Recent history has seen a number of players fairly high on the Hurricanes depth chart mostly fall after leaving the team. Players like Jiri Tlusty, Jay Harrison, Nathan Gerbe and others had played their way up to the middle of the Hurricanes lineup but then found themselves out of the NHL a couple years after leaving Raleigh.
But more recently, Eric Staal rebounded strongly in Minnesota, and Riley Nash (now in Columbus) carved out a nice role in Boston.
The 2018-19 season will be an interesting one in the sense that it will offer a number of opportunities to see how potentially higher-end players perform with a change of scenery and out of a Hurricanes uniform.
Cam Ward
After many years as the #1 goalie for the Hurricanes and many years of sub-par statistics, Ward will play his first NHL in another uniform when steps onto the ice for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now 34 years old and in the twilight of his career, the 2018-19 season will not say much about Ward’s prime years, but it will still be interesting to see if he bounces up like Staal did.
Jeff Skinner
In a Hurricanes uniform, Jeff Skinner fared well in terms of scoring but never really put things together on the defensive side of the puck. He scored but never really hit an elite level in terms of total point production. Was that because of his line mates and the team? Or was that simply an accurate measure of Skinner as a player. Playing in a contract year and possibly alongside Jack Eichel, I think Skinner represents the most intriguing transfer out. For me, I do not see either end of the spectrum as being out of play. Is Jeff Skinner capable of elite scoring and improved defensive play, and just needing a line mate like Eichel to get there? Or if Jeff Skinner just destined to be up and down defensively with good but not elite point production?
Elias Lindholm
There is a good case to be made that Lindholm’s development was stunted by the Hurricanes rushing him to the NHL level. After working his way up to be a good middle six type forward, does he still have a higher gear offensively? Or is he just maxed out as a good but not great complementary player? Especially if he plays his way up to a line with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, Lindholm will have a prime opportunity to show if he can do more.
Noah Hanifin
Somewhat similar to Lindholm, Noah Hanifin is a player with an incredibly high ceiling and draft pedigree. But also like Lindholm, Hanifin has yet to establish himself as a top 4 defenseman. Is Hanifin a player who is ready to put it all together and rise to a higher level? Or is he just what he has shown thus far and therefore destined to leave teams wanting more?
Derek Ryan
Cinderella story Derek Ryan played his way up to regular status for the 2017-18 season. The positive on Ryan is that he provided reasonably good depth scoring. The downside is that he did not do more than that, nor did he ever really mesh with Jeff Skinner. Like Hanifin and Lindholm, Ryan followed Bill Peters to Calgary. Does Ryan have a higher gear production-wise?
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these players is likely to most benefit from a change of scenery, play better than he did in a Hurricanes uniform and make the Hurricanes regret their departure?
2) Which of these players will perform either similarly or worse with their departure?
Go Canes!
1) Ward and Lindholm.
The meme “Carolina would have made the playoffs with average goaltending” is the definition of superficial. Ward’s struggles have been program and not player. Don’t believe me–go to this site http://morehockeystats.com/players/face2face/goalie_skater/goals_ratio/filter=
and play with the tool.
For goalies facing more than 50 shots, Ward has the second best save % against Stamkos; has the best save % against Ovechkin; Ward is second only to Bobrovsky against Crosby; he doesn’t fare as well against Malkin and Tavares. I don’t think it is just luck that he is one of the best against the three best goal scorers of the past decade. I think it indicates two things: 1–When the top D pairing is on the ice Ward is better than most goalies; 2–He is excellent against shooters, but was often left without support against players who score in close (Tavares, Malkin).
I fully expect Cam Ward to be league average or better (I presume everyone is talking only about save %) in Chicago.
2) Ryan and Skinner. At least statistically, Derek Ryan won’t do much more than he did for the Canes. Skinner will likely have a year between 16-17 and 17-18. I am not in the group that believes he hits 40 goals playing with Eichel. My guess is around 30.
1) Lindholm. Too often he has been expected to carry a line or be the scorer on it. If he gets opportunity as a complementary piece it will open up ice and opportunity for him.
