Informal Cane and Coffee watch party at Bond Brothers Beer in Cary for Canes vs. Isles at 7pm on Thursday.
With a small core of commitments and a decent number of maybes, a group will be watching Thursday’s game at Bond Brothers Beer in Cary. What pairs better with Canes hockey than local beer and fellow Caniac company? Please consider this your invitation to join us and also invite a friend or two.
Win streak significantly decreases the urgency for Ron Francis
What a difference a week makes. Barely over a week ago, the Hurricanes were mired in a four-game losing streak and had dipped below .500 for the first time this season. Fast forward to today, and the Hurricanes used the last loss overtime to start what is now a five-game points streak. After 16 games, the Hurricanes are now two games above .500 and are tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference if you do standings based on games above .500 to account for differences in games played.
With the team now trending upward, the sense of urgency for General Manager Ron Francis to do something to improve the team team is low. I would go so far as to say that allowing a bit longer to assess the current lineup makes the most sense. But at the same time, Ron Francis’ job is to constantly at least explore options to make his team better and especially for 2017-18 to see if there is anything he can do that improves the team’s playoff prospects without stealing too much from the future.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe attempts to assess the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes thus far from the viewpoint of Ron Francis and with consideration for options to upgrade the team.
The state of the team after 16 games
The recent point streak significantly chances the lens for viewing the team to something more positive, but a few weaknesses do exist.
I think an interesting starting point is to say that the biggest weaknesses right now are pretty much in line with expectations entering the season. Coming off of a 2016-17 season that saw the team finish 21st in scoring and an offseason that did not add a scoring line catalyst, one had to figure that the scoring by committee approach would have some ups and downs and challenges. Worth noting is that the team’s biggest addition at forward, Justin Williams, is scoring at an impressive 67-point pace. I still do not view Williams as being a pure catalyst, but he just does so many little things that improve the chances of scoring. Regardless of any debate about type of player and team needs, Williams has been incredibly productive offensively which is obviously a positive thing.
But even with Williams’ scoring pace and the recent upswing, the team is still 20th in goals right now which is basically the same as 2016-17. And intermittent inability to generate much offensively has been front and center during the few downturns. The Hurricanes have been held to only one goal in regulation in five games and not surprisingly have an 0-3-2 record in those five games.
The goaltending thus far has been up and down but is trending up and has generally been a positive of late.
The blue line is most interesting and maybe most surprising. For as much as the future of the blue line has been hyped in these parts for awhile now, the defense was not a strength out of the gate. In between watching big, mobile defensemen cover large swaths of ice with ease and in a hurry, they just made too many of the glaring mistakes that quickly end up behind the goalie. Part of that was the third pairing when Trevor van Riemsdyk was out for a few games. And another part of that was Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin starting slow at least in terms of defensive acumen. But coinciding with the recent winning run, the blue line has been increasingly better. Only 16 games into his rookie season, Haydn Fleury is taking at least some of the minutes in the top 4, and Noah Hanifin’s game has quieted defensively while rising offensively playing some minutes in the third pairing. And a small bonus was a short and limited two-game appearance by Roland McKeown that suggested he might be ready to provide the depth needed on the right side where left shot Klas Dahlbeck too often looks like a fish out of water.
The most glaring weakness is the power play. Both units are regularly struggling to even get into and set up in the offensive zone. And even when that happens, things just look static in terms of movement and minus enough activity in front of the net. The penalty kill has not suffered as much, but it is also a work in progress with limited work (which is a good thing) because the Hurricanes have taken so few penalties.
Potential needs and upgrades
So again recognizing that the current winning trajectory affords Francis the time and ability to be patient, I think two types of players could boost the Hurricanes right now.
First is a carry over from summer. When one looks at the set of Canes centers, one more catalyst/playmaker could help. Worth noting is that Jordan Staal is producing at a higher level thus far. When I evaluate the Hurricanes other three centers I think that Kruger is a good player but very limited offensively, Victor Rask provides depth scoring but does not really drive offense and Derek Ryan is serviceable but maybe not much as an offensive center. After watching 16 games, I stand by my summer assessment that the need was for more of a scoring line catalyst.
