We are clearly moving quickly into the slow part of summer, but Ron Francis was generous enough to offer another big news day on Wednesday when he inked blue line leader Jaccob Slavin to a 7-year contract for $5.3 million per year.
I offered my ‘initial thoughts’ on Jaccob Slavin’s new deal shortly after the transaction was announced on Wednesday.
Thursday we followed up on Jaccob Slavin’s deal and considered the pros, cons and possibilities of re-signing other players this summer before their contracts expire next summer. My Thursday Daily Cup of Joe has my thoughts on other early re-signing candidates, and the Thursday Coffee Shop offers a bunch of other great opinions.
For a fun Friday exercise, today’s Daily Cup of Joe will take the current roster (realizing it could still change) and an early look at predictions, odds and such for the 2017-18 season.
Top Canes scorer debate for 2017-18
Jeff Skinner: As a veteran and both the 2015-16 and 2016-17 point leader, Jeff Skinner enters the 2017-18 campaign as the odds on favorite to again lead the team in scoring. He is easily the best bet.
But looking at the dark horses is probably more interesting.
Sebastian Aho: He started slow at least in terms of goal scoring but then surged once he got going. His 49 points as a rookie were second only to Skinner’s 63 points, and his ceiling is much higher. If I had to pick someone other than Skinner to lead the team in scoring, Aho would be my first choice.
Justin Faulk: Having a defenseman lead the team seems unlikely and is generally a sign of scoring problems, but that might not necessarily be the case with Faulk. He had a huge year on the power play in 2015-16. Then he followed it up with a huge year at even strength in 2016-17. If he put both together and stayed healthy, is 60 points and team leadership possible? Just maybe.
The field: The Hurricanes have a few other players whose potential is high. Both Teuvo Teravainen and Elias Lindholm were drafted with higher-end scoring potential. Both have shown spurts of promise. But neither has really fired consistently on all cylinders. If one or both did, it is hard to say where their scoring ceiling is, but it is certainly higher than what they have done thus far in their NHL careers.
Odds of winning league-wide individual awards
In a smaller market and after seven consecutive non-playoff seasons, Hurricanes players maybe not surprisingly do not receive much consideration for winning the major individual hardware.
Despite finishing in sixth place in 2016-17 with 37 goals, I doubt anyone is mentioning Skinner when talking about the 2017-18 Richard Trophy for most goals scored during the season. But is he really more of a long shot than anyone else not named Crosby, McDavid or Ovechkin?
And despite being a tremendous defensive defenseman with untapped offensive potential, I doubt anyone will include Jaccob Slavin in preseason Norris Trophy conversations.
The team’s record and chances of making the playoffs
The biggest question in terms of projecting the Carolina Hurricanes 2017-18 season is what the team’s record will be and whether it will be good enough to make the 2017-18 playoffs. On the one hand, the Hurricanes have improved with the addition of Scott Darling, Justin Williams and depth players. On the other hand, the team is likely in the best division in the NHL.
Interestingly, the early odds making from the betting world does not think too highly of the Hurricanes prospects for the 2017-18 season. One early odds chart has the Hurricanes tied for 20th most likely to win the 2018 Stanley Cup which lines up reasonably well with the 2016-17 results. But in contrast, the same article paints a negative downside with Bill Peters having the second highest probability of being the first NHL bench boss fired in 2017-18.
Other odds makers generally agree with the middling projections for the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes.
Personally, I put the Hurricanes firmly in the large pack of teams that are good enough to make the playoffs but easily also capable of missing the playoffs. And that is what makes the hockey season both unpredictable and at least mostly fun.
What say you Canes fans?
Who do you see leading the team in scoring?
If you had to pick one Hurricanes player to shock the world and win league-wide hardware in 2017-18, who would it be?
What do you see as a fair over/under for total standings points in 2017-18, and do you think the team will beat that number?
Go Canes!
I actually think Aho and Lindholm are equally likely to lead in scoring. Unless Skinner gets 35+ goals again, his history suggests he won’t make it to 60 points, because he just doesn’t register assists. Both Aho and Lindholm have the potential to reach 40-45 assists. I have said before that I think Aho might have 70 points in him in the next two seasons (which is good news/ bad news in that it would mean his cost when he is RFA will be $6M or more). Lindholm had a great 2nd half and if can do it for 82 games plus pick up a few more goals, he should hit 60-65 points.