2) Ward. While he often makes the difficult flashy save, he gives up way too many bonehead short side goals. A Raleigh restaurant named a sandwich “high glove side” for a reason. Just wait him out a half second and go high.
In 05-06, backstopping a Stanley Cup winning team, his save percentage was .888. While he did have slightly better statistics in other years the only thing elite about Ward was his paycheck. Sorry if that is harsh.
1- Lindholm – losing him was the most painful part of the offseason for me. We didn’t seen it consistently, but that higher-gear he found from Dec-Apr of the ’16-17 season was exactly what we need in this team this year – tough to play against, top-6 scoring, defensively responsible. He’s an excellent player when he finds that again.
2- I think we all know what Skinner is. BUF gave up a reasonable pile of futures for a one-year trial, but I’m not sure he’s any better with different teammates and possibly worse if he starts pressing. This zebra won’t change his stripes.
I think Ward will have a strong year as a back up. I think Lindholm and Ryan will be a similar players as they were in Carolina. Especially considering they’re playing for the same coach.
I’m really not sure on Skinner or Hanifin. If I had to bet: Hanifin struggles a little this year with a new team and possibly harder defensive assignments. Skinner has a lot to prove in a contract year in his prime. I have a feeling he’ll have something like a 35 goal year.
1. Skinner. Contract year, elite line mates (probably), he will have a 35 or 40-goal season.
I would say Lindholm, but he is going to play for the same coach, probably implementing a similar system, so I am not sure if any of the trio are going to play much differently.
2. Ward, I think he will not perform much different from how he played in a Canes uniform, which is decent for a backup goalie.
1. Ward. Playing part time agrees with Ward. It’s when he starts game after game that the bad goals seem to start. Perfect fit in Chicago. If Crawford goes down again and Ward has to start for more than a few weeks he will regress. Skinner…with a catch. Skinner and Eichel may pop for a ton of goals this year, but they will still finish last in the league. Eichel doesn’t play D either. While Skinner’s points may look good, he may still be -25.
Ryan, Lindholm, and Hanifin will be much the same. Ryan is a solid third line centerman. Good on draws and smart. Finds himself overwhelmed in a very fast game or against large opponents. Lindholm and Hanifin are back in Purgatory with a coach they don’t like. Lindholm played like a robot last season and I don’t see it changing. Hanifin shows little hockey smarts, but looks good skating the puck. No big loss on either, IMO.
This is a serious question—not just trying to be argumentative. For those who think Ward is a player issue and not a system issue, I have two questions: 1) How is it that Khudobin, Lack, and Darling all performed dramatically different? 2) Is it randomness that Ward is the best goalie in the league against Ovechkin and second best against Stamkos and Crosby? When Matt posted today’s question I was thinking Lindholm for sure as a player who would flourish. I have said before that I think Ward is average—so I was going to say he would be average as a backup. But I can honestly say those three goal scorers were the first three I entered into the tool. Then I tried to test what the data were saying and thought about Malkin as a great second line scorer and Tavares as a great goal-front scorer.
I wasn’t expecting Ward to be way above league average against the very best. However that is what the numbers indicate. I would argue Ovie, Crosby, Stamkos are all good enough to target the short side or glove hand high. So again a serious question—what am I missing?
What I believe you are missing is how the Canes top defensive line is pretty damn good. Also, if Ward is so good against the league’s top players he must be pretty bad against the rest. Honestly, I don’t see, or maybe understand, the value in those statistics.
On the other hand, Clear Sight Analytics had Ward in it’s bottom 5 in their adjusted save percentage rankings nearly all year. Cary Price took Ward’s spot in the end. They measure save percentages by types of shots using location, screening, did the puck cross the center of the ice, etc. They then take averages using every shot in the league and every goaltender in the league. Darling was the worst all season. Ward was bad too. The stats and eye test convict Ward, IMO. He has been able to shine in short periods of time, but a decade of a regular save percentage below .910 kind of tells the story.
