To push up into the playoff chase either this year or next, the Hurricanes will need to be better than what they have been in recent years and what they have been through nearly half of the 2018-19 season.
Part of that will likely need to come in the form of adding a player or two to bolster the offense. But part of that will also need to come from the current players becoming better.
Right now, the Hurricanes have a number of young players who are capable at the NHL level but with ceilings that are much higher if they can continue to develop despite being established at the NHL level.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe picks out a couple young leaders for the next generation of Canes hockey and identifies next steps in their development.
Sebastian Aho
Aho posted 65 points during the 2017-18 season. Right now, he is on pace for 84 points during the 2018-19 season. If he hits that level and simply maintains it, he will be a legitimate first line center and a huge plus in terms of building a winning hockey team. To be clear, that would be enough. But at the same time, there is one more level with two components possible for Aho’s development as a 21-year old still with upside. First, the truly elite NHL scorers right now push up to a 100-point pace. The gap is not huge, but there is a bit more for Aho to reach that level. And related, ideal would be if he could translate his offensive ability into being a power play catalyst. It is no secret that the Canes power play has struggled through most of this season. Aho’s ten points on the power play lead the team, but I still think there is another level for him to do more as a puck distributor who generates more scoring chances for his unit. Again, the current version of Sebastian Aho is more than good enough, but if he can take one more step up offensively, he puts him self in the top group of offensive players in the entire league.
Jaccob Slavin
After some ups and downs with the forced pairing with Dougie Hamilton, Slavin seems to be settling back into his normal role alongside Brett Pesce. I go back and forth on whether his ice time is best used on the penalty kill, but when he is playing well, he is top-tier defensively at even strength. But his offensive game has not developed to the same level yet. Even with a regular helping of power play ice time, Slavin has only 13 points with only three of those coming on the power play. In a league where top defensemen are almost always great offensively in addition to being sound defensively, Slavin still has room to grow in this regard. This season, he has shown a newfound knack for getting his head up early and finding/making stretch passes out of the defensive zone. That is one significant step forward offensively. He has also shown a greater knack for finding and exploiting seams and carrying the puck from end to end. Power play aside, I think the next possible level for Slavin offensively is if he can learn to convert his gallops up the ice and the back-peddling defense in front of him into more scoring chances. Elite offensive defensemen like Erik Karlsson have speed which exploits openings, but the other subtle but critical ability is understanding how to generate passing lanes and scoring chances off the rush. The next step is not just gaining the offensive blue line but rather doing so and then immediately converting that into an offensive chance while the defense is still retreating. Slavin has the skating ability to do so and has also demonstrated a growing ability to assess the entire rink past simple first-level passes. If he can meld the two of those, the volume of chances he will create off the rush will grow significantly, and his point total could go from 25-30 to potentially double that.
Andrei Svechnikov
As the nearly consensus top forward in the 2018 NHL Draft, Andrei Svechnikov was labeled as a can’t miss. Most figured it was just a matter of time until he was a 30 goal scorer at the NHL level. Out of the gate as an 18-year old in his rookie season in the NHL, Svechnikov offered glimpses of what made him the #2 overall pick in the draft, but he did not hit the ground sprinting. But more recently Svechnikov has stuck a few sniper-variety goals into the back of the net. And he continues to also go to the front of the net which is obviously a great place to score goals. The question is how quickly Svechnikov can put things together. To be a true difference-maker, he will need to push up above his current 40-45-point pace and push up to a higher pace scoring-wise. As noted above, his receive/shoot scoring seems to be advancing suddenly. More a work in progress are his ability to finish around the net and his ability to come up with a couple moves that consistently beat NHL goalies off the rush. As we near the midway point of the 2018-19 season, I will be watching for next steps in these other scoring areas for Svechnikov to see if he can very quickly adapt and play his way up into the top tier of NHL goal scorers.
I chose these three players intentionally because I think they have the greatest potential to play up to a higher level personally and boost the entire team in doing so.
What say you Canes fans?
1) If you were to add 1-2 more players to a short list of young players with significant upside that could help push the Canes up into the playoffs, who would they be and what do you see as their ‘next steps’?
2) Of Aho, Slavin and Svechnikov, which player do you think will realize the next step up offensively first?
Go Canes!