Second is one true power forward who can play at 2017 NHL pace, plays his best without the puck on his stick and goes to the front of the net out of sheer habit, not coach’s orders. Such a player would fit neatly on the power play and could also be a good complement for some of the Hurricanes skill players whose first nature is to play in space not drive into it.
Worth noting is that there is a chance that the Hurricanes have both of these in Charlotte. Lucas Wallmark maybe is not a pure playmaker but could potentially bring more offensively from the center position. Valentin Zykov fits the bill as a net crashing power forward with enough skill to finish.
The most likely path forward
Especially given the complexity and the one step forward, one step back nature of player for player trades, I think the most likely path forward is that Francis continues watch, evaluate and wait as long as the team is pushing forward without creating a deficit in the standings.
Further, I really do not see much opportunity to do a smaller, less expensive deal that helps the team. The Hurricanes are reasonably okay in terms of depth players at both forward and defense. For me, room for potential improvement is really only possible with making a move that inserts a player into the top half of the depth chart.
Shorter version: Best bet is that Francis will continue to be patient.
Trying to add without subtracting
Late November/early December usually marks the unofficial opening of the NHL trade market. Once teams reach the quarter pole for the season, general managers who are not happy with what they built look to make upgrades and/or cut losses on players who are not working out. The challenging part of doing deals in November and/or December is that teams are still playing for the current season such that most trades are player for player not prospects for players. As such, a deal generally requires giving up something from one area of the roster to add something different. Because of this, it can be challenging to make an upgrade without just trading a downgrade in another area.
Specifically for Ron Francis and the Hurricanes, the team’s strength at least in terms of having trade assets is the blue line. But the issue here is that despite being a position of strength trade possibility-wise, the team really does not have a ton of proven depth such that they can just shift players up the depth chart. Fleury stepping into and looking decent so far in a top 4 role is an interesting development in that regard. If Fleury proves top 4 ready on a regular/extended basis, the Hurricanes are suddenly up to having five top 4 defensemen and could theoretically deal from this strength. The challenge is that the team does not have much for NHL-ready depth to refill the bottom pairing. McKeown’s short two-game audition looked promising and Trevor Carrick could potentially be ready after honing his game in the AHL, but the risk is that after solidifying the third pairing for the 2017-18 season, it reverts right back to 2016-17 levels (which were not good) as new players are inserted. The positive right now is having an experienced player in van Riemsdyk to anchor the pairing and support youth next to him.
At forward, the situation is trickier. The Hurricanes have increased depth with Brock McGinn surging offensively right now, Derek Ryan now settled in at the NHL level and depth in the form of Josh Jooris and Marcus Kruger added over the summer. But in terms of pure top 9 forwards, I lean toward saying that the team is still short a player or two offensively.
So what kind of deal could provide an upgrade offensively without being too big of a downgrade elsewhere?
At a basic level, I think the Holy Grail for Francis would be if he could somehow trade from an area where he has duplicates, add a higher-end offensive player and not create a new hole in the process.
So let’s try…
I think the biggest area of duplicates right now is what I would call ‘serviceable top 9 forwards who are average or less offensively.’ Until someone else breaks through, the Hurricanes have Jeff Skinner, probably another player or two who push through the 50-point ceiling (Williams, Staal and Teravainen are on pace right now) and then a stockpile of 35-45-point players. Could a young player with at least medium scoring fetch something of value? I think so.
When I consider the Hurricanes forwards both today and into the future, the player who jumps out to me is Victor Rask. He is an established NHL player despite being only 24 years old. He has NHL size, is sound defensively and has proven capable of providing at least depth scoring. But especially on a team that has Jordan Staal as its top center and could use more of a pure playmaker opposite him, I am not sure Rask is a great fit for the Hurricanes’ needs. Signed for $4 million per year for four more years, he could be a good fit for a team with a pure scoring top line that is willing to sacrifice some offense for two-way acumen in a second or third line.