Check it out. Expected Save Percentage vs. Actual Save percentage.
https://www.csahockey.com/goaltender-save-percentage
You can see Darling’s expected save percentage was below .900, which is damning of the Canes D giving up high percentage shots. Wish Ward was still up there, but he was there in the bottom 5 most of the season.
1. Cam Ward: ctcaniac with his rose colored glasses on has made the case for Cam citing numerous one-on-one stats to support his position. An expected appraisal, but I am going to go along with him for different reasons. Cam will pick up his game with a reasonable workload assuming Crawford resumes his number 1 role. Cam will also be the benefactor from better coaching (Quenneville) and will not be overworked as he was with the Canes. Lastly, Cam has pride and he will be wanting to show us we made a mistake.
2. Skinner: I’m all over the place with him. I think he will reproduce the same results he had last year with the Canes.
3. Lindholm: Read dmilleravid above. He expresses my feelings perfectly. We lost a very good all around player here. We got a good return, but that doesn’t change the fact that Lindholm and what he provides as a player won’t be missed.
4. Hanifin: He just looked too tentative for me last season. He had spurts of good play, but never looked like a world beater to me. IMO Calgary will be sorry on defense this year (give up a lot of goals) and he will be part of the reason.
5. Ryan: Will be the same as he was with the Canes. His faceoffs and reasonable scoring will be appreciated, but he will get eaten up on the defensive side of the puck in the West.
Lindholm: change “won’t” to “will”
First – we won’t miss any of them with the freshly formulated team making the playoffs. “Elias who???”. 🙂
The player I think will perform significantly better than previous years with the Canes is…none of the above. I actually think Nordstrom stands the best chance of significant “improvement”. Granted the bar is low and he won’t reach a level that he will be missed at. But he didn’t play for the Swedish national team for no good reason two summers ago. He was very limited by his role with this team and the limited offensive skill of his 4th line centers (except when Rask was in that role). I expect people here will ask, “is that the same Nordy??”.
I expect Ward will have a stellar season – in part for what ct writes (Cam can be elite and be elite over stretches of every season) and part because of breezy’s comments (pride, reduced workload). Throw in better play in the defensive zone and he will not be overly challenged as he frequently was here.
As for the “Calgary Three”:
Ryan will show incremental improvement – but only because his trajectory remains up. He has been improving every year and he will be playing a similar role. He is reaching his ceiling and age will start to catch up with him
I really don’t see how Lindholm and Hanifin get that much better in Calgary under the same coach – except for the fresh start factor. Lindy is being paid more for potential. If Peters is speaking of him as a center, why wasn’t he seeing much center time with the Canes? I like Lindy (I have his jersey) but I don’t see him as getting much better than he was here. Giving Hanifin a “Hainsey-like” partner is the key to him stepping up his game -= does he get that in Calgary? I see the fresh start as being important for him, but I don’t see where playing for the same coach gives either Lindy or Hanifin the proper fresh start they need to really excel going forward.
As for Skinner – better than 2017-18 but not as good as 2016-17. He also gets the fresh start, is playing a contract year, and will be close to family/friends. He will also have a very supportive fan base plus the first truly gifted offensive-minded centers. That said, I can hardly wait for the personality clash between Skinner and Eichel.
Finally – I am casually interested in seeing how Kruger does now that he is healthy and back in Chicago.
Haha about Skinner/Eichel. I thought about that. Not sure ‘ol Jack will be happy when he never gets the puck in the offensive zone.
I have a mea culpa. I missed that both Ovechkin and Crosby had a second page of data.
So Ward is near the 70 percentile of goalies facing Ovie and 80 percentile facing Crosby. My error. It means my argument is slightly weakened. Still Cam Ward has been better than average against three of the best.
Hi CT, your question is still a fair one. I believe there are both system and player issues with Ward. Given that your question is about player issues, my answer focuses on that.
From the eyeball test (not data) Ward is at his best against players with a quick release. Top scorers tend to have a quick release. His instincts in lurching for the quick release shots are very good.
Ironically, it is when players wait him out that he is terrible. After his lurch for the likely placement of the quick release, he often leaves the near side open (a goalie sin) and/or falls forward opening up the whole top half of the net.
