Putting the obvious disclaimer up front, it is obviously too early to make any kind of final assessment of the Hurricanes roster. But for those of us who are Hurricanes hockey die-hards, we have to bandy something around in mid-July, so working with what we have is the only option.
The leadership is still untouched, but the Hurricanes roster has undergone a reasonably significant transition below that level. The team has added five new NHL players in addition to the potential for 3-4 rookies to also play their way onto the opening night roster. Fun right now is to focus on the potential improvements (which are legitimate), but with all the moving parts, the potential exists to create deficiencies too. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe details a few potential deficiencies generated by the player movement thus far.
1) The penalty kill
The Hurricanes struggled to a 24th place finish on the penalty kill in 2017-18, so at first glance significant changeover here could be a good thing. But there can be benefit in continuity and familiarity too. Whereas the team arguably needed to add penalty killing talent, it has mostly shed this at the forward position. Gone is the entirety of the fourth line that was expected to do the heavy lifting in this regard in 2017-18. All of Joakim Nordstrom, Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris are elsewhere now. Elias Lindholm is also out of the mix. Jordan Staal and Brock McGinn return, but past that training camp should include some auditions. On defense, mainstays Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce, but with Slavin’s propensity to be on the ice for every (41 out of 43) power play goals against, it is even possible that he is replaced. Calvin de Haan is nearly certain to draw in, so there hopefully are enough options on the back end. Significantly, Coach Steve Smith re-signed to take a similar job with the Buffalo Sabres. Though the 2017-18 results were not good, Smith had led a strong penalty killing group in all of the other years he has been running it.
2) The center position
The Hurricanes have fairly quickly gone from being a team with a ton of depth at the center position to a team with upside but also significant lack of experience in key slots. Again, Kruger and Lindholm are gone, as is Derek Ryan. With Rask’s down 2017-18 season, I think it is fair to say that at the center position the current Hurricanes roster would enter the 2018-19 season with significant upside looking into the future but also with significant question marks. Jordan Staal is a solid starting point. Sebastian Aho will be fine with the offensive part of the game at the center position but will still be growing into the role in other areas. Again, Rask is a bit of a question mark coming off his sub-par 2017-18 season. And as promising as Necas is, he is unproven at the NHL level. It pains me to say it, but current Hurricanes centers remind me a bit of the blue line recently in that they have a ton of upside but may or may not be ready for the season ahead.
3) Face-off acumen
Amid various other struggles, one thing that the Hurricanes did do well under Coach Bill Peters was win the possession and shot total battles pretty consistently. A key factor in this success was the team’s face-off ability that had the team in the top half of the league. But with the departure of Elias Lindholm and Derek Ryan, the Hurricanes lose two good right shot face-off options. Martin Necas is a right shot, but he is inexperienced obviously. And if the team is going to commit to Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas at center, it will have to also let them take their share of draws. If Aho and Necas do start at center, it will be interesting to see how big the downgrade is in face-offs and how significant the impact is on broader play including possession.
4) The goalie position
I am not sure I would so much call the goalie position a deficiency necessarily but rather a complete wild card. With two players whose ceiling is high enough but who are both looking to rebound from recent struggles, the range of possibilities is really wide entering the season. Though I was not a fan of him as a starter for 2018-19, Ward was the better of the two goalies in 2017-18. If neither player rebounds, the potential is definitely there for the Hurricanes to maintain their regular position near the bottom of the NHL goalie rankings.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of the four potential deficiencies with the current roster most concerns you?
2) Do you see any other potential deficiencies generated by the roster changes so far?
Go Canes!
To help solve all but the goaltender issues there are still decent centers that could provide some scoring available.
Derek Grant, Daniel Winnik, and Mark Letestu. All of them have a 52+ faceoff winning percentage. They could play 4th line center between Martinook & Ferland/McGinn. Push Rask to the Necasnichov line. I’d bet any of them would take a 2 year 900k deal with the 2nd year being a team option.
Are there team options in NHL contracts?
nope, got my sports mixed up. Well it may cost a little more but they should be able to do a 1 year deal.