The blue line is tougher to figure out. I am not sure there is a player who is truly expendable. As noted above, the Hurricanes continue to have a bright future on defense, but week to week it is still uncertain whether the group is has fully arrived or is still a work in progress subject to ups and downs. Also noted above is the fact that the team does not yet have ready depth with NHL experience. Any departure is likely to create a hole that could be difficult to fill from within.
But in the name of making hard choices based on what we have seen in 2017-18, could Justin Faulk be the player to go? At a conceptual level, trading Justin Faulk is really hard to swallow. He is only 25 years old despite being an established top 4 NHL defenseman. He is the harder to find right shot and also heading into 2017-18 was underrated as a back end scorer. In terms of profile, this is not the kind of player that a general manager would want to trade. But I think the on ice reality of Justin Faulk continues to have a significant gap below the conceptual goodness. He too regularly makes errors in terms of positioning and/or stepping up to play the puck and just has not played at a top 4 level defensively on a consistent basis for awhile now. Also worth noting is that Faulk’s actual salary rises to a hefty $6 million for the last two years of his contract.
It would be hard to pull off, but I think what would be interesting is if Francis could net a true offensive catalyst in the form of a top 6 center in return for Faulk and then somehow trade Victor Rask plus something else to get a steady but unspectacular right shot top 4-capable defenseman.
In total, such a series of moves could actually see the Hurricanes improve across the board. Adding an offense-leaning center in place of Rask could provide the offensive boost needed. And replacing Faulk with a simple bread and butter steady top 4 defenseman with less offensive upside could actually help solidify the defense. Trevor van Riemsdyk is power play-capable on the right side and could step into Faulk’s slot there.
Second guessing
I have long voted ‘no’ on including Justin Faulk or any other established by young Hurricanes blue-liner in a deal for a forward. I said no on Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins last summer and also Matt Duchene for months. But with the emergence of Haydn Fleury and the steady play thus far of Trevor van Riemsdyk, I think the depth is such that a series of two deals could maintain the team’s blue line depth while upgrading the offense. Further, the longer Faulk goes without finding an extended stretch strong play without the puck, the more I discount certainty that its return is a certainty. But with scoring so hard to come by in today’s NHL, even the serviceable version of Faulk defensively combined with a return to his high-end scoring ways is a valuable player who is hard to part with. So while I am still torn, I think I am ready to more openly considering offering Justin Faulk in a deal to boost the offense.
As noted above, I believe the most likely near-term path forward is just waiting, and given where the team is right now, I am okay with that course of action possibly combined with spending a little bit of NHL ice time to audition AHL players who have specific skill sets that might fill needs.
What say you Caniacs?
1) Who is in or Bond Brothers on Thursday night?
2) What type of deals, if any, should Ron Francis consider to improve the team now that we have a 16-game read on the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes?
3) Would you consider trading Justin Faulk (or another young defenseman) if such a deal could net a high-end scoring forward?
Go Canes!
1. I’ll be there.
2. If I was GMRF, i’d look at teams that are struggling(Oilers, Yotes, Panthers)to see if they panic and sell low.
3. If we could get a Hall for Larson type trade win, I could live with it. At some point we would have to trade somebody for peanuts to stay under the cap anyways.
I don’t think any of the possible trades make sense. But since you mentioned Holy Grail, I will bite.
When Toronto acquired Marleau, it appeared they were committing to win now (and admitting it would be hard to afford all their young talent). They need D help. So Faulk for Marner. If that happens, Rask is expendable. So he gets traded to Ahanheim for a 2018 first rounder to help the Ducks make it through their injury problems. The Canes then package one of their firsts and a prospect (Gauthier if he still has appeal) in a trade to Arizona, Florida, or Colorado to get into the top 4 in the 2018 draft and pick either Zadina or Wahlstrom.
For me that is the Holy Grail–as Francis always says it makes the team better now and in the future.
I mean I’d totally take Marner or Nylander in that Holy Grail move, but sadly I doubt the leafs would go for it, even with their defensive deficiencies.