A top performance against top shooters and poor performance against everyone else works against him, because there is a lot more of everyone else.
That said, a tighter defense may take away some time from shooters, and a good goalie coach may be able to pin him to the near post until after the shot. It is possible, but I give it a low probability since he has been doing the exact same thing for the last 12 years.
Matt, player or program is an excellent question but there is also the more specific question about linemates and pairings. Raleightj makes a great point about Joakim Nordstrom. He scored 10 goals for the Canes in 2015-16 and 7 goals in 2016-17. Last season, it looked as though he couldn’t score a goal to save his life. I’m not sure how Nordstrom’s linemates in Boston will compare to those he had with the Canes in 2015-16 but it couldn’t be worse from a scoring perspective than the linemates Nordstrom had in 2017-18.
Skinner is another illustration of the importance of linemates. Does every forward have to become an identical responsible two-way player to earn his keep? Jeff Skinner was +3 in 2010-11, not -27. Was the difference in Skinner, the coach or the linemates? I don’t know but I do have the impression some coaches are better than others at using players’ strengths and covering up their weaknesses. Skinner looked a lot better with Jokinen and Ruutu than more recent combinations. Ruutu crashed the net and Jokinen could score goals and set up teammates. I guess they and Skinner’s linemates in 2010-11 somehow offset Skinner’s weaknesses. Unfortunately, no combination tried in recent years has been able to do that.
I doubt Buffalo can put together lines that make Skinner a + player, but I think he’ll score 35 goals or more. I expect Ryan to be about the same in Calgary. Lessthanstable and raleightj have described Ryan perfectly, strengths and weaknesses. For Lindholm, I think it depends whether he’s on the first line, where he would flourish. Otherwise, I’ve got my doubts.
Hanifin is a mystery to me. He’s got good size, he’s a great skater and his skills on offense are good and getting better. He looks as though he should be really, really good. And yet he’s not. He seems to have breakdowns all by himself on his side of the ice in a way that the other D can’t recover from. Hanifin would probably look best in front of a stellar goalie. He might get that in Calgary. Hanifin won’t strengthen the Flames’ defense. Hamilton will make the Canes a lot better. (The merits of Ferland and the rights to Fox vs. Lindholm with his big new contract are another question.)
If I had to bet on it, I’d put my money on Hanafin playing the best out of this group! He has all the tools, and the trade should be a wake-up call. I don’t know what the defense structure, or who the D-coach is, but it seems like he should have the impetus to take his game to a higher level!
I don’t think Skins will change, so Buffalo…I wish you luck-when you don’t play us!
Ward is a damn fine person, but it took Darling to make him look good…SORTA, and the only way I can see our goalie situation improving is with Ned, or Booth, or Helvig…HELP, HELP…
1) It is hard to predict futures for player who have a new beginning. Their line mates and coaches will impact how they do.
My guess is Skinner is the one we will regret trading. Cam Ward has been pretty consistent in being a bit under average. With better D in front and fewer games, maybe he gets a little better. Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin and Derek Ryan, new location but same coach and same system. Ryan may get a few more goals as he has been improving but he always got beat by the bigger players. I do not see that changing. Jeff Skinner, last year was his worst in a while. I think he will get more goals but will still probably be a +/- negative player. It will be interesting to see how he shares the puck if he gets on the first line. For the comments on Nordstrom, there wasn’t anyplace to go but up. He either does better or his career is done.
2) I see most of the players as similar. Skinner is the one who will improve the most as he did not have a good season last year, yet was still on of our best scorers.
I will put it down for posterity.
Cam Ward ends 18-19 with .912 save % or better and a winning record.
Lindholm scores 58 points or more. Of course, I would have said that had he stayed in Raleigh. Once the Canes acquired 2OA I thought Lindholm was the best option to center Svech and his production would be 60 points minimum.
Well said.
I hope for Cam Ward’s sake that you are correct, however I will bet one craft beverage of choice that Ward finishes below .912.
It would be just as enjoyable to pay as collect.