I think I prefer the phrase “questions” rather than “potential deficiencies” so I want to try to respond from that perspective.
The goalie question is well-known and oft-discussed. I view it as having two goalies who have both played at exceptionally high levels who are both in need of serious redemption. If one succeeds, we will both be okay. If both succeed, we in excellent shape. The biggest risk factor is both foundering. That risk factor concerns me the most.
We have had close to league-leading faceoff success for the past several years – that hasn’t translated game success, so I am less concerned with any falloff on this. Necas has been working hard on his FO skills, and you have to imagine Aho has too. Even if Aho and Necas struggle, it can at least in part mitigated by in-game tactics and placement. The Canes, in years past, have demonstrated that team faceoff success is an overrated metric.
Let the young centers (Aho, Necas, Wallmark(? – I wonder if we retain Rask)) play and learn from their mistakes – drill them in training camp and practices. But I would be concerned if Aho struggles with the full-time adjustment to NHL centering or Necas has issues stepping up.
Every year we have a turnover in our PK teams. We shake it up and find a crew that works for us. We can’t be much worse than last year and we have added CdH (and added by subtracting Kruger??). I think the big risk factor right now is who will be coaching the PK? From there it’s the approach, and then the players playing to their roles. We were fortunate two years ago having Stalberg playing the point – he was aggressive and disruptive, even more so than Staal. I really think that is what made out PK so effective two seasons ago – we are very disruptive in the neutral zone and we had the personnel to pull it off. Will we play it the same way? Will Martinook or Maenalaenen (sp??) be able to step in and fill Stalberg’s role? Are we going to be really good?, or just meh?
I also felt Stalberg was the one who made that penalty kill so good. He was lightning fast, tough and could score. Nobody could get through the middle. I remember wondering why we ever let him go and sign overseas. If we could duplicate him we may be back in business on the PK.
Absolutely agree. He is playing in the Swiss National League now, and scored better than a PPG last season.
These are all important points. The center depth and goalie have been talked about at length. I’m still hoping that a Faulk and/or Skinner trade will add a top-6 center. Rask is a huge question mark for this team, especially coming off surgery.
Is Martinook a penalty killer? I was thinking that he would be part of that group. If not, it’s definitely looking thin on the PK unit, especially if Staal-McGinn take a penalty. Has Foegle played on PK in Charlotte – perhaps he could make a case for himself in that role in Raleigh?
Without question the Goaltending situation is the biggest question. As a Canes fan I’m optimistic but lets be real here. Darling had one of the worst single season performances in the last 20 years at the position. The Monster is coming off a few years of poor hockey. Way to many ifs to feel good about that tandem moving forward. Yes, both could have a resurgence, the chances of one of them finding there game and going on a run is possible but hard to bet the season on either.
Face offs are going to be an issue. DR and Lindy were very solid in that regard. Younger players typically struggle at the dots.
I’m not worried about Aho’s game at Center. Its been brought up a bunch and I don’t see it. He has been a center his whole life and has played well there. He is good on both sides of the puck and his vision and hockey sense is one of the things that makes him special.
I think we need to see the rest of the roster moves before I can make to many more guesses. Faulk and Skinner particularly and what their return may be.
I agree with all of these and will add one more, which seems to be the primary reason that Skinner and Faulk are being shopped: will there actually be a turn towards a winning culture that disrupts the current trajectory of the existing culture of mediocrity?
That probably involves a bigger change in our core than has occurred to date and it’s very unclear/uncertain whether it will change by the start of the season given how difficult it is to make trades.
I agree on this. Stipulating that a culture of mediocrity and loss-acceptance had set in, then we don’t have the changeover (yet) with relatively minor players plus Lindy and Hanifin moved.
Goaltending is a question, but the potential answers are in place. Hope they hold up.
The Canes are very thin at center. There is Staal, Aho, Necas and Rask. Only one is proven in the NHL. Rask has two question marks floating around him. There is his shoulder and his inconsistent effort. Unless the Canes add another center Rask is going to be counted on to play big minutes, IMO. I hope he comes through as well. I would be fine with either Aho or Necas entering the lineup as a young centerman. Both of them together makes me nervous.