For real though, I want Oliver Wahlstrom as a Hurricane real bad
I don’t believe the recent points streak slows GMRF’s urgency. The team has started slow in all four years of his regime, and while we made up some ground since, our power play is bad and we’re only on pace for 92 points (which is good, not great). Individually Faulk and Rask both look lost and expendable with our existing pipeline (rather have McKeown and Wallmark in their spots).
Paraphrasing from yesterday, consistency with the right habits will improve the trajectory and get this team in the playoffs. Small stretches are not enough of a sample size.
We have enough “talent” from within and in fairness we should continue to give our young forwards every chance to succeed with quality minutes. Flip side, this is a young man’s NHL, which means it shouldn’t take talented young forwards 3-4 years to bring good habits consistently (and we all know what those habits are).
Our young defense has grown much quicker than our youthful offense, and usually it’s the other way around. Because of this, I would keep an eye on players like Marner and Huberdeau to really change the offensive dynamic. We have current roster players who are talented yet being leapfrogged, and with a pick or two could be GMRF’s biggest chips.
I’ve pitched the Faulk and Rask a few times before. I think that’s the perfect scenario, if unlikely. The other reason trading Faulk before the deadline is becoming more urgent is if Hanifin continues trending upward he is due for a large raise and then we have a ton of dollars invested in D and trade partners will be able to leverage that against the team.
1. I wish I was near Raleigh or I’d go. Its a little far from Augusta.
2. Francis needs to consider both large and small deals to get the team motivated. There are plenty of teams looking for defenders but a lot are in the conference. Outside of Edmonton, I haven’t heard many western teams clamoring for more defense. Edmonton isn’t a great trade partner.
A swap of Rask with someone would be nice. Maybe with Montreal for Chucky. Chucky centered by Aho could be awesome. Boston is also clamoring for offensive help with their slew of injuries. Move Ryan maybe to them for a hill of beans and bring Wallmark up. Buffalo is who I go hard for a center like ROR. If we are able to get ROR then a trade of Rask for a 1st is very tempting. The class is stacked although both firsts will be in the 12-20 range.
3. Faulk is who I trade. No other defensemen. Give McKeown a tryout if it looks shaky then call the Coyotes about Hjalmarsson.
Tonight is Cool Bars in Greenville – I will be there.
I didn’t read everything about “playing RF” – I don’t generally like to play GM (or even play coach). I will say I had been very resistant to the idea of trading Faulk, but I am probably more open to that concept now. I just don’t want to see us trade for a long-term expensive asset that is going to shut the door for the great talent (Wallmark, Zykov, Saarela, et. al.) we have in the pipeline by either closing off roster spots or eating up salary.
My worry about Walmark Zykov et al is that until they produce at the NHL level there’s a chance they become third line forwards which the team has an abundance of.
The kind of player a team can add for a Faulk wouldn’t exactly close doors for those players anyway when there are Ryans, Mcginns, Stempniaks and Rasks in the top 9. If they can’t push that caliber of player off the roster, they probably aren’t the solution to the current issues at forward.
I am making my comments before reading the other comments. I did not want to be biased. I find myself very much in agreement with what you said matt. I went through the same thought processes myself. I was very unhappy with the Anaheim / Arizona games and I became very trigger happy when that happened.
I know I would fail miserably as a GM. The latest 5 games has mellowed me out a bit. I do not know if trading guys would help or not. There are two clear trades that I think are potential. Faulk always starts slow and he is just not that good defensively. His offense makes up for that but it is missing so far this year. I think Faulk for RNH is the one trade I would consider. I feel McKeown is the right handed D who could replace him. I think he is better defensively and looks to be good offensively. Its a tough call. RNH is the only one I would consider for Faulk.
The other trade is Rask. I would go for Galchenyuk. Either of these trades might get us a guy who could help improve the offense. I am not sure that either one is possible but that would be my potential targets.
I also see begin patient and letting our guys work through it. Anyway this not so good GM would consider those two trades if possible.
If no trade, I have been pushing for Walmark and Zykov for some time.
I have run out of patience with Rod and the PP.
I guess I answered #2.