My one pick for hardware would be Darling. If he plays 52-55 games and reproduces his numbers from last season he is serious contender for Vezina. Darkest of dark-horses would be Fleury. The rookie crop doesn’t appear to have any scoring wunderkinds. There is a chance that Fleury plays 82 games, puts up impressive +/- and has low PIM. If no rookie puts up 25g or 50 pts. that just might get some attention.
Fair is 93. I am fairly confident the Canes get to 95, and actually predict 97 (43-28-11).
Skinner will lead by a large amount. I see him approaching 50 goals!
Highly unlikely anyone will compete for HARDWARE, but Darling could make me very happy if he is top 10 either in save pctg, or win pctg.
Even though the centers on this team are uninspiring, when we talk scoring… I’ll go out on a limb and say Canes sneak into the playoffs with 97 pts.
This miracle can only happen if a few guys stand on their heads…
OR RF makes a big deal for a DIFFERENCE-MAKER!!
While I believe Aho WILL lead the team in scoring someday (I see his ceiling around 80 in the future, though like ctcaniac, I’d be thrilled with 70).
As for league awards, Darling is the dark horse, but I’d say the most likely candidate is Jordan Staal winning the Selke. Granted Brent Burns is cheating as a defenseman who plays forward, but Staal is a top 5 defensive forward and if Carolina does get back to relevance this year, I’ll imagine he’d be the likely candidate for increased attention, as he’s the lynchpin of our new identity.
The over/under i put at 95. puckgod, I’d show you stats that prove that you don’t need elite scoring to make the playoffs (it’s quite common), but I’m pretty sure that still wouldn’t convince you. But that’s good, we need some skeptics to keep our heads level 😉 If Darling proves to be a capable starter than this team has the potential to be better than Columbus was last year (because SHOCKER we have more scoring depth than they do)
Difference maker: Sebastian freaking Aho
Completely agree if anyone is to win an award it will probably be Staal for the Selke, I think he’d have gotten consideration in the previous two seasons if the team overall performed better. My dark horse candidate is Slavin winning the lady byng even though, the last Defensemen to win it was Brian Campbell in 2011-2012 and then apparently Red Kelly in 1953-1954.
Cory, a little skepticism is healthy (maybe I’m REAL healthy), but I really believe our scoring is sub-par! I DO THINK our defense is better than average, and if the goaltenders can collectively get the job done…we have a great chance to win some games.
It would be nice if we could score a bunch more, though, eh?
Puckgod….. I’m confused…..if you think our scoring is lacking, yet you think Skinner could approach 50 goals…..only 4 players have done that since 2010. Wouldn’t a 50 goal Skinner mean our scoring is in the top quartile of the league?
No, who’s going to score more than 20 besides Skins?
Aho had 23 last year…
I agree with all of Cory’s points. I think Aho leads us in scoring and that Staal is the most likely to win hardware. Also agree that the over/under is 95 points based on our point total from last year and the fact that analysis shows we likely added 4 wins with RF’s moves so far this off-season.
I continue to believe we have the difference makers we all crave in our system right now. We become Cup contenders sooner if we get new ownership willing to spend some money. But if not, we will have the pieces to get there by trade in the next couple of years. I’m perfectly fine getting some playoff experience as a 7 or 8 seed for 1-2 years while we develop a cup contending team
Why not Haydn Fleury? Out of the major awards, I’d bet on rookie of the year. This year’s rookie crop looks lighter than normal years regarding impact offensive dynamos. Although it’s harder for rookie defensemen to win this trophy, just maybe this is the year…
Great to see all of the love for Jordan Staal.
I have always thought that both the Norris and Selke were odd awards because it a takes a strong offensive season to win both even though they are theoretically defensive awards.
I agree with those that see a high scoring ceiling for Aho, but I think it likely takes a few years partly just due to maturation but also because the Canes just do not have really have the pieces to build the pure scoring line it takes to put up 80 points in today’s NHL.
I have to go with Jeff Skinner as the most likely to lead the team in points. I think I agree with Matt that a darkhorse could actually be Justin Faulk! There are many games where I believe Justin Faulk is the most dangerous offensive player on the ice for the Canes (fortunately and unfortunately usually).
No Canes will win hardware. However, two will receive votes for hardware like they did this year. Slavin for Norris, and Staal for Selke.
The most serious question – the playoff odds. Let’s see where we rank against these Metropolitan teams:
Washington – while I see them regressing, their regression still puts them well ahead of the Canes in points.
