluid but I still prefer Petr.
Good point on over valuing Kapanen; was big fan of Sami
I don’t know how others view Jesse Puljujärvi but Sebastian Aho is friends with him and has played with him both in Kärpät and in Finnish national teams (mainly in juniors).
What in the world are the Canes up to?
They supposedly don’t have money to resign Aho or Faulk but they acquire Marlow from Tor in exchange for a 6th round pick (ok, Marlow and a first in 2020 or 2021, keep in mind that with the quality that Tor has on their squad right now this pick will be as good as a second round pick sine it will be in the mid 20s at best, probably pick 31).
I don’t see the logic of this I must say, other than helping Toronto.
If we got one of Tor’s players like Kapanen or Jonson this would be a bit like the Blackhawks deal that yielded TT, but for a what effectively translates to a second round pick?
I hope this is the first of a series of strategic moves, because on its own this looks dumb.
Not to mention that in actual money he would’ve cost $1.25 mill after July 1st (his bonus is due on July 1st).
Again, this makes no sense to me, a second round pick for 6 million dollars (or 3 mill if he is bought out), we don’t need another second round pick, we need impact players.
Let’s see if the Canes plan to trade this pick along with something else for G or offense in the next couple of hours.
If so, I get the logic and can give it a thumbs up.
If not, I remain a bit WTF.
It’s a little bit of a head scratcher. Marlow had a no-trade clause. He had to waive it. Either the Canes agreed to buy him out, or they actually want him to play here. If they buy him out Dundon just spent a couple million dollars for draft picks next year. If Dundon doesn’t have to buy him out he could play hardball and demand Marlow play here in Carolina. If Marlow won’t play here it costs the Canes zero, just cap space of which they have plenty.
Hey guys, a little bit of information I read that make this make a little more sense. Toronto was dying because of the 6m cap hit. This thing is, his real salaries is quite low. We could buy him out, he can go the SJC. It costs us not very much and we get the draft picks. He could even stay with us. He is still a pretty good player, it’s not just the goals. We have a low cost buy out if we want it. I thought the same thing, 6m, why do that. The real salary is low. We have cap room this year so it is nothing to us. We are not going to be close to the ceiling.
I noticed what you said about his bonus on July 1. Now I am scratching my head again?? I guess I will wait and see what plays out.
Here is a little Prozac for those who think the Canes had a bad weekend. https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/27024622/2019-nhl-draft-grades-best-picks-value-steals-more-all-31-teams
I have read comments from a half dozen writers for the Athletic. They all say that we did better than very well in the Marleau deal. They all make a compelling case. Further, one writer analyzed all of our drafts and said in his opinion we hit a home run with all of them. I am impressed.
Finally, I am reading comments that tell me that things are going well with both Faulk and Aho.
I am very encouraged.
I know I was happy with the draft. Nobody expected Suzuki to be there at 28. What a pick and then the second best goalie in the draft. Every pick looked good. Still kind of wonder about Marleau. Low salary but 3M bonus in two installments (July & Dec). If we do buy him out then the first round draft pick cost some money. Hopefully he views as a contender as well and wants to stay.
DW said Suzuki was ranked #12 on their list, so getting him at 28 is pretty good.
The biggest knock on him is his effort/commitment, so he’s definitely not a typical Roddie player., but if Roddie can whip him into shape he could be a playmaking center of some note, so good pick.
The draft hall looks good, though none of those players will help the Canes directly for a couple of years at best. It’s the next season I am thinking about and was hoping to see management make a few upgrades, something I’m sure they’re still looking at.