I totally disagree that faceoffs are an overrated metric. They lead to possession which is key to winning games. Sure, if pucks go past your goaltender at a very high rate you will still lose. That doesn’t mean winning faceoffs isn’t important. As far as faceoffs go I think the Canes will be thin early, but over the past several years the Canes centermen have seemed to improve in the circle. The current head coach may have a little to do with that. I predict the Canes will improve through the season on draws.
When your head coach is one of the best defensive centermen the game has seen I think the design of the PK will be just fine. Do the Canes have the skaters up front they need? Good question. I think Foegele, Necas and Aho are potential PK candidates. All three can skate. The question is are they willing to do what is necessary to play positionally sound?
I left out Wallmark at center. This training camp is a huge opportunity for him. If he plays well he could jump up the depth chart. He has been good at draws in his limited time in the NHL. If he wins draws, plays well defensively and chips in a little offense it will be hard to put him back in Charlotte.
I think the question of culture is a good one, maybe the most important one, though hardest to quantify.
Is it necessary or sufficient to switch out the personne? Or does the issue lie elsewhere.
Remember how Eric Staal was fading fast. Then he was traded, got his summer conditioning routine together and has been lighting it up for the Wild since.
What changed? Why didn’t he do this with the Canes?
Was he getting too comfortable (we all get comfortable in jobsand roles we’ve held for a long time).
The team seems to be a relaxed, family oriented feel good story kind of team (the parent trips, the taco and water commercials, Forslund doing play by play on the coffee routines).
Nothing wrong with those necessarily, but there’s just been too much of a “feel good” vibe around the team, not enough competitive edge “we’ll do what it takes” attitude.
I’m not sure if just switching up personnel will fix this, maybe it’s more about coaching style, management style, expectations.
If so we could see redemption from the playres that didn’t get it done last year.
But if it is the personnel, than changes have to be made.
If anything, Eric Staal was part of the “feel good” problem with the Canes. If he upped his physical condition after washing out with the Canes and Rangers that suggests he didn’t do his best while in Carolina. Teams have little control over players in the off season. They do what they want. When it comes to expectations the leaders in the locker room are every bit as influential as coaches and management. Staal owns some of that.
Matt. I know you probably plan out in advance your topics–but thanks for touching on the areas that most concern me.
1) The penalty kill (because no matter if the D is much better and the rookies live up to the highest expectations, it is difficult to overcome giving up goals at a higher rate than the league). Having a fall-back or insurance option for Aho and Necas at center is nearly as concerning.
Relating to yesterday’s discussion. The consensus is that Faulk will be moved. So it would make sense to address as many of these areas as possible. There are enough rumors to make me think Faulk to Chicago for Saad won’t happen–that would have been close to ideal even if he is not a center. But surely there are other options.
One trade I saw mentioned on another site might make sense: Faulk to Toronto for Hyman and Pickard. Toronto could use a right D with scoring. Hyman is a really sound winger (perhaps a good fit for Necas/Svechnikov since he has been used with Matthews). He has recorded significant minutes on the penalty kill–actually getting 4 shorties in 16-17. He likes to hit and doesn’t give the puck away. While Pickard might be available on waivers, there is an advantage to having a 3-way competition throughout the preseason because it increases the chance of success.
The other team that gets mentioned where there might be a fit is Minnesota. Based on need (center, face-offs, plays some pk) maybe Faulk for Coyle.
2) This actually relates to the penalty kill. I am concerned that the penalties taken could increase significantly. Hamilton takes a decent number of penalties (de Haan is more disciplined so replacing Hanifin is a wash from a penalty standpoint). Svechnikov has taken a high number of penalties the past two seasons in USHL and OHL. Ferland is good–equivalent to Kruger. Zykov or Martinook, either will take significantly more penalties than Lindholm or Ryan.
So on the whole the team is likely to have 80-120 more penalty minutes this season. I find that concerning.