Pittsburgh – … no question they remain ahead of us.
Columbus – I could see them taking a slight step back, but they are a young squad too that could step forward as well. I doubt many would disagree their group is ahead of us.
NY Rangers – Potential regression? Yet they had a great offseason swapping Girardi for Shattenkirk. Hard to see the Canes surpassing the ALWAYS consistent Rangers (with one of the leagues best coaches to boot).
— there are already 4 teams I am fairly confident the Canes have not surpassed. So this puts as a wild card contender. And i’m not even finished with Metro teams.
Philly – A team with a young blossoming D corps just like us, they have more firepower up front plus added Nolan Patrick in the draft. They could have a similar point total to the Canes next year.
This is where I realistically see the Canes (ranked 6th in the Metro, missing the playoffs)
NJ devils – They have definitely improved a lot this offseason as well. Not going to give away as many easy points to anyone in the division.
NY Islanders – I kinda think they are a tire fire. But they have Tavares who could beat us on his own maybe… 😛
Atlantic Division top 4/5 in no order (Bruins, Sens, Habs, Leafs, Lightning)
Therefore I see the Canes competing for a wild card spot, and I want to make it so clear to everyone posting here that I don’t doubt the current Canes team is of a high enough quality to make the playoffs, my opinion is based from the perspective that this is a league of competition, and while the Hurricanes have improved compared to the Hurricanes of 2016-17, they in my opinion have not caught up to their competition that remains in front of them.
17-18 Canes > 16-17 Canes 100% in my opinion (skill-wise definitely, points in standings maybe).
17-18 Canes > 4 other Metro teams, and 2 other WC spots in our conference? That argument I am certainly not convinced of.
fifty. One thing I think we all forget from time to time is that Carolina was significantly better after the trade deadline. I am not going to look at all the records, but probably top 4 in Metro. So it makes more sense to compare the opening day 17-18 roster with the March 2017 team. While most folks liked Hainsey and Stalberg, the team improved when they left. That improvement with the addition of Darling, Williams, and Kruger means the 4th best Metropolitan team probably moved up to 3rd best.
The two things that kept the 16-17 team (without any changes) out of the playoffs were the poor start and Ward hitting a wall after playing something like 23 consecutive games.
With the additions plus the team that was on the ice in March 17, the Canes are solidly a wild card.
ct – you stated “The two things that kept the 16-17 team (without any changes) out of the playoffs were..” and then you were wrong. The poor start had nothing – nothing! – to do with the sorry-ass play of the team from mid-January to late-February. And Ward’s fatigue had nothing to do with the 7-1 and 5-1 scores that 6-week stretch of godawful hockey contained. Don’t put the burden on either of the wrong donkeys. Over 6 weeks the team collapsed. That is why the 16-17 team did not make the playoffs.
1) Skinner leads in goals; Lindholm leads in points (he regains his goal-scoring touch and he continues his awesome assist productivity).
2) None of the above – although Slavin is a much better D-man than Burns, Darling should rock it, and JStaal is the best possession/defense center in the league).
3) 97. The Canes hit it. We are in the playoffs.
tj. We agree on 97 points for 17-18. And I see your point that those 6 weeks killed the season.
As far as 2), if the criteria is “better D-man” based primarily on defense, then Pesce is the Canes’ choice.
The Canes went 11-6-6 after the TDL. Not bad, but not great either. That’s 28 out of a possible 46 points. Had they played at this pace all season they probably would have squeaked into the playoffs, but they would have had to have won 6 or 7 of their last 13 games. But this is all conjecture….
You guys are leaving out one Justin Williams who could very much surprise as a scoring leader. Teravainen and Rask will be in the mix with Skinner, Aho, and Lindhom in my opinion. I think Faulk could put up 50 points if he stays healthy. But I also think there’s a chance this team has 5 guys who pot 20 or more goals. While the odds would be in Skinner’s favor, there are some other youngsters who will have a say so in that. If I’d have to pick a wild card, I’d say Teravainen might be the surprise contributor.
If we assume that a couple of the teams in the Metro got a little worse and none of last year’s playoff teams from the Atlantic got dramatically better, then 95 points MIGHT get into the playoffs. Personally, I think it is going to take 97 points and potentially 99 points. That’s 5 or 6 more wins, none of which can come from the OTL column.
None of our guys will take home any hardware although, Jordan Staal and Jaccob Slavin will get votes for the Selke and the Norris resecively.