1) I would add Wallmark. He can be a 50-point #2/3 C. For the remainder of the year, I think Aho/Wallmark/Staal/Bishop are decent options at C. Wallmark has a trajectory similar to Valtteri Filppula, who had success in AHL but only put up 17 points in his first full NHL season. Thereafter, Filppula could be counted on for 15-20 goals and 30-35 assists while being good defensively. My guess is that Wallmark ends this season around 30 points, but I think 40 is possible. If centering Svechnikov and another 20-goal scorer, I think Wallmark can be a 15-goal, 40-assist center starting next season.
2) Svechnikov. I think he is already crossing the threshold to the next level. I expect he scores at a 35-goal pace the second half of the season (so ends up with something like 28 goals).
I also think Aho might end up with between 85-90, so not quite the 100 points mentioned, but close.
1. I dont think he 1-2 players needed to legitimately push for the playoffs are on the current roster.
They still lack high end offensive talent. They are shooting at an even worse rate than last year. (Worst 5v5 sh% in the last ten years.)
Even last year’s terrible sh% would have the team on pace for roughly 94 points.
I think help is going to have to come from this year’s draft, a trade or a FA signing. Hopefully all three. Charlotte has some nice pieces as well that will need to step up soon.
2. Svechnikov. Seeing him in the top 6 finally has been awesome and I expect his offense to continue to blossom.
1. I concur with ct about Wallmark. He is learning how to shoot past NHL goalies. I do think his offensive upside is currently limited by his linemates and the shutdown role RBA has him slotted into.
Also, dare I say Turbo? He has to learn that not just is it okay, but it is better than okay for him to shoot the puck and not try to make plays by passing.
Finally…believe it or not…Bishop. He showed his offensive acumen on the Svech goal on Monday with a beautifully delivered tape-to-tape pass on the rush. Again he will be limited by his linemates and his assigned role.
2. Svech – and I already think he has. You mention his season-averaged 40-45 ppg – I mention his 40+ goals rate over the past 10 games. While I no longer think he will catch Petterson for rookie goals or the Calder, he may well surpass Aho as team-best goal scorer by the end of the season.
Putting Svetch on the same line with Fishy and Turbo is not a good idea. Other teams are onto all of that three. They can focus on slowing down and stopping one line.
Putting Svetch on a line with Bishop and Ginner, and returning Ferland to Fishy and Turbo forces other teams to spread out their resources to defend against two scoring lines. Ferland can disrupt the enemy, thus protecting the tiny Finns while scoring. Ginner and Bishop can disrupt the enemy while making plays to let Svetch do his thing.
Gauthier with Wallmark and Martinook would be a dangerous combination.
I am not in favor of a major trade. I don’t see how we can win in a trade. Are we going to trade to obtain an undersized fast soft scorer? We already have plenty of them (Aho, Turbo, Saarella, Necas).
I would find it interesting to see what Stan Bowman wants for Saad or Anisimov. Even more interesting, what would the Flyers want for Wayne Simmonds or Claude Giroux?
A few points related to what others have stated.
I agree that Teravainen can increase to 70-75 points. Though I think it is likely it will be something like 22 goals and 50 assists. I have said it before, despite significant difference in size and style of play, TT is the Canes’ Blake Wheeler. He is going to drive offense by passing the puck. This is evident in his statistics from as far back as juniors. One year he dominated the WJC-20. He had 2 goals and 13 assists (many to Maenalanen). Should Aho become a 40-goal score and/or should the power play become efficient, I am sure TT will be the one making the precision passes.
I am skeptical like pwrlss about the Canes making a good trade. But as ericiversen correctly states at least one more forward is needed. If Carolina could get a decent return for Faulk or Hamilton, then all the lines will make sense as soon as next year. For entertainment purposes only, let’s say the Canes trade Hamilton for Saad. The lineups could be the following to start next season:
Saad/Aho/TT
Svechnikov/Wallmark/Necas
Martinook/Staal/Roy
Foegele/Bishop/McGinn
With Svechnikov 19 and Necas 20, the second-scoring line would still be a year away, but it would be fun and often dangerous.
Staal’s line might score some, but would finally be aligned with both Jordans’ strength to disrupt. The fourth line would be fast and energetic–and has three players who can still get hot for 3-5 game stretches.
Or the Canes get even luckier with the lottery and draft Jack Hughes.