In doing some perusing on Jordan Martinook perhaps he can help in a few areas. He can kill penalties, take draws and was voted hardest working player on his team. Staal, Martinook, McGinn, and perhaps Foegele will have the lions share of PK time. It would not hurt to have a right shot who can take draws and PK.
Goalie situation is what it is. Many organizations are probably entering the season with hope as a part of their goalie plan. Not ideal but two goalies who have had success will get a shot. Perhaps Ned goes all Matt Murray on us if he gets called up for a chance.
Many have commented correctly that it is tough to see the final lineup due to possible trades. If we the fans see potential deficiencies, it is probable that the front office does as well.
If Foegele makes the NHL roster to start the season (good chance but by no means a sure thing), it will be interesting to see if he is used on PK and how he does.
On the one hand, he projects to be a good penalty killer in terms of skill set, aggressive style/attitude and his ability to score short-handed at the AHL level. But in his short NHL stint, I think he looked like he had a significant adjustment ahead of him. Short version is that he lacked the ability to identify/anticipate and play passing lanes. Defending an NHL penalty kill by trying to get to the player with the puck and defense is impossible. In admittedly a tiny sample size, this is here I thought Foegele still was. The question is how much the team lets him learn on the job and how quickly he can grow.
It was brief glimpse last season. I would have liked to have seen more of his game as well. I hope he gets his shot, but Martinook may have the inside track on that slot Foegele was hoping to get. Foegele has the size and speed to play. I think he has the desire as well. He is a proven winner, so from my perspective I hope he gets his chance this year.
I’m not sure how much of Foegele we will see as long as Skinner is with the Canes. There is a bit of a logjam at LW.
1) Penalty Kill – Was Steve Smith a genius at the penalty kill? The same season his pk unit was rated #1 in the NHL, the Canes were also the least penalized team in the NHL. Last season, an essential cog in the pk wheel (Marcus Kruger) played while injured (painfully). What else was present that we didn’t know about?
This year, we start anew. Roddy, I’m sure, has ideas about what he has and what he needs.
He knows all too well the importance of having a good pk unit.
2) The Center Position – Much has been said and will be said about whether we are deep or shallow at the center position. I believe that it is all a matter of perspective. Yes, we have mostly young forwards. They lack NHL experience. Can they rise to the occasion? We shall see.
I don’t think it would be easy, or even possible to get a savior scoring catalyst center via trade. Remember Matt Duchane? How did that trade work out for the Senators?
3) Faceoff Acumen – Our head coach was one of the best faceoff artists in the game. He is now one of the best teachers.
4) The Goalie Position – if we have learned anything from our experience over the years it is that we cannot predict how a player is going to play this year. This is especially true of goalies.
Why?
Perhaps it is because of the fact that the keeper’s position is one where the player must always be on his game. Other players in the lineup can be off, and his teammates can cover for him. Not so for the keeper.
Given the uniqueness of the position and the stress of it all, keepers must be different types of people from the rest of the team.
Great keepers from NHL history, Glenn Hall and Roger Crozier, confessed that very often just before a game, they would each throw up in a bucket. Yet, on the ice, each was a cool customer.
We have 2 keepers who have each proved they can play very well. Each has expressed a desire to play winning hockey.
Until one or both of them proves otherwise, that’s good enough for me.
While you all have done a fantastic job covering all the talking points so that I’ve had little to say so far, I finally get to jump in with this. We’ve replaced Steve Smith with a guy that only Waddell and Dudley really know who he is:
https://www.canescountry.com/2018/7/17/17582998/carolina-hurricanes-hire-dean-chynoweth-as-assistant-coach
I didn’t think I would ever say this three months ago, but I kind of trust the brain trust on this.
He certainly seems to have experience. Both assistants now have AHL head coach experience and NHL assistant coaching experience.
Chynoweth was a scrapper in his playing days. I sense he will bring some of that mentality to the bench. Looks like a no nonsense kind of guy.
Perhaps some of you have seen this ranking of prospects. Thought I would pass along. Carolina seems to be in good shape with prospects.
https://dobberprospects.com/2018-19-organizational-prospects-rankings/