1) Will be there.
3) Yes, my thoughts above.
After reading the other posts, I can see adding Marner to my list. I do not know enough about Huberdeau to make a call on that. (CT and live_free)
I really like how you framed this discussion: balanced, non-reactive, and unemotional.
1/ I live in CLT … can’t make local events like this, but nevertheless will be enjoying an adult beverage in abstentia.
2/ We have struggled to score in too many games, but I’m not ready to overpay in a trade for more offense. I’d prefer as a first step promoting a prospect or two from CLT to (a) change the team dynamic, (b) increase accountability for underperforming players, and (c) reward hard work and achievement. Wallmark and Zykov sure seem to be earning that look in Raleigh.
I like your idea of trading Faulk and Rask for less D and more O, but pulling off two trades is more than twice as hard as pulling off one. Maybe we could do something like Rask + Carrick/McKeown + future for Trocheck/Barkov?
3/ Of course I’d consider it, but post-trade we would be one injury away from being very thin on defense. Unless it’s a true #1, and I don’t think Galchenyuk or RNH qualify, that to me is not a risk worth taking given how much our identity revolves around preventing teams from scoring.
1) Would love to be there, but it is 250 miles away from AsheVegas.
2) There are 2 types of deals that can be realistically helpful long term (below). The price will be too high for a “real 1C” on a longer contract. Later in the year, trades for rental players could put us over the top for one season will be available, and I think that is a better route.
2A) Trade for a big winger who naturally goes to the net. Someone who can take the beating in front and create chaos. Scoring/Finishing talent is a bonus. Someone else mentioned James Neal in another thread and that sounds great.
2B) On today’s other thread I mentioned trading prospects. Seek high ceiling prospects in need of coaching or change of scenery for our solid bottom 4 forward / bottom pairing D prospects. We have enough depth now that we can take a chance on a few high ceiling guys for the future. This – and the draft – are the cap friendly ways to get potential high end talent.
3) Consider it for sure, but again, a high-end scoring forward who is not a rental will come at a very steep price.
I agree with live_free…, and totally disagree with the “lack of urgency…” by Francis! A couple good games (or at least GOOD RESULTS)…DOES NOT MEAN “this team is FIXED”!! Far from it!
The PP still SUCKS, and there’s other problems, as well.
RF, nor any other GM should EVER think his job is done, and “a sense of urgency” should be the STATUS QUO! Fixing the CURRENT biggest problem IS WHAT RF MUST DO! etc,etc,etc !
Several of the suggestions on trades sound reasonable, and bringing up a player or two seems like a no-brainer, TOO!
I’ve got transportation problems, or I’d be happy to go to BOND BROTHERS tonight! Maybe next time…?
Puckgod, I hear you too! And unfortunately I cannot make it tonight either (seeing that I’m situated in the capital city of New Hampshire) 🙂
Sorry, I missed this one, all. I’m definitely in next time.
Can we all at least agree on this? The dream world, Holy Grail of all things hockey awesomeness in trade scenarios would be GMRF packaging Faulk/Rask/futures to the Islanders for John Tavares? (Contract gamble very willingly accepted)
fogger. I am probably the lone dissenter. I would not enter the Tavares sweepstakes. My guess is it will take $10M and 7 or 8 years to sign John T. The first 2-3 years would be worth it and might even end in raising the Cup. But after that the specter of Spezza, Marleau, Perry and others scares me. The trends show that NHLers peak between 24-27 and then begin to decline. JT will be 28 before next season. So he probably has one 80-point season in the new contract, followed by 70-75 and then by the fourth year of the new contract 65. Don’t get me wrong, that is still strong. But by 2022, it is something between an overpayment and an albatross.
I think you and I agree that the organization is built to start making the playoffs now with the elite team period being 2020-2025. I think entering the Tavares sweepstakes might change that dynamic. Plus by 2020 I think Aho or Necas will be as good a 1C as JT. I know that sounds crazy but the same would have been said about preferring Scheifele to Perry three years ago. Now who would you rather have? And Scheifele is cheaper.